UK Scummers Invitational (Game over)

[Patrick]

Day 3 dawns with...

Fenchurch - Mason - Town - killed night 2

With only 5 now alive, you need 3 votes to lynch someone. The deadline for this day is May 28th, 9pm GMT.

[Nexus]

I don't really get the idea of Dan being scum with Inspie. Seems uber risk play.

I'd like to take a look at CDB today.

[Nexus]

Primate, anything else come out of the mason topic overnight?

[Primate]

We barely talked all night. I'll wrap up the Mason Talk and post it in a spoiler in a sec.

[Nexus]

Odd.

Dan was painted as the most likely suspect by Fenchurch, Fenchurch was killed. Could be scum trying to paint a target on Dan's back, or it could be Dan trying to WIFOM out of it.

Argh

[Nexus]

I still have my nagging suspicion from D1 of AVox too.

[AurorusVox]

We don't lynch me today in any case~

Dan, who were you on last night and why?

[ChannelDelibird]

I'll do a full reread of this game tomorrow.

[Primate]

Bit of bedtime reading for you.

Spoiler: Mason Quicktopic

Or maybe it's just that my reads are mostly consistent with interactions with inspi. Eg. I think inspi would have been less likely to give the explanation that he did in #527 about protecting CDB, if they were scum together, which reinforces my thought that CDB is town.

Reading back through inspi's iso, I haven't seen obvious clues to any partners in particular. I still think it's Dan, but largely because I think Dan is independently scummy. To be honest all of my reads are based on my independent impressions of those players, rather than in relation to inspi.

On the off-chance Dan is actually town, it'd be reeeeally nice if he could catch the bullet tonight.

I hope we get to see the scum-topic after the game, I want to know if any of my crazy explanations are true. I bet none of them are. I wouldn't be surprised if the scumteam had a totally different reason, or it was just because CES was conf-inno, or because it's CES, or just because they could.

What now though? Is it just Dan? Would CES have changed his opinion at all now that inspi has flipped scum? Is there a reason for any other inspi-scumteam to have made the CES kill?

Actually, I have thought of at least one. In order for an inspi-?? scumteam to get Dan mislynched, they need to ensure he doesn't get night-killed, so they need to roleblock his bodyguard ability. Without knowing who he is going to protect, there is still a chance that they will target the same person, and he will know he's been roleblocked, and claim and go 1 v 1 with inspi. So if there is a risk of this happening anyway, they might as well kill the conf-innocent.

I wouldnt say it's a strong case for an alternate scumteam though. And I still think Dan is plausible scum, and there's no reason why a Dan-inspi scumteam wouldn't have made this play.

If it's not Dan though then I'm not sure. AV does seem genuine in #547, but as I've said before, I find it hard to discount his early weirdness. Don't have much to go on with Nexus. And it could still be one of the people I've read strongly as town; it certainly wouldn't be the first game that's happened. But it seems really sub-optimal to assume that's the case. So my bets are still on Dan, AVox.

yayyyyy

Oh I can't decide. I finished my post but then I had second thoughts on Nexus again. I'd really like his answers before I commit to giving my reads on the others. Arg.

Oh. I was in the middle of writing up my thoughts and I've just seen Nexus has cast the hammer. I'm not sure how I feel about that, it's kinda made me re-think Nexus, and put me off making the post I was going to make!

No wait. Although I really don't like how little Nexus has contributed, and I could be totally wrong, I've just remembered earlier in the day how he asked me "why are one of Dan/inspie are confirmed scum", and that me think he is unlikely to be their partner. It just didn't seem like he was faking it. My previous reads (inspi, Dan, Avox) are still the most likely scum in my opinion.

Yeah I know... it kinda falls apart because I almost definitely would have lynched him for not protecting CES; and possibly before inspie. So I guess it makes sense for him to claim this no matter what. I don't know.

Under that circumstance it's plausible that Insp doesn't get lynched though. We just call him an idiot and lynch Dan, who whas the lynch apparent. Not that it would have to have played that way, but it's certainly plausible enough for dan to assume it a possibility. Depending on your own opinion of your chances, take the mislynch and rely on your buddy.

