Mini 594 - Satin Doll Showdown - {GAME OVER}

[Incognito]

Mizzy, you know at the time that you placed the MafiaSSK vote, I thought that you were placing it simply to get him talking a bit more (i.e. using your vote as a pressure vote). Now that I look back on it though and actually read your post a bit closer, I noticed that you mentioned you would be comfortable with actually

lynching

him in that post:

All of you yesterday who were willing to lynch someone for being useless? *Points to SSK.* I would rather get him replaced but considering that he keeps answering his prods (gnashing of teeth is heard) then I'd be okay

lynching him

.

Vote: SSK

And now recently, you mentioned that you could see only one reason for his active lurking here:

The only reason I could see for him active-lurking was that he felt uncomfortable with what was going on, maybe because his scumbuddy was running a gambit.

I have an issue with the above quote. Back when you placed the SSK vote, it was still very unclear for most of us to determine which of the two (Glork or Tarhalindur) was lying. In that very same post where you voted SSK, you yourself didn't give any clear indication that you believed Glork over Tar or the inverse; you mentioned that you would just like to look at a completely different target. So yeah, I'm having a hard time believing that you were actually thinking what you mentioned in the above quote because in your SSK vote post, you indicated that you were very confused by the two competing claims.

Either way though, even if you did believe Glork over Tarhalindur don't you think your first order of business should have been getting Tarhalindur out of the way in order to determine if the theory you mentioned above (SSK actively lurking because he was feeling uncomfortable with his scumbuddy running a gambit) actually held true? Because suppose this theory didn't hold true and SSK got lynched and turned up town, where would we be today exactly? Glork and Tarhalindur would likely still be alive, and we'd still have no clue as to which of the two we should believe. Also, why aren't you voting for eldarad now if you truly believe SSK was actively lurking due to uncomfortableness with his scumbuddy's false claim? Do you still think this theory is likely true?

[Erg0]

Ok, I think I've got my access issues sorted out now, so I'm back in action. Let's start with the traditional DSA (Dead Scum Analysis) - Tar's posts about others are up first. I've stopped at the end of day 1, as his first post on day 2 was his claim, at which point we enter the Distancing Zone. After this I'll do analysis of others' posts towards Tar.

hasdgfas
1 - random vote
8 - "started pro-town but has become increasingly scummy", says he would lynch him at

deadline behind Elmo and SSK

PokerFace
3 - sees PF as town despite the wagon on him ("his early requests for comments from other

players looks town to me, and his explanation looks more like misguided town than scum")
4 - realises that PF did not actually ask questions early on, but still finds analysis pro-

town
7 - rates as town

Mizzy
7 - rates as town

Ether
2 - FoS for post 73 - "reads to me as a veiled attack on Erg0 (by claiming to find something

scummy using weak language and backtracking immediately thereafter)" - follows this with a

vote on me for a later post
7 - neutral read, thinks she has the same alignment as Glork

Incognito
7 - 3rd on scumdar

scotmany12
3 - explains IIoA and comments on roland in response to scot's questions

eldarad (MafiaSSK)
3 - explains his standard tells
7 - 2nd on scumdar

Erg0
2 - votes me for IIoA
3 - explains tell, sticks to vote
7 - 4th on scumdar

Elmo (rolandgarros)
3 - was under his radar due to inactivity, minor suspicion for IIoA
5 - "pressure" vote (looks wagonny)
6 - after re-read, sticks with vote on Elmo for lack of comment on who is scum/town
7 - 1st on scumdar, gives a case that boils down to Elmo failing to give opinions on other

players and his opinion on hasdgfas' claim (agree with the second part, not so much with the

first). "I mean, seriously, why doesn't this guy have about 5 to 7 votes on him right now?"
9 - "Now can we please get back to lynching Elmoscum, plox?"

Summary

Tar's behaviour at deadline is interesting, as my recollection is that we were effectively choosing between Elmo and hasdgfas for the lynch - he places hasdgfas third on his list of suspicion, allowing him to avoid pressure to switch off the Elmo wagon while still covering himself somewhat if hasdgfas is lynched and comes up scum. His hasty call-back to the Elmo wagon in 9 after calling hasdgfas scummy in 8 is also notable.

