Micro 739 - Nano-Multiball (Game Over)

[boring]

I have about an hour, and then I won't be back until after deadline. I plan to hammer on my way out, unless there are reasonable objections.

[Vedith]

VOTE: Assemble

Scum flip we still lynch Boring.
Town flip - other scum kill Boring and hope Boring hits scum.

[BTD6_maker]

Day 1 VC 5

Assemblerotws: lizardqueen, Umlaut, Vedith -

LYNCH

Not Voting: Assemblerotws, boring

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-08-24 21:30:00)

With 5 players, it's 3 to lynch!

[BTD6_maker]

Assemblerotws was lynched!

Spoiler: Assemblerotws's Role PM

Vanilla Townie

Welcome, Assemblerotws. You are a

Vanilla Townie

.

You have no special abilities.

You win when all threats to the town are eliminated.

The game thread is here.

Please confirm your role by replying with your role name.

Night 1 begins! You have (expired on 2017-08-26 17:45:00) to submit any Night actions.

[BTD6_maker]

Vedith was killed!

Spoiler: Vedith's Role PM

Mafia Goon

Welcome, Vedith. You are a

Mafia Goon

.

If a Townie is lynched on Day 1, you must compulsively kill one other player. If you do not submit a kill, I will randomly choose your target.

You win when both the Town and the Werewolf have been eliminated, or nothing can stop this from occurring.

You draw with the Werewolf if both of you are alive at the end of Night 1.

The game thread is here.

Please confirm your role by replying with your role name.

Day 2 has started!

[BTD6_maker]

Day 2 VC 1

Not Voting: Umlaut, lizardqueen, boring

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-09-03 16:00:00)

With 3 players, it's 2 to lynch!

[Umlaut]

Well that's something.

We can conclude Vedith didn't target the wolf. Who would Vedith have targeted? From what he said aloud we would assume boring, but then Vedith should have wanted to lynch town, so...

[lizardqueen]

Some thoughts off the top off my head - not really organised, more thinking out loud as I'm not sure who the scum is:

- If Vedith targeted boring, Umlaut is scum. If he targeted anyone else, boring is.
*By directing scum to kill boring on a town flip, was Vedith subtely trying to set up a situation where the other scum hit boring, thus getting the joint win? If so, Umlaut!scum ignored him.
- boring talked yesterday about why scum should want to lynch town (i'd been assuming that they wanted to aim for scum as rhat what I think they'd want to do as scum). If scum wasn't aiming for the other scum yesterday then my other reads change:
- Boring yesterday was very wishy-washy in her reads, leaving herself open to going one way or another. When I thought that scum would by actively scumhunting, this seemed like it could be town hesitation. If scum were aiming for a mislynch, then this fits better into classic scum tactics.
*Would scum boring out that she was aiming for town though when others were assuming that the scum would be hunting for each other?
*Umlaut seemed to believe that going for scum would be best for scum, only to redo the math when boring points out otherwise. This is important to analyse with his first two posts:
[*] Going into the game, if Umlaut thought lynching town had the best outcome for town, then he would be thinking that lynching scum has the best outcome for scum. After realising his mistake, he recalculates that lynching scum has the better ev for town. This should mean therefore that lynching town has the better ev for scum; however, he does not seem to be aware of this. Either he failed to realise this and stuck to his old assumption, or he was deliberately attempting to fool the other players.

[lizardqueen]

@ Umlaut - can you expand on why you moved you vote from ne to Assemble yesterday?

[Umlaut]

"Lynching scum" doesn't mean the same thing for town and scum. For us it means lynching mafia

or

werewolf; for e.g. mafia it means lynching the werewolf. It's entirely possible in an EV sense for a setup to make it in town's and mafia's joint interest to lynch a werewolf, even though that turns out not to be the case in this particular setup. So "failed to realize this" doesn't follow since there is nothing incompatible about "it's in town's interest to lynch mafia or werewolf" and "it's in mafia's interest to lynch a werewolf."

I moved my vote because given you weren't being lynched anyway I wanted to be sure it was Assembler.

[boring]

I think Vedith genuinely thought I was the other scum.

He didn't actually push very hard to lynch me, or at least he didn't really attempt to persuade anyone else of his read. Nevertheless, he really only targeted me yesterday. He wouldn't have done all that as scum, if he intended for me to make it to LYLO with him. It's pretty ballsy, if you think about it.

The question is, which of you is most likely to kill Vedith? Was it an attempted frame-up (I doubt it, as it was just too obtuse, and neither of you seem to be setting that up), or did Vedith just look really scummy to one of you? I think scum would definitely benefit from seeking to kill scum because to do otherwise is to risk a tie.

This small a roster, it's harder for me to draw the connections I usually depend on for gamesolving.

