As I promised, bandwagon analysis is next. The bandwagons as I see them were:
- Early in the day, Ythan was pressured on his meta of posting much.
- There was a small wagon against Scrambles around post #100.
- There was a significant wagon against RayFrost.
- A bandwagon against NS/Kthx developed, which got to 3 votes.
- Around the original deadline, there was a bandwagon against TCC.
- Again a bandwagon against Kthx.
- Pomegranate became the deadline lynch.
- Day 2 saw a bandwagon against Fate
- and a bandwagon against Copper.
I will only mention very important players on the bandwagon, and things that feel off.
The early bandwagon against Ythan
The early pressure on Ythan seems to have been used to get the game going. The main topic of discussion was how often Ythan posts. There are several players involved.
Copper starts the discussion, by arguing that Ythan's behaviour is anti-town, because it prevents less active players from keeping up. Considering Ythan's meta, this is arguing against deaf ears, but it does feel honest.
TCC takes a very interesting position. He mentions that Ythan's behaviour will mainly cause other players to get annoyed and focus on Ythan instead of finding scum. Before saying that, he is stimulating that reaction with comments such as "you talk a lot irl, don't you?" and "lol, this is going to be a long game". This is by far the most scummy reaction on the wagon.
Nobody Special is simply complaining about Ythan's behaviour, and waits for the discussion to reach another, more useful subject. He takes a very reactionary stance here. I'm not really liking it.
SFG argues against the Ythan wagon, claiming that there's likely scum pushing for the easy mislynch. None of the attacks feel like pushing a mislynch to me, but considering the overall feel of the discussion, I like the sentiment.
Then Scrambles actually voted Ythan "for being annoying", which caused the second bandwagon of the game.
Wagon against Scrambles
This wagon started of when Scrambles voted Ythan for reasons unrelated to Ythan being scum. Scrambles being questioned on that vote is a logical reaction there.
The only thing that feels unnatural in the following bandwagon is Ray. He argues that Scrambles vote isn't very scummy, then later summarizes Scrambles as "pushing for an Ythan lynch for reasons unrelated to Ythan being scum" (my wording). He never explains why town is likely to do this. Thor questions him on this, but he doesn't answer, mainly due to the "funny posts" going on at the time.
Wagon against RayFrost
There seem to be two main reasons behind the wagon against RayFrost. The first is that he doesn't match his town meta / matches his scum meta. The second reason is that when the wagon happened, he wasn't contributing (which I agree with, as I mentioned in my activity analysis). One of the comments that really struck me in this regard is post #206 by Ray. There, he basically states "true, I'm not contributing, but at least I'm posting". Posting without contributing is the definition of active lurking.
Ythan starts commenting on Ray as early as post #148, mentioning that Ray seems out of character. He repeats this in #199, claiming that Ray is playing different from his usual town meta. These comments eventually lead to a vote of Ray in #227 because Ythan doesn't really have anything else. As soon as something more suspicious comes along (NS vote for Ray), the vote is withdrawn again. He is following the crowd a bit, but his vote matches his earlier comments.
Copper is the one who really starts this wagon. He votes Ray for not commenting in post #178, and backs that up with an actual attack in post #190. Solid reasoning, good suspicions.
Pomegranate also joins in early (#198), claiming to match Ray's behaviour to his scum meta she experienced in earlier games, plus the fact that he simply doesn't contribute. Combined with Ythan's statement that Ray isn't playing to his town meta, this is an excellent reason to be suspicious. This vote is further backed up in post #226.
TCC shows verbal support for the Ray wagon. His reasoning doesn't really hold against questioning by Thor, though. Post #216 strikes me as mainly unhelpful, post #277 shows that TCC didn't actually believe Ray to be scum, but mainly considers Ray to be antitown. Weak reasoning to support a popular wagon is mild reason to be suspicious of TCC.
NS votes Ray for non contribution after having been absent himself for quite a while. This vote feels like he's joining the easy bandwagon, and is therefore very suspicious.
Sotty joins the Ray bandwagon very late (she votes in #338), when discussion has been focussing on others for quite a while. Her reasoning is that Ray is still not providing content. This vote doesn't strike me as very helpful.
Bandwagon against NS/Kthx
The bandwagon against Nobody Special begins when NS votes Ray for lack of participation in post #234, when he was extremely guilty of that himself. Several players mention this. Ythan attacks him over lurking, stating how in a different game they're playing together, NS is posting. NS flips out completely over this, deciding to replace out. Nothing and noone on this bandwagon feels of to me.
Bandwagon against TCC
As I stated in my activity analysis, TCC was providing horribly little relevant content. Especially his announcements of V/LA for short periods of time when not posting content in between them were horribly scummy.
Troll is the first to mention this, voting TCC as early as post #354. Note that this is the second vote on TCC, next to Inquisitor's random vote on post #9.
Thor starts pressuring a TCC wagon around post #468. His reasoning is good, TCC was scummy, but it also feels a bit like a last effort deadline wagon. It would have been far better if the attack had come about 100 posts earlier, when TCC first stated V/LA after not having contributed in a long time.
CSL's vote for TCC in post #523 is horrible. It completely lacks any reasoning whatsoever, which is unacceptable for an L-2 vote after 20 pages of discussion. Nevertheless, I don't really find the vote scummy, because I don't see why scum would be more likely then town to vote that way. Allthough the vote does bring the lynch one vote closer, it does not make the lynch more likely. Such poor reasoning will draw attention to the player using it (and therefore away from the player that scum would want to have mislynched), and will make players considering to vote Ktx rethink if they really want to be on a bandwagon with such poor support. I'm not saying it is good play, but I'm considering this vote a neutral tell.
