Mini 1361: Rainy Days Mafia- Game Over!

[Peabody]

I'm starting to think that the SK's choice in no kill was actually smart and this is why.

The SK HAS to be investigation immune. That's the only way Pasch is still alive. Otherwise, serial killer will not last very long at all. There's a possibility that McStab is the serial killer, but if he is, that still means the SK is investigation immune. Also, by no killing, the SK has made my investigations useless. He/she is controlling today's lynches by no killing.

I believe that McStab might have to be lynched. There's too much WIFOM surrounding him.

Sorry to say this town, we are at square one. This is day 1 all over again, and we need to use it to scumhunt rather than rely on me and Pasch. All we can offer is that we are confirmed town, but remember that this is the same town that wiped out all three mafia in 2 days. Rapidcanyon does look suspect, but I will not rule out Pasch's confirmeds.

[rapidcanyon]

I cannot account for guttersnipe's behavior. It wasn't great but it didn't strike me as scummy either. He was just uninterested in the game and wanted to be gone. So, he is gone now and I replaced him.

I get what Peabody is saying about the sk directing lynches. But if the SK never kills, we pretty much have about 5 mislynches before we lose and each night, Pasch can investigate a player. I guess the SK could be investigation immune but worst case scenario, the sk will end up with Pasch and Peabody at LYLO and they lynch him. It makes no sense to not kill every night. That is why I think it is likely McStab and he bought a day yesterday by having a townie lynched and is claiming no kills to account for the fact that he was jailed.

Basically, McStab seems like he is going to WIFOM us every day until he wins.

[Eidolon]

We're lynching whoever Peabody jailed. I assume it was Mcstab, but I'll wait for him to confirm.

what??

this comment is odd.

i'm still undecided on this game. i'll post more tomorrow.

[Paschendale]

Basically, McStab seems like he is going to WIFOM us every day until he wins.

But he can't win that way. Because we're going to lynch him long before me, Peabody, or Absta. And probably before Charter and Eidolon, too. While I don't think that McStab is the best lynch today (you/Gutter are), I probably will think he's the best lynch tomorrow. Maybe after Charter, but maybe not. And that's as far as we would let McStab live.

[rapidcanyon]

And why I am I/Gutter the better lynch option? McStab was jailed and no kill took place so either we are going to assume that the SK is waiving on his kills - or not. If not, then we don't lynch McStab. If yes, we lynch him. There is no reason to lynch Gutter/me and not the others.

[rapidcanyon]

I am just waiting on Eidolon's comments tomorrow to see if she has anything to add.

[Paschendale]

And why I am I/Gutter the better lynch option? McStab was jailed and no kill took place so either we are going to assume that the SK is waiving on his kills - or not. If not, then we don't lynch McStab. If yes, we lynch him. There is no reason to lynch Gutter/me and not the others.

Read day 3. We argued about this already. I wanted to lynch Gutter. Others wanted to lynch Yabba. Even though we lynched Yabba, Gutter was still my top choice. You're Gutter now. Hence, I still want to lynch that slot. I don't need to go over the argument again because everyone but you has seen it . You're welcome to go back, review it, and argue against it. But I'm not going to rehash it for your benefit. Especially since I think you're the SK, and I'm trying to convince everyone else of that. I'm not trying to convince you.

[rapidcanyon]

I decided to do some calculations:

Let's say the SK waived a kill just to get McStab lynched. There will be 6 town and an sk.

- McStab is mislynched (5-1)
- Kill someone (4-1)
- Mislynch townie A (3-1)
- Kill someone (2-1)
- Mislynch townie B (1-1) - SK wins

Suppose they choose to kill someone (maybe peabody)

McStab is confirmed and there are 5 townies and 1 sk

- Mislynch townie A (4-1)
- Kill someone (maybe Pasch) - (3-1)
- Mislynch townie B (2-1)
- Kill someone (1-1)

So mislynching McStab does them no good. They could just as well have killed him. Why waive a kill to get a McStab lynch when that INCREASES the number of mislynches that the SK needs in order to win? They still have to lynch two townies in addition to McStab. So, I am not buying it.

@ Pasch, the serial killer may or may not be investigation immune. The only way to test it is to lynch McStab. You are not going to get any benefit by assuming that everyone you investigate innocent is town and randomly lynching players. There are roles designed specifically to trick investigations. You need to understand this.

