Newbie 937 ~ Mafia Lite [Game Over]

[Exilon]

Hi Zach! =)
Since you're a replacement, what are your thoughts on the game so far?
That aside, if doc's action timed out, then either he's faking it or mafia was trying to pull something out of his sleeves. In what situations would mafia no kill (assming he's not Zach)? Either he timed out, or he tried to make it look like he was protected. In any case, we're left with epic WIFOM. Not really helpful.
VOTE: Nolynch

[KageLord]

Right now I'm leaning towards the idea that scum timed out as well as doc. Either that, or they are the same person (obviously not real doc in that case). I don't know what they would have to gain, unless they were Damien/Zach. But, since Damien was V/LA and apparently hadn't PMed the mod... I don't think even if Damien/Zach is scum that he no killed on purpose. For any of the rest of us, by killing someone, they would leave themselves with a pretty good chance of winning since I'm sure cases could be made against all of the remaining players (not particularly strong cases, but...). Well, we'll just have to see what scum does this night.

VOTE: no lynch

[Zachrulez]

It would have been better to hold off hammering no lynch so that I could have had more time to read the game and decide what the best move is for my doc protection...

[Excedrin]

Unvote

Does this count? If not, oh well.

Anyway you can still read until KittyMo sees it right?

[KittyMo]

Vote Count XXXIX

[3] No Lynch - (Excedrin, Exilon, KageLord)

[0] Damien777 - ()
[0] Excedrin - ()
[0] Exilon - ()
[0] KageLord - ()

[1]

Not Voting

- (Zachrulez)

With

4

alive, it's

3

to lynch!

And with that, the town has decided to lynch No Lynch...

No Lynch, Arsonist, Lynched and Lost Day 4

...but, wait, the game would be messed up if No Lynch actually died. Um...
Let's reincarnate him/her/it!

No Lynch has reincarnated. (Revived with a new role and possibly new team.)

Night 4 has fallen. Actions are due Monday, June 28, 2010 at 1:00:00 PM (Los Angeles time).

[KittyMo]

At the end of the day, no corpses were to be seen. Nervousness was all around. Night came again.

And again, he moved.
He already knew what to do.

Excedrin, Vanilla Townie, Killed Night 4

The Vote Count has been cleared.

With

3

alive, it's

2

to lynch!

Deadline is at Monday, July 19, 2010 at 1:00:00 PM (Los Angeles time).

This is the final showdown! Good luck, everyone. =]

[Zachrulez]

For what it's worth I protected Kagelord, which was randomly chosen out of the 4 possible choices I could have done as I had not read the game yet, and did not read the game over night. (In case I died.)

Now... the game still needs reading and I'm off to do that.

[Exilon]

You didn't read the game during the night? << If you were indeed the doc why would you random protect going into Lylo? <<
Kagelord: Why didn't you give Zach time to read the thread and hammer immediatly?

[Zachrulez]

You didn't read the game during the night? << If you were indeed the doc why would you random protect going into Lylo? <<
Kagelord: Why didn't you give Zach time to read the thread and hammer immediatly?

In this situation, either I was going to die, someone else was going to die, or no one was going to die either as a result of a successful protect, or because of another mafia no kill. In the no kill scenario, there's no way to know whether it was a successful protect of a no kill anyway... so... eh.

I simply didn't think I would have enough time to make a fully informed decision of what to do with my action... which is the reason I scrutinized the hammering of no lynch as quickly as it came.

[Zachrulez]

Also as a side confession, I've historically played the doctor role very poorly... so that may have had some influence too...

[KageLord]

You didn't read the game during the night? << If you were indeed the doc why would you random protect going into Lylo? <<
Kagelord: Why didn't you give Zach time to read the thread and hammer immediatly?

Simply because I didn't realize that he hadn't read it already. I should have considered that, but the possibility completely slipped my mind. I didn't realize it until after Zach posted, but of course, by then it was too late. Still, even after he said it, I figured he would at least have about 4 days to read the thread (and obviously there are some clearly less important portions, as I found when I first entered). It was my mistake to hammer, but don't mistake that for scumminess.

