Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Xylthixlm]

I will vote for whoever Guardian votes for as long as it's Adel.

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Votecount #37

ChaosOmega - 2 (Erg0, Oman)

Oman - 1 (Incognito)

Not voting - 6 (Matt_S, ChaosOmega, Xylthixlm, Patrick, Jitsu, Adel)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
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[Adel]

@um, yeah. I think it will result in more nailed scum than the alternative.

[Incognito]

The only people I would consider lynching today are Oman and Guardian^2. Adel's a possibility also because of this: This thread.

It's really messing with my mind.

[Adel]

heh. you're lost in the foam my friend.

~~~

discordian algorithm is my alt

~~~

Did you know that I've claimed scum as town before?

[Erg0]

@um, yeah. I think it will result in more nailed scum than the alternative.

Exactly how dumb do you think Guardian is?

Also, let's not bring Mafia Discussion into this.

[Incognito]

Did you know that I've claimed scum as town before?

And that's the only thing that's preventing me from declaring you as scum. Do you remember that I was in the very

game

with you when you claimed scum as town before? You claimed I was your scum buddy and you were town while I was scum. I found it kinda hilarious.

[Xylthixlm]

Did you know that I've claimed scum as town before?

I can't imagine a situation where that isn't a violation of the "Play to win the game" rule.

[Guardian]

I've re-skimmed the thread, I am going to re-read in detail soon to see if my initial impressions hold up. After that, I'm going to try and describe them very clearly and carefully; from my own pre-replacing point of view you guys deserve some convincing if you're to lynch someone other than me today.

One thing I ask in the meanwhile: while I'm not sure there is much I can do to explain C_O's actions, as I am not C_O, are there major points of contention other than the fact I'm a cop (a cop with a guilty on Guardian^1, nonetheless)? If so, I'd appreciate that those be brought up -- even just saying "my thoughts in post X still stand".

About me being a cop -- I concede that it is a very odd mini normal to have three investigative roles, especially for vollkan's first. The only thing I can say is that all of them are limited, and mine may be completely ineffectual. One good reason for letting me live is that I'll be alive with another result tomorrow, unless the scum decide they want to piss away a very plausible lynch.

Anyhow, I'll try and get to that re-read, hopefully within the week.

[Erg0]

Xyl: to what extent would you say that your dislike of Adel in this game is based on policy?

[Xylthixlm]

"Dislike" is the wrong word. But to answer the question, I think that Adel is more likely to be scum than anyone other than ChaosOmega/Guardian (not policy), and I don't accept metagame defenses that allow people to get away with always being scummy (policy).

[Erg0]

I don't mean to imply that you dislike Adel personally, just that you dislike her play. Do you feel this is too strong a term?

[Erg0]

One thing I ask in the meanwhile: while I'm not sure there is much I can do to explain C_O's actions, as I am not C_O, are there major points of contention other than the fact I'm a cop (a cop with a guilty on Guardian^1, nonetheless)? If so, I'd appreciate that those be brought up -- even just saying "my thoughts in post X still stand".

The other major points are CO's hardcore lurking on day 1 (consistent with his scum meta), along with the incredibly poorly timed cop claim at the last possible moment on day 1.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm more annoyed at the rest of the town for letting her get away with such a BS defense. But you're right, I dislike her play.

[Adel]

hmph, I never felt that I was a scummy player, I just take risks sometimes.

[Adel]

anyhoo, this post totally doesn't sound sincere now...

The question is not whether someone does something as both town and scum. The question is whether someone does something

equally often

as town and scum.

Barring evidence that Adel does, in fact, do the same number of stupid gambits in every game regardless of alignment, I think I'm entirely justified in taking stupid gambits as scumtells.

r u scumz?

[Erg0]

hmph, I never felt that I was a scummy player, I just take risks sometimes.

