Newbie 2124 - Postgame

[Alianna]

Pagetop!

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Talking to you is like talking to a wall. Like, if you are town you are handing this to geek on a plate because you won't adapt to the information.

Interesting accusation. I'm the only one actually parsing through information, though.

Yesterday, me, sheep and geek /all/ said an elimination would be preferable to no lim. You then used it as a point to attack me? Sheep said a self vote was preferable, and sheep was town.

sheepsaysmeep is wrong, too. In fact, it was one of reasons I kept my vote on sheep - the willingness to self-vote seemed too over-the-top to me.

You won't find anything positive in my iso if you go into it expecting to only see bad stuff. Read the interactions with sheep yesterday and tell me that isn't solving?

Come ask me questions is just what I say. It's nai, but like...you didn't do it .

I haven't run your Day 3 iso yet; and I think I've been pretty objective so far as to the analysis I've done so far. And if you want a question, here's one - what have you done that makes me want to town read you?

You can't give me a reason /why/ I unvoted a mislim that was about to happen and voted my 'buddy': just like with the numbers for no limming yesterday, there's no why.

More on this in a dedicated post.

I'm not talking about day two anymore: it was 36 hours and around 15 of them were overnight for me.

That's fine. I'm not holding it against you. Much.

If you are town, look again. If you are scum, it certainly explains why you have no /why/ for any of your points against me: nothing about your pushes on me feel natural or like they have a point behind them. You really committed to the pc push and I'm pretty convinced it was because he was on to you day one.

Odd defense, and not even wholly accurate. I have a lot of good points against you. Also, PC's opening on Day 2 was against sheepsaysmeep, so why would I go for the PC push when I could just let two towns fight each and then scumread the surviving one as town?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

You can't give me a reason /why/ I unvoted a mislim that was about to happen and voted my 'buddy': just like with the numbers for no limming yesterday, there's no why.

... I mean, I can. You just mocked it the last time I gave it. Which you shouldn't have done, by the way, because now I'm looking at it again and I'm realizing something very important. Let's take a look, shall we?

First step: The mislim was dead when you unvoted, so don't even bother trying to claim you unvoted a mislim. McEndu had four votes at one point, but (and I'm just realizing this now, shame on me) - you unvoted when he was at 3 votes.

Political Clout

unvoted first, but refused to hammer BBmolla, which is why I suspected him. But he did it first at 509, whereas yours came at 533. Part of what killed the wagon is CCGeek's 455 - and sure, I get it's good play for scum to counter wagon the town wagon, even on the scum, to look good. But that was a dedicated attempt to try and just anti-wagon McEndu and that is a terrible play for a scum.


Second step: You voted a few moments later at 548, but at that point, I think that it was very likely BBmolla gets eliminated regardless of whether you voted for him or not - sheepsaysmeep is neutral on these wagons as well and certainly wouldn't have hammered, but might have taken a position as the E-1 slot, or alternatively PC would have. You are very neutral about this wagon (551,551) in these posts. Also, as I've said before, this is a calculated gamble on your part - hammering is a risky move, after all and with a vague PR claim, maybe BBmolla survives the day anyway and people jump to the iamveryhappy wagon you proposed (570). But even if we don't assume that, what you did is simply a bus-for-town cred. That's the why. The truth is, BBmolla was more than likely to be eliminated, and you just salvaged the best of a bad situation.

Is that not a reasonable reason?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Also, re: my read on geek, again, you aren't respondong to what I'm saying. I do, basically, tr geek, but I feel like you are missing the 'circumstantial'' evidence against him that even he is aware of, that's making me paranoid. I've spoken about it: I feel like me and sheep were the only people to point it out.

I can't really find evidence of you doing this, except for this one quote below.

Honestly I think the hiep pr was just luck? I think it's the iavh kill that makes me Sus of geek but it could be wifom.

I meant yesterdaysnflash wagon! I am well aware that I pushed for a flash wagon on happy, I found the dude fairly anti!town which makes the kill weirder?

@CCGeek: Where are you at, right now?

[CCGeek]

OH NOES THIRD PROD OOP

@CT's last post: I'm leaning Bella rn. Gonna read game from start today evening.

[Bellaphant]

How's the read going?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Okay, last batch of ISOs, the Day 3 iso.

CCGeek: Opens with the scumputer and votes me. This is ... super weird. I don't even know if I can categorize this as town or scum. He then pulls a bus-for-towncred accusation on me, and this turns into a discussion, where CCGeek admits that I have a point and unvotes from me based on my logic. That's definitely town-like behavior, but a hypothetical scum!CCGeek can afford town-like behavior if the elimination pool is between myself and sheepsaysmeep. CCGeek reads the writing on the wall if sheepsaysmeep flips green and predicts the elo, noting he's unsure how to solve it, which is consistent with his prior actions. Ends up not voting at all, because he missed Bellaphant's hammer.

