Mini 811: Foggy Londontown Mafia - Over!

[kikuchiyo]

Post 805. Pre-emptive reasoning to lynhc an sk over mafia. I'm gonna shake things up here and

Vote: SerialClergyman

[iamausername]

Post 512. I've addressed that a couple of times now. You may not like my explanation of what I meant, but I can't give you another one. I know what I meant. I think it was clear, and I think my subsequent explanation was equally clear.

It was perfectly clear. You wanted to make very sure that everybody knew you

weren't

concerned about looking bad, which is pretty much something you would only do if you actually

were

concerned about looking bad.

Post 544. This is not a "defense" in any sense of the word that I'm familiar with, so it can't actually be a

tu quoque

defense.

Having looked up 'tu quoque', I don't think that's what I was talking about at all. As I understand it, tu quoque is accusing your attacker of doing the same thing he is accusing you of. I was talking about this:

Anyway, right now there are six people by my count who aren't voting for ThAdmiral, not including ThAdmiral himself. Maybe you should start browbeating some of them.

It's not accusing your attacker of doing the same thing as you, it's accusing a bunch of other people of doing it and suggesting he should be attacking them instead of you.

It does have the same problem as a tu quoque defence though, in that in both cases, you are tacitly agreeing that the accuser has a completely valid point against you.

Post 581. Well, not "no reason at all." I was swayed by kikuchiyo's argument in 579. As I said.

I said "no reason but the fact that he is not FC", not "no reason at all". And since the kiku argument in question deals entirely with reasons not to lynch FC, and not at all with reasons to lynch Lowell, thanks for proving my point, I guess.

Posts 651 and 658. At that point, dank wasn't on the Tenchi bandwagon (although as I pointed out later, he was certainly cheerleading for it). Since I was talking about the people who were voting for Tenchi vs. the people who weren't, I couldn't very well have put dank into the first category.

No, you weren't talking about "people who were voting Tenchi", you were talking about "people who were accusing Tenchi of lurking during the time he had said he'd be away".

People who fit into that group, at the time of your post: dank
People you put into that group, in your post: kiku

You were attributing dank's arguments to someone else entirely, and then calling that person scummy for using those arguments.

Post 699. I still stand by my case here. Maybe I quoted too many "attacking" posts but there are cleary

two

"buddying" posts there, not one: #20 and #56. With at least one "attacking" post before, in between, and after them, I think I'm justified in calling this behavior "alternating." Also, you'll note that his shifting attitude toward kikuchiyo was not my only reason for voting for him.

Fair enough, I did miss the second buddying post. But, yes, I'm aware that there was another reason in that post. I found that reason to be poor as well, and thus found the case as a whole to be lacking.

Oh, and for 631. As of this writing I have completed exactly one game of mafia, Newbie 707. I was in Mini 777 and had to replace out after about a week due to illness. Those games and this one are the only games of mafia I have ever played anywhere, online or face-to-face. Not playing the newbie card here, just setting the facts straight.

kiku can correct me if I'm wrong here, but I believe she's only completed two newbie games at this point. dank and SC can feel free to chime in with their experience level too.

Besides, even if you'd never played mafia before, it would

still

a copout. People presented reasons for and against lynching a claimed hider. If you didn't understand those arguments, why wouldn't you ask for clarification? If you didn't know exactly what a hider is, why wouldn't you look it up? Inexperience is no excuse for completely ignoring the issue. I think you didn't want to get involved because you didn't want to draw attention to yourself.

[iamausername]

Post 805. Pre-emptive reasoning to lynhc an sk over mafia. I'm gonna shake things up here and

Vote: SerialClergyman

How is this worse than everyone else who argued for lynching the SK?

How does it supercede all the evidence I just presented against the dank/Gwyn team?

[DTMaster]

Sorry guys, I put this game on the back burner and currently compling a post in my g-mail. I'm quite interested to see dank's response. Since I didn't want to be totally useless I'll post what I have for now and continue on with it when I get more time.

Part 1:

@iam
I like your case and it was a good read. Here are some general comments.

