I can analyse this.In post 793, Vedith wrote:In post 605, ThinkBig wrote:BTD6_maker (2): Something_Smart, iDanyboyIn post 625, ThinkBig wrote:BTD6_maker (2): Something_Smart, iDanyboyIn post 653, ThinkBig wrote:BTD6_maker (3): Something_Smart, iDanyboy, Sergtacos L-1Dany / BTD are not scum.In post 666, ThinkBig wrote:BTD6_maker (2): Something_Smart, iDanyboy
Also, SS you're reads mean very little if it's outside of BTD/me and Alch/Dany. You should state anything you want to though, as if you lynch wrong today, game over, lynch right, we lynch the buddy.
Easy game, easy money.
So, now let me tell you why Vedith/BTD is a no go for you.
1 - It will lose us the game
2 - I came into the day with you as scum, but I wanted to hear opinions first before risking the vote dropped. Dany gave no regard to any other teams away from BTD and dropped the vote. That means that he had no care with LyLo, not something town does.
3 - Alch is trying way too hard right now. He's also got the sweats because he knows when Dany is lynched, tomorrow he is bye bye.
4 - 743 is such so forced. Even more so with 725.
5 - Alch 721 suggests that me and Dany can be scum together (which I still don't get) and has no issue voting BTD with that thought.
6 - I'm Vedith \o/
7 - I solved the game.
At the moment, I know every player's alignment. I know Vedith is Town, and I know Vedith knows iDanyBoy is scum. Vedith clearly considers it extremely unlikely that the scum team is myself and iDanyBoy (they stated as much), so from Vedith's perspective Point 1 holds.
It doesn't necessarily hold from your (SS) perspective, though. From your perspective, Vedith/BTD and Alchemist/iDanyBoy are both possible scumteams. (BTD/iDanyBoy is also possible, though presumably much more unlikely). Thus, while it is solid for Vedith (who can guarantee 100% that iDanyBoy is scum) it doesn't necessarily apply to you.
Now for Point 2.
A Townie voting first early in LyLo is anti-Town (barring extreme circumstances like getting a Cop guilty). Even if a Townie has a very strong scum read, there is nothing to lose in waiting for at least a while before voting. Would scum do the same? Scum have two options. They can either just sit and wait for a Townie to vote a Townie (like I did in 714). This is risky, though, as it could take a while and there is always a chance of you being suspected. The other approach is to strongly push for the lynch of one specific Townie and hope to convince someone else to join you. It is perhaps easier to push a lynch here if you try to make sure that another Townie also scumreads the same person. (The main disadvantage is that you effectively reduce the lynch pool to two people, one of which is yourself, so you would have a 50% chance of being lynched barring other factors).
Here iDanyBoy has taken the latter approach. They voted me near the start, being the first to push for a lynch. What makes the second method work here? Here it is the fact that you were scumreading me previously and so scum hoped you would vote me.
Now Point 3.
From my perspective I know Alchemist is scum. However, from your perspective you do not know that for sure so for the sake of argument we will suppose they are Town.
Consider their perspective after iDanyBoy voted me and I voted them. From my perspective, I knew iDanyBoy was practically confscum so I could vote them without any fear of being wrong. From Alchemist's perspective, they had no such knowledge. Either of us could have been scum. However, they then proceed to push that I am scum as opposed to iDanyBoy and voted me when there was plenty of time left in the game (which, as Town, loses instantly if they are wrong). Their responses to me after that looked like scum trying to frame everything I say as scummy (such as, for example, the fact that I did not suspect anyone particularly as being iDanyBoy's partner as me just trying to get the last lynch). A Townie would consider the possibility that iDanyBoy is scum, but Alchemist refuses to do so.
(Of course, in this analysis we need to ignore everything they said after Vedith voted and there was no hammer, as at that point I really would be confscum from their perspective).
This also explains the fourth point. I now know that they are scum. In those posts they seem to be looking for reasons to vote me (and using one reason to claim I am practically "confscum") to them. As scum, they want to vote me without looking suspicious in the process. After that, all it would take is one Townie to vote me and they win. (As I now know they are scum I can rule out the possibility that they were Town and genuinely believed (but with some confbias) that that made me scum; however, I couldn't do so until they actually voted me and no hammer occurred).
As for the fifth point, a Townie would generally at least consider a particular pair. They are confident that SS is not scum, which I can understand. However, the one pair they didn't consider, given SS is Town, is Vedith/iDanyBoy, which implies that they do not consider that I could be Town. Again, this type of thinking can lose the game instantly as Town, but is very helpful for pushing a lynch as scum.
The sixth and seventh points seem to be jokes, so I will ignore them.
This is the case on iDanyBoy/Alchemist being the scum team. My analysis is probably somewhat clouded by my knowledge that Vedith and SS are confTown and iDanyBoy and Alchemist are confscum, but it's probably still fairly accurate. (Even if I know who scum are I cannot know exactly what they are thinking, but I can still make reasonable assumptions).
