Newbie 1030 - Game Over

For Newbie Games, which have a set format and experienced moderators. Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #625 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:02 am

Post by Hoppster »

Newbie2010 #58 wrote:Hoppster + Song:

I'm pretty sure Hoppster is the last scum, actually.

<snip>


Notice Idle's #44 skipping Hopp's questions. And fencesitting on Hopp in #42 (same with Nacho). Post 25 reply to Hoppster's post is only reply / interaction I see.

<snip>


VOTE: Hoppster

Yes, I still have doubts about this. But really, interactions with Idle have shown me quite clearly that Hoppster is more likely to be scum.
Newbie2010 #63 wrote:Impressive? Is it because you got away with a -46.55 based on good D-1 play but started looking scummy in D-2 or D-3, while Song got a big + score in D-1? You do realize that opinions change, and a D-1 score won’t necessarily be anything close to a D-2/3 score. In fact, D-2/3 behavior is more telling because the extra information (the two flips) would cause people to make different cases based on what they think individually.
Newbie2010 #84 wrote:I used to have a scum-read on you at the start of D-3. Now I have a town read on you. So I wasn't willing to hammer Song at that point in time, if I find the time to finish my case on Song I would probably hammer her if there were stlil two votes on her.
Newbie2010 #93 wrote:My suspect list:

Song
Hoppster
Nacho
Purple Orange
Newbie2010 #105 wrote:Hoppster:

Good explanations, I'm "more" inclined to vote Purple Orange right now, to be honest. Like I said, I don't like my case on either you or Purple Orange, but Purple Orange is scummier when it comes to interactions. Your only real scummy point was the lynch-plan / cop-speculation. The contradiction of Purple Orange saying we should stop speculating Nacho-cop then speculating herself outweighs this by far.

FoS: Purple Orange
Benmage: First, for the sake of irony. I'm going to illustrate how completely idiotic and hypocritical scumhunter is.
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Post Post #626 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2011 7:32 am

Post by Newbie2010 »

Hoppster: OK, so if some hypothetical scum were to tunnel on one or two people you'd trust them? Because it sure seems like what you are getting at in your logic.
#105 says that my only scummy thing was my whole charade with the auto-lynch Nacho and the cop speculation. However, that came in D3, and #84 states that you had a scum-read on me at the start of D3 (ie. before it occured). Whilst the cop speculation did come early in D3, you didn't seem to be suspicious of PO at all D3 (who as we've discovered is also guilty of cop speculation). #63 implies that I had been acting scummy D2 as well.
#105: I had a case in #48 (where I mathematical failed with the typo with 2 scummy posts) but it wasn't that good. The later in the game you go, the better the cases get. I didn't like your D-2 play, but then again I didn't like either my own or really anyone else's. The quickhammer by Song was understandable, but deprived many of us of the time to build cases.
scum-read on me at the start of D3 (ie. before it occured).
This was the quote in my #48.
Whilst the cop speculation did come early in D3, you didn't seem to be suspicious of PO at all D3 (who as we've discovered is also guilty of cop speculation). #63 implies that I had been acting scummy D2 as well.
I wasn't really suspicious of PO, mainly because of me getting impatient waiting for Nacho to post his case on Song, and in general PO contributed quite a lot in terms of scum-hunting.
Regarding #58: You say that you were pretty sure I was the last scum, however, if my only scummy points were the auto-lynch campaign and the cop speculation, then that's not really that much to use as a basis for suspicion. This post also came early D3, before my auto-lynch Nacho idea.
Yes. I said I was pretty sure you were the last scum because of my case on #48. My mood about you shifted from scum to townish during D-3, and I felt you responded well to the quote-wall of back-and-forth replies.

Also, why were you confident enough to put PO bottom of your suspect list in #93 (and me second) but now you're more inclined towards PO-scum than Hoppster-scum?
PO was less scummy than you at that time because of your D-2 play and the lack of a similar issue with PO (a.k.a. me not reading PO closely enough to discover such issues) PO was less scummy than Nacho because Nacho lurked more. You were more scummy than Nacho up until Nacho put Song at L-1. Nacho putting Song at L-1 would've given him big scum-points, because he lurked through D-3 and refused to show his hand, even though he was a good player and the whole town was counting on him to make a case. Like I said, my cases on PO and you are still about equal. PO's interaction with Idle > Your lack of interaction with Idle, so that's the thing that tipped the balance. Plus, your doctor protections make sense, especially that soft-claim at the start of D-2. The reason I'm not voting for PO right now is because my case on her is still weak, just that my town-case on her is weaker than that of my town-case on you. And you might have just been a clever scum thinking out the doc fakeclaim D-2.
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Post Post #627 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2011 10:04 am

Post by Hoppster »

Newbie2010 wrote:Hoppster: OK, so if some hypothetical scum were to tunnel on one or two people you'd trust them? Because it sure seems like what you are getting at in your logic.
That was what I was getting at with my auto-lynch Nacho thing. We trust him and if it turns out Song is town, Nacho is (possibly tunnelling) scum and we lynch him. Obviously with hindsight I now know my logic was incorrect, but that was my logic at the time.
Benmage: First, for the sake of irony. I'm going to illustrate how completely idiotic and hypocritical scumhunter is.
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Post Post #628 (ISO) » Sun Jan 16, 2011 4:55 am

Post by Purple Orange »

Newbie2010 wrote:
No, that was not my case on you in D-2 -- I'm not entirely sure where you're getting this, and it doesn't even make sense. Are you pulling it from the series of questions I said I asked?
What else did you comment on about my D-1 play other than that so-called "anti-town" move about the self-hammer?
No town motivation for an action (that I could see), and quite a lot of scum motivation for an action ---> the person doing the action is likely scum.
This is also known as anti-town. Pushing a lynch for someone that is anti-town is also known as a policy lynch.
I commented that I found a lot of it pro-town in tone? :/ I openly admitted I hadn't had a scum read on you until the deadline actions. But how you've summarized what I was saying about you over the deadline actions is not what I was saying about you.

Maybe we just have a difference in vocabulary here. I never pushed a lynch on you because I said your actions were "anti-town" -- I pushed a lynch because I thought they were scummy, and I do try to make a distinction between those things.

Anti-town actions aren't necessarily scummy, but they CAN be. (And most scummy actions are anti-town by definition). Lurking can be anti-town, but if one's doing it to stay out of the limelight as a powerrole, it's not necessarily scummy. Clamming up like Hanzo did early in the thread, then Nacho later, can be anti-town, but there can also be town reasons for clamming up. Doing crazy stuff like Hanzo was doing can be anti-town, but he could honestly think that he was doing it for reasons that were good for the town.

