NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)
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Empire Mafia Scum
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Sakura Hana She/HerSurvivorShe/Her
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KoreanBBQ Goon
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Here's my post that shows Bert pushing on SSK but not committing to said wagon and his reaction.
And here's Gen's post (I misremembered he used "damning stuff" and not "smoking gun"In post 6241, KoreanBBQ wrote:Is this Bert sum or Bert town?
In post 3986, KoreanBBQ wrote:
hedging. Agree with Gens "point" so it gives him the flexibility to hop on a SSK wagon if it happens.In post 3912, Bert wrote:
Never seen it happen.In post 3909, Generic wrote:That's a point. SSK claimed doc by lived through the night? When does that EVER happen?
vote mafiaSSK
still pushing the idea that SSK is scum but not committing to the wagon.In post 3924, Bert wrote: also, SSK's tone and wording of claiming rings off. "I'm not getting lynched this time, no I'm not" and then "I am the doctor" - hard to explain, a tonality thing. However, he sounded like his claim was full of gold medal peepee in Ace Attorney and he was scum there, and evidently he is a lurker everywhere - see that Title thread where he got nommed for lurkerscum...In post 4916, Bert wrote:
How very annoying lolIn post 4323, KoreanBBQ wrote:Bert is scum 'cause he was pushing on the SSK wagon but didn't join it.
In post 6251, Generic wrote:Did he refuse to claim even at L-1? I don't remember it going down like that, but if that's true SC are fucking morons.
But that's for post game. As to your bert case, I already have my concerns about the slot, but you are in luck with the replacement. He is someone I have a decent amount of experience playing in games with on MTGS and have also hydra'd with him. If Proph has inherited a scum a lot I will know. And part of it will be if he stays quiet for long periods of time...
So with regards to your post I can see where you are coming from althoughit's not exactly damning stuff, but I have my eye on what Proph goes from here.-
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Sakura Hana She/HerSurvivorShe/Her
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Sakura Hana She/HerSurvivorShe/Her
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Titus She/herMoon WalkerShe/her
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Sakura, if you believe I am scum with Prophy, call my "bluff" and help me "bus".
That being said, there is no logical way Generic and I are scum together. If Generic got his lynch through and I was scum it would bone his team. Respond to that or quit pushing me as scum.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
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All hail the Scum Empress!-
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Ms Marangal We the Purple
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I say, that is the kind of WIFOMic bus Generic lives for.In post 6880, Titus wrote:Sakura, if you believe I am scum with Prophy, call my "bluff" and help me "bus".
That being said, there is no logical way Generic and I are scum together. If Generic got his lynch through and I was scum it would bone his team. Respond to that or quit pushing me as scum.Show-
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Sakura Hana She/HerSurvivorShe/Her
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That looks a lot like the cross bus we did on Duck Duck Goose tbh.In post 6880, Titus wrote:That being said, there is no logical way Generic and I are scum together. If Generic got his lynch through and I was scum it would bone his team. Respond to that or quit pushing me as scumI bloom in spring?
Please be nice to me.-
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Titus She/herMoon WalkerShe/her
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Generic would have a plan if his "bus" worked. If he actually gets me lynched, he loses. It's one thing to say wifom. It is quite another to leave his team with no out.
Generic plus 1 mafia alive (best for them that is plausible).
You've then got four heavy likely town that are not likely to be lynched. (masons, geists, cowbell)
That leaves 8 plausible lynch targets.
Generic's team cannot kill Cowbell, bc if they do Generic is lynched.
The scumteam need to get kills. They have to kill right damn near everynight to make it near lylo.
Duck duck goose is a setup Sak. Also, tbh implies you have not been honest. What game are you referencing?ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
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VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.
All hail the Scum Empress!-
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Titus She/herMoon WalkerShe/her
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Yeah, lynch Proph scum.In post 6876, Sakura Hana wrote:Does anyone wanna do anything other than sit here and fiddle our thumbs the whole day phase?ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy
VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.
All hail the Scum Empress!-
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Sakura Hana She/HerSurvivorShe/Her
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Check the link?In post 6705, Sakura Hana wrote:
YesIn post 6701, Titus wrote:you really think Generic and I can be scumbuddies
Even tho the question wasn't asked to me.I bloom in spring?
