Minvitational 4 - The Mystery of the Milan Murders: Resolved

[Phoebus]

Apologies.
Exam week. There will be a slight delay.

[Phoebus]

DP started out from his clinic with a sense of resignation about him.
He could sense that he was just going through the motions and so, he did not even feel shocked or surprised as he suddenly grew an arrow on his chest.
Well actually, it was the crossbow shaft, fired from behind him that went clean through him something like this:

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Dragon Doc has been x-bow'ed.

It is day 4. 4 alive, 3 to lynch

[mathcam]

Alright, well I know who

my

top suspicion is, but we should discuss the benefits of no lynch. Assuming for a second that MeMe and Corsato are totally cleared, then if we no lynch, all we're doing is losing one contributor to the thought process. We still have to make the right lynch, we just have one fewer person to do it with. On the other hand, if there's even the slightest suspicion that one of the two may be guilty, then maybe no lynching and seeing who wakes up in the morning will help identify that person. Even then, this seems like a stretch.

Plus

there's always the (perhaps small) possibility that, say, oncer per game, the scum group gets to kill twice in one night or something. So, even though in general the correct strategy is probably to no lynch, I would say that with 2 mostly-confirmed innocents and still some major ambiguity about what roles are around, it wouldn't be of much gain, and might prove disasterous.

That said, I need to go back and make sure that MeMe and Corsato are cleared before voting for Cadmium.

Cam

[Cadmium]

Don't bother, mathcam. MeMe is innocent.

As soon as you guys are finished discussing the no lynch (which won't benefit us one bit), my vote goes to you.

[mathcam]

Let me get this straight: You're convinced no lynch won't help us a bit (which I feel like I also stated in my first post), but you're going to wait for

us

to finish the discussion before voting me? And if you're so sure, why not vote me now? Just because you don't want to look too eager?

And why the hell wouldn't I bother making sure? I know there are strong arguments in favor of both (as I see them, MeMe fingering multiple scum and Corsato being the person that DS was probably backing up), and I'm not arguing with them. I can't believe that a townie Cadmium would be so quick to discount all other possibilities.

Cam

[MeMe]

Let's wait for Corsato -- godfathers don't

always

have investigation immunity.

[Cadmium]

Let me get this straight: You're convinced no lynch won't help us a bit (which I feel like I also stated in my first post), but you're going to wait for us to finish the discussion before voting me? And if you're so sure, why not vote me now? Just because you don't want to look too eager?

You mean like you did in that first post of yours today ? This is just hilarious.

And why the hell wouldn't I bother making sure? I know there are strong arguments in favor of both (as I see them, MeMe fingering multiple scum and Corsato being the person that DS was probably backing up), and I'm not arguing with them. I can't believe that a townie Cadmium would be so quick to discount all other possibilities.

My, aren't we defensive! Unless the mods put my role in this game without a normal cop, you are the only posibility of being the last scum. I don't have to chitchat with the town to make myself look like a townie who wants to go over everything one more time. I think I was pretty clear yesterday. If MeMe went out, she's mafia and else you're mafia. Why do I need to discuss anything?

[mathcam]

You mean like you did in that first post of yours today? This is just hilarious.

Nooo...in my post, I said I would reread and would probably end up voting for you. Your post said (obnoxiously paraphrasing) "I'm sure mathcam is scum, but for some mysterious reason I won't vote for him." There's a fairly obvious difference there.

Why do I need to discuss anything?

Well, if you actually

were

town, you'd realize that no one else could know for sure whether or not you're lying, so the quoted has a pretty easy answer: To convince everyone else. Instead, you come out with an "investigation" of MeMe and you think that this bogus claim, which I'm now relatively positive you made up,

proves

you're innocent and I'm scum? Hardly.

Man is it going to be frustrating if I get lynched today. Just waiting on Corsato now.

Cam

[Corsato]

It's nice you've been waiting for me.

I've checked Cadmium last night. He's innocent. I haven't investigated anyone else (of the remaining living players).

From my point of view it would be best to have a no lynch. It would give me the oppertunity to check either Mathcam or meme. However, I would probably get killed tonight (either to prevent the investigation or the frame the other player). So that would leave you tomorrow with the same information. It would only be postponing the inevitable. We should make up our minds today.

I'm pretty sure Meme is innocent (btw, she would deserve to win if scum ). That leaves Cadmium and mathcam as the two remaining lynching candidates. I'm not sure what to do next, I guess I'm going to to re-read the last couple of pages. I'll be back (promised).

[MeMe]

Well, here's how we stand:

Cadmium: innocent (per Corsato's investigation)
Corsato: likely innocent (per DS's role)
mathcam: innocent (per MeMe's investigation)
MeMe: innocent (per Cadmium's investigation)

I think it's pretty safe to say that the godfather has investigation protection.

[mathcam]

Yeah, I think it's safe for me to now

Vote: Cadmium

.