His early FoS on Ether for making a veiled attack on me is a little odd, given that he then votes me in the same post. The attempt to link her alignment to Glork's also rates a minor ping on my scumdar.

eldarad/SSK kind of goes from nowhere to second on his scumdar in post 7, though I suspect that he's mainly there to act as a buffer between hasdgfas and Elmo.

Others' posts about Tar are coming next.

[Mizzy]

Whether or not you believe me, you can trust that I did play my part yesterday to get Tar lynched, as I did believe he was scum at the end of the day very strongly. Just because you can't see it, doesn't mean nothing happened.

If I had thought that, at the end, Tar wouldn't have been lynched, I would have stepped up and voted him myself, but I didn't see the need to.

I also believe that SSK was probably noobscum who was lurking because he was unsure how to proceed in a way that wouldn't draw attention to him. Right now, I feel like eldarad is going after me because I look like an easy target, making the role in general look even scummier to me.

[Ether]

I am even more sure now that Eldarad is town. There is one situation in which my newest tell on him would cease to be true, but I don't find it at all likely. I'd rather not get into it right now. He and Mizzy really need to stop fighting.

PF, I just ran a brief number-meta on your average posts per day and page; you seem to be posting much less frequently here. I only used three games aside from this one, and I acknowledge that this isn't a large enough sampling to drive a case against you--still, is something wrong?

In no particular order: Incognito's town, Eldarad's town, Mizzy's town, Elmo's town, Scot's town. Ether's town. So that's nice.

[PokerFace]

PF, I just ran a brief number-meta on your average posts per day and page; you seem to be posting much less frequently here. I only used three games aside from this one, and I acknowledge that this isn't a large enough sampling to drive a case against you--still, is something wrong?

Before mid Aprilish I was usually only in 1 or 2 games at a time, but as of late I am currently in 4 games. A couple did end and start while this game was running but usually I am not in this many games at once. Aside from that, no nothing is really wrong. I'd sooner call all that different than wrong.

[Ether]

Erg0, how's it going there? Are you going to stop posting here entirely until you can do that analysis? Who's scum?

I am taken aback by the reaction to my stunningly insightful clearing of Eldarad.

[Incognito]

Heh. Normally it's Patrick who I feel I'm sharing the same brain with in Mafia games but it looks like this time, Ether, it's you. I agree with your town-list deduction with a slight pause on Mizzy. I'm still leaning town on her but it's more like town with a big, bold question mark.

[hasdgfas]

I am even more sure now that Eldarad is town. There is one situation in which my newest tell on him would cease to be true, but I don't find it at all likely. I'd rather not get into it right now. He and Mizzy really need to stop fighting.

Why do you not want to go into it if it, as you say, "clears him"? Isn't that something that you'd want to share with the town?

[Elmo]

hasdgfas: Do you believe Ether is a competent player?
Assuming yes: Do you believe there's a reasonable chance of her being pro-town? If not, why?
Assuming yes: She's said she'd rather not get into it now... why are you implying this is anti-town? Essentially the possibilities wherein it is good for her to share her viewpoint is:
1) if she is anti-town;
2) if she is pro-town and it is beneficial for her to do so. If she is town, she is obviously in the best position to decide if it's likely to be beneficial. So your remark would imply you think she is anti-town, right? Or that it's somehow scummy to obliquely mention something? I can't see any legit reason for that remark.

[hasdgfas]

Elmo: I think eldarad/SSK is scum, Ether apparently has something to make her think that he's definitely town, and due to the fact that I *think* she is pro-town right now, I want to know why, in case it influences my thoughts on him.

[Erg0]

Erg0, how's it going there? Are you going to stop posting here entirely until you can do that analysis? Who's scum?

The Dead Scum Analysis is my jumping-off point for the rest of the game, so I don't have much to add until that's done. I'm not far off finishing my notes, so it shouldn't be too much longer.