Please be nice to me.-
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Empire Mafia Scum
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pieguyn
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Prophylaxis
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goodmorning AnySurvivorAny
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Look, you keep saying this, but with 1 or 2 other people on the team it doesn't exactly ruin anything. Just makes it slightly harder and leaves open the possibility that Gen isn't lynched.In post 6880, Titus wrote:That being said, there is no logical way Generic and I are scum together. If Generic got his lynch through and I was scum it would bone his team. Respond to that or quit pushing me as scum.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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I want you to explain this:In post 6832, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
Is my answer actually supposed to be "me" or do you have a question for me that I missed during my selective reading.In post 6830, Prophylaxis wrote:Answer me.
More to the point, who do you want to lynch toDay and why?
Not a huge fan of "You're quite terrible at this" from SAD - it's a potshot, with no attempt at trying to discern Sakura's alignment.
Might need to take a look at D1 votals from this site - it's fairly effective on my site.zMuffinMan wrote:it's not actually as rare as you're making it out to be, especially in large games (i've seen much larger wagons that were entirely town on a townie - and games lost because of poor VCA like this).
Looking at the last five Normals, with Day 1 lynches:
Apocalypse Mafia (townlynch) - TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN
WWE Mafia (scumlynch) - MAFIA, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, MAFIA
Chime Mafia (scumlynch) - TOWN, TOWN, SK, TOWN, MAFIA
FHF Mafia (scumlynch) - TOWN, MAFIA, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN
C&B Mafia (scumlynch) - TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN
Gotham Underground Mafia (townlynch) - TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, MAFIA, MAFIA
This site:
NY 167 (townlynch) -MC Maraca,orcinus_theoriginal,Cephrir,PeregrineV,JacobSavage
NY 166 (townlynch) -dopog, Concombre, The Purple Rose, notscience, Fegelein
NY 165 (townlynch) -Rift Adrift, Zdenek,KingCrabd,Shadi1337, Baby Spice
NY 164 (townlynch) -Desperado, Kublai Khan, Syryana, Nachomamma8,Cephrir
NY 163 (scumlynch) - ugh, can't be bothered to go through the weird votals for this one
NY 162 (townlynch) - greygnarl - 10 [L-0]Human Destroyer,Bacde, Nobody Special, PeregrineV,petapan
...So yeah, it's really not as poor as you're making it out to be. The only town on town lynches are fairly rare.
Hm, making a mental note of this later.Titus wrote:Prophy, "nice" in that context was used similar to nice try.
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Going to put some more work into this game, now that I've read through. I may or may not read through the rest of the thread.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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I feel like what you mean by vote count analysis doesn't sync with my version of vote count analysisIn post 6818, Titus wrote: Prophy, nice made up stats. Day 1 has a high proportion of town, so town would have to cluster at somepoint. That's why VCA is a starting point but not an endall be all. If it was, the group would lynch Casso and Sakura no questions asked.
And see my Normal stuff if you think they're made up. I can provide you with more examples if you wish.
I'm not cherrypicking; it's simply just basic votal analysis, and it's key to how I scumhunt.In post 6823, Titus wrote:Nice projection Prophy. I never said that vca isn't a vital tool. In fact, I am still annoyed with you for just cherrypicking one point. That's not vca. I am not strawmanning. Defending is not making a strawman. You are strawmanning my responses.
KBBQ, you may not agree with my analysis but being wrong doesn't mean scummy and you know it. You thought geists being scum was also ridculous.
As for why you're strawmanning, my reasons as to why I think you're scum are:
- "Yep, you got me" - Cephir's 154. It indicates self-consciousness.
- "safe" interactions with Cephir and MafiaSSK around the 50-page slot
- Cephir's #1036 fencesitting
- The early wagon on Stuffed Crust, and Cephir's vote on it
..while your response is:
You choose to focus on my votal analysis, and you dismiss/discredit it. That fits the definition of a strawman to me.Titus wrote:Funny how Prophy comes on and just picks the one VC where Cephir looks bad rather than doing the VCA he promised.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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At the moment, my reads are:
Stuffed Crust
Tammy
Desperado
DOMO
RadiantCowbells
Prophylaxis
Ms Marangal
geists
goodmorning
pieguyn
KoreanBBQ
Casso the King of Seals
Norlkaz
Sakura Hana
zMuffinMan
F-16 Fighting Falcon
Ser Arthur Dayne
Titus
Generic
MafiaSSK
/really/ want to sort out that Not Town pile, but then I would have to slog through this thread. I'll see if I can develop a better read on Casso/Norlkaz/Sakura/zMuffin at some point.
Are we dealing with a five or four man scumteam? On MTGS it would be five, or four + SK; not sure about 'Scum standards.