Whilst my highly sophisticated BS filter prevents me from seeing you as auto-scum, I can definitely see why Xyl thinks you're scummy here. When you say that you "take risks", do you mean that you perform actions that risk causing your lynch? If so, I'd say this is the very definition of playing scummily.

[Xylthixlm]

Oh come on. First Adel says opie is scum (262, 374). Then she backtracks day 2 and says that she picked opie randomly because a random lynch is better than letting the town choose a lynch (756, 783). However, if that's true, then her vote hopping day 1 makes no sense! So the only explanation is that she's lying

again

, but people are letting her slide on it because she lies as town. How many times are you going to let her get away with saying "I didn't really mean that"? Most players wouldn't even get away with it

once

.

[Adel]

Oh come on. First Adel says opie is scum (262, 374). Then she backtracks day 2 and says that she picked opie randomly because a random lynch is better than letting the town choose a lynch (756, 783). However, if that's true, then her vote hopping day 1 makes no sense! So the only explanation is that she's lying

again

, but people are letting her slide on it because she lies as town. How many times are you going to let her get away with saying "I didn't really mean that"? Most players wouldn't even get away with it

once

.

The reason a totally random lynch day 1 is a bad idea is that it provide no information for a later informed lynch. I spent day 1 generating information.

I don't think I will be quite as easily to lynch as you currently suspect. And just to fuck with you head a little more, please take a look at this page which serves as an example of me applying information.

[Jitsu]

I am specifically going to wait to comment on Adel's post 923 until after Guardian has posted his thoughts (especially who he thinks today's play is) and Adel has reacted to them.

Anyhow, I'll try and get to that re-read, hopefully within the week.

I don't like this comment. I really hope you aren't trying to stall here. If you really are an innocent cop, you have a vested interest in saving yourself to benefit the town. I want to see your comments sooner, rather than later. A player of your caliber who is already familiar with the game and has finished skimming it should be able to get a re-read done and comments posted within the week.

Since ChaosOmega never said much, getting real comments on the game from someone assuming his role should be enlightening. In short: At this point, Guardian, the game is largely waiting on you.

[Guardian]

Jitsu chill out. I've just gotten in the habit of always saying try, etc., because people have the ridiculous and annoying tendency of finding you suspicious when you don't get to something when you said you would, which for me is almost always because of IRL reasons and rarely for alignment.

Stalling would be horrible play as scum here; I'm an obvious fall back lynch, and the impetus is on me to show otherwise. If I stalled to near deadline I'd expect to be lynched.

Anyways, my defense and then analysis should come today, unless things pop up.

[Guardian]

Ah forgot to say -- I agree heartily with your waiting on me and not responding to Adel. I already fear that people will say "Guardian only said X because we said Y" -- so stopping yourself from poisoning the well, so to speak, is a good thing.

[Jitsu]

Jitsu chill out. I've just gotten in the habit of always saying try, etc., because people have the ridiculous and annoying tendency of finding you suspicious when you don't get to something when you said you would, which for me is almost always because of IRL reasons and rarely for alignment.

Stalling would be horrible play as scum here; I'm an obvious fall back lynch, and the impetus is on me to show otherwise. If I stalled to near deadline I'd expect to be lynched.

Anyways, my defense and then analysis should come today, unless things pop up.

I wasn't trying to be an ass. I'm sorry if it sounded that way.

I don't want you to rush your comments -- I want them to be accurate, and as detailed as possible. If it takes you a few more days, I'm fine with that, but I don't think asking for them this week is unreasonable. In my opinion, waiting until near deadline to potentially lynch you for stalling is too long, because I think people will still want to discuss your comments, and that will take some time.

Some of this isn't your fault. If ChaosOmega had not been lurking to the degree he did, you might not be on such a short leash right now.

[Patrick]

I'm on iffy internet access, just as a heads up.

One thing I ask in the meanwhile: while I'm not sure there is much I can do to explain C_O's actions, as I am not C_O, are there major points of contention other than the fact I'm a cop (a cop with a guilty on Guardian^1, nonetheless)? If so, I'd appreciate that those be brought up -- even just saying "my thoughts in post X still stand".