I'm rather confused here, and I seriously don't know what you're expecting or looking for in a case. I went after you because I thought your actions came from scum motivation, not town motivation. I don't know how many more ways I can say this.
wanted you voted for because I thought that you forcing a claim and a self-hammer came from scum motivation, not town motivation.
Ok, if you really think what I did had scum motivation, then you'd call me anti-town. So your lynch on me would be a policy lynch. It stopped being a policy lynch the moment Song wrote the quote wall about the interactions of Idle and I.
I would have called it scummy, and you scum. One can do anti-town things without being scum. Again, maybe it's just a disagreement in vocabulary here, but I still don't understand why you keep trying to say what I did was a policy lynch.
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Post Post #629 (ISO) » Sun Jan 16, 2011 5:13 am

Post by Purple Orange »

In addition to that, there's the the fact you bring up the cop matter.
Why is this scummy, and/or even anti-town? A cop claiming before LYLO even with a pair of innocents or even ONE innocent would be better than a cop claim at LYLO.
But we had no idea at the time that there even WAS a cop, and you were very specific in singling out Nacho. If he was breadcrumbing cop, he obviously had decided not to say anything about it then. If all you wanted to say was "if a cop has two innocent reads, or even just one, he should claim"-- then say it more vaguely like that, and avoid drawing attention to the person that you think might be the cop. If you wanted Nacho to give an actual reason for his reads, then simply yell at him to give his reasons. Obviously Hopp and my latching onto the matter forced it far more into the limelight -- but once you brought up the possibility of a specific player being the cop, the cat was out of the bag, so to speak, and any anonymity and choice in the matter he might have preserved was gone.
In addition to that, is the fact that you ask us all for our reads on everyone right at the end of Day 3. I'm inclined to drop this point, as I see valid town motivation for doing this.
Nacho lurked through D-3 with only one good post, and D-3 was around 17 days. I wanted that case out of him before D-4 if Song flips town. Also, if you think it is bad for me to give out our reads, WHY did you give out your own reads in reply to my question? Why didn't you explain to me why it is bad for you to give out your reads?
I stated in that very post itself that I gave my reads because I thought it was already apparent where I stood. (And as you note later, I fuzzed the Hoppster/Nacho line).

I also wasn't 100% certain it was bad to give reads -- I was waiting on Nacho's response before I made a final call on that. Though I think my "it's already pretty evident from my posting" sentence indicates where my doubts lay, and that the following paragraph made it clear I thought there might seriously be a disadvantage to answering your questions. I even made sure to put in an "if there's no drawback" in my counter-question to you.

I was also quite wary of giving you advice, because I thought you were the most likely scum candidate if Song flipped town. For the previous reasons mentioned, but very much compounded by the fact you had asked us all for our reads, but hadn't volunteered your own. I didn't see you acting in good faith there at all. (This is also one of the reasons I went after muh early in the thread -- asking a set of questions of other people, but not answering them himself).
Newbie2010 wrote:If you got my answers, and Idle flipped town, what would you think of me? Would you immediately vote for me in the D-3 LYLO or would you instead look at other people more?
If Idle flipped town, my case on you would actually be weaker, because there wouldn't be the added "possibly save a buddy" reason for having done what you did.
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Post Post #630 (ISO) » Mon Jan 17, 2011 3:25 pm

Post by Nocmen »

Vote Count

Not Voting - 3(Purple Orange, Hoppster, Newbie2010)

Deadline: Weds, Jan 26
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Post Post #631 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 6:08 am

Post by Hoppster »

Purple Orange wrote:But we had no idea at the time that there even WAS a cop, and you were very specific in singling out Nacho. If he was breadcrumbing cop, he obviously had decided not to say anything about it then. If all you wanted to say was "if a cop has two innocent reads, or even just one, he should claim"-- then say it more vaguely like that, and avoid drawing attention to the person that you think might be the cop. If you wanted Nacho to give an actual reason for his reads, then simply yell at him to give his reasons. Obviously Hopp and my latching onto the matter forced it far more into the limelight -- but once you brought up the possibility of a specific player being the cop, the cat was out of the bag, so to speak, and any anonymity and choice in the matter he might have preserved was gone.
While if Newbie is town I do understand the angle he is coming from, looking at it with Nacho's town reads thrown anything but certain (as it is now) I am slightly suspicious that PO and myself both failed to jump to the conclusion that Nacho could be cop with his unexplained reads, despite the fact we would be coming from a similar viewpoint as Newbie if he were town. However, the fact that only he decided that it showed up Nacho as a cop candidate makes me wonder. It did seem a bit to me as a way of him to seem that he was adding something to town (advising cop to claim) and also re-iterating his town-ness (Hey guys, I'm town, so I think his town read on me might be cop investigation).

While the circumstances are different for PO (obviously couldn't have been a cop investigation D1) I certainly didn't feel that the TRotD was a cop investigation. I just kinda took it as a compliment really.

Of course, it could be that Newbie's just more observant/thoughtful town in which case the other town (it's me :wink: ) and scum were just a bit less creative with their thought process or whatnot.
Benmage: First, for the sake of irony. I'm going to illustrate how completely idiotic and hypocritical scumhunter is.
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Post Post #632 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 7:51 am

Post by Purple Orange »

@ Hopp: Still trying to understand the "lynch Nacho if Song is town" deal. Was it based in the fact that you thought the ONLY options were Nacho was 100% accurate town, or he was scum?
Hopp ISO 25 wrote:Sorry Song. Although you haven't really seemed that scummy to me recently (Newbie's seemed more scummy imo), I'm going to trust in Nacho's town reads.
Hopp ISO 26 wrote:Anyway, I didn't actually realise you would be at L-1 (forgot that Nacho had voted you), but even if I had known, I still would have voted you, because I firmly believe it's the best strategy for town. Either that, or a Nacho lynch today followed by you being lynched the next day. But I think you're more likely to be scum, which is why I voted you. I did think that Newbie was scummier than you which was why I was sort of sorry, but with Nacho having a town read on him (as well as everybody else apart from you), it just makes more sense strategically to lynch you than it does Newbie.
It looks like your reasoning for voting for Song was ostensibly pragmatic -- you didn't think she was the scummiest, but (somehow?) thought it would best narrow down town options to lynch her? In neither scenario would Newbie (the person you said you personally thought was the scummiest) have a chance of getting lynched, however. Either Song would be scum, and we'd be done, or Song would be town, and we'd lynch Nacho. So what made you eliminate Newbie as a lynch option at that point?

Also, you never answered this question of Newbie's, which gets at the same thing:
Newbie wrote:Strategically? Why don’t you convince Nacho that I am scum?
I argued you down from the "lynch Nacho is Song is town" thing, I think removing the pragmatic reasoning you were making for the lynch, and you unvote Song:
Hopp ISO 26 wrote:As PO's just shown me, we haven't quite eliminated the impossible (as I thought we had). After that dressing-down I'm just going to UNVOTE: and quietly sit in the corner. :oops: Paticularly as I still believe there's a possibility of Newbie being scum now.
But by the end of the day, you have Song as your top lynch pick again. Had you come to see her as more scummy than Newbie by that point? Or were you still lynching her for pragmatic reasons? Both/and?
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Post Post #633 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 8:03 am

Post by Purple Orange »

Hopp ISO 33 wrote:Also, about me being investigated N1... I wouldn't have done that if I were cop (and obviously not playing as myself). The game which I had been reading prior to replacing into this game saw the guy who replaced in late D1 get lynched N1, which I thought I probably would have done as well if I were mafia (both in this and that game).
Hopp ISO 37 wrote:I was actually talking about Night Killing myself - I'd forgotten LC had replaced in after me. So yeah, I would've NK'd LC if I were scum.