[Erg0]

Others on Tarhalindur (pre-claim edition)

This stuff is probably a more reliable source of information than the post-claim chatter, but I'll do a round-up of that stuff tomorrow to see if anything good pops up.

hasdgfas
231 - re Tar's "pressure" vote for Elmo: "I find this to be a useless and hypocritical post."
298 - responds to Tar's criticism of his SSK vote.

PokerFace
158 - (round-up post) On scot's vote for Tar: "His vote looks to be more based on a disagreement then the theory Tarhalidur is scum." Thinks Tar's vote on me fits his meta, but wants a specific example of scum committing the IIoA tell.
239 - disagrees with Tar's example of IIoA tell; "Tar has stopped going after Erg0 at the moment to put some pressure on Elmo which is a little off considering he is not doing too much either."
278 - Agrees with Tar's assessment of Elmo's 246 as scummy. "Tarhalindur do you have any comments on the other wagons that are out there?"
300 - "Tarhalindur - I am rather pleased with his recent postings. Like me he is more active as deadlines get closer. We do need a more aggressive player in this game. His analysis of Elmo/roland makes sence to me."

Mizzy
211 - (recap post) "Tar opens with a good point about Ether's posting, which in retrospect does look like some veiled attacking, though again, it's not enough for me to find her suspicious yet."; "I don't agree with Scot's interpretation of Tar, especially since it's kind of hidden in his post #105 and there's not even any Tar quote in there."

Ether
270 - (responding to Elmo's 246) "Contradicting Patrick, he struck me as more active there--a quick comparison of his postcounts in the first 22 days of each game has 7 vs 18, which is actually a lower ratio than I'd expected. In general, he feels colder here, although I accept that his newfangled standardized tells would explain some of that." Agrees with Incog's list in 264, but can't decide on the order.

Incognito
230 - "It's a bit unsettling how I still have absolutely no read on Tarhalindur, Elmo, and PokerFace and the deadline is like... right there."
264 - (after voting Glork) "Other lynches I would support: Mizzy, Tarhalindur, and Elmo all for being uncharacteristically useless."
307 - response to Tar's case on him, defends Glork vote, points out inconsistencies in Tar liking Patrick's 280 (a really good point, in hindsight).
323 - "Confirm Vote: Glork; Huge FoS: Tarhalindur; Those two definitely stand as my scummiest right now with Elmo right next to Tarhalindur as well. Tarhalindur's reads look so fucking contrived it's ridiculous." (slight incosistency, as Elmo is third on Incog's list at this point - explained in 327)
342 - "I agree with Tarhalindur being scum for reasons that I've cited previously.", votes Tar (2nd after Glork)

scotmany12
105 - "I guess right now I have the biggest problem with Tarhalinder." Attack on Tar's reasoning for voting me, wants his opinion on roland. Votes Tar, but weakens it a little with: "While this is not especially incriminating by itself, it is the best lead I have at the moment."
124 - has looked up IIoA, but still disagrees with Tar's vote.
305 - response to Tar calling him "under the radar".
333 - (start of day 2) "Right now I am most suspicious of Tar and Hasgdfas"
346 - votes Tar (3rd after Glork, Incog) for bad attacks on Elmo, hasdgfas, Incog, me

eldarad (MafiaSSK)
78 - questions Tar's IIoA vote on me

Elmo (rolandgarros)
246 - "I don't agree with Tarhalindur's comment on Erg0, 68 seemed to take stances on people in a reasonable manner, although I see what he's getting at with Ether."; "I kinda agree with scotmany wrt Tar, hm."; "Tar's play seems very by-the-numbers, I'm not sure if that's in character."; "Patrick/Ether: What does Tar feel like relative to Farscape? I don't think I've seen them in a game before."
274 - "Tarhalindur: To what extent do you rely on your Standard Tells vs. thinking on-the-fly? How frequently do you get significant mileage out of them as town? How do you (ab)use them when scum?" (kind of a repeat of a question I asked earlier)
348 - "Tarhalindur: To reiterate: To what extent do you rely on your Standard Tells vs. thinking on-the-fly? How frequently do you get significant mileage out of them as town? How do you (ab)use them when scum? You didn't answer this before, opting to attack me instead; why? Do you believe the IIoA tell applied to Patrick, given Mizzy's stance towards him yesterday?", votes Tar (4th after Glork, Incog, scot) with a decent case.