KoreanBBQ(6) - Brian Skies,Tammy,MafiSSK, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana,pieguyn
Stuffed Crust(2) -Cephrir,KoreanBBQ
MC Maraca(1) -pitoli
Casso the King of Seals (1) - F-BROseidon
geists(1) -Generic
goodmorning(1) - talah
F-BROseidon(1) -Stuffed Crust
Tammy(1) -F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Generic(1) -goodmorning
Not Voting (5) -roflcopter,Desperado,geists,MC Maraca,DOMO
MafiSSK(5) -KoreanBBQ, Sakura Hana,Cephrir,DOMO,pieguyn
KoreanBBQ(4) -MafiSSK, Casso the King of Seals,Generic,roflcopter
MC Maraca(1) -pitoli
Casso the King of Seals (1) - F-BROseidon
Tammy(1) -F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Generic(1) -goodmorning
Not Voting (7) -Desperado,geists, zMuffinMan,MC Maraca, Brian Skies,Stuffed Crust,Tammy
Stuffed Crust(5) -pieguyn,Desperado,DOMO,Cephrir,KoreanBBQ
KoreanBBQ(4) -MafiSSK, Casso the King of Seals,Generic,roflcopter
Casso the King of Seals (1) -geists
DOMO(1) - F-BROseidon
Cephrir(1) -Stuffed Crust
MafiSSK(1) - Sakura Hana
roflcopter(1) -F-16_Fighting_Falcon
MC Maraca(1) -pitoli
Generic(1) -goodmorning
DOMO(5) - F-BROseidon,Desperado, Sakura Hana,Stuffed Crust,Generic
KoreanBBQ(3) -MafiSSK, Casso the King of Seals,roflcopter
Stuffed Crust(3) -pieguyn,Cephrir,KoreanBBQ
Casso the King of Seals (2) -geists,DOMO
roflcopter(1) -F-16_Fighting_Falcon
MC Maraca(1) -pitoli
Generic(1) -goodmorning
Not Voting (4) - zMuffinMan,MC Maraca, Brian Skies,Tammy
Stuffed Crust(5) -Cephrir,KoreanBBQ, Sakura Hana,DOMO,Desperado
DOMO(3) - F-BROseidon,Generic,pieguyn
KoreanBBQ(3) -MafiSSK, Casso the King of Seals,roflcopter
Desperado(1) -Stuffed Crust
roflcopter(1) -F-16_Fighting_Falcon
MC Maraca(1) -pitoli
Generic(1) -goodmorning
Not Voting (5) - zMuffinMan,MC Maraca, Brian Skies,Tammy,geists
Casso the King of Seals (5) - zMuffinMan,goodmorning,pieguyn,Generic,Bert
Stuffed Crust(4) - Sakura Hana,DOMO,Desperado,Cephrir
zMuffinMan (3) -Ser Arthur Dayne, Brian Skies,KoreanBBQ
MC Maraca(2) -Tammy, F-BROseidon
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(1) -MC Maraca
Desperado(1) -Stuffed Crust
Not Voting (4) -MafiSSK,F-16_Fighting_Falcon,geists, Casso the King of Seals
Stuffed Crust(6) - Sakura Hana,DOMO,Cephrir,KoreanBBQ,geists,Desperado
Casso the King of Seals (4) - zMuffinMan,goodmorning,pieguyn,Generic
MC Maraca(3) -Tammy, F-BROseidon,Stuffed Crust
Bert(1) - Norlkaz
Sakura Hana (1) - Casso the King of Seals
geists(1) -Bert
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(1) -MC Maraca
Not Voting (3) -MafiSSK,F-16_Fighting_Falcon,Ser Arthur Dayne
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(6) - F-BROseidon,Ser Arthur Dayne,DOMO,MC Maraca, Casso the King of Seals,Bert
Stuffed Crust(4) -Cephrir,Desperado, Sakura Hana,KoreanBBQ
Casso the King of Seals (3) - zMuffinMan,goodmorning,pieguyn
Sakura Hana (1) -geists
MC Maraca(1) -Tammy
goodmorning(1) - Norlkaz
MafiSSK(1) -Generic
Not Voting (3) -MafiSSK,F-16_Fighting_Falcon,Stuffed Crust
Stuffed Crust(6) -Cephrir,Desperado, Sakura Hana,KoreanBBQ,geists,pieguyn
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(6) - F-BROseidon,Ser Arthur Dayne,DOMO,MC Maraca, Casso the King of Seals,Bert
Casso the King of Seals (2) - zMuffinMan,goodmorning
MC Maraca(1) -Tammy
goodmorning(1) - Norlkaz
Not Voting (4) -MafiSSK,F-16_Fighting_Falcon,Stuffed Crust,Generic
Sakura Hana (8) -Tammy, Casso the King of Seals,DOMO,Ser Arthur Dayne, Sakura Hana,geists,Desperado,KoreanBBQ
Casso the King of Seals (3) - zMuffinMan,goodmorning,Generic
Stuffed Crust(2) -Cephrir,pieguyn
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(1) - F-BROseidon
goodmorning(1) - Norlkaz
Not Voting (5) -MafiSSK,F-16_Fighting_Falcon,Stuffed Crust,MC Maraca,Bert