At this point in time, Copper is starting to defend TCC because of the speed of the bandwagon. I must say I can't really agree with that analysis. The votes from Inquisitor and Troll had been there for a while. The vote of Thor was a direct result of TCC announcing V/LA without posting content again. Locke only just replaced in, and voted a full two days after Thor's vote. If the deadline hadn't been moved, it would have been only a couple of hours before the actual deadline. The only vote that could actually be considered speedy was that of CSL, and I have already commented on that.
The vote on the TCC wagon that actually feels scummy to me is that of Kthx. That vote really feels like voting for the popular bandwagon because it is the popular bandwagon rather then because he actually believes TCC is scum. Furthermore, it is an L-1 vote without a warning that it is one. This post very much feels like Kthx is scum trying to get a mislynch, which makes it more likely that TCC is town.
Second Bandwagon against Kthx
The second bandwagon against Kthx also doesn't have much that stands out. It's Henry, Ray and Locke voting, with Copper and Thor also having questioned Kthx vote.
Considering how scummy the vote of Kthx actually was, I am really surprised to see that this wagon didn't develop into more of a bandwagon, perhaps even a lynch. I find it especially remarkable that Sotty #549 doesn't comment on the Kthx vote. Also standing out is Copper sticking to a Ray vote when it has been rather difficult to find consensus, especially considering their remark that there is at least one, and possibly two scum in CSL, Locke, Kthx. Later on, they vote CSL over Kthx "because they want to see what develops from the discussion between Thor and Henri". That extensive debate Thor and Henri had over Henri's suspicions may have helped to get attention away from Kthx too.
Bandwagon on Pomegranate, develops into lynch
The bandwagon against Pome came almost out of nothing. There had been some comments on her by Ray, Locke and Sotty, but there hadn't really been much discussion on her. In fact, even after having read page 24, I still had trouble seeing why on earth Pome had been lynched.
There were two main accusations: Lack of content, and the fact that she misrepresented Ray's meta. Both accusations were rediculous. Pome had been far less guilty of active lurking then NS, TCC or even RayFrost. The claim that she didn't come with a scumlist is also simply incorrect, because her #474 clearly stated who she suspected, and why. The accusation that she misrepresented Ray's meta holds a bit more water, but I still believe in what I stated in post #803.
The bandwagon was started by two players. Locke started pressuring Pome on her metaread in #522, and got more serious about his suspicions in #602. He states that he wants to see her lynched in #615, and actually votes as third on the wagon in #630.
Sotty first brings up the lack of a scumlist in #525, dismissing the active lurkerhunting as useless. She continues this line of reasoning in #549, calling Pome commenting on Ray's lack of content hypocritical. She is the first to vote Pom in #612. I disagree with her reasoning, but there seems to be a logical development of suspicion here.
Thor's vote for Pomegranate in #618 feels very uncharacteristic of him. He lists the other possibilities, but completely ignores the Kthx wagon even though it was the second most popular at the time. He also doesn't comment at first on why Pomegranate is actually scum. He later claims to agree with the "active lurking" accusation, but makes no attempt whatsoever to actually verify this. In particular, I don't like how he calls a vote for active lurking on Ray as bad as the completely unexplained CSL vote. His is a very suspicious vote.
Copper is clearly opposed to the Pom wagon in #620. My main complaint about them is that they pushed for the wrong alternative. By instead joining the Kthx wagon, they could have caused a lynch they actually agreed to regain momentum again. Now, they were forced to join a wagon they did not agree with simply to guarantee a lynch.
Kthx vote is very poorly supported. It is again a simple agreeing with the claim that Pome was active lurking, without any evidence to back it up. The fact that deadline was approaching is an excuse here though.
Ray unvotes without any attempt to guarantee a lynch one way or another.
The fact that this lynch has Copper, Zorblag and Charter on it, when all of them have significantly questioned whether Pome was scummy or not, is very telling IMO. I'm really disappointed in this result. I feel that a Kthx lynch had been a far better possibility, and even a TCC lynch would have been more informative.
The day 2 wagons
Both bandwagons today feel rather poor. During day 1, neither Copper nor Fate's predecessors did anything that was indicative of them being scum IMO.
Looking at the actual votes, I see little reasoning why they are made on scum:
Kthx vote on Copper for nightkill speculation is ridiculous. Scum will have had a reason for their kill. If we can figure out what that reason was, we can gain a distinct advantage.
Socrates #708 & #709 are very much about why Socrates is town, and very little about why Fate is actually scum.
Copper's vote for Fate is mainly the result of their suspicion of CSL, over something which I believe wasn't at all indicative of being scum (see analysis of TCC wagon).
Sotty's vote for Fate is better, but still doesn't take into account the information gained from day 1 in any way.
Charters vote for Copper is better reasoned, but also seems to hinge far more on perceived scummyness then actual analysis of actions.
Fate suspicions of Copper seem to be far too dependant on Socrates being scum. Coppers defense of TCC was entirely reasonable IMO.
I am still planning to look at the nightkill, plus what I can find in players ISO. I feel I have gathered enough info now to make an informed vote, though.
Nobody Special combined active lurking with easy bandwagoning. He was succeeded by KthxBye, who continued the easy bandwagoning by making the most suspicious vote of day 1 and being on the Pom wagon on rather weak reasons.
Vote: Pie_is_good
I also have reasons to be suspicious of Socrates because of the behaviour of TCC, of Thor for his vital role in the Pom lynch and of SaintKerrigan because of Ray's behaviour towards the deadline.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
) until midnight tonight but I've made it up to the end of Day 1.