Conclusions

scot was pretty much the leader in the Tarhate department on day 1 - he had him down as a suspect long before anyone else. As such, his vote on the day 2 wagon is credible despite being a little later than it might have been.

Mizzy and PokerFace were about the only people who had anything positive to say about Tar pre-claim. Mizzy's post 211 came before Tar got much attention, and I disagree with her points. Her comment on scot's case against Tar actually looks like a mild version of what Tar would call the "chainsaw defence", which is interesting. PokerFace does something similar in 158, and gives an overall positive assessment of Tar's "aggressive" play later on. I'll be interested to see how these two look in the post-claim recap.

I was just about to tick Incog off as obvtown for post 307 (which is a really good observation that I totally missed), but he messes it up a little by doing almost the same thing as Tar, placing Elmo third on his scum list after calling Tar's case against him (Elmo) "contrived".

Elmo seems to have some suspicions of Tar from the point where he replaces in, and the case he gives when voting him on day 2 is solid. The WIFOM part of my brain is whispering that he's trying too hard, but I can see why he'd want to give some good reasoning when putting someone within claim range so early on day 2.

hasdgfas, Ether and SSK are almost blank slates. In SSK's case this is probably due to lack of content overall, but Ether and hasdgfas expressed negative sentiments on Tar without ever really following up on them. Mild pings on the scumdar for this.

Analysis will be completed in my next post.

[eldarad]

I am taken aback by the reaction to my stunningly insightful clearing of Eldarad.

I'm much more bothered by your clearing of Mizzy. But then, you aren't the only person who has said something very similar.
Are you happy with Mizzy's explanation for her vote on me rather than the competing claims Yesterday? How so?

[PokerFace]

I am even more sure now that Eldarad is town. There is one situation in which my newest tell on him would cease to be true, but I don't find it at all likely. I'd rather not get into it right now. He and Mizzy really need to stop fighting.

I think I know what you are refering to, but I am not so certain it clears ether of them completly. Some wifom maybe involved thar.

(If you don't get what I mean then we must not be thinking the same thing)

[Ether]

Okay, I guess I was sort of asking for that with my challenge, but I predictably don't like where this is going.

I'm just going to wait for Erg0 to finish failing to clear people.

Normally it's Patrick who I feel I'm sharing the same brain with in Mafia games but it looks like this time, Ether, it's you.

I see what you did there.

[Mizzy]

This under-the-table talk of tells is kind of getting to me. Ether, if you are comfortable with it, can you explain what tell you found that clears Eld? I'd be more than happy to think of him as being less scummy if I had a reason I could see.

[Erg0]

Okay, I guess I was sort of asking for that with my challenge, but I predictably don't like where this is going.

Which post are you referring to here?

I'm just going to wait for Erg0 to finish failing to clear people.

Clearing people isn't really the point of this analysis - occasionally someone looks good enough to be cleared, but the primary goal is finding scum through their behaviour towards their late buddy.

Also, the post-claim stuff is thick as molasses, so that's going to take me another day to work through.

[eldarad]

I'm quite happy for Ether to wait a bit before she starts explaining. I don't know exactly what she thinks she's seen (or else I wouldn't do it...) and I'm not that bothered if she reveals it.

But given that I'm not under suspicion - apart from a dodgy vote from Hascow - there's really no point going out of the way to clear me based on meta.

Mizzy, if you don't like this talk, fine. What do you want to talk about?

[Mizzy]

Well, I do want to know what Ether says clears you, Eld. I would love to talk about that. I don't mind being proved wrong...I would rather see the light if there is light to see and think you are less scummy than continue suspecting you if I am incorrect.