Honestly, I am still leaning toward Zach anyway. It all makes sense if it was an early fakeclaim by Red Star that Damien tried to get out of. When Damien realized that he might just make himself more suspicious by renouncing the claim, he reclaimed. This is hypothetical, of course, but I think it's possible. I've been suspicious of that spot for the entire game and my suspicions have never really been cleared.

Now, with that said, there is still some (notably less) suspicion for me on Exilon just because skerterg and Excedrin suspected him so strongly. Obviously this is not enough to warrant any action, but the thought is still there. Also the fact that if I was in Exilon's position last turn and he/I was scum, I would have killed Excedrin too. Killing me there would leave Excedrin, who would be likely to suspect Exilon, as he had earlier, and Zach, who would essentially be an unpredictable force. Killing Zach would again leave Excedrin, but this time it would also leave me, and I think I had expressed before that I suspected Excedrin less than Exilon, so he would be at a disadvantage already. But, there is a bit too much WIFOM involved in that thinking, so that is why the suspicion on Exilon from me is minuscule.

[Zachrulez]

Just finished reading day 1.

Do you really think that the answer to this game is Razorback/me after what happened on day 1?

[Zachrulez]

Getting off work now. I'll be back later with more.

[Zachrulez]

While I'm reading, if one of you wants to lay out reasoning that you find convincing for why this playerslot is scum, I will attempt to address it to the best of my ability. (Keep in mind that I can't defend myself from the point of my continued survival because that is something I have no control over regardless of what my ultimate alignment is.)

[Zachrulez]

EBWOP *Regardless of what my alignment ultimately is.

The original wording is a bit weird.

[Zachrulez]

Hello all. Glad to see I replaced into a game with a town that has a chance this time. My first game was... not ideal to put it lightly.

Anywaaaaaaay... I read through the posts so far and to tell you the truth, I can't think of much that hasn't already been said. Though I don't have much experience with it, Red Star's survival really does seem like a WIFOM. The only thing that makes me suspicious of him though is his asking who the cop was. It's obvious what the scum would have to gain from the cop being revealed (if there even is one), but the gains to the town seem minuscule in comparison. If the remaining scum is a Roleblocker, he would basically have control over the PRs. If he's not, he would be less safe, but he would then probably take out Red Star then the cop (unless he wants to play an increasingly risky WIFOM). If there is a cop, he does well to stay hidden. If there isn't one... well the scum probably has a very strong guess about that already doesn't he? But, that's definitely not enough to FoS Red Star since I'm sure he could give a satisfactory explanation for why he asked.

Other than that, I have no strong hints that haven't been said. Though I would like other people to give opinions since the last few long posts have all been Excedrin and Exilon.

I'm going to logically explain why Red Star scum is impossible under this line of suspicion that was thrown his way.

There are 4 possible game setups in play.

Setup 1.

1 roleblocker, 1 goon, 1 cop, 1 doc, 5 townies. (Redstar scum loses immediately on d2 if this setup is true)

Setup 2.

2 goons, 1 cop, 6 townies (At the time cop fishing would make sense for Red Star Scum, however this setup possibility was eliminated by massclaim.)

Setup 3.

2 goons, 1 doctor, 6 townies (Redstar scum again loses immediately on D2 if this setup is true.)

Setup 4.

1 roleblocker, 1 goon, 7 townies (Fear of cop+doc setup is invalid as a scumtell because Redstar scum would lose immediately if that setup was true regardless of whether or not he discovered the identity of the cop.)

From the vanilla townie perspective, only the bottom two setups can be true at this point. Red Star scum automatically loses if setup 3 is true, and only has a hope for victory if setup 4 is true. (Since we already know setup 2 cannot be true, there's nothing for him to gain as scum by rolefishing for a cop.)

[Zachrulez]

Simply because I didn't realize that he hadn't read it already. I should have considered that, but the possibility completely slipped my mind. I didn't realize it until after Zach posted, but of course, by then it was too late. Still, even after he said it, I figured he would at least have about 4 days to read the thread (and obviously there are some clearly less important portions, as I found when I first entered). It was my mistake to hammer, but don't mistake that for scumminess.

I had just replaced in the day before. Do you think I could have read a 25 page game that quickly?