[boring]

Umlaut, we discussed this briefly yesterday, but I'm not really accustomed to players (even scum) "buddying" me. Now, I get that town sometimes identify one another and work together, but it's never happened to me while I was town. I've had a primarily townie read on you this game, despite this oddity, but I'd like to understand your motivation a bit better.

[boring]

lizardqueen, you seem pretty thick-skinned about being suspected as scum, and you've been a major content-contributor, but some of your reactions have seemed unnatural to me. Could you give me a link to two games you've played on this site? I'd really like to review one (preferably smaller games) where you were town and another where you were scum. I know I can dive for myself, but it will help me to see the ones you've picked. If you don't mind.

[lizardqueen]

@ Umlaut - I understand that, I just thought that in your #63 where you refer to scum ev as 16/27 you meant for an overall scum win, which I presume you already should have know was higher with a town lynch. That was because I worked out 16/27 for an overall scum win after a town lynch rather than for a particular scum, but thinking about it I think I ran the numbers wrong, so ignore me. >.>

@ boring - Saying that Vedith wouldn't have wanted to go to lylo with you after openly suspecting you - wouldn't it be more risky for him to kill you then, since people might assume that he was the one who did it? If you're chosing someone to take to lylo, wouldn't the person you've been suspecting a good choice since you have a reason to push them?

What do you mean by being thick-skinned about being suspected as scum? Are you referring to my line about how if Vedith shot you, Umlaut is scum and vice versa? That's obviously only from my point of view; I said it so it explains where my analysis is coming from.

If you want links to my games just view my topics from my profile; I've only played three games here so there's not exactly much to pick from. Lie Detecters is my most recent game and my first time ever playing scum, I'm a town mason in BIOLOGY.

-----

Currently inclined towards boring as the scum but that's definitely not set in stone.

[boring]

@ boring - Saying that Vedith wouldn't have wanted to go to lylo with you after openly suspecting you - wouldn't it be more risky for him to kill you then, since people might assume that he was the one who did it? If you're chosing someone to take to lylo, wouldn't the person you've been suspecting a good choice since you have a reason to push them?

Remember my primary point: I think Vedith assumed I was scum. He could get town cred for scum!boring flip, and pit you two against each other.

Thinking about it again, I made a

huge

mistake in my conspiracy theory (I remembered it later in the same fucking post! Actually, you didn't notice it either, so makes me feel a little better) I forgot that if both scum had hit their mark they'd have just tied and there'd be no today.

So there'd be no need to play off my death. If he had successfully killed me, the game would have been over (because that would have meant the other scum had aimed at town too).

What do you mean by being thick-skinned about being suspected as scum? Are you referring to my line about how if Vedith shot you, Umlaut is scum and vice versa? That's obviously only from my point of view; I said it so it explains where my analysis is coming from.

I had meant thick-skinned like you weren't simply suspecting players simply because they were suspecting you. You have been a bit off, as I've already mentioned, but you haven't been particularly prone to OMGUS.

If you want links to my games just view my topics from my profile; I've only played three games here so there's not exactly much to pick from. Lie Detecters is my most recent game and my first time ever playing scum, I'm a town mason in BIOLOGY.

I'll look at those. I just need to understand if the vibe I'm getting is your personality (NAI) or if something actually is "off".

Currently inclined towards boring as the scum but that's definitely not set in stone.

Suspect me all you want, but please don't vote until we've all three had some time to work things out a little more. I'm sure you understand that a single TvT vote will lose the game.

[lizardqueen]

Hmm - why do you think Vedith was so clear in his suspicion of you if your theory was incorrect? And what do you think of the possibility that he was directing the other scum to aim at you for a joint win?

Saying I'm thick skinned because I haven't been OMGUSing - that's actually really funny because I think I'm someone prone to omgus so I've deliberately been trying to avoid it this game. I guess it worked too well haha. Normally I'd probably have scumread Umlaut just for voting for me, but I've been doing my best to keep a cool head.

Don't worry, there's absolutely no way I plan on voting yet. My reads on you and Umlaut are still up in the air.

[boring]

Hmm - why do you think Vedith was so clear in his suspicion of you if your theory was incorrect? And what do you think of the possibility that he was directing the other scum to aim at you for a joint win?

I meant, I realized that there's no way the game would have made it to Day 2 if Vedith had successfully NK'd me. That's because it would mean the other scum didn't hit Vedith, and they would have tied (we'd have lost). So from Vedith's perspective, again, assuming he thought I was the other scum, I'd have flipped scum, and he'd go to Day 2 looking like town. At worst, from my [revised] theory of his perspective, he'd hit me, I'd flip town, and he'd tie with the other scum.

I don't know the nuances of site rules to confirm, but I think players are required to try to achieve their win-condition, as opposed to a draw? We'd have to ask the mod after the game to confirm that, I guess. But still, why aim to tie when you can win? So I think it goes back to: he really did scumread me, and was just setting things up to snag the win today.

However, I think I've spent enough time on this theory. If there's something still confusing about my thought process, and it will help you sort me, feel free to bring it up. Otherwise, i think I've picked this bone dry.