1. I think you skipped my weird actions at the end, yes I did find qwints' scummy and put him at L-1 then, unvoted and then hammered. It's biased in supporting me (which thanks :3) but it should still be there for a more rounded consideration.

2. 261 dank's supports the mason claim, which is odd since he is sniping at the two of them. It looks really scummy since it's really self contradictory that he doesn't drop the issue.

3. Danks 537: He comments that we might be rushing with the Nadroj/Gwyn wagon to force a mislynch but when I read the vote countbefore and after I see few things:

a. The wagon is losing ground which makes danks look sensitive about the issue. I see though that Gwyn/Nad did have the closest wagon going in the before link, before Lowell's case got the spotlight.

b. If a quick lynch happened it would be much more revealing of the scum players. Township would make sure the lynch doesn't go through without the full discussion unless the person was that obviously scum.

----

Sorry didn't get far since the game was in delay for so long I forgot to check (focused on my other games :<)

Now with the more recent postings I go:

1. WTF Kiku? What are your thoughts on Iam's post. This is so OOC of you to suddenly vote SC it makes no sense. Outline your case please.

2. SC you make a good point about the mass claim, would you be more comfortable if dank and Gwyn claimed first though? At the moment they are the most suspicious people and if they claimed last they wouldn't be able to put forward a false claim to a town PR. (of course if the town PR lied with a VT claim... then ... well let's not go down this thought route).

[DTMaster]

EBWOP: I should say its suddenly vote for SC based on the context of the current discussion.

[iamausername]

Yeah, I'll admit that even though I started out trying to be fair and balanced, but by then end of it, confirmation bias had totally set in.

This fact doesn't particularly bother me.

[DTMaster]

No probs, which is why there is town discussion on these things. :3

[SerialClergyman]

Hard to type on phone so this will be brief.

Gwyn - do you think that you've adequately addressed the case against you with your objections? Do you think dank is scummy?

kiku, I don't think you're voted because it's not bolded, but I'd appreciate it if you held off during discussion anyway, we're in lylo and I do not want to risk getting lynched by a quick group of votes.

I stand by much of what I said in that post. Before we knew qwints was an SK, he could have been mafia and it was very risky to let him live. Having said that, now that we know he was definiteily an SK all along, the mafia would have known that and so it's very unlikely they would have opposed his lynch.

In short - there were both town and scum motivations for wanting the lynch of qwints to go ahead. There were ONLY town motivations for wanting to stop the lynch of qwints (because scum knew he'd flip SK). Hence I am prepared to clear you and iam for now.

But aside from that, why me out of everyone who was for the SK lynch? And what is it about my play that makes you oscillate between town and scum on me?

DTMaster, I don't think a lylo power role claim would stop me from voting someone unless it was extremely convincing/well breadcrumbed. Thus I'm not hugely convinced that it's worth even getting the top suspects to claim first. I'm not against the idea, but I'm not sure what good it will do eithr (although I suppose there's a small chance of counter-claims.) Besides - the issue wasn't the order of the claim, it was if there's a massclaim we'll out any power role, so if we have a cop or a watcher or the like they'll be killed and unable to investigate or watch the likely scumbuddy of whoever we lynch.

Where is dank? Wasn't he supposed to be back a couple of days ago?

[DTMaster]

@SC

It was the 23rd. Give him a couple of days from today to recover and such.

Also if the Cop/Tracker/etc... has a list of innocents it might help narrow down our search. Unless the targets all died though, then it'll be silly. But I see your point, outing the last resort PR would be bad if it didn't catch the scumbuddies.

(As a side note: Would that make town overpowered to have an additional investigation role when we had lovers, a hider and a doc confirmed already?)

[SerialClergyman]

If someone has a result that makes this next choice easier, they must claim, especially if it looks like we're on the wrong track. It's lylo - we simply ahve to lynch correctly today and probably tomorrow.

We've had 2 lynches and it's lylo, and we got an anti-town role in one of the lynches! It's hardly screamingly unfair to have another PR somewhere in the mix.

[SerialClergyman]

Decided to do a small analysis of the wagons in the game to see what I could determine. If you feel I've missed something (I'm sure I'll miss something in the cases section) let me know.