Honestly, I am still leaning toward Zach anyway. It all makes sense if it was an early fakeclaim by Red Star that Damien tried to get out of. When Damien realized that he might just make himself more suspicious by renouncing the claim, he reclaimed. This is hypothetical, of course, but I think it's possible. I've been suspicious of that spot for the entire game and my suspicions have never really been cleared.

I'm failing to see the scum motivation for what Damien did. I don't buy that any player with relative conscousness wouldn't realize the amount of scrutiny that renouncing a claim would garner, thus I think the action is much more likely to come from town than scum. Last thing scum wants is more attention.

Now, with that said, there is still some (notably less) suspicion for me on Exilon just because skerterg and Excedrin suspected him so strongly. Obviously this is not enough to warrant any action, but the thought is still there. Also the fact that if I was in Exilon's position last turn and he/I was scum, I would have killed Excedrin too. Killing me there would leave Excedrin, who would be likely to suspect Exilon, as he had earlier, and Zach, who would essentially be an unpredictable force. Killing Zach would again leave Excedrin, but this time it would also leave me, and I think I had expressed before that I suspected Excedrin less than Exilon, so he would be at a disadvantage already. But, there is a bit too much WIFOM involved in that thinking, so that is why the suspicion on Exilon from me is minuscule.

Nothing you've said here convinces me that you should be less suspicious of Exilon in this situation. It gives me a buddying feel.

[Exilon]

Setup 4. 1 roleblocker, 1 goon, 7 townies

(Fear of cop+doc setup is invalid as a scumtell because Redstar scum would lose immediately if that setup was true regardless of whether or not he discovered the identity of the cop.)

From the vanilla townie perspective, only the bottom two setups can be true at this point. Red Star scum automatically loses if setup 3 is true, and only has a hope for victory if setup 4 is true. (Since we already know setup 2 cannot be true, there's nothing for him to gain as scum by rolefishing for a cop.)

If possible, I'd like you to please explain this a bit better. More specifically the bolded part - what does it have to do with Setup 4? One possibility that came to me to what you said (rolefishing for a cop is invalid) is that, like Damien, he could make a "role correction" and say he was actually a Vanilla Townie and that he pretended to be the doctor to net the kill on a 'scummy' player. So, even if the conditions on which the claim was done are overly incompatible with Red Star-scum, the overall scummy actions of both slot's players aren't really helping. For now, zach, would you finish reading the other days and telling us who you think is scum, (And is not scum) and why? Then we can work from there.

[Zachrulez]

Setup 4. 1 roleblocker, 1 goon, 7 townies

(Fear of cop+doc setup is invalid as a scumtell because Redstar scum would lose immediately if that setup was true regardless of whether or not he discovered the identity of the cop.)

From the vanilla townie perspective, only the bottom two setups can be true at this point. Red Star scum automatically loses if setup 3 is true, and only has a hope for victory if setup 4 is true. (Since we already know setup 2 cannot be true, there's nothing for him to gain as scum by rolefishing for a cop.)

If possible, I'd like you to please explain this a bit better. More specifically the bolded part - what does it have to do with Setup 4? One possibility that came to me to what you said (rolefishing for a cop is invalid) is that, like Damien, he could make a "role correction" and say he was actually a Vanilla Townie and that he pretended to be the doctor to net the kill on a 'scummy' player. So, even if the conditions on which the claim was done are overly incompatible with Red Star-scum, the overall scummy actions of both slot's players aren't really helping. For now, zach, would you finish reading the other days and telling us who you think is scum, (And is not scum) and why? Then we can work from there.

Either I'm the doctor or I am a roleblocker. The validity of the tell of searching for a cop whilst being a claimed doctor has no validity, because a cop can't be in the game without a doctor. If there's a cop in the game and I'm not the doctor, a doctor counterclaim gets this player slot lynched outright on day 2.

Also, I have read the game, and am leaning toward Kagelord being scum. Partly gut, and partly observation of the fact that he seems to be fueling the WIFOM side of the argument toward this slot being scum more in later days.

[Zachrulez]

Also in addition to the above, I think scum would have filed Razor as useless and made sure they were on his wagon. Your indecisiveness toward lynching him is something I might expect to be more consistent with the position of an uncertain townie.

