Mini 809 ~ Mafia ViPod (Game Over!)

[elvis_knits]

Oh, my ability flavor? I can't bear to sleep alone, so I go elsewhere every night.

[tubby216]

ok we are all getting a lil lurktastic right now,, we need o figure this out before the battery runs out

[VP Baltar]

I'll give hero a bit more time, but I definitely plan on posting my thoughts today.

[Hero764]

Well that basically solidifies my town read on EK, and should make the rest of this game a slam dunk with the pool of potential suspects so small.

How does that solidify anything?

Hero, looking back I see you never claimed your flavor. Could you do that please.

Not sure how it matters but ok. My song is "In the air tonight".

Sotty: If you got no result with Juls why were you attacking her?

[Vi]

Someday love will find you
Break those chains that bind you
One night will remind you
How we touched and went our separate ways

Vote Count XLIV:

You know I still love you

X (L-3) ~ Hero764

Minimum (L-4)

Not Voting:

elvis_knits, hasdgfas, tubby216, Sotty7, VP Baltar, X
[size=0]e_knits 0 | Hero 0 | hascow 2 | tubby 0 | Sotty7 1 | VP Baltar 0 | X 1[/size]

Battery Power:

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(37%)

[VP Baltar]

How does that solidify anything?

Because if I have a town read on somebody and then they claim to be confirming people as town (one of which is me, who I

know

is town), that is a pretty good indicator that I was correct and EK is likely who she says she is. Scum do not want anyone to be confirmed town at this point in the game because it limits the pool of mislynches that are possible. Speaking of which, you seem to be doing a lot of that.

Not sure how it matters but ok. My song is "In the air tonight".

It matters because the town can evaluate the believability of the claims if necessary.

Now, moving forward with my analysis:

I believe EK because she is my strongest town read and my reason stated above. Because of that I believe Sotty is town. That changes my scum pool slightly, but nothing too much.

Going off my start of the day list, that would mean that Hero, tubby and hascow would be my most likely candidates for scum.

HOWEVER, I do believe hascow on a gut level and I take some issue with X's claim because it basically sounds like the perfect role for a scum to claim and slip by on their way to victory. Super Saint is a role that makes the town afraid to lynch them once it is known publically. The flavor of "Live and Let Die" doesn't necessarily make sense either because, at a literal level, the title means the exact opposite of his role. Sounds more like if he lives, the town would be the ones dying.

One thing I found ironic about his claim was that if he was really a Super Saint, then why didn't he use this post as a chance to breadcrumb? There are not saints in Judaism as far as I know. Why not say you are Catholic or something in that post? I don't think you could ask for a more perfect breadcrumbing opportunity.

From my point of view, I think it would be best to lynch X with a hero (preferably) or tubby hammer. If X is lying, he's dead scum. If X is who he says he is, we are still highly likely to hit scum from the supersaint fallout.

I also have some comments on X's claim that will wait until the end of MC.

If you have some information to share now that is relevant, go ahead.

[Hero764]

Because if I have a town read on somebody and then they claim to be confirming people as town (one of which is me, who I know is town), that is a pretty good indicator that I was correct and EK is likely who she says she is. Scum do not want anyone to be confirmed town at this point in the game because it limits the pool of mislynches that are possible. Speaking of which, you seem to be doing a lot of that.

1) You aren't confirmed town until she is confirmed hider. She hasn't effectively confirmed anything. 2) Scum have just as much interest in not making obvious connections with both of their partners as they do in not confirming townies.

Could you elaborate on the last sentence?

I'm all for an X lynch. I will hammer if everyone wants me to(rather than tubby), although obviously I would prefer for tubby to do it. I like your point about the song title he gave, but the part about the Judaism thing just reeks of bullshitting. Sends bad vibes.

[VP Baltar]

1) You aren't confirmed town until she is confirmed hider. She hasn't effectively confirmed anything.