Your suggestion is pretty much one of a couple of very similar moves he would have had to have done if he was scum in this situation and wanted to not get into a binary pair.

I don't think what he's done is the natural play for a scumdan, but scumdan gambitted at the meet a couple of times, so it wouldn't be a stunner.

Another half-baked thought about Dan:

If scum, he could have claimed a different night-action, one that didn't require inspie to be scum. He could have said that he thought inspie would protect CES, and that the scum wouldn't risk night-killing CES, and that he wanted to spread out the protection. I might have almost believed that. And then if inspie got lynched and flipped town Dan wouldn't be confirmed scum; he would still have a get-out.

Reasons he might have chosen not to claim that way:
1. He is telling the truth and is town.
2. He is scum and thinks it is worth it to get inspie-town lynched, even though it guarantees his own lynch afterwards.
3. He is scum with inspie and knows that inspie will flip scum, and so his claimed action will not be disproven.

Been reading from the start of the game again. It's weird. And if anything I feel like it's making opinions more clouded than they were before. Dammit!

Also I've changed my mind, I don't want to be night-killed. I want to be here for subsequent days and work things out and/or make sure these lynches go down the way I want them to!

Actually, sod it, let's post the lot regardless. I've posted more here than in the thread, and screw what my objections are, I'm probably not going to play another game here for a good while so let's just take the advantage.

Haha, I meant if I was scum, and writing something else to masquerade as what you had posted in here.

I actually have a mild objection to posting things verbatim from external communication topics like this one, but if it's genuinely what you want I have no issue with posting your comments.

Primate #517 wrote: "Fenchurch has posted about a billion words in the QT and damned if I'm rewriting that. Plus I'm not scum so anyway."

You can always just copy-paste! I asked Patrick at the start of the game and he said it was allowed. Just dump the whole lot in a spoiler tag. Although then it'll be weakened by all my indecision and self-doubt. But yeah, if I get a chance then maybe I'll try and write up a summary or something, just in case.

Primate mason-post #96 wrote:
"Does it make more sense to push a Dan lynch today? Is it too late for that?"

I don't think it's too late, especially if you have reasons why it would be better, but personally my preference is still on inspie. Although I don't know if I have good reasons for that either. So I will think through first. If you have a case for lynching Dan first then do say so.

Actually one reason is that there's still a small chance that town-Dan could confirm himself by soaking up the nightkill, which essentially buys us a lynch if we're going to lynch him otherwise, whereas inspie would not be able to confirm himself that way.

Yeah, I think we're on the same wavelength.

Whoops, missed your last two posts there.

Yeah, I think that's a sensible thought progression. Honestly I just think CES is an odd kill for p much any scumgroup that isn't gambitting Insp-Dan.

And Dan trying to gambit out of being the lynch for today with a risky kill is possible, but it *is* risky, dependent on a pro-town insp not protecting CES.

But then I do also think it's plausible the Insp intentionally wanted to kill CES, and didn't care if it was pushed onto the BG (which I don't think is the right play, but is a believable mistake).

Does it make more sense to push a Dan lynch today? Is it too late for that?

The best explanation I can come up with is that inspie-Dan figured by pitting their opposing claims against each other, one of them might be more likely to come off looking townie as a result.

Also, that they were kinda screwed anyway. Which is just how it goes sometimes. Occasionally, it is that easy.

And, if it is the two protective roles who are scum, I bet it would have really grated for them to have to leave a conf-innocent alive the whole game to keep up the pretense of protecting him.

And yes you're also right that there's still a chance that inspie is telling the truth. I acknowledge that in mason-post #85. His latest post #508 was slightly better than his previous ones, but it's still nowhere near enough, and too late.

I guess my qualm is, I can't really tell what would compel an inspie-Dan or an inspie-AV scumteam to kill CES. Because to me it doesn't seem to give them a better chance of winning than if they hadn't. So many other people suspected those players. And it has set inspie up for a lynch, and of those two teams, I think he was more likely to survive than Dan or AV would have been.