McStab is our lynch for today.

Vote McStab

Pedit: yeah, so first we lynch Yabba and then we lynch Gutter (me) but we let McStab keep running riot every day until he wins? Honestly, I just wish a smarter person was confirmed town but w/e, it seems you have made up your mind and are just going to be a liability from now on.

Look, it is obvious, McStab was jailed. There was no kill. We lynch McStab. If you don't understand simple logic we'll just have to wait for the rational townies to make a decision.

[rapidcanyon]

I'm starting to think that the SK's choice in no kill was actually smart and this is why.

The SK HAS to be investigation immune. That's the only way Pasch is still alive. Otherwise, serial killer will not last very long at all. There's a possibility that McStab is the serial killer, but if he is, that still means the SK is investigation immune. Also, by no killing, the SK has made my investigations useless. He/she is controlling today's lynches by no killing.

I believe that McStab might have to be lynched. There's too much WIFOM surrounding him.

Sorry to say this town, we are at square one. This is day 1 all over again, and we need to use it to scumhunt rather than rely on me and Pasch. All we can offer is that we are confirmed town, but remember that this is the same town that wiped out all three mafia in 2 days. Rapidcanyon does look suspect, but I will not rule out Pasch's confirmeds.

If you won't rule out Pasch's confirmeds, it still makes a lot more sense to go after McStab than Absta for instance so we pretty much have our lynch in the bag.

[rapidcanyon]

So, just waiting on Peabody/Eidolon and Absta since everyone has had a chance to speak so far. Pasch isn't going to vote. I am half tempted to policy-lynch him since town can't rely on his vote but we need his investigations and he is confirmed so we can just ignore him.

[rapidcanyon]

We're lynching whoever Peabody jailed. I assume it was Mcstab, but I'll wait for him to confirm.

what??

this comment is odd.

i'm still undecided on this game. i'll post more tomorrow.

How is this comment "odd?" It makes perfect sense.

[McStab]

II don't know if I'll survive today but if I do jailkeep Charter or RC and don't assume the SK has to be investigation immune. I know this is setup spec but a SK Investigation Immune plus Mafia Tailor really reduces the power of a cop. Reducing the power of a cop, a JK (which is somewhat swingy) and a two shot Vig versus three Mafia and one SK (who is probably bulletproof) in a 13 person game is insanely unbalanced for town. I am more inclined to believe SK no killed in an effort to frame me.

The logic of jailing me = no kill, if true, leads me to propose the following:

Continue jailing me. If I am the SK I cannot kill, we won't lynch Peabody or Pasch, and in three player LyLo I get lynched. If anyone genuinely thinks I am the SK this is a plan that guaranteez town victory. If I'm not the SK then don't lynch me. Simple enough?

[McStab]

If I don't * survive the day. But my plan is follproof. Also the SK reall

[McStab]

Really cant be investigation immune in a balanced setup. I hate phone posting

[rapidcanyon]

@ McStab, the same logic could apply to any player. For instance, we can keep jailing Charter, Eidolon, or me each night to see if there are no kills. If there are kills, then we are confirmed. You keep trying to buy time each day. You are the best bet.

[McStab]

Your logic is flawed. An SK kill was missing both nights I was jailed. The one night I wasn't there was a kill. So apparently there is a correlation there. Furthermore the ONLY arguments for me being SK is that correlation. So using that strategu on other players makes no sense. Aside from that your arguing that I am the SK and yet didn't argue against my foolproof plan to defeat the SK if it is me. Literally, if you think I am the SK, follow my plan to victory by Jailkeeping me till three player LyLo with Peabody and Pasch.

[Peabody]

I am just waiting on Eidolon's comments tomorrow to see if she has anything to add.

Why?

I can't find the right words or put my finger on it but RC just looks suspect. I'm trying to figure out WHY his posting is bothering me so much...

McStab, explain why you voted Charter.

[rapidcanyon]

I am just waiting on Eidolon's comments tomorrow to see if she has anything to add.

Why?

1) I know her.

2) I think she is freakin awesome.

3) She is really good at nailing scum (unless she is scum herself).

4) She hasn't posted in a while so I miss playing with her.

5) For some reason, she isn't talking to me much anymore in mafia games or on debate.org

6) I want to see what is going on with her and if it was something I did.

