SMITE Role Madness Mafia (OVER AT LAST!)

[Magua]

Cephrir sowing doubt on "clearing because of role" in the case of Skybird, TiphaineDeath also strengthens Skybird-town and ZeL1nK-town.

[FourTrouble]

Btw I was gonna retract the shot but dram already picked it up. It wasn't inefficient though because nobody wanted to lynch ozgin and I couldn't get that to happen. So...

[Magua]

At the point wher ehe claimed Chaos a lynch was a total possibility.

(I thought he was claiming third party, hence the wincon push)

[Imperium]

I'm also of the mind it would be highly advantageous to lynch Ank tomorrow and use FT pick power as a second town controlled kill.

[Magua]

/agree

[FourTrouble]

At the point wher ehe claimed Chaos a lynch was a total possibility.

Yes, when I saw that I went to delete the shot but it was too late.

[FourTrouble]

Ozgin flipping town does give more town credit to Ooba.

[Imperium]

I can't see two scum in the cephrir neighborhood defending themselves to the extent that they defended one another. I am very glad you shot Cephrir over ooba.

[FourTrouble]

Thank F-16. Rereading him is why I did it - I agreed that Ceph's reaction to the loverize was scummy.

[ZeL1nK]

I don't think we should lynch zelink because he was blocked on D2 trying to target TD and I don't really think that's a scum move, but maybe I'm just crazy.

I don't really like using pieces of information to confirm myself, but even if you didn't think I am town for other reasons, this alone should be almost-conclusive evidence.

Also, do not think the likelihood of this being a gambit is very high at all (too well-acted in too many respects), so FourTrouble is also practically confirmed in my eyes.

I think Skybird is also significantly less likely to be scum based on recent interactions with Cephrir, too.

[Magua]

Town (S->W): Metal Sonic -> FourTrouble --------------> ZeL1nK -----------> Skybird --> Imperium --> vezokpiraka --------> Espeonage -> Heartless ---> ZZZX

Scum (S->W): mastin2 --> Ankamius ----> TSO --> Andrius ------> ooba --> farside --> TheWayItEnds --> aceofspades --> xombie

---

Ozgin flipping town does give more town credit to Ooba.

Not following this logic.

[Magua]

(Really, ANkamius shouldn't be so high on my scum list, but a) I want him to be scum and b) I'm happy to give FourTrouble another shot, so.)

[FourTrouble]

Because Ooba wasn't consistent with his beast read re: the gladiate. Ozgin being town suggests he was genuinely reevaluting, because there's not much scum motive for changing reads like that.

[Magua]

If we assume you-town and ZeL1nK-town as I want to do, then the gladiate was amongst three towns. Scum wouldn't need to push any of them strongly, and, I would wager, were spread out over them at different points so that whoever was lynched and flipped town could be followed up with "Told you we should've lynched <other guy>"

[FourTrouble]

Btw Ceph being scum means vezok's doc isn't why night-kill failed. So someone else out there is confirmed town on that basis, and it lends more credence to TD' roleblock.

[Magua]

Cephrir was not saved from a kill N1. Therefore, mastin is probably roleblocked scum.
mastin-scum => ZeL1nK-town.

Glad you agree.

[Imperium]

Btw Ceph being scum means vezok's doc isn't why night-kill failed. So someone else out there is confirmed town on that basis, and it lends more credence to TD' roleblock.

I do believe that Mastin has a good chance of being scum, but I don't believe this is the reason for the missing nightkill.

Also, I think I'm finally learning how to read Cephrir!!!

[ZeL1nK]

Also, I'm slightly more confident that theaceofspades is town than I was previously. Cephrir was advocating him as an alternative vig shot to ooba after FourTrouble cancelled the first one. Might have been a gambit, probably wasn't.

[ZeL1nK]

vezopikari probably isn't scum with Cephrir, either.

[Magua]

I am slightly paranoid about vezokpiraka because if mastin is scum and TD starts D2 with "I roleblocked mastin", you need a competing theory to keep mastin from being lynched.

However, I feel that vezok-scum in that case would claim to have protected a town rather than a buddy, but that's less sure.

[Ankamius]

Ok I have a reason to start caring about the game again.

I'll look back on my reads and see if something jumps out at me with these flips.

[Imperium]

vezok claimed the cephrir heal before TD claimed the role block on mastin.

[Magua]

o rly

*checks*

You're right (2895 vs 3084).

Hmmmm, does imply vezok-town.

[theaceofspades]

ozgin was town. This is what validation feels like

[ZeL1nK]

There are a number of other reasons vezopikari's claim makes him likely town, but yes, that happening at the start of the D2 before anyone else had claimed responsibility for the lack of kill makes it more likely he's town.

It probably isn't important to delve into right now, anyway.