Ok, let me rephrase it because I don't think I was clear. I'm not saying she or Sotty or I should be considered confirmed from the rest of the town's perspective, but from my perspective she has a very high likelihood of being town. Basically put yourself in my shoes, if someone claimed you were town based on the information they received from their role, and you knew you were town, that person would have a higher likelihood of being town to you, no? I don't see any motivation for scum at this point in the game to be helping to partially clear people and limit who they could have for potential mislynches. Does the potential for EK to be scum still exist? Yes, of course, but it doesn't seem likely to me, so I am comfortable calling her town.


What I was saying with that last sentence is that you seem to be fighting me a bit today when I suggest that I think someone is town. You're quick to pop in and go 'well, hey, not necessarily'. You could simply be cautious town (though your quick casting of a vote today doesn't indicate that), but you could also be scum who, like I said, is trying to keep his options wide open.

[hasdgfas]

Ok, so, X's claim. First off:

Super Saint is a role that makes the town afraid to lynch them once it is known publically.

I completely disagree. I go by the rule "lynch all claimed supersaints". That way, either you catch lying scum with the lynch, or you have a scummy player hammer the supersaint, which either gets rid of scum or a distraction.

Plus, like VPB already mentioned, Live And Let Die sounds exactly like a scum song.

One more thing:

brand new drug is another hit of heuy lewis,

he also did "addicted to love"

Oh really?

[tubby216]

One more thing:

brand new drug is another hit of heuy lewis,

he also did "addicted to love"

Oh really?

omfg i am so retarded!! i get them mixed up but the cow is correct

and if you want me to hammer the claimed super saint i'm down i have no issues in doing it

[X]

HOWEVER, I do believe hascow on a gut level and I take some issue with X's claim because it basically sounds like the perfect role for a scum to claim and slip by on their way to victory. Super Saint is a role that makes the town afraid to lynch them once it is known publically. The flavor of "Live and Let Die" doesn't necessarily make sense either because, at a literal level, the title means the exact opposite of his role. Sounds more like if he lives, the town would be the ones dying.

Quite honestly, I was considering lying and just calling myself a Vanilla Townie because of the heightened suspicion that my role would bring/has brought me. But I figured that it would hurt the town most if I kept quiet and town hammered me.

One thing I found ironic about his claim was that if he was really a Super Saint, then why didn't he use this post as a chance to breadcrumb? There are not saints in Judaism as far as I know. Why not say you are Catholic or something in that post? I don't think you could ask for a more perfect breadcrumbing opportunity.

Good idea. I really wish I had done that. But it didn't occur to me. I've never breadcrumbed before.

From my point of view, I think it would be best to lynch X with a hero (preferably) or tubby hammer. If X is lying, he's dead scum. If X is who he says he is, we are still highly likely to hit scum from the supersaint fallout.

Let's say I am who I say I am (which I am), and that scum hammers me. Then the game goes to Night with 5 players alive. If the NK goes through and there are 3 scum in total, the game's over. So that's not a good position to be in.

And the vast majority of comments so far have been on me? Surprising. Because look at EK & Cow's claims:
EK claims Hider, and that Sotty and VPB are town.
Cow claims Jailkeeper, and that tubby was Jailkept N3 (among other things).

Doesn't look like a lot at first, but look at all of the implications if they're both town:
EK, Sotty, VPB, and Cow are all town.
tubby did not kill last night.

Which means that Hero, tubby and I are the only possible scum, and Hero or I performed the kill last Night. I think that there's a really good chance that one of them is lying, as I highly doubt a two-person scumteam. I plan to give the thread a good re-read tomorrow and see which one of them is more likely lying.

[hasdgfas]

I highly doubt a two-person scumteam.

why's that?

[X]

I highly doubt a two-person scumteam.

why's that?

Because of regular balance. The two-person scumteam I'm talking about would be tubby & Hero. So if everyone else is telling the truth but those two, the role list would be:

Hider
Tracker
Jailkeeper
Supersaint
6 Vanilla Townies
2 Mafia (of some sort)

Those two mafia would have to be souped up a lot to have a fair balance.