Want me to keep adding? I could go on.

tl,dr: I want her read. I want to know who she accuses or if she fencesits. I want to know who she thinks is scum.

I am just waiting on Eidolon's comments tomorrow to see if she has anything to add.

I can't find the right words or put my finger on it but RC just looks suspect. I'm trying to figure out WHY his posting is bothering me so much...

Sure. What's new? I think Pasch is suspect too but I can't put my finger on it, but wait. He can't be scum.

[rapidcanyon]

Quote fail!

I am just waiting on Eidolon's comments tomorrow to see if she has anything to add.

Why?

1) I know her.

2) I think she is freakin awesome.

3) She is really good at nailing scum (unless she is scum herself).

4) She hasn't posted in a while so I miss playing with her.

5) For some reason, she isn't talking to me much anymore in mafia games or on debate.org

6) I want to see what is going on with her and if it was something I did.

Want me to keep adding? I could go on.

tl,dr: I want her read. I want to know who she accuses or if she fencesits. I want to know who she thinks is scum.

I am just waiting on Eidolon's comments tomorrow to see if she has anything to add.

I can't find the right words or put my finger on it but RC just looks suspect. I'm trying to figure out WHY his posting is bothering me so much...

Sure. What's new? I think Pasch is suspect too but I can't put my finger on it, but wait. He can't be scum.[/quote]

[McStab]

I voted charter because I know im town. The only explanation for the no kill is i was getting setup (from my perspective). Hence I think whoever pushed hardest for it had the motive to. Now that RC is pushing harder and still trying to push it, I would rather see him lyynched than charter. Still think SK is amongst those two.

vote:Rapidcanyon

[rapidcanyon]

I voted charter because I know im town. The only explanation for the no kill is i was getting setup (from my perspective). Hence I think whoever pushed hardest for it had the motive to. Now that RC is pushing harder and still trying to push it, I would rather see him lyynched than charter. Still think SK is amongst those two.

vote:Rapidcanyon

Sure. OMGUSing everyone who votes for you helps convince us that you are not the SK.

[rapidcanyon]

This is little more than an attempt at discouraging votes.

Peabody, why haven't you voted for McStab already?

Also, absta should hammer when he gets online.

[rapidcanyon]

This is a fairly straightforward lynch that needs to happen instantly.

Premise: McStab was jailed and there was no kill

Conclusion: McStab is SK

This is the most likely scenario. Are we all going to sit here and WIFOM ourselves into lynching another townie like last Day phase? It was pretty much a given that if McStab was jailed, he was SK. I pointed out in great detail with my mathematical analysis why McStab was scum. Do you really think an SK would forfeit a kill just to lynch McStab? It makes no sense.

Lynch him already - as soon as you get online.

[rapidcanyon]

McStab's strategy is basically "I'll vote for whoever is pushing on my lynch the hardest." How can it be more obvious? Peabody, I have no idea why you are wasting time on useless stuff. I said I want to hear from Eidolon and you say "why?" What purpose does this question serve? Answer me? How does it bring us closer to lynching McStab and ending the game? How does it move the game forward? Why are you dilly-dallying and wasting time with useless questions that don't advance the ultimate goal of today which is lynching McStab? In essence, why are you taking 10 days for what needs to be finished in one day? I am impatient for this game to end and it doesn't seem like anybody else is. I get that you mafiascum people take about a month to make a decision. Is this Day worth spending a month on when we have a clear target? Why are we wasting time?

[McStab]

Your conclusion is I am the SK. I have put forth a plan that leads to a 100% town win if I am. Rapid anyon is trying to push my lynch through without attacking my plan because it is flawless. To recap, continue jailing me and lynching everyone ex ept Peabody and Pasch. Then if us three end up in LyLo lynch me. My plan is only flawed if I am not the SK; at which point I shouldn't be voted because you're operating off the pretense I am town.

If I am town, lynch someone other than me. If I am SK, lynch someone other than me. There is no reason to vote me right now unless someone can point out a claw in my plan (there isn't). Rapidcanyon should go first due to Gutter's position off the scum wagons, and due to his lack of responding to my plan/rushing a quicklynch. I fail to see why anyone needs to be lynched in any great hurry. If RC isn't then charter should be lynched after.