Mafia 81: SSW II - Game over!

[farside22]

Okay, all power roles need to check in, and I can think of at least one reason BM might have failed (Mafia Roleblocker framing him up for today).

That said, I need to re-read with grimmy as 'town'.

It was either to make BM look scummie or Spraxy since he is the one who suggested it. Maybe (yes I know WIFOM) he suggested it because he could RB it and make BM look guilty.

Clean Slate vote count of the Day

(6 players alive = 4 to lynch before deadline)

Not voting:

OhGodmyLife, Jenter Brolincani, Mr. Flay, farside22, SpyreX, Battle Mage

Deadline:

Tuesday 24 June 2:00 AM (GMT -5 according to forum clock)

[Jenter Brolincani]

Damn.

I killled muffin as per da plan.

We have no scumkill last night, interesting.

[Battle Mage]

Okay, all power roles need to check in, and I can think of at least one reason BM might have failed (Mafia Roleblocker framing him up for today).

That said, I need to re-read with grimmy as 'town'.

It was either to make BM look scummie or Spraxy since he is the one who suggested it. Maybe (yes I know WIFOM) he suggested it because he could RB it and make BM look guilty.

Clean Slate vote count of the Day

(6 players alive = 4 to lynch before deadline)

Not voting:

OhGodmyLife, Jenter Brolincani, Mr. Flay, farside22, SpyreX, Battle Mage

Deadline:

Tuesday 24 June 2:00 AM (GMT -5 according to forum clock)

Flay makes a good point. A mafia RB would explain the lack of scum-NK too- if we only have 1 scum left. I've pmed the Mod about the lack of NK, in order to see if i still have my 1 shot or not.

At this point, i can pretty well understand being lynched today. Sadly that still leaves us with 2 dubious players, and LyLo. To that end, it'd be good if OGML can try and confirm himself today, as he pushed Spyrex's plan as much as Spyrex himself, and fits the criteria given by Farside above.

BM

[farside22]

Well OGML probably won't be able to answer this RL today. I would like to here everyone's thoughts about everyone at this point.

[Mr. Flay]

Not a thought on everyone, but this:

We have no scumkill last night, interesting.

is consistent with a Mafia Roleblocker who must give up their kill to block. Or some town-blocker got lucky... we'll know more once everyone checks in.

How do you figure we're at LyLo, BM? 6 left and probably 1 scum (due to above) means we should be able to take care of both scummy suspects before we're in dire danger.

[farside22]

Not a thought on everyone, but this:

We have no scumkill last night, interesting.

is consistent with a Mafia Roleblocker who must give up their kill to block. Or some town-blocker got lucky... we'll know more once everyone checks in.

How do you figure we're at LyLo, BM? 6 left and probably 1 scum (due to above) means we should be able to take care of both scummy suspects before we're in dire danger.

We don't know if there is one or 2 scum left. But the giving up to RB is used in some games.

[Battle Mage]

Not a thought on everyone, but this:

We have no scumkill last night, interesting.

is consistent with a Mafia Roleblocker who must give up their kill to block. Or some town-blocker got lucky... we'll know more once everyone checks in.

How do you figure we're at LyLo, BM? 6 left and probably 1 scum (due to above) means we should be able to take care of both scummy suspects before we're in dire danger.

We don't know if there is one or 2 scum left. But the giving up to RB is used in some games.

In a game with multiple tracking roles, it would be essential.

@Mr Flay- I meant LyLo if i was lynched today, due to the lack of a kill.

BM

[SpyreX]

Well, I'd really like BM to get confirmation that he did put in his shot - is it common for someone who is roleblocked to recieve roleblock flavor?

I REALLY shouldn't be alive - and I dont like it one bit. Part of the reason I wanted to die was that because I am an unknown I did NOT want the town to waste a lynch on me...and being alive DOES make me a huge suspect.

Before I get into what I think could have happened, I hope OGML can actually hop on even for a second.

Muffin, even though you're dead. The reason why I liked my plan was that IF it went off properly we would have had the game in a basket.

As it sits, I believe we have only 1 mafia left for sure, which is good. The two scenarios that really make sense (mafia roleblocker or maf didn't get in a nightkill) would only work with 1 mafia. So, we've got some time to think this out and can make another mistake.