Nonetheless, when I get time I want to have another look through both your day 1 interactions with Razorback.

[KageLord]

Either I'm the doctor or I am a roleblocker. The validity of the tell of searching for a cop whilst being a claimed doctor has no validity, because a cop can't be in the game without a doctor. If there's a cop in the game and I'm not the doctor, a doctor counterclaim gets this player slot lynched outright on day 2.

Okay, I might be misinterpreting what you're saying, but I'll give it a shot. You're saying that searching for a cop isn't a tell because you're either a doctor or a roleblocker. We know now that you are one of those two. But, back when Red Star asked about the cop, he could have been a goon, roleblocker, or doctor (or cop or VT, but that's just weird). If he was the doctor, the only logical explanation for me for why he would ask about the cop would be that he was not thinking straight (kinda lame excuse, but it's the best I can come up with for him). If he was the goon (which we now know he wasn't), he would know that there had to be a cop (since no one counterclaimed and the only setups with two goons have either a doc or a cop) and he was fishing. If he was the roleblocker, he would know that there's either a cop and a doc or neither. Since he wasn't counterclaimed, he would know that there were neither. Unfortunately... this still doesn't help find out why he would ask for a cop. Maybe by asking he thought he would make people think that there was only a doctor and goon, meaning he could be priceless to town (as opposed to doc, cop, and RB where he would now be pretty much worthless to town)? Either way... I can make neither heads nor tails of his action.

Also, I have read the game, and am leaning toward Kagelord being scum. Partly gut, and partly observation of the fact that he seems to be fueling the WIFOM side of the argument toward this slot being scum more in later days.

I admit that part of my reasoning against your slot could be WIFOM. But, it seemed less and less to be the case as time went by. Now, from my point of view (and Exilon's, if he's VT as well), there are two possible scenarios happening:

1. Zach is RB and Exilon is VT.
2. Zach is doctor and Exilon is goon.

In scenario 1, it's obvious why my suspicion is justified. In scenario 2, the doctor slot has just been ___ out of luck all game and the goon has been playing very very risky. I say the doctor's been out of luck because he hasn't gotten one save yet, which would have confirmed his position and that of one other person. That leads me to the "very very risky" comment about the goon. Leaving the doctor alive on night 1 leaves the door open for us to lynch him day 2 and save him some time. The same sort of applies for night 2. But by now I would think that the goon would realize that we weren't going to lynch him and just NK him. Every night that the doctor stays alive is another night that he might save someone and confirm a townie. If that had happened at some earlier stage of the game, we would have a huge advantage.

Also note that the one night that scum no-kills, the doctor forfeited protection. Lucky coincidence, huh?

[Zachrulez]

Either I'm the doctor or I am a roleblocker. The validity of the tell of searching for a cop whilst being a claimed doctor has no validity, because a cop can't be in the game without a doctor. If there's a cop in the game and I'm not the doctor, a doctor counterclaim gets this player slot lynched outright on day 2.

Okay, I might be misinterpreting what you're saying, but I'll give it a shot. You're saying that searching for a cop isn't a tell because you're either a doctor or a roleblocker. We know now that you are one of those two. But, back when Red Star asked about the cop, he could have been a goon, roleblocker, or doctor (or cop or VT, but that's just weird). If he was the doctor, the only logical explanation for me for why he would ask about the cop would be that he was not thinking straight (kinda lame excuse, but it's the best I can come up with for him). If he was the goon (which we now know he wasn't), he would know that there had to be a cop (since no one counterclaimed and the only setups with two goons have either a doc or a cop) and he was fishing. If he was the roleblocker, he would know that there's either a cop and a doc or neither. Since he wasn't counterclaimed, he would know that there were neither. Unfortunately... this still doesn't help find out why he would ask for a cop. Maybe by asking he thought he would make people think that there was only a doctor and goon, meaning he could be priceless to town (as opposed to doc, cop, and RB where he would now be pretty much worthless to town)? Either way... I can make neither heads nor tails of his action.

