Open 554 - omg, like, jungle republic!! + game over~~

[Thor665]

Right now?
I'm Mafia MVP at this point of the game.

This should be exploited out of context.

But it remains true - I am the Mafia MVP right now, because I'm trying to save their wincon.

Hellooooo! Earth to Mafia! A wolf is going to eat you!

[Majiffy]

VOTE: reinoe

Cant wait for nm anymore

[Thor665]

Lia (1) :: Not_Mafia, (L-1)
Majiffy (2) :: Justin Playfair, reinoe (L-2)
reinoe (2) :: Lia, Majiffy (L-2)

So now we're here.

Mafia is still playing poorly because, once again, unless both Mafia are voting the same person (and N_M is the wolf...and no one's voting him) than this is not a good VC for the Mafia team to see.
I suppose it's a decent one to see if N_M and Majiffy are the Mafia and Reinoe is the Wolf - that would make it a decent vote count as long as they figured N_M would sheep. But I'll admit evidence doesn't particularly support a Reinoe=wolf situation.

[Thor665]

I suppose the above VC could have N_M as town as long as wolf was voting with town. So a Majiffy or Reinoe Wolf vs. Justin/Reinoe Mafia or Lia/Majiffy Mafia would be at least not embarrassing for Mafia - though if I were them I'd note that it was a lot of gamble on where town N_M would flop.

[Majiffy]

Im seeing lia justin maf reinoe wolf.

Waited to see if justin would hop on lia. His lack of a hop makes me see team.

[Justin Playfair]

Not voting lia means I want to catch scum today, and voting you means I want to catch the wolf most of all.

[Thor665]

Mafia seems really excited to roll the dice on a 66% - which wwill likely be a 33% because they're too derp to take an assured 50% for...some reason.

[Thor665]

I guess math tells them a risky 13% gain is worth pursuing at the risk of a likely 17% loss.
Oh, math, why don't they pay attention to what you're telling them?

[Thor665]

Oh, and just to re-state. I'm not voting without a claimed Mafia to sheep.

So Mafia needs to sell a town player, or get the Wolf to back their play...good luck with your odds on a safe lynch with that strategy, Mafia. Your play is *brilliant*.

Please claim, I'm trying to help you.

[Majiffy]

Oh, and just to re-state. I'm not voting without a claimed Mafia to sheep

[Thor665]

It's a good strategy for both Town and the Mafia. So I understand your frustration if you're the Wolf.

[Marquis]

kylie minogue kylie minogue kylie minogue - the gathering

---

votecount 4.12!!

Majiffy (2) ::

Justin Playfair, reinoe (L-2)

reinoe (2) ::

Lia, Majiffy (L-2)

Lia (1) ::

Not_Mafia (L-3)

not voting (1) ::

Thor665

deadline is <6 hours from this post ::

(expired on 2014-06-09 16:00:00)

with 6 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch!!

[Thor665]

Worst case for town at this point is that we no lynch. And that doesn't actually affect town's win percentages.
The other worst case is town lynch and Wolf kills town for a Mafia win...but there's not much we can do about that, as it's a risk we take in going for our best win chance also - plus, the odds of Wolf hitting town on his shot are pretty minimal.

[Majiffy]

It's a good strategy for both Town and the Mafia. So I understand your frustration if you're the Wolf.

I was ing your flat refusal to vote which is incredibly dumb.

[Not_Mafia]

Yeah scumpartners don't sit on such a ridiculous wagon like this

VOTE: Reinoe

[Not_Mafia]

@Justin You seem to have invested a lot of time thinking about the optimal strategy for mafia

[reinoe]

Since I'm town, what is everyone's back-up plan for my mislynch?

[Not_Mafia]

She was the announcer in this game.

I had a quick look at that but couldn't see what you were referring to. Was that the only link you had?

Look at the announcements at daystart, unfortunately ISOing is useless for mafia purposes on there so it's a matter of finding daystarts manually

[Thor665]

It's a good strategy for both Town and the Mafia. So I understand your frustration if you're the Wolf.

I was ing your flat refusal to vote which is incredibly dumb.

It really isn't, unless your argument is still that any scum lynch is as good to town as any other...and even then I'm not sure how I'm particularly affecting that chance regardless.

[Thor665]

So with the current Reinoe wagon. N_M and Majiffy are pretty obv. not Mafia with Lia. SO they Might be Mafia together, and the only way that wagon is a good one is if Lia is town.
So, pretty much Majiffy has to be thinking Reinoe is not Wolf...unless he's given up on his Lia/Justin theory.

@Not_Mafia - you were arguing with me earlier that Reinoe wasn't a likely wolf, what changed?

[Not_Mafia]

Well I realised I was off in my Justin/Lia not likely thing and a Justin/Reinoe mafia aren't going to be sat on that wagon like that. And that leaves me with Majiffy or Reinoe wolf. Meaning I either have to believe Majiffy co-ordinated a massive and unrepentant bus or Kat managed to interact with her partner in a way that didn't look like distancing. And I consider the latter more likely.

Also pointing out that Lia has expressed desire in both a Reinoe and a Majiffy lynch, so she can easily make herself kingmaker here in which lynch ends up being offered to you.

[Lia]

I'd really rather not. I'm sticking with reinoe and hoping Justin or Thor will vote there.

[Justin Playfair]

I want Majiffy because I think Majiffy's the wolf. I will vote Reinoe only as a last resort and only because I believe lynching mafia is better than lynching no scum at all.

[reinoe]

Right now?
I'm Mafia MVP at this point of the game.

This should be exploited out of context.

But it remains true - I am the Mafia MVP right now, because I'm trying to save their wincon.

Hellooooo! Earth to Mafia! A wolf is going to eat you!

Looks like this lynch is going through unless I take the odds. I'm mafia and I know majiffy is not mafia.

[Justin Playfair]

Either way, I guess, Thor dies tonight. Still time today to lynch the actual wolf, though. The first night kills only really make sense for Majiffy-wolf. Not_mafia is overplaying the resistance to the Ninja lynch, which would be pretty obvious to anyone reading the day in thread, and disregards the very simple calculus of how Ninja could best serve the wolf cause. And the answer to that would have been by dying. That would have been as true to me as it was to Majiffy.

Yeah, Not_Mafia, I've thought a lot about the wolf's motivations and strategy to victory, too. Thor, if you want to be alive tomorrow vote Majiffy. Not_Mafia, really, it's okay. You're not going to give yourself away by putting your vote on the wolf.