Sakura Hana (10) -Tammy, Casso the King of Seals,DOMO,Ser Arthur Dayne, Sakura Hana,geists,Desperado,KoreanBBQ,MC Maraca,Bert
Casso the King of Seals (3) - zMuffinMan,goodmorning,Generic
Stuffed Crust(2) -Cephrir,pieguyn
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(1) - F-BROseidon
goodmorning(1) - Norlkaz
Not Voting (3) -MafiSSK,F-16_Fighting_Falcon,Stuffed Crust
Stuffed Crust(11) (LYNCH) -Cephrir,geists,Tammy,Desperado,Bert, Sakura Hana,MafiSSK,F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Norlkaz,pieguyn,KoreanBBQ
Casso the King of Seals (3) - zMuffinMan,goodmorning,Generic
MafiSSK(2) - Casso the King of Seals,Ser Arthur Dayne
F-BROseidon(1) -MC Maraca
Sakura Hana (1) -DOMO
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(1) - F-BROseidon
Not Voting (1) -Stuffed Crust
This is all of the five vote wagons on Day 1, where the most benefit can be had to votal analysis.
(ignore the username mangle, going to look at this in my next post to keep them separate)-
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Sakura Hana She/HerSurvivorShe/Her
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Ser Arthur Dayne Jack of All Trades
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Scum:In post 6890, Prophylaxis wrote:More to the point, who do you want to lynch toDay and why?
Prophylaxis
pieguyn*
Town:
Ms Marangal
Casso the King of Seals
Norlkaz
goodmorning
Sakura Hana
Titus
KoreanBBQ
Have to look over:
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
geists
zMuffinMan
*Generic-Pie interaction looks so staged. So, so staged.
It probably has to do with that fact that I already think she's town.In post 6890, Prophylaxis wrote:Not a huge fan of "You're quite terrible at this" from SAD - it's a potshot, with no attempt at trying to discern Sakura's alignment.vezokpiraka: If you are playing on EUNE we can duo.
chesskid3: I play on NA because i enjoy my freedom.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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KoreanBBQ(6) - Brian Skies,Tammy,MafiSSK, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana,pieguyn
This wagon is worth revisiting, though I do believe it was mostly compromised of RVS votes?
Going to use Brain Skies as an excuse to talk about Llamarble.
Honestly surprised that I don't have a read on Llamarble yet, since I got a healthy respect for his game after avidly following Cross Town shenanigans. His scumteam prediction is three town (me/goodmorning/Tammy) and I don't know the alignments of Cephir and Casso.
Looking at his ISO, he defended MafiaSSK pretty hard, but my main problem with Llamarble is that he's just consistently wrong. I'm not exactly sure how it translates to alignment, though. He locked down the scum pretty hard in Cross-Town 2, IIRC. He's just throwing down conclusions and doing stuff without reasoning, and I can't really read someone who doesn't show me his thought processes. Is this how Llamarble usually plays?
Is it too much to ask for:
?Llamarble wrote:I have plenty of towntells I am aware of but cannot fake.
MafiSSK(5) -KoreanBBQ, Sakura Hana,Cephrir,DOMO,pieguyn
KoreanBBQ(4) -MafiSSK, Casso the King of Seals,Generic,roflcopter
This wagon is why I have a townread on KoreanBBQ, plus the fact that he was the counterwagon to MafiaSSK. I'd expect one scum bussing, and Cephrir is the most likely candidate.
All of the scum were on Korean's wagon.
Stuffed Crust(5) -pieguyn,Desperado,DOMO,Cephrir,KoreanBBQ
KoreanBBQ(4) -MafiSSK, Casso the King of Seals,Generic,roflcopter
Casso the King of Seals (1) -geists
Wagon that scumfirmed Titus's slot, IMO. The Day 1 end of vote wagon also doesn't bode well for Titus.
DOMO(5) - F-BROseidon,Desperado, Sakura Hana,Stuffed Crust,Generic
Doesn't tell me much, because Generic was at the tail end of this wagon.