Cow, do you believe EK's claim?

[hasdgfas]

I believe her role, but I have seen Hider as a scum ability, so her role being true doesn't make her town. Saying that, however, I don't see her in my top 2 scum.

[VP Baltar]

Those two mafia would have to be souped up a lot to have a fair balance.

I don't believe so. That town powerrole list doesn't look all that strong to me, honestly. Hider and Supersaint are both really swingy roles that can end up benefiting scum as much as they do town. Particularly if EK is telling the truth and she dies when hiding with scum. So, you basically have JK (which could hurt town by limiting abilities) and a tracker. Neither of these roles are confirmable to town and would leave their players still open to suspicion upon claim.

I agree that the scum team probably have power roles to help balance, but two scum is certainly not out of the equation, and in fact seems likely given Shanba's recent numbers on the amount scum wins. .

Yes, if you are who you say you are and there are three scum, then there is a possibility we would lose by lynching you, but I'm more inclined to believe a two person scum team at this point. Killing you (if you flip scum) could result in a NK tonight if hascow is who he says he is and blocks properly. That would almost guarantee a win for town tomorrow.

[VP Baltar]

EBWOP: could result in

no

NK

[X]

I believe her role, but I have seen Hider as a scum ability, so her role being true doesn't make her town. Saying that, however, I don't see her in my top 2 scum.

Really? Do you have a link? I don't see the logic behind making scum a Hider, but all right.

I don't believe so. That town powerrole list doesn't look all that strong to me, honestly. Hider and Supersaint are both really swingy roles that can end up benefiting scum as much as they do town. Particularly if EK is telling the truth and she dies when hiding with scum. So, you basically have JK (which could hurt town by limiting abilities) and a tracker. Neither of these roles are confirmable to town and would leave their players still open to suspicion upon claim.

I didn't think about it that way. If played properly, they can be very strong together, but the downsides are pretty bad if played improperly. So a tubby/Hero team is possible...but I still don't want to count on there being 2 scum for this to work.

[tubby216]

so if hero is scum does that make scum, or vica verca?

[elvis_knits]

Since there's three scum, which means that 3 of these four are scum:

X
Hero
tubby
cow

Since X is supersaint, we should have Hero hammer so that he takes Hero with him and gives us 2 for 1.

[hasdgfas]

Since there's three scum, which means that 3 of these four are scum:

X
Hero
tubby
cow

Since X is supersaint, we should have Hero hammer so that he takes Hero with him and gives us 2 for 1.

I'm really surprised at your insistence that there's 3 scum, not to mention, if X is scum, he's probably lying about being SS, meaning we won't lose two scum. I'm really confused at what you're saying here.

[VP Baltar]

That post made no sense EK. Why are you certain there are three scum? Why do you think X is supersaint if he's scum?

[Hero764]

What I was saying with that last sentence is that you seem to be fighting me a bit today when I suggest that I think someone is town. You're quick to pop in and go 'well, hey, not necessarily'. You could simply be cautious town (though your quick casting of a vote today doesn't indicate that), but you could also be scum who, like I said, is trying to keep his options wide open.

Fair enough. I just don't like how you dismiss someone as town for pretty odd reasons(actively scumhunting, which scum have just as much reason to do as town).

If we're gonna have me hammer X then I better

unvote

. I'll hammer as soon as he gets to 2 votes(again unless you guys want tubby to).

[VP Baltar]

I'll

Vote: X

now, but please don't hammer until we get closer to deadline.

[hasdgfas]

I'd prefer a tubby hammer, tbh, as I find him much scummier than hero.

[X]

so if hero is scum does that make scum, or vica verca?

This is incomprehensible.

Since there's three scum, which means that 3 of these four are scum:

This sounds like someone in the know.

FoS: EK

. EK, do you believe Cow?