So you thought the mafia likely would kill LC (the replacement), but you protected Nacho?
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Post Post #634 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 9:44 am

Post by Purple Orange »

@Newbie:
Purple Orange wrote:
Newbie2010 wrote:To ISO #31 (her last analysis post):
You think that I was making a last-ditch move to save Idle D-1 in your most likely "a)" Tell me the scum intention of doing that and why I'm scum because of it. (Now that we've confirmed Idle is scum, we don't have to waste time discussing Idle-town cases)
Scum intention? Save a partner and/or eke out another role claim while you were at it. Scummy because I seriously saw no other reason to do what you did there. I'm still not sure whether to buy your explanation as rationalization, or as an honest belief that this was the right thing to do in that situation. Maybe I've just got a mental block here - Nacho seems to think you were sincere, and my strongest town read right now is on him.
^ For clarification, this is about where I still am when it comes to your Day 1 actions. I can see a possible town explanation for it now (based on answers you gave to the questions D2), which means I can't call it a slam-dunk argument like I was seeing it as before then. But pretty much any action can have scum or town motivation...deciding which is most probable is the tricky part. It's null at best to me, scummy at worst, and I have a hard time just dismissing it.
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Post Post #635 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 10:14 am

Post by Hoppster »

Purple Orange wrote:It looks like your reasoning for voting for Song was ostensibly pragmatic -- you didn't think she was the scummiest, but (somehow?) thought it would best narrow down town options to lynch her? In neither scenario would Newbie (the person you said you personally thought was the scummiest) have a chance of getting lynched, however. Either Song would be scum, and we'd be done, or Song would be town, and we'd lynch Nacho. So what made you eliminate Newbie as a lynch option at that point?

Also, you never answered this question of Newbie's, which gets at the same thing:
Newbie wrote:Strategically? Why don’t you convince Nacho that I am scum?
Well, I'll admit that I'm struggling to justify my logic, as it's quite clear to me that it's faulty. However, my logic at the time was:

1. Nacho has confidently ruled out everybody but Song for scum.
2. Nacho is the IC, and is the most experienced (and thus probably the best in terms of getting reads).
3. If Nacho is town, he has almost certainly identified the last scum (see 2).
Yeah... this is the dodgy bit I think.

4. If Nacho is scum, then he has probably identified the scummiest townperson.
5. Should Nacho be town, we lynch Song. Town wins!
6. Should Nacho be scum, we lynch Song. Song flips town, and then we realise Nacho is scum. We lynch Nacho. Town wins!

Yeah, that's my heavily flawed logic summed up. I discounted Newbie because he didn't fit into the logic. I assumed that when it came to my read vs Nacho's read, Nacho's would be correct. So in essence, the answer to your question is "yes". I didn't think he'd be 100% accurate, but pretty damn near enough so that he's basically 100% accurate.

I didn't want to convince Nacho that Newbie was scum because I didn't really believe it myself. The only person I have been near 100% convinced of being scum at any point was Idle Thoughts (however I was definitely quite sure of Song near the end of D3).

Towards the end of the day, Song was much more scummy than Newbie in my opinion. Paticularly with the whole thing where she concluded there was likely to be scum on her wagon. Having said that, the main reason I found that scummy was because it was so incorrect, and of course I am just as guilty with my auto-lynch campaign. I wouldn't really have a problem if you decide to lynch me because I'm finding it difficult to decide between you and Newbie and my cases suck (having reviewed my own case on Newbie I have no substance and just a general 'feeling') and I'm probably very little use. I can't even defend myself adequately. Worst comes to worse I'm just going to flip a coin and blindly vote for one of the two and hope. Don't get me wrong, I'll be disappointed (and a little bit guilty) but I just really can't find anything substantial on either of you. I know as I type this that I probably look scummy (and I suspect I'll be blamed post-game if we lose) but I'm hoping this will absolve some of the blame. Really, the only thing I can think of doing right now is the said coin flip.
Benmage: First, for the sake of irony. I'm going to illustrate how completely idiotic and hypocritical scumhunter is.
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Post Post #636 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 10:15 am

Post by Hoppster »

However. I'm not giving up just yet, so I'm having one last stab. It's not paticularly game-breaking, but just a little observation really. In terms of post-D1 play, PO and Newbie took two decidedly different routes over the muh self-hammer: Newbie tried to justify his decision and just really stuck to his guns I suppose, but PO blamed the pressure and whatnot for a stupid mistake. Okay, so now for me it seems likely that one of the two of you were aiming to save your scumbuddy (as I see no other motivation). For scum, I think it is much riskier sticking to and justifying your decision to vote muh than it is to blame the time constraints and risk of No Lynch. I also find it interesting that in PO's ISO #31, the scenario she sees as most likely is the one where the last scum tries to save their buddy Idle. Perhaps it's just an immensely good analysis, but I wouldn't have thought that most likely at all (as it would have been more discrete for scum just to let Idle be lynched imo), however, PO, rated that as her most likely scenario (and it turns out to be correct). From PO's perspective, I'm doubtful that I would have read Newbie as scum helping Idle. His mindset seems to be of town who also assumes PO is town.

It's also a small thing, but I wonder if it's just a coincedence that Idle's "attack" is ripped off PO (#393 pg16). We never conclusively decided that it was, but if it wasn't intentionally ripped off, then it's feasible that it could have been subconciously absorbed and regurgitated by Idle. I'm not sure how scum would think, but I'm fairly sure that if you were scum, the posts you would pay more attention to would be those of your partner (paticularly if you're first-time scum looking for guidance).

I'm discounting my points on Newbie from above because I think it's quite insignificant tbh, and also as I posted it I realised that his circumstances would be different to PO's, and slightly different from mine, so you can't really draw a conclusion from it imo.

@ Newbie: Unless you feel compelled to or think it would help, don't bother addressing my point above (#631). I've dropped it.


FoS: Purple Orange

Purple Orange wrote:
Hopp ISO 33 wrote:Also, about me being investigated N1... I wouldn't have done that if I were cop (and obviously not playing as myself). The game which I had been reading prior to replacing into this game saw the guy who replaced in late D1 get lynched N1, which I thought I probably would have done as well if I were mafia (both in this and that game).
Hopp ISO 37 wrote:I was actually talking about Night Killing myself - I'd forgotten LC had replaced in after me. So yeah, I would've NK'd LC if I were scum.