1) I believe the lynch of FC was more likely to be pro-town than the lynch of Lowell. You had to be for lynching a claimed role that scum could easily kill and against a claimed role that would give information each night that you couldn't kill (unless you guessed the hidee correctly.) Scum would of course know that both roles were legit and so had a natural temptation to go for the one that was more dangerous and much harder to knock off otherwise.

Of those alive,

SC, Iam and DTMaster

were on the FC lynch.

dank, Gwyn and kiku

were on the Lowell lynch.

2) I believe that those who were against lynching qwints are much more likely to be town. As I said above, there are town reasons for voting qwints, but the scum knew he was an SK so had every motivation to get him killed and had no motivation to want him alive.

Of those alive,

Iam and kiku

were against lynching qwints.

dank, Gwyn, DTMaster and SC

were for the qwints lynch.

So wagon analysis fits the theory nicely. Possible confirmation bias, but the wagons are there in black and white, and the intepretation of them is pretty sound I think. The second wagon is a stronger tell than the first. Iam happened to be on the town side in both, so he's essentially confirmed to me. Kiku was on the important one, so she's good as confirmed to me. Of the remaining 4, I and Tenchi (DT's former ego) were on FC's wagon. The only people still alive on both anti-town wagons are dank and nadroj.

Going to bed. Hopefully dank will show up sometime soon.

[Gwynplaine]

Gwyn, do you think dank is scum? If so, who's his partner? If not, who is scum?

As you might have guessed, I had myself really sold on Qwints/Kikuchiyo at the end of Day Two. Qwints flipping SK rather than mafia really threw me for a loop there. I wouldn't be surprised at Dank/Kikuchiyo. They've spent a lot of time agreeing with each other all game, and yet I seem to recall they usually weren't voting for the same person.* I'm kind of taking the opposite view from SerialClergyman, in that I think scum would be careful

not

to be seen on the same bandwagon together too many times if they could help it. Also, Dank's the only person left alive that Kikuchiyo hasn't accused of being scum and/or voted for at some point.

*(I have a file on my other computer with just the votes from Day One and Day Two, which I was trying to use to get some kind of vote pattern analysis going earlier. If I get a chance later today I'll look at that and either quantify this statement or withdraw it. Right now, just looking at the vote counts that are in their own posts, they were voting the same person three times and different people 13 times. Excluding times that neither of them was voting, but including times that only one of them was voting. One of the times they were together was the final count of Day One, the Lowell lynch. That's probably not an unexpected ratio for two randomly-selected players, but given the fact that they seem to be in agreement so often in the discussion, I'd have expected to see their votes agreeing more often.)

---

I was talking about this:

Anyway, right now there are six people by my count who aren't voting for ThAdmiral, not including ThAdmiral himself. Maybe you should start browbeating some of them.

Oh. I thought you were talking about this:

Are you saying I should be more like you and Nikanor, then, and post mostly one-liners with little content?

But anyway, the bit you were talking about

still

isn't a "defense" in any sense of the word. It's nothing to do with whether I'm scum or not, it's about SerialClergyman trying to pressure me into hammering the claimed doctor. I'm telling him to peddle his case elsewhere, because I'm not buying it. That's not a "defense", and it's certainly not acknowledging a "valid point" against me.

No, you weren't talking about "people who were voting Tenchi"

Don't lie to me about what I wrote. In Post 651:

Qwints is

voting

him for commenting about the night results, as far as I can see, which I always thought was a pretty flimsy "scum tell." And then kikuchiyo

votes

him for lurking

In Post 658:

You phrase this as if

voting

for Tenchi were the default position and the rest of us had made a conscious decision not to do so. In fact, the burden of proof lies on you and/or qwints to convince us why we should

vote

for him.

I goddamn well

was

talking about voting. That's why the words

vote

and

voting

appear in prominent positions in each post.

Having said that, I absolutely agree that dank's cheerleading for the Tenchi wagon while not actually riding on it was suspicious. I think I even said so, in 677. (And yes, before you reply to that, I know that you and SerialClergyman had pointed it out earlier.)