As for who would be mafia (in least to highest)
1.) Jenter - HIGHLY unlikely now (he'd have to be a mafia vig)
2.) Farside - VERY unlikely now (he'd have to be a mafia godfather roleblocker)
3.) OGML - VERY unlikely STILL (although possible, he'd have had to bus his recruiter AND be a roleblocker AND have had that guess on day 2 AND know that he'd be in a position where, at best, tomorrow it would be him vs flay on mylo)
4.) Flay - Semi-likely (still not sold on it; the play has been town AND there was the scum losing gambit at the beginning although it could have been a situation where the recruiter sac'd himself to make who he voted for look better)
5.) SpyreX - Likely (THIS is why I'm pissed. I'm an unknown AND my plan that got us to here did NOT take into account 1 night death - all scenarios were really based on two minimum. The only reason I am not the most likely is because I, at least, know I am town and my play has tried to reflect that)
6.) BM - Highest Chance (Reasons aside, his kill didn't come through. The mafia also didn't kill - which would make sense if his role was a lie (he couldn't kill mafia style) also, his role is the floater role when everything else has been doubles. In addition, was the largest voice against what was a solid plan AND was very absent towards the end of the day).

Thats my suspicions as of now, BUT we do need more information before we can really move ahead.

[OhGodMyLife]

Yo, greetings from a really flaky wi fi in Paris. unsurprisingly, flay did not target anybody last night.

Mafia rb or BM no killing bc it was the only way not to out himself make equal amounts of sense to me. Need to think about it.

[SpyreX]

Well, more role conjecture -

If OGML is telling the truth (which I believe) flay COULD NOT be a RB because he would have visited someone. Jenter, I hope COULD NOT have vig'd and RB'd.
I'm not sold on the Godfather Roleblocker (although it could be I guess - although didn't OG track him as well?)

So, really, its either BM or me. Now, I know its not me, but its up to you. I think we have this won (unless OG is the maf) so, town, decide which one of us dies today and which one dies tomorrow.

[SpyreX]

In fact,

Vote BM

A myslynch today isn't a loss, AND a mafia kill is going to make it more apparent who the dirty dog really is (but I am 90% sure it is BM now)

[farside22]

The internal debate. I just think because of BM's stubbornness yesterday I'm leaning towards him. I think more and more he lied about his claim hence he hesitated. However (this is me thinking out loud) wouldn't it make sense for BM to kill SpreX instead of doing a fake RB. BM killing SpreX makes things more confusing. Using that thought SpreX looks scummy.
I need more time to think.

[SpyreX]

Farside, that doesn't wokr because if he's mafia he wouldn't show vig flavor on the kill. He'd have been outed right away.

[farside22]

Farside, that doesn't wokr because if he's mafia he wouldn't show vig flavor on the kill. He'd have been outed right away.

That is true. I keep forgetting about that.
I keep thinking about this too much. OGML confirmed
Jenter confirmed. I confirm OGML because he stated I had no night action (which is true) and he had a 50/50 shot at being right. He went after zz pretty hard. So that leave Mr. Flay (who had no night activity, but that doesn't mean anything since scum could have just not performed the hit) this is on the speculation that there are two scum and one is a RB and the other a goon. Seeing SpreX and Mr.Flay. So lynching SpreX in this idea leaves me in a warm spot as if he isn't scum BM is a definate tomorrow and should be the last scum. If SpreX comes up scum I look at Mr Flay a bit more.

vote: SpreX

I'm going with the idea that I think there is 3 scum and not 2.

[SpyreX]

If there WAS 3 scum I'd really be surprised. The recruiter makes it hard for me to swallow 3 - it was about the luckiest thing possible we hit it first day.

A recruiter roleblocker could happen.

However, I think we had a recruiter and a vanilla. BM is, as far as I can tell, the vanilla.

Farside, if you believe OGML's reports (like I do) BM HAS to be mafia (he couldn't have been roleblocked by flay) and flay -could- be mafia but unlikely.

BM, as far as I can tell (if you believe OGML) either:

1.) Was roleblocked (by who? It couldn't have been Flay)
2.) Is mafia (most likely)
3.) Decided not to shoot (already said he did implying a roleblock, but if he DIDNT then he should go regardless).

You are right that it really should be BM or me today. I'd just prefer it to be BM first Since I think that's game.

[farside22]

If there WAS 3 scum I'd really be surprised. The recruiter makes it hard for me to swallow 3 - it was about the luckiest thing possible we hit it first day.