[Incognito]

I'm pretty sure Ether's "challenge" was in reference to the fact that she pretty much made a post clearing a bunch of people as town in her eyes (including eldarad who is kinda like the competing wagon for today) but after it kinda sat there for two days nobody who might have opposed it (*ahem* hasdgfas *ahem* and *ahem* PokerFace *ahem*) bothered to comment. The obvious line of questioning from the nay-sayers would have been "Ether, what convinces you that the person I'm

voting

for (or am suspicious of) is town?". Interestingly, this questioning only came from hasdgfas and others after Ether offered the challenge. So yeah, I still feel absolutely magnificent about my hasdgfas vote.

[eldarad]

I strongly dislike Mizzy's reaction, but I don't really want to push it any further at the moment.
Sigh.

unvote

I'd be happyish with a Hascow lynch and/or a PokerFace lynch - particuarly after Erg0's analysis which showed quite a strong PF-Tar link - but I worry that this just seems too easy...

I'm overdue an analysis post - I'll aim to post one this weekend.

[Ether]

Still cool with a Cowlynch.

Which post are you referring to here?

That's where I complained about the thread dying and drew attention to my town list in 655.

Clearing people isn't really the point of this analysis - occasionally someone looks good enough to be cleared, but the primary goal is finding scum through their behaviour towards their late buddy.

Yes, I figured that. Your open mind still makes me twitch.

[Mizzy]

I'm pretty sure Ether's "challenge" was in reference to the fact that she pretty much made a post clearing a bunch of people as town in her eyes (including eldarad who is kinda like the competing wagon for today) but after it kinda sat there for two days nobody who might have opposed it (*ahem* hasdgfas *ahem* and *ahem* PokerFace *ahem*) bothered to comment. The obvious line of questioning from the nay-sayers would have been "Ether, what convinces you that the person I'm

voting

for (or am suspicious of) is town?". Interestingly, this questioning only came from hasdgfas and others after Ether offered the challenge. So yeah, I still feel absolutely magnificent about my hasdgfas vote.

Okay, I think I get it. I will be honest; I have no idea how Ether plays the way she does...I seriously cannot follow her line of reasoning without it being written out. I think like a programmer, not like an Ether

You are saying that if they had questioned it earlier as opposed to later, it wouldn't have been a scumtell, but because they questioned it after she "challenged" that it IS a scumtell? I can see that. But I was hoping for something more substantial that shows Eld as town...or was there something else I missed?

[Incognito]

You are saying that if they had questioned it earlier as opposed to later, it wouldn't have been a scumtell, but because they questioned it after she "challenged" that it IS a scumtell?

Yes, this is true. If hasdgfas truly felt that eldarad was scum and therefore vote-worthy, he should have immediately come into the thread and questioned Ether as to why she felt he was cleared as town. Waiting until only

after

Ether offered her challenge seems fairly scummy to me. hasdgfas even waited until after I questioned him about eldarad/MafiaSSK just to lay out his case and vote for him. In all fairness though, this could have been partially related to timing rather than having an association with my questioning of him, but I'm sure you get the point.

But I was hoping for something more substantial that shows Eld as town...or was there something else I missed?

I'm not sure of Ether's method of arriving at this conclusion either, but I know my own. I suppose you'll have to ask Ether herself.

[hasdgfas]

You are saying that if they had questioned it earlier as opposed to later, it wouldn't have been a scumtell, but because they questioned it after she "challenged" that it IS a scumtell?

Yes, this is true. If hasdgfas truly felt that eldarad was scum and therefore vote-worthy, he should have immediately come into the thread and questioned Ether as to why she felt he was cleared as town. Waiting until only

after

Ether offered her challenge seems fairly scummy to me. hasdgfas even waited until after I questioned him about eldarad/MafiaSSK just to lay out his case and vote for him. In all fairness though, this could have been partially related to timing rather than having an association with my questioning of him, but I'm sure you get the point.

If you could see it as timing in one case, why not in the other?
In addition, Ether's two posts had very different tones. One said she was more sure eldarad was town, and I understand that people feel differently about other players. However, her second post mentioned her 'clearing' of eldarad. That, when I do feel like someone is scum, requires a comment much more than simply thinking someone town.