So you thought the mafia likely would kill LC (the replacement), but you protected Nacho?
No. Pre-ISO 37, I would have killed myself, because I had forgotten that LC replaced in after myself. Post-ISO 37, I would have killed LC. N1 (which is pre-ISO 33) I had a feeling I was going to be killed (and would have killed myself N1 had I been somebody else who was scum). However, post-#37, I have remembered that LC has replaced in after me, and thus I would have killed LC N1 had I been the same person from the first hypothetical scenario but also with the added knowledge/recollection of LC replacing in after me.
Benmage: First, for the sake of irony. I'm going to illustrate how completely idiotic and hypocritical scumhunter is.
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Post Post #637 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 12:19 pm

Post by Purple Orange »

Sort of glad you're at least committing to an FoS, even if it's on me. :/
Hoppster wrote:However. I'm not giving up just yet, so I'm having one last stab. It's not paticularly game-breaking, but just a little observation really. In terms of post-D1 play, PO and Newbie took two decidedly different routes over the muh self-hammer: Newbie tried to justify his decision and just really stuck to his guns I suppose, but PO blamed the pressure and whatnot for a stupid mistake. Okay, so now for me it seems likely that one of the two of you were aiming to save your scumbuddy (as I see no other motivation). For scum, I think it is much riskier sticking to and justifying your decision to vote muh than it is to blame the time constraints and risk of No Lynch.
Newbie had to say what he did and defend what he did to be consistent, because he was actively pushing for the muh self-hammer at deadline. (While I was going "what the HECK?? What's going on??") His was a quite methodical push for a self-hammer...trying to blame it on time constraints or pressure or whatnot would be stupid for a scum version of him. If he's town - yes, he's being honest and consistent, and saying what he really was thinking. And if he's scum, he's presenting a consistent rationalization and defense of his actions. Because blaming his actions on time constraints and pressure would be contradictory and suicidal -- based on his deadline posts it's obvious he WAS thinking through what he was doing then.

In similar fashion, if I'm town, I'm being open and honest that I was caught off guard, and made a poor decision, and did not understand why Newbie was doing what he did. If I'm scum...I'm saying I was caught off guard and made a poor decision, because trying to defend my decision to stay on muh would look self-contradictory with my posting at and during deadline.

Also a minor note: if you think that the the other player was town, though, you have to believe that they were NOT trying to save their scumbuddy. So you have to think that one of us had town motivation for what we did. You can't say that both of us could have had "no other motivation." (Theoretically, then BOTH of us could be town and doing what we did).

(And I think both of us would have been wiser, as scum, to have done nothing at deadline, and ridden the credit of an Idle lynch).
Hoppster wrote:I also find it interesting that in PO's ISO #31, the scenario she sees as most likely is the one where the last scum tries to save their buddy Idle. Perhaps it's just an immensely good analysis, but I wouldn't have thought that most likely at all (as it would have been more discrete for scum just to let Idle be lynched imo), however, PO, rated that as her most likely scenario (and it turns out to be correct). From PO's perspective, I'm doubtful that I would have read Newbie as scum helping Idle. His mindset seems to be of town who also assumes PO is town.


If I were scum, I would never have stated a theory like this, knowing that it could possibly be turned around and used on me like this. It would have been pretty blatantly suicidal. I voiced it because, even though I saw that it could possibly implicate me as well, I thought it pointed to Newbie as scum. (If people thought it was a decent argument, but I ended up getting lynched for it instead of Newbie, I hoped people might continue it and get Newbie with a later lynch). As scum, I would have every motivation in the world to try to steer discussion away the deadline matter, and certainly to avoid naming buddy-saving as a top suspicion of mine. As town (and a powerrole-less town at that), however, I would not have motivation to avoid it, if I thought it was likely the truth. Which I did think it was, because I thought Idle was very likely scum, and as I saw no town motivation (at that point) for Newbie's actions.
No. Pre-ISO 37, I would have killed myself, because I had forgotten that LC replaced in after myself. Post-ISO 37, I would have killed LC. N1 (which is pre-ISO 33) I had a feeling I was going to be killed (and would have killed myself N1 had I been somebody else who was scum). However, post-#37, I have remembered that LC has replaced in after me, and thus I would have killed LC N1 had I been the same person from the first hypothetical scenario but also with the added knowledge/recollection of LC replacing in after me.
Ok - I think that makes sense.
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Post Post #638 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:15 pm

Post by Purple Orange »

Hoppster wrote: It's also a small thing, but I wonder if it's just a coincedence that Idle's "attack" is ripped off PO (#393 pg16). We never conclusively decided that it was, but if it wasn't intentionally ripped off, then it's feasible that it could have been subconciously absorbed and regurgitated by Idle. I'm not sure how scum would think, but I'm fairly sure that if you were scum, the posts you would pay more attention to would be those of your partner (paticularly if you're first-time scum looking for guidance).
If you plan to use that as part your voting rationale, you should probably also consider this post.
Newbie2010 wrote: Replacements should not be judged starting with a clean slate. Unless the replaced didn't really do anything substantial. (Which is basically peaceandlies, and partially rj and Brog)
Why? Scummy behavior is scummy.One might not be able to get the opportunity to question the replacement on what the replaced did, but they should still such information to help them.
Here's the quote of mine Nacho says he ripped off, for comparison's sake (full post here; my ISO 8 also has some stuff):
Purple Orange wrote:You list Ragnarokio and Song and Fire as your top suspects (ostensibly for good reasons), and then you jump on the muh bandwagon instead?
First bolded part is what Nacho pointed to in his post; second is my emphasis.
Idle Thoughts wrote:Okay, after rereading the thread, I've come to my own conclusion...

Muh was town. I am town. The mafia had us set up- either way, it was a townie lynch. A victory for them. They didn't have to worry, they could have just sat back and watched as we squabbled over a meaningless lynch anyways.

So I believe Newbie and Purple Orange are very town- the mafia would have absolutely no need to bring it down to the wire like they did- again, the lynch didn't matter, we were both town.

So, I am turned to Hoppster, LordChronos, Song, and Nacho. They were inactive that night, making them all suspects. I will go back, carefully now, through their reasoning for voting either muh or myself.

Right now, through my first read (there will be another), I'd liek to say Hanzo/LordChronos is a good suspect.
Hanzo said, "Song Song Song, Rag Rag Rag," while quietly pushing for a hard muh lynch. Now that we know that Rag is town, it strengthens this opinion even more.


So, I'd like to place my vote there.

VOTE: LordChronos

A mafia slot is a mafia slot- doesn't matter if it's Hanzo or LordChronos.
I believe he was ripping off whatever he could find, perhaps with help from whoever his scum partner was, perhaps not. The fact that you attacked Idle's attempt at a case (with some apparent misunderstanding of it), while Newbie goes out of his way to clarify what Idle was saying and help him forward, is one of the things that makes me lean Newbie-scum over you scum. If he got any coaching in making his case, it was from Newbie. (CF the quotes references in the last part of this post).

You could still be scum, but have just decided to leave him to his own devices, I suppose -- you weren't around at deadline, and he was probably going to be the day's lynch, so I think you would have considered him already as good as lynched.

Still, I definitely get more of a town read from your interaction with him D2..out of time at the moment to finish the analysis I was doing of your interaction (and Newbie's) with him, but short version is that any possible coaching/buddying I DO see you do with him (both on Days 1 and 2) tends to include a vote against him that has a decent chance of contributing to his lynch.
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Post Post #639 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:25 pm

Post by Purple Orange »

Hoppster wrote:I also find it interesting that in PO's ISO #31, the scenario she sees as most likely is the one where the last scum tries to save their buddy Idle. Perhaps it's just an immensely good analysis, but I wouldn't have thought that most likely at all (as it would have been more discrete for scum just to let Idle be lynched imo), however, PO, rated that as her most likely scenario (and it turns out to be correct). From PO's perspective, I'm doubtful that I would have read Newbie as scum helping Idle. His mindset seems to be of town who also assumes PO is town.


