Open 850: Democrabilities (Postgame)

[MalcolmTucker]

Kind of spewing out thoughts a bit because this is a confusing place to be at in this point in the game. Scum doing a good job making me doubt myself/my reads here.

[Dunnstral]

I don't think Alianna is scum, and it seems the only case is that they are likely to be paired with me

[MalcolmTucker]

Furtive/Cat is a possibility I guess, my only issue is, would the two of them be as bold as to push Radical Rat as strongly as they did together?

[MalcolmTucker]

Cat's scumcase on Radical Rat could have been seen as opportunistic, but from what I can remember they had been pretty consistent on suspecting the slot before they properly cased them. Much as I didn't want to vote them out, the wagon on RR didn't feel all that opportunistic at the time.

[MalcolmTucker]

Dunn, my issue on Alianna with you is that they hinted at suspecting you in D2 and then never followed it through at all. Feels like they were very much hedging their bets there.

[Dunnstral]

But if I'm not scum, then is that not suspicious?

[MalcolmTucker]

I mean it's my issue in that I think it's why you could be teammates. It felt like Alianna was hedging their bets on you at a point when you could have been eliminated but then backed off when it became apparent Furtive and Radical Rat were preferable alternatives and they could feasibly jump onto the RR wagon.

[Dunnstral]

Why would Alianna want to eliminate me instead of two town being voted at deadline

How could I have been eliminated when nobody was voting me

[MalcolmTucker]

Why would Alianna want to eliminate me instead of two town being voted at deadline

How could I have been eliminated when nobody was voting me

That is not what I am saying. I am saying that Alianna was briefly suspicious of you, but never followed this up at all. This can be scummy - you were under a bit of heat for some of D2 and Alianna could have wanted to hedge their bets if you were teammates. But looking back through D1 seems like it may be somewhat unlikely given voting patterns.

[MalcolmTucker]

I think your responses this turn have been mostly reasonable for what it's worth - and I can't see you/Alianna as a team pushing so strongly for Cat to be tracked early on unless you're very, very confident that you can sway us all and win the game here. But it increasingly looks like a lot of stuff would have to align for that to end up being the case.

[Dunnstral]

Vote Count 2.1.2

furtiveglance (2*) Flea the Magician, Radical Rat
Radical Rat (2) Cat.jpeg, furtiveglance
Dunnstrall (1) MalcolmTucker

Not Voting (3) GoldfishFromtheMoon, Dunnstrall, Alianna

With 8 votes it takes 5* to make someone sleep with the fishes.
(expired on 2022-05-21 01:16:31)

VOTE: MalcolmTucker

Furtive digging in deeper I see.

Whats wrong with Dunn looking towards candidates?

I don't think looking towards other candidates is scummy in and of itself, but with less than a day left on the deadline, if you have two scumreads you should vote the one that actually has a chance of going through. The vanity vote was shady.

You are voting me actually, and my vote moves to you, and only then does Alianna say that it looks shady

What you are suggesting is that I was in danger of being eliminated here, and Alianna was preparing to bus me. I don't think that makes sense, especially since neither Alianna or I are voting the leading wagons there

[MalcolmTucker]

I don't think you were quite at this point of being in danger of elimination, just that a wagon could have feasibly formed had, say, Furtive been less keen on Radical Rat. With eight players it wouldn't have taken a huge amount for a wagon to start building had I been able to convince one or two other players to get on board with me.

[Dunnstral]

What you are saying was hedging bets was in response to something I did, though.

[MalcolmTucker]

I already thought Malcolm was town, and I still think Goldfish is town even though they the confirm is one-way.

That leaves [Alianna, Dunnstral, Cat.Jpeg].

I can see either Alianna or Cat being town, so Dunnstral is mafia in either scenario. I'll probably push Dunnstral today.

For when you're on Furtive - interested to hear any updated thoughts re this. Dunn/Cat could have been feasible aside from some early game squabbling, but Dunn's early track vote for Cat D3 doesn't strike me as particularly conductive for mafia. You'd think mafia would at least want to make an attempt to shift the track onto town, no? Unless mafia think it's advantageous to have one of their own tracked because it basically removes them from the elimination pool? That's the only way I could see them as a team here.

[furtiveglance]

@Goldie and anyone else who hasn’t voiced an answer to this yet

Who do you think is the scumteam?

It's Cat/Dunnstral. or it's You/Dunnstral. or You/Cat. or Goldfish/Malcolm (?).

This is all very confusing, I went back to Cat/Dunnstral but their interactions don't look paired from early on. Maybe it's just clever distancing.

Regardless of all of that, we don't need to solve the game today, just vote one mafia. If we Track Cat and Elim Dunnstral, it's probably a town win.

[MalcolmTucker]

@Goldie and anyone else who hasn’t voiced an answer to this yet

Who do you think is the scumteam?

It's Cat/Dunnstral. or it's You/Dunnstral. or You/Cat. or Goldfish/Malcolm (?).

This is all very confusing, I went back to Cat/Dunnstral but their interactions don't look paired from early on. Maybe it's just clever distancing.

Regardless of all of that, we don't need to solve the game today, just vote one mafia. If we Track Cat and Elim Dunnstral, it's probably a town win.