Stuffed Crust(5) -Cephrir,KoreanBBQ, Sakura Hana,DOMO,Desperado
Cephrir/Sakura probable scum, on this.
Casso the King of Seals (5) - zMuffinMan,goodmorning,pieguyn,Generic,Bert
Stuffed Crust(4) - Sakura Hana,DOMO,Desperado,Cephrir
Again, can't get much out of this, considering Generic was voting Casso.
Second wagon is much the same.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(6) - F-BROseidon,Ser Arthur Dayne,DOMO,MC Maraca, Casso the King of Seals,Bert
Stuffed Crust(4) -Cephrir,Desperado, Sakura Hana,KoreanBBQ
Gut says that Stuffed Crust is the town!counterwagon to scum!F-16, though that just might be confirmation bias.
Would look at SAD then Casso in this, or it's possible that all the scum just piled onto SC.
More of the same with the next.
Sakura Hana (8) -Tammy, Casso the King of Seals,DOMO,Ser Arthur Dayne, Sakura Hana,geists,Desperado,KoreanBBQ
Why is Sakura voting herself?
Would want to burn SAD for this, alone.
Sakura Hana (10) -Tammy, Casso the King of Seals,DOMO,Ser Arthur Dayne, Sakura Hana,geists,Desperado,KoreanBBQ,MC Maraca,Bert
...Yeah, that's a ton of town on this wagon, besides SAD.
Stuffed Crust(11) (LYNCH) -Cephrir,geists,Tammy,Desperado,Bert, Sakura Hana,MafiSSK,F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Norlkaz,pieguyn,KoreanBBQ
SCUMMY, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN. Lynch ittttttttt.
I would expect at least two scum in this wagon, including SSK, probably three.
I'll go ahead and do Day 2 soon.-
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Ser Arthur Dayne Jack of All Trades
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Interesting...In post 4693, Generic wrote:Also DOMO, you need to get the geists paranoia out of your head.
In a game this size what are the chances you hit the only role you feasibly will read a scum player as town with?vezokpiraka: If you are playing on EUNE we can duo.
chesskid3: I play on NA because i enjoy my freedom.-
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Ser Arthur Dayne Jack of All Trades
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Ser Arthur Dayne Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
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Example:
Well not shit you expect "at least two scum in this wagon, including SSK, probably three", you already told us you think ceph and f-16 are scum. You have 2 of your scumreads on the wagon, and then claim there are 2 (+mafiassk). Fascinating analysis!In post 6895, Prophylaxis wrote:Stuffed Crust(11) (LYNCH) -Cephrir,geists,Tammy,Desperado,Bert, Sakura Hana,MafiSSK,F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Norlkaz,pieguyn,KoreanBBQ
SCUMMY, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN. Lynch ittttttttt.
I would expect at least two scum in this wagon, including SSK, probably three.vezokpiraka: If you are playing on EUNE we can duo.
chesskid3: I play on NA because i enjoy my freedom.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Can you get more noncommittal than this?In post 6893, Sakura Hana wrote:Nice to see someone see things in an unbiassed way.
Because when I last checked your read on me was:
In post 6878, Sakura Hana wrote:I'm still leaning on Titus-scum, and also Proph-scum, and indeed SAD-scum as well. Hey that's prob. all of them!In post 6894, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
Scum:In post 6890, Prophylaxis wrote:More to the point, who do you want to lynch toDay and why?
Prophylaxis
pieguyn*
Town:
Ms Marangal
Casso the King of Seals
Norlkaz
goodmorning
Sakura Hana
Titus
KoreanBBQ
Have to look over:
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
geists
zMuffinMan
*Generic-Pie interaction looks so staged. So, so staged.
It probably has to do with that fact that I already think she's town.In post 6890, Prophylaxis wrote:Not a huge fan of "You're quite terrible at this" from SAD - it's a potshot, with no attempt at trying to discern Sakura's alignment.Bolded for emphasis.
And then there's me wondering why you have me as a scumread, yet you're not voting me.
Why's it interesting?In post 6896, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
Interesting...In post 4693, Generic wrote:Also DOMO, you need to get the geists paranoia out of your head.
In a game this size what are the chances you hit the only role you feasibly will read a scum player as town with?
I'm clearing people based on good reasons.In post 6897, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:VCA doesn't really work when you already have reads then go in and twists things so they can fit your reads
I go through my scumreads first, then lynch anyone that's a Not Town read that's hanging out with a town crowd.
It's worked for me in dozens of games.
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