Realized my answer to that, at least for the first couple sentences, was like textbook WIFOM.

Trying to redo this without falling into that problem: I believe there is a case to be made that I would have very little scum motivation to propose such a theory, but quite a bit of town motivation to do so. I don't know if this avoids the WIFOM problem -- it may just disguise it in fancier words, but it's the gist of part of what I was trying to communicate.

I can see how the appearance of dead-on-knowledge there looks scummy, and, unfortunately, there's not much I can say to that, except that I DID think it the most likely option. My (b) option was pretty close in probability to my (a), in my mind, but (a) did win out. I thought that Idle was likely scum (when there's two competing wagons, one of them is very likely scum, especially in a game this small). And I was failing to see town motivation for what Newbie did. My mind put the two together, and it came up with (a).
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Post Post #640 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:33 pm

Post by Newbie2010 »

Real life = Absence, sorry.

PO:
I commented that I found a lot of it pro-town in tone? :/ I openly admitted I hadn't had a scum read on you until the deadline actions. But how you've summarized what I was saying about you over the deadline actions is not what I was saying about you.

Maybe we just have a difference in vocabulary here. I never pushed a lynch on you because I said your actions were "anti-town" -- I pushed a lynch because I thought they were scummy, and I do try to make a distinction between those things.

Anti-town actions aren't necessarily scummy, but they CAN be. (And most scummy actions are anti-town by definition). Lurking can be anti-town, but if one's doing it to stay out of the limelight as a powerrole, it's not necessarily scummy. Clamming up like Hanzo did early in the thread, then Nacho later, can be anti-town, but there can also be town reasons for clamming up. Doing crazy stuff like Hanzo was doing can be anti-town, but he could honestly think that he was doing it for reasons that were good for the town.

I'm rather confused here, and I seriously don't know what you're expecting or looking for in a case. I went after you because I thought your actions came from scum motivation, not town motivation. I don't know how many more ways I can say this.
Yes, it does seem like a difference in vocabulary. What you are saying about me implies that you think I was anti-town during the deadline play (in my vocabulary) and you put suspicion on me because after Idle, everyone else has acted less anti-townish than me. To me, scummy means constant scum-slips, while anti-town means just plain bad play.
I would have called it scummy, and you scum. One can do anti-town things without being scum. Again, maybe it's just a disagreement in vocabulary here, but I still don't understand why you keep trying to say what I did was a policy lynch.
And I'm pretty sure that indeed what you are saying is a policy lynch (in my vocabulary) because basing a case on only anti-town things (things that come only from scum motivation) is pretty much a policy lynch. You could say that my pushing on muh was also a policy lynch, mainly because I didn't receive the same scum-vibes from some of Idle's slips that Nacho pointed out and of course muh was more anti-town compared to Idle. The closest you get to a case on me is:
I had a decent town read on Newbie throughout the rest of the thread, up until this, actually. Forcing a self-hammer, though, is hard for me get around. He says that it's accepted practice on the other site he plays at, though, so it IS possible there was no scummy or malicious intent in what he did. In which case (b) would be the more likely scenario, and I need to more seriously explore options other than Newbie.
Which is about the closest I got to a case on muh.
But we had no idea at the time that there even WAS a cop, and you were very specific in singling out Nacho. If he was breadcrumbing cop, he obviously had decided not to say anything about it then. If all you wanted to say was "if a cop has two innocent reads, or even just one, he should claim"-- then say it more vaguely like that, and avoid drawing attention to the person that you think might be the cop. If you wanted Nacho to give an actual reason for his reads, then simply yell at him to give his reasons. Obviously Hopp and my latching onto the matter forced it far more into the limelight -- but once you brought up the possibility of a specific player being the cop, the cat was out of the bag, so to speak, and any anonymity and choice in the matter he might have preserved was gone.
It just seemed so obvious a potential breadcrumb that I pointed it out to get other townies to see it. If I were the final scum, it would've been better for me to ask the cop to claim instead of asking for a Nacho-claim because I know that Nacho did not investigate me, so there's not any scum motivation behind that singling-out action. Not saying that me saying that would mean that I = scum because of the WIFOM argument, just saying that it is not anti-town to state the cop-read. And I'm sure that if I wanted a cop claim, I would have to be asked why, and then I have to bring up the Nacho case to support my claim anyways. So to me it felt like claiming Nacho-cop-read was justified.
I stated in that very post itself that I gave my reads because I thought it was already apparent where I stood. (And as you note later, I fuzzed the Hoppster/Nacho line).

I also wasn't 100% certain it was bad to give reads -- I was waiting on Nacho's response before I made a final call on that. Though I think my "it's already pretty evident from my posting" sentence indicates where my doubts lay, and that the following paragraph made it clear I thought there might seriously be a disadvantage to answering your questions. I even made sure to put in an "if there's no drawback" in my counter-question to you.

I was also quite wary of giving you advice, because I thought you were the most likely scum candidate if Song flipped town. For the previous reasons mentioned, but very much compounded by the fact you had asked us all for our reads, but hadn't volunteered your own. I didn't see you acting in good faith there at all. (This is also one of the reasons I went after muh early in the thread -- asking a set of questions of other people, but not answering them himself)
It is never good to give out reads unless someone requests such reads. Of course, I totally expected someone to ask for the read, but in case some people went inactive and D-3 neared deadline I would conceal my reads to myself due to a lack of interest.
It looks like your reasoning for voting for Song was ostensibly pragmatic -- you didn't think she was the scummiest, but (somehow?) thought it would best narrow down town options to lynch her? In neither scenario would Newbie (the person you said you personally thought was the scummiest) have a chance of getting lynched, however. Either Song would be scum, and we'd be done, or Song would be town, and we'd lynch Nacho. So what made you eliminate Newbie as a lynch option at that point?
The only real thing I see scummy about this is the fact that Hoppster buddies up to Nacho quite a bit. However, this is consistent with his Doc-protect of Nacho. The only real problem is that I still don't buy Hoppster's PO protect on N3. I mean, if you get town vibes from PO but basically sheep Nacho until he is wrong, won't a Nacho-protect be better? Nacho really backed down from the Song lynch during the middle of D-3, and PO and then I pushed it back up. At around the same time, you backed down from the Song lynch as well, and you weren't even on the Song wagon as Song got hammered.
If I were scum, I would never have stated a theory like this, knowing that it could possibly be turned around and used on me like this. It would have been pretty blatantly suicidal. I voiced it because, even though I saw that it could possibly implicate me as well, I thought it pointed to Newbie as scum. (If people thought it was a decent argument, but I ended up getting lynched for it instead of Newbie, I hoped people might continue it and get Newbie with a later lynch). As scum, I would have every motivation in the world to try to steer discussion away the deadline matter, and certainly to avoid naming buddy-saving as a top suspicion of mine. As town (and a powerrole-less town at that), however, I would not have motivation to avoid it, if I thought it was likely the truth. Which I did think it was, because I thought Idle was very likely scum, and as I saw no town motivation (at that point) for Newbie's actions.
Why did you not state that fact here:
At that point in the game, both Hoppster and myself were including ourselves in our lists of suspects whenever we thought our analysis and sets of options pointed to us as well as anyone else. I think we both stopped doing that later on (?), but at that point, we were still engaging in the practice. The statement you quote was the summary/conclusion of my a-b-c-d-e listing previously in the post, where I listed myself as a suspect several times. Given the listing, it would also have been strange if I'd said "grill Newbie, but not me," when I hadn't yet laid out the various ways I thought your actions and my actions differed that night. I didn't like the fact that my own conclusions pointed to me as a top suspect, but they did, and I couldn't avoid it, so thus counted on the differences coming to light and being discussed once people started examining both of us.
This is the second time you are talking about the abcde casework thing, and it seems as if you are changing your standpoint, from saying that it would be awkward to saying that it was not anti-town.
If you plan to use that as part your voting rationale, you should probably also consider this post.
Where in that post do I relate to Idle's posts? If you are saying that me saying Idle is active lurking is your analogy, you should note that I pointed that out for muh even more so and first. If you are saying that my 15 games comment, muh brought that up before I did. I only picked it up because muh said something about it.