---

Gwyn - do you think that you've adequately addressed the case against you with your objections? Do you think dank is scummy?

Pretty much, yeah. And yeah, pretty much.

[DTMaster]

I'm at work and my break is running out so quick thoughts only:

@SC

(This is useless setup sepeculation but considering what we had before day 1 blew it up, we had a strong team of hider and doc, and confirmed lovers... if they were used properly)

You wagon analysis would points to the danks/gwyn team.

@Gywn

Wait you were surprised Qwints flipped SK? Even with the vig claim that qwints did and he admitted to targeting the doc, and the fact that we speculated about werewolves being part of the setup, you still suspected the Kiku/Qwints team? (Though I'm surprised the wolves went after the mason/lover pair)

[SerialClergyman]

Gwyn - I would say that ~70% of the case against dank is his very suspicious interaction with you specifically. Things like his failure to vote you on day 1 after the claim - the only way I can explain that is if he is scum, and more specifically, scum with you. Same with his attacks on you that also included a shopping list of how to get the voteo ff you and look better - the only way that makes sense is if you're both scum together. There's a lot of reason to be suspicious of dank/gwyn, but not much to be suspicious of dank/???

So given you're claiming not to be his partner, why do you think he's scum?

[kikuchiyo]

Sorry, the unbold was a bit of a gambit. I just hate that SC stayed on the sk wagon yesterday but building a case against him is difficult. I'm afraid that if he's scum then he's certainly going to win. I have him partnered with DTM. I don't like the way that SC uses my absence from the sk wagon as proof of my towniness and yet justified lynching the sk from a town perspective himself. The aforementioned post just rubs me the wrong way.

Honestly, though, I think the Gwyn/Dank theory has more than enough evidence to move forward. I would prefer Gwyn first, but if everyone wants Dank I won't stand in the way. I realize I have done some defending of Dank, so make what you want of it. Time has been tight for me with hubby starting school so I apologize for my lack of content. If votes don't start flying I will try to get something up later this week in regards to iso reads.

[SerialClergyman]

Ah. Well that explains it somewhat. Probably the not bolding thing works better if you needed three to lynch instead of four.

I can't really address your concerns apart from saying that I'm in the same boat, if you or iam are scum I essentially can't win. But we have a strong theory with strong evidence, so take heart!

I was originally for voting Gwynn but his defence is actually not as bad as I thought it was (while still being wholly inadequate, at least he's trying to pick a few holes). Dank should have been back for a couple of days and hasn't said anything. I'm still waiting on gwyns reply and further discussion but at the moment I think dank has my vote. But as I've been saying, its probably a false dilemma, unless there's some massive new piece of evidence.

[kikuchiyo]

Mod: Is Dank due for a prod?

[iamausername]

I don't know if I can be bothered to wait much longer for dank. I certainly can't be bothered to wait for a replacement to catch up on the thread and inevitably have no way to answer for him. I think that would be a huge waste of time for everyone involved.

Gwyn - I would say that ~70% of the case against dank is his very suspicious interaction with you specifically. Things like his failure to vote you on day 1 after the claim - the only way I can explain that is if he is scum, and more specifically, scum with you. Same with his attacks on you that also included a shopping list of how to get the voteo ff you and look better - the only way that makes sense is if you're both scum together. There's a lot of reason to be suspicious of dank/gwyn, but not much to be suspicious of dank/???

So given you're claiming not to be his partner, why do you think he's scum?

Would like to hear Gwyn's answer to this, too.

[kikuchiyo]

Unfortunately, the search engine seems to be disabled so I can't find Dank's last activity. If his lurking isn't site wide I am fine with lynching him. If he is MIA then we should maybe ask for a replacement, although I don't see him partnered with anyone but Gwyn at this time. If DTM is scum then he is most likely scum with SC, but I am ready to start voting soon and I agree with Iam that waiting may be a waste of time. So hopefully the mod will resolve this issue and we won't have to make that choice.

[SerialClergyman]

Nah, I'd just string him up rather than replace. What's a replacement going to do at this point? They can't answer for him. Same thing happened in my last game.