My comments in Post 551 still stand. There's also the timing of the claim as Erg0 pointed out, which is consistent with scum just wanting to confuse us at the last minute (which might I spose indicate he's mafia and not SK), and the fact that his silence today is consistent with scum who's given up, whereas a cop would be more likely to try and defend themselves, and give us their suspicions. I realise much of this can't really be explained by you, but I find it pretty damning overall, together with the fact that the claim doesn't fit well into the setup as we know it.

I just want to point out that Oman is still doing next to nothing at this point, and certainly hasn't answered the many questions put to him by Incognito. Oman remains my clear second suspect, and more suspicious than Adel by a reasonable degree, in my opinion. There are a few things I have to say regarding Adel's post 923, but I'll follow Jitsu's example here and await Guardian's thoughts.

[Guardian]

Before I make a post attacking people, I want to briefly respond to what Erg0 referenced as, and what I too see as, the main points about C_O being scummy. I hope they cover most of Patrick's thoughts as well, they seem to overlap nicely.

I'm not sure what I can say about C_O posting infrequently and without much substance. Those are just scummy things to do, and I can't defend them. However, someone posited that that was consistent with his scum meta -- is it inconsitent with his town meta? He might just always be a scummy lurker.

Then there is the subject of the manner in which he claimed. Really, I can't fault him for that. Checking in and claiming seems like a reasonable thing to do, as was not claiming until the last possible moment. Until a couple of hours before deadline, it seemed that he would not have to claim -- and no one, especially power roles, should claim unless they have to. I don't think that is a legitimate reason to find me suspicious. I myself, as a Watcher, tried hard not to claim, and made sure I was on near deadline in case I'd have had to.

As for why he left the game and needed replacement -- I don't know the answer. I think the mod said the timer on his prod expired, right? His being replaced might have little to do with the in game situation, considering that. I don't think it is fair to assume that he left because he was being attacked. Even if he left because he was being attacked, I've seen players do that as town before. I don't think his exit is nearly as suspicious as his play day 1.

Lastly, in terms of the plausibility of my role... well I find it fairly implausible, and I'm not going to lie about that. If I didn't get the PM from vollkan, I'd still be very, very skeptical of it myself. I hope my town-ness shines through and/or I convince you there are better options. All I can say is that I am a cop, and that a major benefit of leaving me around is that I'm a power role that won't likely be night killed; if I am insane (guilty=innocent, and vice versa), I might be useful just yet.

[Guardian]

Alright, I've looked at the thread more closely, and it has reaffirmed my confidence in my top three suspects. I've spent some time refining and condensing this post, so I hope my reasoning is clear. To save you from scrolling down, my suspects are Matt_S, Adel, and Oman. I find Matt_S the most scummy of the bunch by a fair margin, but they all are above everyone else for me. I'm not tied to lynching him, if you guys feel that one of the others is better, but I do think he is definitely the most scummy. Really I'm not tied to the prospect of lynching or not lynching anyone though; show me a good case and I'll show you a vote.

Matt_S

My reason for being suspicious of Matt_S are that he has been largely skulking around and doing things that are traditional tells for newer players. His breadbasket of FoS's in post 14, for example, strikes me as someone who doesn't have a good reason to be suspicious of any of those players looking to see which suspicion will catch on. 18, also, fits this pattern; he retracts his FoSes that didn't catch, and tries a new tact. These are a few more examples that fit into a larger pattern of play that seems to be consensus driven and geared towards generating suspicion of everyone, going with the flow, and not wanting to offend anyone into being suspicious of him. I encourage others to read Matt_S's posts; there is nothing so nearly as explicit as Adel's madness, but I think the pattern does indicate ulterior motives, and very strongly so.