[Umlaut]

Umlaut, we discussed this briefly yesterday, but I'm not really accustomed to players (even scum) "buddying" me. Now, I get that town sometimes identify one another and work together, but it's never happened to me while I was town. I've had a primarily townie read on you this game, despite this oddity, but I'd like to understand your motivation a bit better.

I mean... I sort of instinctively townread people if their reads match mine across the board (assuming I'm town, which I am) so I've instinctively townread you for that reason. I was more sure of this when you responded by being

suspicious

instead of welcoming it. I was maybe exaggerating a little when I said "I am absolutely buddying you," but I did think at that point "okay, boring is town, if we're both town and we both realize that we have a good chance of winning here just by lynching everyone else"

Most games where I've added any value as town, it was by being part of the townbloc, so I was hoping to form one. Though I admit I do have some healthy lylo paranoia now.

I don't know the nuances of site rules to confirm, but I think players are required to try to achieve their win-condition, as opposed to a draw? We'd have to ask the mod after the game to confirm that, I guess. But still, why aim to tie when you can win? So I think it goes back to: he really did scumread me, and was just setting things up to snag the win today.

I think we can ask the mod now, actually. But, if I had to guess his thought process, he did explicitly say a draw is worth half a win. So I'd think it's legitimate play to optimize one's EV, even if that means playing for a more likely draw over a less likely win.

[Umlaut]

To further clarify, the initial basis of my townread on boring was "If someone shares my thought process then it's more likely they also share my role PM."

[boring]

Umlaut, we discussed this briefly yesterday, but I'm not really accustomed to players (even scum) "buddying" me. Now, I get that town sometimes identify one another and work together, but it's never happened to me while I was town. I've had a primarily townie read on you this game, despite this oddity, but I'd like to understand your motivation a bit better.

I mean... I sort of instinctively townread people if their reads match mine across the board (assuming I'm town, which I am) so I've instinctively townread you for that reason. I was more sure of this when you responded by being

suspicious

instead of welcoming it. I was maybe exaggerating a little when I said "I am absolutely buddying you," but I did think at that point "okay, boring is town, if we're both town and we both realize that we have a good chance of winning here just by lynching everyone else"

Most games where I've added any value as town, it was by being part of the townbloc, so I was hoping to form one. Though I admit I do have some healthy lylo paranoia now.

That makes sense. It also makes sense to be paranoid now. My problem is that I know one of the two of you has to be scum but I'm not finding either of you particularly scummy. That's not a comfortable place for me to be. I normally have more scum reads than there are slots to fill them. I'll work on this over the next few days and share my thoughts.

I don't know the nuances of site rules to confirm, but I think players are required to try to achieve their win-condition, as opposed to a draw? We'd have to ask the mod after the game to confirm that, I guess. But still, why aim to tie when you can win? So I think it goes back to: he really did scumread me, and was just setting things up to snag the win today.

I think we can ask the mod now, actually. But, if I had to guess his thought process, he did explicitly say a draw is worth half a win. So I'd think it's legitimate play to optimize one's EV, even if that means playing for a more likely draw over a less likely win.

We might as well, if that's allowed during the game.

@mod - would scum be playing to their win condition if they sought to tie (as opposed to trying to win outright)?

[BTD6_maker]

Day 2 VC 2

Not Voting: Umlaut, lizardqueen, boring

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-09-03 16:00:00)

@mod - would scum be playing to their win condition if they sought to tie (as opposed to trying to win outright)?

A draw is counted as half a win; as such, playing for a draw (as opposed to a win) when a win seems unlikely is allowed.

With 3 players, it's 2 to lynch!

[Umlaut]

Like I want to be cautious and talk and think but I also kind of want to just vote lizardqueen because I'm pretty sure that's what I'm going to do in the end anyway.

[Umlaut]

I'd much rather lose to boring than lizardqueen.

[boring]

If you voted lizardqueen right now, she'll have to vote you, and I'll be stuck choosing between you. That means you'd still have to talk, think, and whatnot to help (or "help") me sort things out. So you might as well cut straight to the thinking and talking bit.

---

So, Lizardqueen's meta was probably a dead end. Her scum game (viewtopic.php?f=11&t=72345) was slightly more like this than like her town game (viewtopic.php?f=84&t=68502). She's a little less awkward in both of those than here, though. She was slightly more convivial in her town game, and more analytical in her scum game. Neither felt quite like this game. Her newbie town game 4 years ago actually felt the most like this one in tone and depth. (viewtopic.php?f=50&t=30141)

[lizardqueen]

Sorry for not posting, had a busy couple of days. Liking boring's latest post, I also endorse talking and thinking.

Umlaut's first post of the day brings up the topic of 'who did Vedith shoot' but leaves his conclusion as vague - have you had any more thoughts on this throughout the day Umlaut?