It's not that difficult to comprehend. With the setup possibilities we're facing, there's NO scum motivation for the tell you're trying to accuse this slot of. The only setup possibility where there would be a scum motivation for the copfishing you've accused this slot of would be the cop only setup, which has been established to be impossible to be true. (I'm saying that the scumtell being applied makes no sense here because there's no scum motivation for the setup possibilities that would have to be true.) It's not hard to realize this when you realize the knowledge that hypo-scum me would possess by simply knowing what my role is.

As for the inability to explain why he asked for a cop, the lack of an explanation for an action doesn't necessarily make the action scummy. That seems to be what you are trying to do here. It's very possible that Red Star incorrectly thought he saw a pro-town benefit to the cop claiming that he couldn't properly explain to the town because his logic for it was flawed. I've already explained that the scum motivation for the rolefishing accusation is missing... so why are you seemingly unable to consider that it was just a townie mistake? How does that lack of being able to explain it make it scummy by default?

Also, I have read the game, and am leaning toward Kagelord being scum. Partly gut, and partly observation of the fact that he seems to be fueling the WIFOM side of the argument toward this slot being scum more in later days.

I admit that part of my reasoning against your slot could be WIFOM. But, it seemed less and less to be the case as time went by. Now, from my point of view (and Exilon's, if he's VT as well), there are two possible scenarios happening:

1. Zach is RB and Exilon is VT.
2. Zach is doctor and Exilon is goon.

In scenario 1, it's obvious why my suspicion is justified. In scenario 2, the doctor slot has just been ___ out of luck all game and the goon has been playing very very risky. I say the doctor's been out of luck because he hasn't gotten one save yet, which would have confirmed his position and that of one other person. That leads me to the "very very risky" comment about the goon. Leaving the doctor alive on night 1 leaves the door open for us to lynch him day 2 and save him some time. The same sort of applies for night 2. But by now I would think that the goon would realize that we weren't going to lynch him and just NK him. Every night that the doctor stays alive is another night that he might save someone and confirm a townie. If that had happened at some earlier stage of the game, we would have a huge advantage.

Also note that the one night that scum no-kills, the doctor forfeited protection. Lucky coincidence, huh?

See, you're using my survival to this point against me. You're also making light of how difficult it actually is to successfully get a doc protection. You're also stating things as fact that simply aren't true. Once you get this late in the game, doc protects don't clear anything. The sequence of events from the night 3 phase prove that. A scum no kill and the doctor protecting scum on night 3 could have led to a situation where the doctor "cleared" the scum under false pretenses, the assumption that a kill was prevented. Late in the game, these mechanics prevent the doctor from being certain of anything. (The strategy could very well have been for the scum to hope that the doctor attempted to protect them and then "cleared" them, as Damien, being a newbie may not have even realized the possibility of a no kill.)

Lack of doc saves don't make me scummy. It's more WIFOM, just like the argument that I am scum simply because I am not dead. (The actions of my predecessors are relevant to scumhunting and inquires and are admissable. This is what you should be using in addition to my own actions to try to determine my alignment.)

Finally, you cast doubt on this slot being the doctor as a lucky coincidence because of the forfeited action coinciding with the scum no kill. I don't see why it's inconceivable to believe that Damien flaked over night and never actually got an action in to the mod. (He never posted the following day.) I also don't see how what actually happened was confusing or detrimental to the town, as if I actually had any action to claim, it would create WIFOM over whether the scum actually tried to kill that player or not. By having a player that flaked and having no action for night 3, it actually put me in a strange position to be able to give the town certain information that the scum had indeed no killed. If I was scum, why would I give the town this information? (Consider that I could just kill the player I claimed a protection on the next night should the town no lynch, and would be no worse of in lylo than I would have been in mylo if I was scum.)

[KageLord]

It's not that difficult to comprehend. With the setup possibilities we're facing, there's NO scum motivation for the tell you're trying to accuse this slot of. The only setup possibility where there would be a scum motivation for the copfishing you've accused this slot of would be the cop only setup, which has been established to be impossible to be true. (I'm saying that the scumtell being applied makes no sense here because there's no scum motivation for the setup possibilities that would have to be true.) It's not hard to realize this when you realize the knowledge that hypo-scum me would possess by simply knowing what my role is.