But no point rushing either - we've given him a couple of weeks, we can give him a day or two more. Plus I do genuinely want Gwyn to answer my last question.

[SerialClergyman]

Hmm

Just did a google search of the site to double check if dank was around and it led me to meta highly toxic mafia where he played scum.

Was a good think to skim through - I noticed a few patterns.. he was conscious about not voting until it was very safe, makes a big deal about letting the full discussion of the town go through. He agrees a lot with other players' reasoning and posting.

On the other hand, he was also scum with Lowell, so maybe that is a point in his favour, as Lowell's meta was very similar, so maybe he voted Lowell thinking he was scum.

Or maybe he was worried about Lowell reading him better than other people cos they'd been scum together? I don't know.

Still - I think on the whole there's a lot of parallels.

Check it out.

[Gwynplaine]

Gwyn - I would say that ~70% of the case against dank is his very suspicious interaction with you specifically.

...

So given you're claiming not to be his partner, why do you think he's scum?

Yeah, I'm gonna need you to show me the math on your 70% figure. By my count, looking at Iamausername's big rehash posts, about half of Dank's posts that he points out are Dank's attacks on Hero and the "masons". Of the remainder, about half deal with him not voting for nadroj/me (and one is that he

did

vote for me on Day Two, which is a bit of Iam eating his cake and having it too), and the rest are his attacks on Far_Cry, feigning surprise at the presence of werewolves and then immediately correcting himself, campaigning against Tenchi without voting him, and other small inconsistencies. So the proportion that deals with me is closer to 25% than 70%. At least by my reckoning.

I can still agree with the other 75%. The biggies to me are: the whole Tenchi wagon thing, "Werewolves? What werewolves?" and "So the serial killer is a werewolf?" (812). I'm also (as I said) suspicious of his interaction with Kikuchiyo, but having reviewed the thread again I'm doubting whether anybody would be bold enough to tell their scum partner to "shut up and hammer."

---

Wait you were surprised Qwints flipped SK? Even with the vig claim that qwints did and he admitted to targeting the doc, and the fact that we speculated about werewolves being part of the setup, you still suspected the Kiku/Qwints team?

Yes. See my posts at the end of Day Two.

---

while still being wholly inadequate, at least he's trying to pick a few holes)

Where "picking a few holes" means "pointing out complete falsehoods."

---

On a general note, not only is Dank not around, I'm not sure our mod is either. Anybody heard from DrakeTheFake, or seen him posting elsewhere on the site lately?

---

Finally, and really apropos of nothing ...

I'm afraid that if he's scum then he's certainly going to win.

I'm in the same boat, if you or iam are scum I essentially can't win.

If it turns out that you two are the scum team, this exchange will be retrospectively hilarious.

[SerialClergyman]

Here's why you don't believe what you're saying about dank.

1) You don't offer a different scum partner (since you discredit your kiku read after she becomes essentially confirmed town). If you think he's scum, you need to have a theory about his scumpartner as well, because we're in lylo and it's not good enough to just go with someone who you think is vaguely scummy. You aren't trying to suss out scum at all, just distance yourself from dank.

2) You should be well aware that I didn't mean 70% of the QUOTES iam used were about dank + you, I meant that 70% of the CASE is constructed that way. 25% is rubbish - his interactions with you are his scummiest behaviour in my opinion. If you know that his refusal to vote you after unvoting FC wasn't motivated by protecting a scumbuddy, you can't think it was as suspicious as I do. Therefore if you're town, you're resting your whole theory on something like his werewolf slip, which seems pretty weak to risk your lylo case on.

3) You have the time to point out the irony of kiku and my exchange if we were both scum, but you don't have time to do some scumhunting, or make more valid points?

I am officially ready to get this done. It's been 3 days since dank said he'd be back and we've already waited for weeks. I'm as convinced as I'm going to be that the scumteam is dank/gwyn.

vote dank

[DraketheFake]

I will get a prod out to dank sometime by the end of Friday. I'll check other activity then, too. My access has been terrible lately, and will continue to not be great until this coming Tuesday. Sorry again folks for the inconvenience.

[kikuchiyo]

I'm game.

Vote: Dank