Mafia 59: Hell on Earth - Game over!

[Battle Mage]

SV is Borg dude. im almost certain of it.

[Jalyn]

N9V, I've already posted my listing of who's in which group. (Wouldn't be bad to get those from everyone, I suppose.) The only change since then is that the Jules/BM as alien is becoming closer to a toss up of who's who to me.

I will be voting for Yos before I leave work tomorrow, Jules showing up or not, unless things pick up a bunch.

[Kelly Chen]

Vote count

3 - Yosarian2 (~N9V~, spectrumvoid, Battle Mage)
1 - ~N9V~ (Yosarian2)

not voting: Nightfall, Jules, Jalyn, theopor_COD

With 8 alive and 8 present it's 5 to throw someone into the steel!

Deadline: Thur May 10.

If there's no sign of Jules by tomorrow afternoon, I'll call the position vacant again...

[Jalyn]

*sigh* That's NOT picking up a bunch.

vote:Yosarian2

[theopor_COD]

Alien

N9V
BM/Jules - more likely Jules

Borg

Yos
SV
Jules/Nightfall - more likely Nightfall

Town

Theo
Jalyn
Nightfall/BM/Jules - more likely BM


That's pretty much the picture I've got painted. I cannot see N9V as anything but alien, I'm still not 100% sure if Yos is the confirmed Borg, but him trying to pin N9V as Borg makes me think he probably is a Borg, he seems to have given up recently aswell. SV I think is Borg bussing here, BM I'd lean toward being either Alien or Town. Nightfall could be anything as could Jules who we really need either replaced or heard from. Jalyn seems town.

Anyway I've got Yos as probably Borg. I can see Jalyn, Nightfall, Jules and BM as much more likely to be the two other townies, I cannot see Yos as Alien helluva gambit if he is, if he is town we are well and truly fucked and I apologise to all for listening to a claimed scum.

Anyway.

unvote, vote Yosarian

[Kelly Chen]

Vote count

5 - Yosarian2 (~N9V~, spectrumvoid, Battle Mage, Jalyn, theopor_COD)

1 - ~N9V~ (Yosarian2)

not voting: Nightfall, Jules

With 8 alive and 8 present it's 5 to throw someone into the steel!


Yosarian2 goes into the steel. Doesn't come back.

Yosarian2 -

Borg

- lynched Day 6


Alright it is night! I'd love to have moves this weekend.

I will once again look for a replacement for TJM/Jules...

[Kelly Chen]

Skruffs replaces TheJiveMachine/Jules.

Thanks!

[Kelly Chen]

Day 7

Wow. Whew. Just one death this time!

Battle Mage, natural enemy to scum, was butchered.

Battle Mage -

Townie

- killed Night 6



With 6 alive and 6 present, it is 4 to lynch!

Tentative autodeadline: Sunday

May 20th

, three weeks from today.

[theopor_COD]

Vote No Lynch

I don't see how else we can win. Someone may be able to help me with probabilities etc here though. Looks like both scum went for Battle Mage.

The obvious move would be to kill the claimed alien in N9V, that however pretty much awards the game to the Borg if they kill the other alien at night. They will have a one in 3 shot of victory. Lynching the claimed scum however would work in our favour if the Borg have no idea of the other Alien, they will either win or hit a townie though.

If we no lynch then we go into night at 2 - 2 - 2 and pretty much have to hope Aliens and Borg kill one another. Both teams need a townie alive at endgame so it would be there interests I think not to kill a townie. Anyway ideas people and Skruffs some input be nice being as we've had nothing from Jive or Jules for the past month.

[Battle Mage]

BAH lol. i was really enjoying this game too...
GO TOWN!
BM

[~N9V~]

Sorry BM

Uhh no, we need to lynch someone. A no lynch would send this game over at night.Because they wouldn't target me, or the two members in their scum group, so that leaves a 2/3 chance of hitting a town, when our group is 2/4 We need to lynch someone.

Vote: Nightfall

he's scum guys. If not, well then it was a good game with all of you.

[Skruffs]

NV9, you've claimed alien scum, right?
Theo, Why do you think scum shouldn't be lynched today? If both scum hit other scum tonight, it's still a town loss the final day; no matter who gets lynched, the last scum kills a townie. If one of hte scum hit a townie tonight, the other group will have a majority and wins by default. So yeah, no lynch is a bad idea. We have to lynch scum today.

If the newt can confirm a townie, they should do so; it would confirm all of the other players as scum, and win the game. Scum have to hit each other, if they can, to win, at that point. one lynched, two nightkilled, last one lynched. Booya.

Vote : NV9

Oh, and hi everyone. This is the first game I've replaced into at LYLO. Very diferent, I dont have the suspense built up in me like you do. However, maybe without that stress I can see things clearly?

[Jalyn]

Here's the possibilities:

Lynch N9V

1 alien - 2 borg - 2 town

0 alien - 1 borg - 2 town (aliens hit borg, borg hit alien)
0 alien - 2 borg - 1 town (aliens hit town, borg hit alien)(game over - borg win)
1 alien - 1 borg - 1 town (aliens hit borg, borg hit town)
1 alien - 2 borg - 0 town (aliens hit town, borg hit town)(game over - borg win)
1 alien - 2 borg - 1 town (aliens hit town, borg hit same town)(effectively a borg win/possible no win)

No lynch

2 alien - 2 borg - 2 town

1 alien - 1 borg - 2 town (aliens hit borg, borg hit alien)
1 alien - 2 borg - 1 town (aliens hit town, borg hit alien)(effectively a borg win/possible no win)
2 alien - 1 borg - 1 town (aliens hit borg, borg hit town)(effectively an alien win/possible no win)
2 alien - 2 borg - 0 town (aliens hit town, borg hit town)(game over - no one wins)
2 alien - 2 borg - 1 town (aliens hit town, borg hit same town)

Lynching N9V has both the best case and worst case scenarios. I'm going to again play away from the worst case scenario and

vote:No Lynch

. This forces both scum groups to try to hit the other group because if they don't and the other group does, they lose in the night game. (My logic, for the "effective" wins is that it's not possible to lynch the higher group due to numbers, the game goes back into night, probably a no lynch again. If the high group hits the low group, they win regardless of the other's kill. If they hit town, they either win if the low group hits the same person or no win if one of their members dies.)

