Mini 1518: Death Note Mafia (GAME OVER!)

[T S O]

Experience that Kats tried this game for a while.

[InflatablePie]

There isn't a redirector, otherwise they would keep redirecting to guilties to line up MLs better. Also don't know why they'd redirect onto themselves, too risky.

So there's a framer, or kuribo is scum who gambited with one known partner to get mastin lynched (thought he was traitor; town cred? Maybe role cop?). If there's a framer, what's the interaction with tracker? And there is a 3 shot cop and two shot tracker? Plus BP, traitor, lover, neighbors?

Hop and kuribo are looking worse by setup analysis, SMP is scummy, TSO is prob town because neighboring scum (he claimed Jason neighbor right?) and a traitor seems unbalanced. OGML is lurky but might be town. Kats town by PoE.

[InflatablePie]

Hop might be town due to needing to know mastin's role name which makes kuribo look worse...

Or he could be scum, interesting interaction with tracker in that case. Maybe unbalanced though.

Hmm.

[Hopkirk]

Most likely case is kuribo gambitted as he thought mastin was a pr, it was worth the loss at their numbers and that he could avoid it. You're really letting him avoid it...

[InflatablePie]

Wait. Hop is more likely scum. Will explain when home. Don't quick lynch kuribo pls

[Hopkirk]

We should lynch kuri actual-since he's been faking insp.

[Katsuki]

We should lynch kuri actual-since he's been faking insp.

You guys have a framer don't you.

[Katsuki]

Nevermind, I asked that yesterday.

I can't see someone being that aggressive unless he is certain that he has scum pegged, so for now kuribo is town for me.

I still think that my initial pegging of herself or kat is true, those votes still don't sit well with me. Now that herself is dead and is town I think kat is scum.

VOTE: katsuki

Gotta love those "X OR Y" is scum statements. Need to chain those mislynches don't you.

[Katsuki]

Forgot

VOTE: HOP

[kuribo]

We should lynch kuri actual-since he's been faking insp.

I ain't faked a damn thing

I'm resigned to my fate, though.

[Hopkirk]

When kuribo claiming Mastin was inspected as town one of them became scum. Mastin flipped town seemed like a smaller loss than an inspector flipping town. Now kuriboh doesn't even need to fake anymore results/nice attempt kuri.

Though i'll be voted as people fakeclaiming cop have an obv 0% chance of being scum-the simplest solution is that they got redirected in mysterious ways (actually it's not).

Kuribo: Please claim your name too and form of results.

[T S O]

We should lynch kuri actual-since he's been faking insp.

I ain't faked a damn thing

I'm resigned to my fate, though.

Explain why you targeted specific people.

[SMP]

Nevermind, I asked that yesterday.

I can't see someone being that aggressive unless he is certain that he has scum pegged, so for now kuribo is town for me.

I still think that my initial pegging of herself or kat is true, those votes still don't sit well with me. Now that herself is dead and is town I think kat is scum.

VOTE: katsuki

Gotta love those "X OR Y" is scum statements. Need to chain those mislynches don't you.

You're not going to be a mislynch, I guarantee that.

[Katsuki]

Nevermind, I asked that yesterday.

I can't see someone being that aggressive unless he is certain that he has scum pegged, so for now kuribo is town for me.

I still think that my initial pegging of herself or kat is true, those votes still don't sit well with me. Now that herself is dead and is town I think kat is scum.

VOTE: katsuki

Gotta love those "X OR Y" is scum statements. Need to chain those mislynches don't you.

You're not going to be a mislynch, I guarantee that.

Teehee. Just like how Herself was scum right? Go die.

[SMP]

Nevermind, I asked that yesterday.

I can't see someone being that aggressive unless he is certain that he has scum pegged, so for now kuribo is town for me.

I still think that my initial pegging of herself or kat is true, those votes still don't sit well with me. Now that herself is dead and is town I think kat is scum.

VOTE: katsuki

Gotta love those "X OR Y" is scum statements. Need to chain those mislynches don't you.