Adel

Adel is a tricky case. I haven't had many tries at discerning her alignment; like she said, almost every game I've been in with her I've been scum, I guess she's seen my scum hunting skills from reading other games I am in, if that isn't another gambit. I have her second and not over and above first because ignoring meta is silly, but for any player other than Adel she would be my #1 right now. Adel is messed up, but some of her play just doesn't seem like something a townie would do. I

believed

her about opie, and that was just a lie to eliminate a player of her choosing. That disturbs me greatly. As has been brought up, her waving back and forth an voting me or opie is largely inconsistent with her claimed plan to just lynch opie. Also, as Jitsu I believe brought up, she hasn't claimed what, if any, explicit information she's derived from this play. That troubles me, too, in terms of believing her. Even if she is telling the truth, her action seems, at first glance, to be morelikely to be scum motivated than town motivated. Picking what turned out to be a pro-town player and lynching him day one, ignoring any reasoning or cases, seems like an anti-town thing to do. We have no guarantee she picked at random, or that she is telling the truth -- both troubling propositions.

Also, don't forget her "I know Guardian is town" gambit that she backed down from. It almost ended up forcing me to claim yesterday, and possibly ended up getting me killed, reading back through my own posts it is apparent to me that I was a power role. And wasn't that gambit supposed to be a scum hunting trick? How well did that work out? If it was a scum hunting trick, and she was trying to use it to determine my alignment and found me scummy day one, how is she really being truthful about the opie lynch?

In addition, I have a couple of problems with her play today. First, her switch to Oman and back to C_O distinctly disturbs me, it looks like she is scum hunting and then allows her to switch back to the obvious town-lynch (me). Now, I replace in, and she suddenly is willing to let me slide for a day? Is it really because she thinks I can find scum, or is it rather because she is afraid of calling for votes on me when I'm here to defend rather than C_O? Also, she's greatly shifted her stance on my role and Oman. Look at the contrast between 116, where she finds Oman-scum and me-scum to be probably mutually exclusive (25% chance), and 128, where she says explicitly we are definitely not.

The last major thing that has troubled me about Adel's play is her fixation with the vig. vs. SK thing. It makes me wonder if even Adel, the master of gambits and deceit, is suffering from a guilty conscience. Thinking about her as an SK is particularly troubling considering her random selection of a player other than herself to lynch day one. From an SK's perspective, any lynch other than them day one is a great deal, and her ploy, even if she is telling the truth about

what

she was doing, could be an elaborate way to absolve herself of all responsibility for her actions.

I'm a bit baffled about Adel. I really agree with Xyl to a large extent; allowing all players to get away with playing like Adel has played this game would be absolutely horrible for the meta. I am more of a pragmatist than an idealist than Xyl -- I think we should take the ridiculous meta into account -- but again, only to an extent. Especially when, as Adel has in my opinion, actively hurt the town with her gambits, she definitely merits consideration for being lynched.

Oman

My suspicion of Oman comes from his "follow Adel" attitude and general lack of substance day 1, in addition to some posts indicative of scum motivation today. He blindly followed Adel in lynching opie day 1, and just now, though he claims to not have been, seemed to have been trying to deflect some blame to her. Also, he says he went with the opie wagon because he was getting town reads off Adel; because he trusted her. Trusting that she is town doesn't equate to trusting that she is right about opie being scum. Even if you did trust her implicitly, there was no room for disagreement, Oman? His welcome post to me "hi guardian, die guardian" isn't indicative to me of someone interested in scum hunting, it is indicative to me of someone who'd love to get this day over with right about

now

, so attention doesn't shift back to him. Like with Matt_S, I encourage people to read through his posts and see if they notice the same things I notice (click on their names at the "Display posts from previous:" box at the bottom of the page).

vote: Matt_S

FOS: Adel, Oman

If anything is unclear, or you'd like me to try and find and analyze more examples for Matt_S and Oman, let me know. Any questions you might have of me, I am here to answer them.