As for the inability to explain why he asked for a cop, the lack of an explanation for an action doesn't necessarily make the action scummy. That seems to be what you are trying to do here. It's very possible that Red Star incorrectly thought he saw a pro-town benefit to the cop claiming that he couldn't properly explain to the town because his logic for it was flawed. I've already explained that the scum motivation for the rolefishing accusation is missing... so why are you seemingly unable to consider that it was just a townie mistake?

How does that lack of being able to explain it make it scummy by default?

It doesn't. That's kind of what I was trying to say with that last post. It could be either a scum mistake or a town mistake. Either way, I was saying that it was incomprehensible to me as to whether it was scum or town, ergo it's not a tell we can use for either argument.

I admit that part of my reasoning against your slot could be WIFOM. But, it seemed less and less to be the case as time went by. Now, from my point of view (and Exilon's, if he's VT as well), there are two possible scenarios happening:

1. Zach is RB and Exilon is VT.
2. Zach is doctor and Exilon is goon.

In scenario 1, it's obvious why my suspicion is justified. In scenario 2, the doctor slot has just been ___ out of luck all game and the goon has been playing very very risky. I say the doctor's been out of luck because he hasn't gotten one save yet, which would have confirmed his position and that of one other person. That leads me to the "very very risky" comment about the goon. Leaving the doctor alive on night 1 leaves the door open for us to lynch him day 2 and save him some time. The same sort of applies for night 2. But by now I would think that the goon would realize that we weren't going to lynch him and just NK him. Every night that the doctor stays alive is another night that he might save someone and confirm a townie. If that had happened at some earlier stage of the game, we would have a huge advantage.

Also note that the one night that scum no-kills, the doctor forfeited protection. Lucky coincidence, huh?

See, you're using my survival to this point against me. You're also making light of how difficult it actually is to successfully get a doc protection. You're also stating things as fact that simply aren't true. Once you get this late in the game, doc protects don't clear anything. The sequence of events from the night 3 phase prove that. A scum no kill and the doctor protecting scum on night 3 could have led to a situation where the doctor "cleared" the scum under false pretenses, the assumption that a kill was prevented. Late in the game, these mechanics prevent the doctor from being certain of anything. (The strategy could very well have been for the scum to hope that the doctor attempted to protect them and then "cleared" them, as Damien, being a newbie may not have even realized the possibility of a no kill.)

Lack of doc saves don't make me scummy. It's more WIFOM, just like the argument that I am scum simply because I am not dead. (The actions of my predecessors are relevant to scumhunting and inquires and are admissable. This is what you should be using in addition to my own actions to try to determine my alignment.)

Finally, you cast doubt on this slot being the doctor as a lucky coincidence because of the forfeited action coinciding with the scum no kill. I don't see why it's inconceivable to believe that Damien flaked over night and never actually got an action in to the mod. (He never posted the following day.) I also don't see how what actually happened was confusing or detrimental to the town, as if I actually had any action to claim, it would create WIFOM over whether the scum actually tried to kill that player or not. By having a player that flaked and having no action for night 3, it actually put me in a strange position to be able to give the town certain information that the scum had indeed no killed. If I was scum, why would I give the town this information? (Consider that I could just kill the player I claimed a protection on the next night should the town no lynch, and would be no worse of in lylo than I would have been in mylo if I was scum.)

Hm... that first part is intriguing.

Mod: Would we be informed (by flavor text or otherwise) if something was a doctor protection as opposed to a no-kill?

For the last part, I wasn't implying that Damien flaking was inconceivable. I was more implying that it is

possible

that the reason there was a no-kill was because Damien flaked (as Excedrin asked before, night actions altogether could have been forfeited because night timed out). Of the two options (Damien being scum and flaking or Exilon no-killing and Damien flaking), the one where only Damien flakes seems more likely. It's just a minor point though, since the other option is still possible.

[Exilon]

I'm a little busy right now, so I can't post but I will do so as soon as possible, just passing by to say that. Sorry, but keep going.
Also, let me say this since I want to see your answers on this: I think Zach is scum. Discuss.

[Zachrulez]

I'm a little busy right now, so I can't post but I will do so as soon as possible, just passing by to say that. Sorry, but keep going.
Also, let me say this since I want to see your answers on this: I think Zach is scum. Discuss.

Would be nice if you explained why.

You are wrong btw.