And about the replacements thing, I don't see any relation at all.
I believe he was ripping off whatever he could find, perhaps with help from whoever his scum partner was, perhaps not. The fact that you attacked Idle's attempt at a case (with some apparent misunderstanding of it), while Newbie goes out of his way to clarify what Idle was saying and help him forward, is one of the things that makes me lean Newbie-scum over you scum. If he got any coaching in making his case, it was from Newbie. (CF the quotes references in the last part of this post).
Agree 100%.
You could still be scum, but have just decided to leave him to his own devices, I suppose -- you weren't around at deadline, and he was probably going to be the day's lynch, so I think you would have considered him already as good as lynched.
Actually, if anyone bussed Idle, it would be either Hoppster or Nacho. Hoppster's unvote of muh in post 297
I agree with Ragnarokio that, although acting scummy, IT's behaviour could just be inexperience. IT may be a better case than muh, I agree, but I firmly believe that Song should be the one to be lynched (first at least).


VOTE: Song
Is actually most of the momentum that shifted the muh wagon to the Idle wagon. Not that bussing is a huge scum-tell, because it didn't really hint to relations between Hoppster and Idle.

PREVIEW EDIT:
Trying to redo this without falling into that problem: I believe there is a case to be made that I would have very little scum motivation to propose such a theory, but quite a bit of town motivation to do so. I don't know if this avoids the WIFOM problem -- it may just disguise it in fancier words, but it's the gist of part of what I was trying to communicate.
It doesn't matter. Null-town actions are still null-town and not anti-town.

Also, forgot one thing:
(a) Idle's scum, and his buddy was making a last-ditch move to try and save him. (Newbie or me = other mafia)
(b) Idle's scum, and his buddy was sitting on the sidelines after bussing him, letting Newbie and me argue ourselves blue in the face. (Song, Nacho, Hoppster, or LordChaos = other mafia)
(c) Idle's town, and the mafia were snug in their beds, secure in a town lynch. (Song, Nacho, Hopp, Chaos = possible mafia)
(d) Idle's town, and Newbie was trying a ridiculously risky push for a role claim while his buddy slept soundly. (Newbie = mafia, everyone else but me = possible mafia. )
(e) Idle's town, and both mafia are idiots made a ridiculously risky push for a role claim. (Newbie and me = mafia)
You are saying that if I am scum, then I made a ridiculous risk for the muh roleclaim.
His was a quite methodical push for a self-hammer...trying to blame it on time constraints or pressure or whatnot would be stupid for a scum version of him. If he's town - yes, he's being honest and consistent, and saying what he really was thinking. And if he's scum, he's presenting a consistent rationalization and defense of his actions. Because blaming his actions on time constraints and pressure would be contradictory and suicidal -- based on his deadline posts it's obvious he WAS thinking through what he was doing then.
So I took a ridiculous risk, but I also knew what I was doing?
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Post Post #641 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:43 pm

Post by Newbie2010 »

Hoppster:
While if Newbie is town I do understand the angle he is coming from, looking at it with Nacho's town reads thrown anything but certain (as it is now) I am slightly suspicious that PO and myself both failed to jump to the conclusion that Nacho could be cop with his unexplained reads, despite the fact we would be coming from a similar viewpoint as Newbie if he were town. However, the fact that only he decided that it showed up Nacho as a cop candidate makes me wonder. It did seem a bit to me as a way of him to seem that he was adding something to town (advising cop to claim) and also re-iterating his town-ness (Hey guys, I'm town, so I think his town read on me might be cop investigation).
More or less it was because his town-read on me was right after
Yes. With an Idle Thoughts scumflip, however, I most likely won't feel the same.
---
Yeah, that's my heavily flawed logic summed up. I discounted Newbie because he didn't fit into the logic. I assumed that when it came to my read vs Nacho's read, Nacho's would be correct. So in essence, the answer to your question is "yes". I didn't think he'd be 100% accurate, but pretty damn near enough so that he's basically 100% accurate.

I didn't want to convince Nacho that Newbie was scum because I didn't really believe it myself. The only person I have been near 100% convinced of being scum at any point was Idle Thoughts (however I was definitely quite sure of Song near the end of D3).
How can you be near 100% convinced that someone is scum without encouraging others to help you push the case?
Towards the end of the day, Song was much more scummy than Newbie in my opinion. Paticularly with the whole thing where she concluded there was likely to be scum on her wagon. Having said that, the main reason I found that scummy was because it was so incorrect, and of course I am just as guilty with my auto-lynch campaign. I wouldn't really have a problem if you decide to lynch me because I'm finding it difficult to decide between you and Newbie and my cases suck (having reviewed my own case on Newbie I have no substance and just a general 'feeling') and I'm probably very little use. I can't even defend myself adequately. Worst comes to worse I'm just going to flip a coin and blindly vote for one of the two and hope. Don't get me wrong, I'll be disappointed (and a little bit guilty) but I just really can't find anything substantial on either of you. I know as I type this that I probably look scummy (and I suspect I'll be blamed post-game if we lose) but I'm hoping this will absolve some of the blame. Really, the only thing I can think of doing right now is the said coin flip.
I would hate for this game to deadline right now, but I'm not at all convinced that PO is scum and I am still doubting the N3 protection in your doctor claim. I think it is perfectly fine to doubt your reads until the end of this 21-day LYLO. Just don't no-lynch :P
However. I'm not giving up just yet, so I'm having one last stab. It's not paticularly game-breaking, but just a little observation really. In terms of post-D1 play, PO and Newbie took two decidedly different routes over the muh self-hammer: Newbie tried to justify his decision and just really stuck to his guns I suppose, but PO blamed the pressure and whatnot for a stupid mistake. Okay, so now for me it seems likely that one of the two of you were aiming to save your scumbuddy (as I see no other motivation). For scum, I think it is much riskier sticking to and justifying your decision to vote muh than it is to blame the time constraints and risk of No Lynch. I also find it interesting that in PO's ISO #31, the scenario she sees as most likely is the one where the last scum tries to save their buddy Idle. Perhaps it's just an immensely good analysis, but I wouldn't have thought that most likely at all (as it would have been more discrete for scum just to let Idle be lynched imo), however, PO, rated that as her most likely scenario (and it turns out to be correct). From PO's perspective, I'm doubtful that I would have read Newbie as scum helping Idle. His mindset seems to be of town who also assumes PO is town.
How does risk-taking and not risk-taking have to do with scum strategy?
It's also a small thing, but I wonder if it's just a coincedence that Idle's "attack" is ripped off PO (#393 pg16). We never conclusively decided that it was, but if it wasn't intentionally ripped off, then it's feasible that it could have been subconciously absorbed and regurgitated by Idle. I'm not sure how scum would think, but I'm fairly sure that if you were scum, the posts you would pay more attention to would be those of your partner (paticularly if you're first-time scum looking for guidance).
Refer to all of Idle's many buddying posts to see why this is a really weak tell in my opinion. (and so are the interaction tells I pointed out about PO) Not saying that you are wrong with this, just that you need to convince me that this is even a tell at all.
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Post Post #642 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:50 pm