You're not going to be a mislynch, I guarantee that.

Teehee. Just like how Herself was scum right? Go die.

Oh lol, quit acting like a Goon.

[Katsuki]

lul

UNVOTE, VOTE: SMP

[Hopkirk]

Katsuki: Why is kuribo not scum.
This is to everyone actually.

[T S O]

Katsuki no!

[kuribo]

Kuribo: Please claim your name too and form of results.

I've already claimed both of these, stop pretending like I haven't

Just guilty or not guilty, investigating whether someone is connected to Kira

Btw I'm Aiber

There's some flavor about faking my death to draw out Kira's associates but for the sake of brevity I'm an x shot cop

[kuribo]

Explain why you targeted specific people.

targeted Herself because I wanted to make sure mollie was town, I consider them to be very strong players
targeted mastin because he was tunelling me and I wanted to know if it was scum motivated
targeted pie because as I said, he'd been white noise to me

[Hopkirk]

So the result was "Your target is not connected to kira", something of that form or anything missing there?

[kuribo]

When kuribo claiming Mastin was inspected as town one of them became scum. Mastin flipped town seemed like a smaller loss than an inspector flipping town. Now kuriboh doesn't even need to fake anymore results/nice attempt kuri.

Though i'll be voted as people fakeclaiming cop have an obv 0% chance of being scum-the simplest solution is that they got redirected in mysterious ways (actually it's not).

Kuribo: Please claim your name too and form of results.

so, seriously, are you the framer?

[kuribo]

So the result was "Your target is not connected to kira", something of that form or anything missing there?

i'm not about to directly quote my mod results and get modkilled you moron

[InflatablePie]

The Hopkira Case

Point 1 - JasonWazza

Jason made 8 posts. One saying he was catching up, one saying 'post incoming soonish', two posts directed at fuzzy, and one about Herself being scum. The other three posts are calling Hop scum, the major one being:

I haven't read the whole game so far, but i will say this

HOPKIRK SHOULDN'T BE BEING TOWN READ FOR HIS CLAIM IF YOU HAVE EVER EVER EVER EVER WATCHED DEATHNOTE.

Naomi doesn't commit suicide BECAUSE Ray Penber dies, she commits suicide because LIGHT MAKES HER.

And L even says when she comes up shortly after that she'd be the type to seek revenge not to commit suicide.

This is a good point that I disregarded earlier given the odds of scum+town lovers.

And then N1 Jason died. Okay, it could have been PR hunting or something, right?

Point 2 - ThAdmiral

ThAd believes Hop's claim, and calls kuribo scum. He also made this post:

I know the meta right now is "don't pay any attention to nk's" but that is why scum pretty much ALWAYS kill someone who is on to them. Since jason said basically nothing else day 1 to indicate town pr/played strong enough to be seen as a strong town read this is pretty much the only clue as to why he might have been killed. Scumpoints to herself and hopkirk.

... which, you'd think would incriminate kuribo. It can go either way, really. I'm leaning towards Hopkirk, due to ThAd having a townread but yet pointing out the fact Jason died. Despite not many people analyzing townreads, scum usually don't kill

everyone

that suspects them. Besides, at this time, most of us still thought Hop was town.

Meanwhile, Herself's dying words were basically 'whatever you do, lynch ThAd'. Prime mislynch target, right? ... Nope, he died instead. Interesting, two nights without mastin dying and the players that died either questioned the Hop claim or were aware of the oddness of the N1 kill.

Point 3 - The Claim and Mastin Theory

Let's look at the claim again, piece-by-piece (paraphrasing, not quoting, because the site is breaking):

Naomi Misora, Town Reflexive Lover
If MT dies, except by lynching, I die as well.
MT does not know this.
There is some event that makes me not his lover that I am not aware of.

So basically, a one-way lover for NKs only. So if MT/mastin dies at night, Hopkirk dies as well.