Cadmium's full of it, though I'm afraid I'm at a loss for killer evdience: MeMe had two good points yesterday, that Cadmium was a pusher of the "lynch the masons" plan (what could be better for scum than a couple of days or worry-free lynches?) and that he was on neither scum bandwagon (in his list of 3 scum, Yaw was 3rd choice...1st and 2nd were Corsato and DS).

In addition, looking back, I find it fairly incriminating that Cadmium unvoted me and voted for DS. His given argument was based on the fact that DS had misinterpreted something that Cadmium had said. This was a rather abrupt change from his previously-single-tracked "Lynch MeMe or mathcam" approach. In hindsight, it now seems pretty clear that Cadmium would have much preferred DS lynched than me, because a) I would be easier to get lynched the next day, and b) my role sucks, and can really only serve to incriminate me, whereas DS might get lucky and stop a night kill once DP was dead.

Cam

[MeMe]

OK - let me tell a little story about mathcam. I went over the thread and realized that the day before jeep died, he was pretty adamant about mathcam being the godfather. Now, as irritated as I get with jeep's non-substantiated declarations, I gotta admit that the guy is about the most accurate mafia hunter I've ever seen. So - I decided to try to set a little trap for mathcam.

Here's what I did (remember, we're masons, so we can PM at night):

Paraphrase

Me

: Did you just try to recruit me?

Cam

: No.

Me

: Should I allow myself to be recruited?

Cam

: It's the right play for you because it's probably an attempt from the remaining bad guy & you'll be fairly unbeatable if you join him. But boo on you for being a deserter if you do!

Me

: You passed my test. There was no recruitment attempt.

Though not conclusive, I thought his comments made him more likely to be town. If he were the remaining scum and he thought I were being recruited, he'd have to assume it was a pro-town player doing the recruiting...so counseling me to accept would be certain doom for him. Of course, it can be argued that if he's good he

still

counseled me in a way that he thought might result in a loss for him -- but I expect a scum trying to beat the remaining players by himself would be scrapping a bit more...he could have easily appealed to my sense of pro-town duty with "don't go to the dark side" or the like.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Now, I'm pretty sure Corsato's got to be the cop DS was backing up...but I'm a trifle concerned about accepting that at face value as he's lurked through much of the game (a total of 24 posts) and was absent for yesterday's crucial discussion, even though he checked in to tell us he was "around" on October 7th...but neglected to post for the rest of the game day, which lasted another week.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Cadmium's still the one I believe most likely to be scum. But I'm by no means convinced. It could oh-so-easily be any of the three of you.

[mathcam]

We could, if we were careful, have you investigate Corsato today, right? Find some time when Cadmium's never on, have you and me vote, and then quickly unvote. Or you could investigate Cadmium, for that matter. I can't remember who you've investigated except for me and DS.

Cam

[MeMe]

Nope.

Although I will lose my ability once I claim its name/mechanics, I think it's worth it at this point.

[mathcam]

Ah, right.

Cam

[Cadmium]

Nooo...in my post, I said I would reread and would probably end up voting for you. Your post said (obnoxiously paraphrasing) "I'm sure mathcam is scum, but for some mysterious reason I won't vote for him." There's a fairly obvious difference there.

Well, if you can obnoxiously paraphrase my post, allow me to do the same. Your post said "I'm sure Cadmium is scum but for some mysterious reason I think a reread should clear MeMe and Corsato". What could you possibly find that confirms MeMe and Corsato to be innocent when all other players didn't find anything yesterday? Were there some mysterious posts added during night?

So yeah, there's a difference. I'm simply coming right out that I'll wait with voting. You, for some reason, try to cover that up with an excuse that actually doesn't make much sense.

And while we're on the matter of rereading. You voted for me, so we can assume that you reread the thread. Now let me get this straight. While rereading to make sure MeMe and Corsato are innocent, you missed MeMe's comment that her role would be useless after claiming? I don't believe you did a reread.

Well, if you actually were town, you'd realize that no one else could know for sure whether or not you're lying, so the quoted has a pretty easy answer: To convince everyone else. Instead, you come out with an "investigation" of MeMe and you think that this bogus claim, which I'm now relatively positive you made up, proves you're innocent and I'm scum? Hardly.

Hello! Were you asleep yesterday? Everyone agreed that I'm the most suspicious. Of course I realize that noone knows for sure that I'm telling the truth. Corsato reminded me of that yesterday and I explained that if a vote works for me (you can't change the fact that

I

know I'm innocent), I'll vote that way. I explained the same thing again today. And I never claimed that my investigation clears me, that's just another fable made up by you.

As for the convincing everyone else part, if you keep posting like this, you might do the job for me yourself.

Vote: mathcam

[MeMe]

~sobs~

[mathcam]

What could you possibly find that confirms MeMe and Corsato to be innocent when all other players didn't find anything yesterday?