Post by Newbie2010 »

Hanzo, I don't think Purple Orange is lurking. If he is trying to, he's not doing it very well- he's made a bunch of constructive votes, and then hasn't posted for a little. That's okay with me for the moment, but a day or two more and I'll agree with you.
Idle getting PO's gender wrong doesn't seem like two scum chatting in a QT, especially considering Idle has gotten all the other genders right in all his 47 posts. Not really something anyone could defend against, just something I noticed.

Thinking this through again, Hoppster's doc crumb reacting to Ragnarokio's N1 death could be a cop crumb as well, because hypothetically a cop that investigate Ragnarokio would give off the same general feeling of frustration, but to a greater extent. If Hoppster were the scum RB, he would still need to crumb both cop and doc because of the need to counterclaim if a cop claimed or a doc claimed.
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Post Post #643 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 3:03 pm

Post by Newbie2010 »

One problem I see with Hoppster's play is that he has contradicted himself without much of an explanation.
Hoppster for everything wrote: NEWBIE2010 case:
This has convinced me that he (Newbie2010)'s not scum, in that he's willing to self-hammer for a PL.
With you(Newbie2010) having made that post earlier, I would expect you to have some sort of response to Idle's scumflip, but you've just completely ignored it. Very scummy to me indeed.
SONG OF ICE AND FIRE case:
Sorry Song. Although you haven't really seemed that scummy to me recently (Newbie's seemed more scummy imo), I'm going to trust in Nacho's town reads.
Besides, the vote isn't made so much on Song's scumminess, but by eliminating other possibilites (albeit inadequately in hindsight). And the only assumption I am making about his reasoning is that it's correct.
Paticularly as I still believe there's a possibility of Newbie being scum now.
He has buddied with every person other than Song D3 as well, all the time saying that I am scummier and not really convincing anyone to push my case.
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Post Post #644 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 3:11 pm

Post by Newbie2010 »

And I set a trap here:
I'm buying Hoppster's doc claim right now, but once again, the reversal of the cop-speculation case really hurt my PO-scum read. Like I said, I'm probably still missing things so I'm not going to vote yet.
I never really fully liked Hoppster's doc claim and actions, but I wanted to see how he would react to this: He reacts by buddying hard with me, to the point of FoS'ing PO, which is a big tell in my opinion because before hand he never mentions anything about my posts being townie.

UnFoS: Purple Orange, FoS x2: Hoppster


In addition to
However. I'm not giving up just yet, so I'm having one last stab. It's not paticularly game-breaking, but just a little observation really.
Which is giving me deja vu because of:
Idle Thoughts wrote:@Nacho: Not scummy, just the tiniest bit amusing.
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Post Post #645 (ISO) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 3:11 pm

Post by Newbie2010 »

By the way FoS x2 means basically more than what I had against Purple Orange.
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Post Post #646 (ISO) » Wed Jan 19, 2011 11:02 am

Post by Hoppster »

Purple Orange wrote:Still, I definitely get more of a town read from your interaction with him D2..out of time at the moment to finish the analysis I was doing of your interaction (and Newbie's) with him, but short version is that any possible coaching/buddying I DO see you do with him (both on Days 1 and 2) tends to include a vote against him that has a decent chance of contributing to his lynch.
Yeah... through this game I've noticed that people jump at very small things as signs of buddying (such as Newbie helping Idle with quote tags) which quite frankly I find ridiculous. (I'm not blaming you, I'm just making a general statement.) If that's the case, in future I would be loathe to advise anybody about anything for fear of being labelled as buddying.

Newbie2010 wrote:The only real thing I see scummy about this is the fact that Hoppster buddies up to Nacho quite a bit. However, this is consistent with his Doc-protect of Nacho. The only real problem is that I still don't buy Hoppster's PO protect on N3. I mean, if you get town vibes from PO but basically sheep Nacho until he is wrong, won't a Nacho-protect be better? Nacho really backed down from the Song lynch during the middle of D-3, and PO and then I pushed it back up. At around the same time, you backed down from the Song lynch as well, and you weren't even on the Song wagon as Song got hammered.
You could still be scum, but have just decided to leave him to his own devices, I suppose -- you weren't around at deadline, and he was probably going to be the day's lynch, so I think you would have considered him already as good as lynched.
Actually, if anyone bussed Idle, it would be either Hoppster or Nacho. Hoppster's unvote of muh in post 297
I agree with Ragnarokio that, although acting scummy, IT's behaviour could just be inexperience. IT may be a better case than muh, I agree, but I firmly believe that Song should be the one to be lynched (first at least).


VOTE: Song
Is actually most of the momentum that shifted the muh wagon to the Idle wagon. Not that bussing is a huge scum-tell, because it didn't really hint to relations between Hoppster and Idle.
I'm going to take all of that in general as a compliment in that I made the Idle-lynch happen. :wink:

I do personally think that had I been scum I would have made a pretty damn good Idle-bus.

Newbie2010 wrote:
Yeah, that's my heavily flawed logic summed up. I discounted Newbie because he didn't fit into the logic. I assumed that when it came to my read vs Nacho's read, Nacho's would be correct. So in essence, the answer to your question is "yes". I didn't think he'd be 100% accurate, but pretty damn near enough so that he's basically 100% accurate.