Here comes the stuff that I should have recognized day fucking one. I'm sorry Herself and mastin and everyone in the dead QT; I'm bad for not noticing this sooner.

First off, why did Hopkirk claim one-way town lover? Had I been in his situation, I wouldn't have claimed. I would have taken the lynch and saved my (presumably) town partner. I understand it was Day One, but we now know there's no SK/vig and mastin was most likely town. Why not claim two-way lovers and try and bait the NK himself? Claiming one-way lover just ensures scum kill your partner... but most importantly...

Why didn't mastin die?

Mastin was left alive for a reason.

Even if people thought he was scum, scum could just kill him and get an extra townie dead. If the kill failed, well, they know there's a doc. It's possible the scumteam thought mastin was the traitor. Remember, there's only two scum since we have a traitor and survivor flipped. So they left mastin alive to frame him? Why not just kill him and get the two-for-one? Even if kuribo is the scum here and gambited with only one known partner, they could have just killed him N1 and saved the trouble. It's by far the smarter play.

Because they couldn't kill Mastin.

Hopkirk would die if they killed mastin.

Since apparently flavor

is

relevant this game, my theory is that Hopkirk is Light. He's lovers with Ray (

*waves flaming torch at fangirls, hissing*

), which makes sense flavor-wise because if Light just up and kills Ray immediately, he's 'dead' as well. We also have two investigative roles without a protection role: making a scum lover to a Tracker is like having a pseudo-doc. And if the scum do have a framer, they can just use that instead (since I imagine it would give false results to a track as well as a cop) to try and balance the fact that they can't kill the Tracker unless they get him lynched.

Lastly, there's an event that makes them not lovers that Hop claims he does not know of. My guess is that it's recruiting the Traitor. If scum recruit the traitor, the two are not lovers anymore, allowing them to kill the Tracker without repercussion. Going back to flavor analysis, if Light recruits Misa, she can kill Ray for him and he doesn't get caught.

Point 4 - Final Thoughts

Let's even step away from flavor for a second. Hopkirk was scummy early D1 and got run up to L-1. He then hasn't done anything of note. He's stopped giving vote reasons because 'other players can get away with it, why can't I' and even about-faced on MT the second he could, despite calling him strong town because of his role PM. It doesn't feel townie.

We have a mislynch. There are two scenarios today:

- We lynch kuribo. kuribo is scum with one other player (not Hopkirk), who killed Jason, ThAd and Om for unknown reasons (not town-mastin, which would have killed Hopkirk as well). He has one known partner. On D3, after killing not-mastin, he fakeclaims x-shot cop to get mastin lynched. Had the traitor not died, it would have been LYLO today and kuribo would most likely be lynched today. Maybe he thought Hop was the traitor.

- We lynch Hopkirk. Hopkirk is scum with one other player (not kuribo), who killed Jason for noticing his claim, ThAd for noticing the N1 kill, and Om for unknown reasons. He has one known partner. He, nor his scumbuddy, can kill mastin without dying themselves. Instead, they Frame mastin after the Herself lynch goes through in the hopes that he'll be lynched D3, and it works.

If Hopkirk flips town, kuribo gets lynched tomorrow. It has to be one of those two, there's no other logical reason to keep mastin's slot alive otherwise. If they're both town and scum left mastin alive plus framed correctly, we just got outplayed plain and simple. As a final point, I'd rather have scum-kuribo to deal with in LYLO than town-Hopkirk even if I'm wrong.

Calling my shot. Light Yagami, corner pocket.

vote Hopkirk

kuribo will die tonight probably and thanks to him claiming scanning me, assuming he's town and I'm right about this, we have confirmed town for the rest of the game (we get another ML tomorrow and I'm alive at 3p LYLO worst-case). Unless scum really want to waste a night trying to kill me, but they're in a bad enough spot with the traitor dead sooooo yay. If kuribo *is* scum and this was a crazy gambit, disregard this.

[Katsuki]

Which corner pocket?

UNVOTE, VOTE: HOP