This is the second time you've taken the stance of "Why bother looking through old posts?" I understand that you believe, or rather claim to believe, that this is a huge facade that I'm putting on, but from my perspective, I don't see how it hurts to check it just one more time.

I don't believe you did a reread.

Well, I reread your, MeMe's, and Corsato's posts. I just missed that, I guess. And so what? It's not like that this could be some elaborate bluff where everyone knows that the mafia can't do a full reread and I claimed that I did so that this supported my innocence. Missing a post is exactly as likely (in fact, likely) for a pro-town mathcam as for a scum mathcam.

Is there any chance DS could've been a back-up pro-town doc backing up scum cop Corsato? I mean, if we're going to put a scum in a mason group, it's not too much of a stretch to think that the cop could be scum. Sure it wouldn't do the scum team much good (he'd only be looking for the SK) but having a semi-confirmable innocent is a pretty strong plus (if it

is

the case, look how far it's gotten him today). He

did

only claim to get innocent results,

and

he's the only one of us who hasn't been investigated.

Cam

[Corsato]

Well, here's how we stand:

Cadmium: innocent (per Corsato's investigation)
Corsato: likely innocent (per DS's role)
mathcam: innocent (per MeMe's investigation)
MeMe: innocent (per Cadmium's investigation)

I think it's pretty safe to say that the godfather has investigation protection.

So we really know nothing? Three players are cleared by players who either aren't confirmed or whose investigations can not be trusted. And I agree on the godfather thing, seeing the amount of cops and docs, there must be a gf.

Is there any chance DS could've been a back-up pro-town doc backing up scum cop Corsato?

Though it's not the case, it could be possible I guess.

Cadmium pushing the lynching of the masons is the most suspicious thing I can find. But it's just not enough for a vote.

[Cadmium]

From my point of view, the only way MeMe could be mafia is that even a tracker role gets a negative result upon investigation of the Godfather. I find this very unlikely. Also, since I "cleared" her, you do have extra info, even if my claim can't be verified. Unless you believe there are two mafia members left, my investigation did clear her. If I'm lying about the investigation, I'm mafia and she's cleared. If I'm not lying about the investigation, she's cleared too.

There are two things about Corsato that seem a little strange. One thing is that my role wasn't called tracker or lassie or whatever, but "cop (well, kinda)". This might indicate that there is no normal cop in the game. The second thing is the investigation of last night. I don't understand why he investigated me last night. I think the most logical thing for him to do was investigating me the second night. After all, I was the one that went after him the first day. If that would have happened to me and I would have been a cop, I would definitely have investigated that person.

But other than that, I'm still convinced that the last scum is in the mason (me pushing for that may have been suspicious, Corsato, but it also shows that I truly belief in that. I never followed other theories, with the exception of DS since I couldn't get anyone else convinced). Mathcam is the only person in the game that claimed a role that does something without him having control of it. It's the odd role out. And if the last mafia is not in the mason, the game balance seems way more off to me than when he is (with at least two investigative roles, a backup role, a doc, a one-time night saviour, a vigilante and a blocker on the town's side).

[Corsato]

One thing is that my role wasn't called tracker or lassie or whatever, but "cop (well, kinda)". This might indicate that there is no normal cop in the game.

Well, if you are "kinda a cop" , why couldn't I be a "Cop"??

I always investigate the player I'm most suspicious about. At that moment you were not at the top of my list.

me pushing for that may have been suspicious, Corsato, but it also shows that I truly belief in that. I never followed other theories, with the exception of DS since I couldn't get anyone else convinced

It's good play for scum to follow one theory and stick to that. If you switch theory's all the time you get unwanted attention.

[mathcam]

I agree that MeMe's the only one that's essentially confirmed.

I think Corsato's

Though it's not the case, it could be possible I guess.

was probably the best answer he could have given from my point of view. Arguing that my suggestion was ridiculous and there's no way it could have happened probably would have raised an eyebrow or two. Also, if he

were

scum, it would have been a good point to throw a vote or FOS on me to focus attention toward me and off of him.

As to the balance point, I think the existence of my role is more of a balancing point, regardless of whether or not I was a mason. Assuming for the second that Corsato's not scum, the one of me or Cad is scum and the other is the role he claimed. Cad's role is yet another investigation role on top of Corsato and MeMe and the backup DS, already a ton of investigating on the power of the town. My role (and that of the mafia godfather) reduce this group's power by providing it with possibilites of mistruths. So in terms of balance we're choosing between me telling the truth, 3 investigators and 2 messer-uppers, or Cadmium telling the truth, 4 investigators and 1 messer-upper. While we're at it, if Corsato's scum, we also have 3 weaker investigators and 2 messer-uppers.

Cam

[Corsato]

I really don't have a lot to add. Reading back has made no difference. I can't find any solid leads. Based on the information we have so far, I think Cadmium's the way to go today.

[MeMe]

I guess I'll be voting for Cadmium.

[mathcam]

Good.

I think.

Cam