Analysis: No hammer this time around, and hypothetical scum!CCGeek could have pulled one on me (while appearing consistent) to go into elo with Bellaphant and sheepsaysmeep. Could have, but likely wouldn't - Bellaphant supports tr sheepsaysmeep and double-hammering green in a row isn't great scum play, even if sheepsaysmeep has more of a scumread argument (re: voting history, why I voted for him D3 alongside McEndu.)

Bellaphant: Initially for sheepsaysmeep elimination. Is annoyed that everyone has default reading them as 'compromise lim pool'. Attempts to get reads. All of this isn't scummy actions. However, Bellaphant claims they wouldn't have bussed BBmolla and the McEndu wagon would have happened if they stayed on. This is false, see my previous post about it, but this doesn't mean scum, it would be town trying to prove they're town with a bit of massaging of the facts. Notes that they found iamveryhappy to be anti!town, thus making the kill weird, but 1) the assumption was that it was off a soft-read for pr and 2) WIFOM.

Notes at 822 that I'm the preferred lim because of my lack of interaction and argument with CCGeek. (Note: CCGeek does not scumread after this, only Bellaphant does.) Votes me at 832 a literal minute after sheepsaysmeep's vote at 830. Hammers in 858 under the justification that 'mislim>no lim' (which is true, as long as it isn't yourself, by the way.

Analysis: Bellaphant finds my elimination preferable to sheepsaysmeep, but doesn't give a reason why they switch their read from sheepsaysmeep to me (or why they never voted sheepsaysmeep). Does this make sense for scum!Bellaphant? Absolutely, sheepsaysmeep is a much scummier target for CCGeek than me. Does this make sense for town!Bellaphant? Arguably, yes - its possible that they scumread me.

Overall: Day 3 is, unsurprisingly a wash. There's no action which is unmistakably scum and every move is WIFOM-able given the circumstances.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

How's the read going?

Mine's pretty much done. I can ISO Day 4, but I don't think there's going to be anything super useful there.

How's your reads going?

[CCGeek]

I successfully went through Day 1

Won't have the time to finish up my wall today, will do it and post tomorrow tho.

Paranoia has been acting up.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I successfully went through Day 1

Won't have the time to finish up my wall today, will do it and post tomorrow tho.

Paranoia has been acting up.

Okay, that's good. Take your time, (and I really don't mean to rush you), but keep in mind we have 25 hours to vote; and if we don't the mafia wins by default.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

By the way, @Bellaphant, you're getting voting by me in about eighteen hours if you don't start interacting with the endgame state. Reacting to my reads is fine, but you've done nothing by yourself for solving this game state. If you just want to discuss your my scum read on you, then please start with my assertion that you didn't actually unvote a mislim that was about to happen.

Granted, CCGeek's not much better when it comes to posting analysis of prior days, but he at least mentioned that he's going through ISOs.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Alright, Bellaphant, I gave you your time. 18 hours is plenty, and we need to get this day moving before time is up.

Here are my points:

• Bellaphant lied about unvoting from a town wagon about to lim, the Day 1 McEndu wagon was at E-2 when Bellaphant unvoted and was losing steam

• CCGeek was the largest proponent against the McEndu wagon when it first started gathering steam and went directly for BBmolla

• Bellaphant's Day 2 inactivity is scum-like behavior (albeit not a great modifier, given how short the Day was so is insufficient to condemn on its own)

• CCGeek's most scum-like action is the hammer on Day 2 of Political Clout, though personally I feel this was a justified hammer.

• Bellaphant's wagon switch on Day 3 with insufficient explanation, though any further reads are WIFOM

• Bellaphant's Day 4 activity is reactive activity and almost nothing of active scumreading or analysis, and we currently have under 10 hours left.

In short succinct summation - once again,

alea iacta est

.
VOTE: Bellaphant

[CCGeek]

Back from school

I shall go through D2 and 3 and see how my D1 points match up (i still suck at solving fr)

where in god's name is bella tho

[ChicagoTypewriter]

where in god's name is bella tho

Legitimately no idea. Possibly lurking in the hopes the vote doesn't go through today, though I would have thought my vote would have drawn them out.

Also, nice to see that I was right and you aren't scum.

[CCGeek]

rereading d1 and doing livethoughtdumps, i hope thread won't mind because game is on last day anyway

[CCGeek]

molla's opening post alone makes me want to vote bella here

[CCGeek]

Re : reads progressing, I tend to read games backwards if I'm behind, to see that logical change from one idea to another.

Pc is probably town? Like, they can be my 'town for day one' tr

- look on bella in current scenario, also have you applied this method to this game?

[CCGeek]

- as in minus ^

[CCGeek]

it's funny how very early on it's molla who engaged more out of the other two players here rn

[CCGeek]

i sometimes look at my old walls from the gamestart phase at last day i wonder how the hell i had the energy to do those

[CCGeek]

oh Bella actually says molla's thoughts make sense in D1, missed that somehow

[CCGeek]

looking back ct vs pc actually reads TvT

[Alianna]

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[Alianna]

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[Alianna]

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