A recruiter roleblocker could happen.

However, I think we had a recruiter and a vanilla. BM is, as far as I can tell, the vanilla.

Farside, if you believe OGML's reports (like I do) BM HAS to be mafia (he couldn't have been roleblocked by flay) and flay -could- be mafia but unlikely.

BM, as far as I can tell (if you believe OGML) either:

1.) Was roleblocked (by who? It couldn't have been Flay)
2.) Is mafia (most likely)
3.) Decided not to shoot (already said he did implying a roleblock, but if he DIDNT then he should go regardless).

You are right that it really should be BM or me today. I'd just prefer it to be BM first Since I think that's game.

You could have RB'ed him.

[SpyreX]

Yes, I could of. Thats why I am not even arguing that point - if BM isn't maf, I KNOW I'm the other person who easily could be with the way it sits.

The only thing I can really say (since somehow I've avoided EVERY form of tracking / cop) is that I'm town and I've done my damn best to make sure we win. I dont mind dying for the cause - I'd just rather it be BM first so I could be alive when we win.

[Battle Mage]

Well, more role conjecture -

If OGML is telling the truth (which I believe) flay COULD NOT be a RB because he would have visited someone. Jenter, I hope COULD NOT have vig'd and RB'd.
I'm not sold on the Godfather Roleblocker (although it could be I guess - although didn't OG track him as well?)

So, really, its either BM or me. Now, I know its not me, but its up to you. I think we have this won (unless OG is the maf) so, town, decide which one of us dies today and which one dies tomorrow.

A few things:

1. Did you ever get around to posting that link to the post confirming OGML? I'd really like to see that before we go any further.
2. You have a good point about the Roleblocker only being you, unless we have 2 scum, although this is unlikely as Flay is pretty well confirmed in my eyes. However another thought i had, was that, in a game with so many potential killing roles, a mafia member with NK immunity would also make balance sense- especially if we had only 2 scum to start with.

That said, i want to hear back from the Mod before we do anything. Im gonna be really pissed if he has made a mistake, when we have such little time to make a decision anyway...

Spyrex jumping to a vote early looks a bit edgy, especially after his plan yesterday clearly set me up for a fall if he is NK immune or RB. I feel pretty much how Farside feels about Spyrex, except if Spyrex is scum, it implicates OGML, as opposed to Mr Flay.

BM

[SpyreX]

1.) Yes, I think its 209 / 210. Its not "confirming" but its more clear - OGML would have had to have a series of lucky events AND bussed his partner.

2.) Dont misconstrue what I said. If there is a roleblocker, it would make sense for it to be me. However, it still could be you if you have pretty much ANY mafia role and lied about your role.

If I end up being hung, I really want OGML to track you. The way that post came out like I was setting you up for a fail (I wasn't, it could have been you or jent IF a scenario like this played out).

It, to me, is really going to be either me or BM and I, of course, know its not me.

[Jenter Brolincani]

The only reason I'm leaning to Spyre is that BM is still confirmable. Spyre has played well tough, and I'm reluctant to lynch him...

[OhGodMyLife]

Vote: BM

[Mr. Flay]

Four to lynch so I'll hold off voting, but

FOS: Battle Mage

- how convenient that when no one else seems to have been blocked all game (someone correct me if I'm wrong), your night action comes up missing when it would confirm you?
I'm insanely busy today so no posting for the next 12h or so, but I'll probably vote BM on Monday unless someone pokes a hole in the current theory.

Thanks for the partial clear, OGML. I think we have just one scum left at this point.

[Mr. Flay]

Yeh i just checked my sentbox. I shot Spyrex.

Obviously if BM comes up as a JOAT, Spyrex is next on my list.

[SpyreX]

That where's its at, I think. Personally, the rest of the town is fairly, if not totally, clear.

If its not BM, it would make sense it is me. If I'm wrong about BM I know I'm hanging and, sadly, that means that maf wins but I dont see HOW that can be the case.

[OhGodMyLife]

Flay, no problem, I'm just reporting my results as I got them.

At this point, I'm fairly certain based on play alone that flay is town. His tracking result actually proves very little since the mafia doesn't seem to have killed last night. It does however prove that flay can't be a mafia roleblocker, because tracking would have seen him roleblock somebody.