Can you address my post above re this? I'm not entirely against Dunn/Cat but unsure whether mafia votes to track one of their own in this scenario. However, from thinking about it there could be reasons why that's potentially beneficial to scum I think? Provided they survive of course. In such a scenario, if Dunn was scum, they'd aim for a Cat track and to eliminate you.

[MalcolmTucker]

Also remember in your above scenario Dunn needs to be scum of course. Even if Cat is actually mafia, does the track not end up being useless if we don't hit scum during the vote?

[furtiveglance]

@Goldie and anyone else who hasn’t voiced an answer to this yet

Who do you think is the scumteam?

We should decide who we are eliming before we decide who to track.
I townread you and furtive. I'm sus of dunnstral as an individual but don't see who their partner could be. That leaves Goldfish and Malcolm as absurd as that might sound. I think I want to eliminate goldfish because she's scum and in the case she isnt scum she's probably the NK so its not an instant loss. I know she would not shy away from trying to get herself informed and pulling something like this as scum.

I feel as though they planned to get Goldfish informed and pocket Furtive and have goldfish say that Malcolm is the Bulletproof. I think they made someone else, a real townie, the actual bulletproof though just in case goldfish wasnt informed. This is a bit of a conspiracy theory and I'll read some stuff before I commit to this.

VOTE: Malcolm

This is a worrying scenario. I don't scumread Malcolm at all, nor do I think scum would claim an innocent result on their partner. I definitely need to look again at Goldfish, they've had an easy ride this game.

[furtiveglance]

Hmm, the fact I've been cleared does make me wonder here if scum are trying to potentially misdirect me, or if they were at the start of the last turn when they picked me to have my alignment given. Given my main suspect has been Dunn (and still is based on play alone), it does make me wonder if Furtive is perhaps mafia and wanted to clear me since I'd largely TR'd them so far.

On the last vote, their suspicion of Radical Rat was at least consistent and so it wasn't a purely opportunistic vote - but I don't think there was anyone on the wagon who was necessarily all that opportunistic, but that doesn't rule out scum of course - quite possible for a scum player to have made a concerted push on Radical Rat early on in the hope it would go through at some point. But I don't think Furtive's continual suspicion there makes them look any better, is what I'm saying. Cat, Alianna and Goldfish all gave solid reasons for voting Radical Rat out even though I personally got townie vibes for them.

Personally I'd want us to track either Alianna or Cat here. Alianna's had fleeting suspicion throughout the game but it faded away a bit on D2. My own clear gives me some doubt but I still think Alianna/Dunn is a very possible team. Alianna had some suspicion on Dunn in D2 and then just gradually backed away from it. On Cat, I think their play was a lot more solid and felt quite townie on D2, but very much in a way that would make me worry it's mafia playing a clever game here.

Mafia had to pick someone who wasn't going to be eliminated (otherwise they reduce their possible miselimination options), and you've been widely townread (apart from by Cat). It's probably as simple as that. As for you townreading me, 1) appreciate it and 2) there must be reasons that you townread me.

[Dunnstral]

Mafia did not have to pick informed at all.

[furtiveglance]

I suppose at this point in the game if mafia are under pressure Furtive could look to sacrifice Dunn. Or am I overthinking it there? Given gameplay/me being confirmed as town I really struggle to see a Dunn/Alianna team despite having suspected both of them individually.

We're both trying to 'sacrifice' each other above all else. To me it looks like the game is at stake.

[furtiveglance]

Kind of spewing out thoughts a bit because this is a confusing place to be at in this point in the game. Scum doing a good job making me doubt myself/my reads here.

Right now it feels a bit like that yeah. Most likely in postgame we'll be saying "Yeah Dunnstral was suspicious all game and Cat threw us off with the distancing" or something similar.

[furtiveglance]

I already thought Malcolm was town, and I still think Goldfish is town even though they the confirm is one-way.

That leaves [Alianna, Dunnstral, Cat.Jpeg].

I can see either Alianna or Cat being town, so Dunnstral is mafia in either scenario. I'll probably push Dunnstral today.

For when you're on Furtive - interested to hear any updated thoughts re this. Dunn/Cat could have been feasible aside from some early game squabbling, but Dunn's early track vote for Cat D3 doesn't strike me as particularly conductive for mafia. You'd think mafia would at least want to make an attempt to shift the track onto town, no? Unless mafia think it's advantageous to have one of their own tracked because it basically removes them from the elimination pool? That's the only way I could see them as a team here.

Yeah this gives me pause as well. I previously considered Alianna/Dunnstral, but I've been townreading Alianna individually more as the game's gone on.

If I forget about associatives for a second, the bad vibes come from Dunnstral. And the other mafia isn't really giving off bad vibes right now.

[furtiveglance]

Mafia did not have to pick informed at all.

True, but Track is quite powerful and so is Watch. I think giving away a confirmed town is less risky than outting a confirmed mafia.

[furtiveglance]

Also remember in your above scenario Dunn needs to be scum of course. Even if Cat is actually mafia, does the track not end up being useless if we don't hit scum during the vote?

Can you see Alianna/Cat?

I can't at the moment, their interactions look like scum!Cat/town!Alianna to me. They don't look paired at all, nor do I scumread either of them strongly enough to vote them over Dunnstral.