I didn't want to convince Nacho that Newbie was scum because I didn't really believe it myself. The only person I have been near 100% convinced of being scum at any point was Idle Thoughts (however I was definitely quite sure of Song near the end of D3).
How can you be near 100% convinced that someone is scum without encouraging others to help you push the case?
You misunderstand me. Why would I push a case I don't have faith in? While what I could see made me suspect you as scum, taking Nacho's views into account I was swayed into thinking I had made mistakes. As I've said, my previous cases lack much detail.
Benmage: First, for the sake of irony. I'm going to illustrate how completely idiotic and hypocritical scumhunter is.
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Post Post #647 (ISO) » Wed Jan 19, 2011 11:03 am

Post by Hoppster »

Newbie2010 wrote:I would hate for this game to deadline right now, but I'm not at all convinced that PO is scum and I am still doubting the N3 protection in your doctor claim. I think it is perfectly fine to doubt your reads until the end of this 21-day LYLO. Just don't no-lynch :P

<snip>


How does risk-taking and not risk-taking have to do with scum strategy?
1) I don't understand what's so hard for you to believe about it. At the time I decided that PO was probably most likely town, and I also thought it'd be very challenging deciding between Nacho and yourself at lylo.

2) Um, everything? Why take unneccessary risks? Of course, if you're scum, you'd be the better one to advise in scum strategy, so please go on and enlighten me if that's the case.

Newbie2010 wrote:
Hoppster for everything wrote: NEWBIE2010 case:
This has convinced me that he (Newbie2010)'s not scum, in that he's willing to self-hammer for a PL.
With you(Newbie2010) having made that post earlier, I would expect you to have some sort of response to Idle's scumflip, but you've just completely ignored it. Very scummy to me indeed.
SONG OF ICE AND FIRE case:
Sorry Song. Although you haven't really seemed that scummy to me recently (Newbie's seemed more scummy imo), I'm going to trust in Nacho's town reads.
Besides, the vote isn't made so much on Song's scumminess, but by eliminating other possibilites (albeit inadequately in hindsight). And the only assumption I am making about his reasoning is that it's correct.
Paticularly as I still believe there's a possibility of Newbie being scum now.
Okay. In general, I'm an indecisive person (if you recall I was called out as a flip-flopper by Song). Take for example my state of mind right now. I'm still swinging towards PO whereas previously I had mentally cleared her. I judge my impressions of people usually on a post-by-post basis - ie, if I see something scummy or realise that something has scum implications I'll point it out. I'm not good at ISOing and analysing and pointing out scummy details, so I sure hope the other townie is. I don't have time at the moment (I'm just quickly finishing this post) but at some point in the next two days I will give a detailed run-down of my logic. I probably won't get in a post tomorrow though as I'm busy in RL.
Benmage: First, for the sake of irony. I'm going to illustrate how completely idiotic and hypocritical scumhunter is.
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Post Post #648 (ISO) » Wed Jan 19, 2011 11:04 am

Post by Hoppster »

Newbie2010 wrote:And I set a trap here:
I'm buying Hoppster's doc claim right now, but once again, the reversal of the cop-speculation case really hurt my PO-scum read. Like I said, I'm probably still missing things so I'm not going to vote yet.
I never really fully liked Hoppster's doc claim and actions, but I wanted to see how he would react to this: He reacts by buddying hard with me, to the point of FoS'ing PO, which is a big tell in my opinion because before hand he never mentions anything about my posts being townie.

UnFoS: Purple Orange, FoS x2: Hoppster
Yes, that's right, your cunning trap in #614, which of course I fell for hook line and sinker. That's why I ask questions towards you #624, and try (but probably fail) to attack you #631. It's only literally the last post I can see any evidence for buddying. Even then it's incredibly dubious imo, as if you notice my playstyle I often switch my suspicions between people based on information/thoughts that crop up to me.

I am also incredibly sceptical of traps in general. It's too easy for people to just post something, and then as a way of retracting it say "OH IT WAS A TRAP LOL". For instance, in this case, I could say that my so-called buddying up to you was simply a trap to see if you would go for the suddenly easy lynch target. Of course, it wasn't. But I could have chosen to say that.

Furthermore, you previously state that I buddy up a lot (which I may do, if I do it's subconciously/my play style), in which case, why should this case be significant? Am I forbidden from FoS'ing now it's lylo (PO previously FoS'd you)? Should I just self-hammer in this case as it's pointless me even being here? Or should I just cast out a random vote and hope I'm right?


I also think you are reading far too much into this whole soft claim thing. I genuinely didn't feel that it was a soft claim in any sense. If anything, it's slightly scummy. According to the wiki, it's a scum tell.
Benmage: First, for the sake of irony. I'm going to illustrate how completely idiotic and hypocritical scumhunter is.
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Post Post #649 (ISO) » Wed Jan 19, 2011 11:25 am

Post by Newbie2010 »

Yeah... through this game I've noticed that people jump at very small things as signs of buddying (such as Newbie helping Idle with quote tags) which quite frankly I find ridiculous. (I'm not blaming you, I'm just making a general statement.) If that's the case, in future I would be loathe to advise anybody about anything for fear of being labelled as buddying.
Buddying isn't a strong tell, but buddying with opinions that clearly do not reflect what you think if you are town is quite a strong tell.
I do personally think that had I been scum I would have made a pretty damn good Idle-bus.
Like I said I don't 100% see the bus, but neither do I see a PO bus against Idle.
You misunderstand me. Why would I push a case I don't have faith in? While what I could see made me suspect you as scum, taking Nacho's views into account I was swayed into thinking I had made mistakes. As I've said, my previous cases lack much detail.
Why'd you vote for me at the start of Day 3? Were you reaction-fishing?
1) I don't understand what's so hard for you to believe about it. At the time I decided that PO was probably most likely town, and I also thought it'd be very challenging deciding between Nacho and yourself at lylo.
This PO / me decision sure seems to be the hardest thing in the world for you right now. (Of course, my decision between you two is just as hard, so I'm resorting to gambitting more than anything.)Why did you trust all of Nacho's reads EVEN AFTER he backed down on Song is what I don't understand. You don't place a second vote on Song after I decide to vote Song but you have no faith in my case and you still suspect Song, and you don't put a second vote on me after PO's case on me D3, but you immediately vote Song when Nacho puts suspicion on her at the start of D3? If this isn't complete trust of Nacho = town as doctor or scum I can't really see what it is. Why was Nacho not as townie-like as Purple D3?
2) Um, everything? Why take unneccessary risks? Of course, if you're scum, you'd be the better one to advise in scum strategy, so please go on and enlighten me if that's the case.
Why did andrew94 fakeclaim cop in Newbie 1020? Do you think his risk paid off? And besides, scum taking risks can lead to this exact WIFOM that we are discussing about almost every case.
Furthermore, you previously state that I buddy up a lot (which I may do, if I do it's subconciously/my play style), in which case, why should this case be significant? Am I forbidden from FoS'ing now it's lylo (PO previously FoS'd you)? Should I just self-hammer in this case as it's pointless me even being here? Or should I just cast out a random vote and hope I'm right?
No. You have no reason to believe that PO is scum mainly because of your lack of a case and immediate FoS. It seems quite logical that your FoS is an attempt to buddy with me. And really, you were talking more about me compared to PO.
I also think you are reading far too much into this whole soft claim thing. I genuinely didn't feel that it was a soft claim in any sense. If anything, it's slightly scummy. According to the wiki, it's a scum tell.
If I were looking for softclaims that would be the first one that I'd spot.

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