[Kelly Chen]

Vount count

2 - No Lynch (theopor_COD, Jalyn)
1 - Nightfall (~N9V~)
1 - ~N9V~ (Skruffs)

not voting: Nightfall, spectrumvoid

With 6 alive and 6 present it takes 4 votes to toss someone into the steel (or decide not to).

Deadline Sun May 20.

Courtesy prods going out.

[Skruffs]

Too bad that was a blatant defense of NV9. You didn't offer any other averages, like, what if other people are lynched; NV9's partner (you) for example, borg, townie.
The best possible solution town has, is to lynch a borg, assume the other borg takes out one alien, the aliens hopefully hit the other borg, and the last alien is lynched tommorrow. THat's really our BEST Chance. but it's also one of the most dangerous, because if we lynch a townie, the aliens could hit the last townie instead of borg tonight. tommorrow would be a o townie, 1 borg, 1 alien loss for everyone. I, for one, am willing to risk losing if it means all the mafias lose, too.

[~N9V~]

Unvote Vote Skruffs

Actually, I think you are more likely to be scum. With those last two post. The mosts cummy one is the first one

[Jalyn]

With the two scum groups even:

A) If I were to vote to lynch, it would be for the claimed scum.

B) The numbers would simply flip if we lynched Borg.

I didn't bother running the numbers if we lynched town, because I didn't think it likely that we would lynch someone other than the claimed scum.

Here they are:

2 alien - 2 borg - 1 town

1 alien - 1 borg - 1 town (aliens hit borg, borg hits alien)
1 alien - 2 borg - 0 town (aliens hit town, borg hit alien)(borg win)
2 alien - 1 borg- 0 town (aliens hit borg, borg hit alien)(alien win)
2 alien - 2 borg - 0 town (aliens hit town, borg hit same town)(No win)

Yeah. Not a good idea.

[theopor_COD]

The only other person up for consideration in my eyes in N9V he's claimed scum and given us two of his rivals. A no lynch however makes much more sense personally.

If we lynch N9V - then Borg have a 1/3 chance of hitting the other alien, I'd actually half expect the other alien to bus N9V to appear less likely to be the other alien, therefore I think Skruffs is still likely to be N9V's partner. I thought the last alien was Jive/Jules/Skruffs or BM and with BM a townie, Skruffs still feels most likely to me.

No lynch still the optimal play as far I can tell. We need some input from Nightfall and SV.

[Jalyn]

I'm still with

Alien:
N9V
Skruffs

Borg:
SV
Nightfall/theoper_COD

Town:
Jalyn
theoper_COD/Nightfall

[Nightfall]

Vote: Nightfall

he's scum guys. If not, well then it was a good game with all of you.

Um no. I am not scum, neither borg or alien.
P.S. Why are people placing votes so freely today? That seems pretty careless does it not?

[Skruffs]

Well, Placing a vote on N9V isn't careless; he claimed scum to help lynch a borg. But now that the sides are euqal (2-2-2) I see us as having three choices; we lynch the confirmed scum(Nv9), we no lynch, or we risk lynching someone else (with 60% likelihood of hitting scum), knowign that we can lynch NV9 tommorrow. I don't personally like screwing around with chances, and I don't trust the mafia to hit only each other when there's still an 'expendable' townie in their eyes.

I don't see how I'm being seen as scum; Jalyn is *obviously* his partner. I caught on, and NV9 immediately turned his vote from a platonic "no lynch" to a vote on me, which Jalyn was all too eager to agree with.

I've skimmed through since Bogre's lynch, and I can't believe Jalyn hasn't been lynched or nightkilled by the borg yet. Scumscumscum.

[~N9V~]

I was never voting no lynch. Get your facts staraight before your so bold to claim someone as scum.

[Skruffs]

oops, my bad. You voted some random person. I mistook theopor's original post for yours.
You're right, my bad. You're just a down-on-your-luck alien, trying to lynch a borg. (presumably)

[theopor_COD]

I was never voting no lynch. Get your facts staraight before your so bold to

claim someone as scum

.

You've done that yourself.

Anyway we cannot I think lynch anyone.

If we lynch N9V as claimed scum then it will be

1 Alien, 2 Borg, 2 Town - Pretty much everyone agrees N9V is alien.
At night Alien will hit either Borg/Town; Borg will hit Alien/Town - best scenario will leave us at 1 Alien, 1 Borg, 1 Town. If Borg don't hit town they win at night. Being at 1/1/1 for the following day's lynch the only way we can is for the two scums to hit each other bit of a long shot really.

If we no lynch, then we have to pretty much hope they take each other out but it's the best hope.

[Skruffs]

Um, well, no, actually, if borg and alien crossfire, then it's 2 townies and 1 borg left tommorrow. Lynching scum is always an option.
You people and your selective analysi.