But then, I can't think of an inspie-other scumteam, or a Dan-?? scumteam, that makes any more sense to have killed CES, so I don't have a better explanation.

Another half-formed thought:

If Dan is scum and inspie isn't, then an extra risk for Dan-scumteam shooting CES is that if the kill had been stopped, Dan would have to claim to have bodyguarded someone else, which would look suspicious. Because if the kill was blocked then Dan couldn't claim to have been jailed himself. But then if CES was alive Dan would probably have gotten lynched anyway, so maybe it's not any extra risk.

Every way I think about it, I still come back to the most plausible scumteam being inspie plus Dan/AV. But then I worry. Because it just seems too easy.

You're right in that it'll be better to look at this after getting a flip, but I still think I'm not quite ready yet.

Yep. I was thinking Dan-Insp even before I came to the QT. It's not a lock, I think Insp just making a mistake is plausible too. Anyway, let's see whether he's scum before we speculate too much more.

Once we have a scum we can go into connections and review then. I want to go into this with a fresh mind.

BTW... I'm kinda bluffing to AV, because I don't actually know whether I suspect him or Dan more, and I don't know if my suspicions on either of them really counts as a 'theory'. But I'd like it if the scum felt a bit scared about secret theories, plus it's interesting to see how he reacts. And if I get killed that's a good thing in my opinion.

I've told you basically everything I've thought of. If I get the choice I'd like to lynch Dan and AV after inspie.

(And then be super-annoyed if it turns out Nexus was scum.)

Oh haha, just seen the votecount, and I missed the fact that inspi actually is voting Dan.

And thanks for the answer Patrick.

Also if inspie was town, why isn't he voting Dan right now?

Patrick - if CES Kingmade somebody and inspie jailed that same person, would the jailing stop the Kingmake from going through?

I guess it might be just Dan talking about it from our perspective. Or, it might be a scumslip.

I'm not sure why both Dan and AV seem to have accepted that inspie couldn't possibly have blocked the Kingmaking. Am I the one who misunderstanding how inspie's role works?

Also I'm posting all this here because I haven't decided what to share with everyone else yet.

Also I'm back to thinking it's Dan-inspie.

AurorusVox post #488:
"Well either way scum had to know that CES wouldn't be protected. If Dan was scum, he couldn't guarantee that CES would be left unprotected by Inspie. However, Inspie scum would know for a fact that CES wasn't getting the protection if he blocked Dan. Not a complete slam dunk but should be enough to sway the neutrals."

I thought this at the start of the day, but then I ran some figures and I'd say it doesn't completely prove inspie is scum. There is a chance that Dan-?? scumteam just took the shot at CES without knowing if they would be blocked or not. Because if it got to mylo and they hadn't missed any other kills, we'd probably mislynch, and then they would have lost nothing.

But it does seem less likely. Plus I think inspie is scum anyway based on his play etc.

Dan post #483 wrote:
"Insp couldn't have blocked CES's kingmake without protecting him and stopping his own kill, so that's bye the bye."

Pretty sure Dan is incorrect here, for the reasons I've said below. inspie could have blocked the kingmake if he jailed the target instead of the sender (CES).

Although from Dan's point of view, surely the reason inspie couldn't have blocked CES is because inspie was (supposedly) blocking Dan last night. Hmm. Possible scumslip?

So the kinging. We haven’t had confirmation from Patrick but I also would have assumed that if CES used his kingmaking action last night, it would have gone through despite him being killed.

Reasons he might have used it:
1. Could direct a lynch without scum interfering if he gives it to town
2. Could produce information if he gives it to scum
3. Really, whoever he gives it to might just kill whomever CES directs them to kill, given that he was conf-town and all
4. It’s CES

Reasons he might not have used it:
1. No pressure to prove that he’s not scum himself and ‘saving it for his buddy’
2. Prefer to use it at a later date
3. Risks related to giving to scum
4. No real need to use it, as conf-town and all
5. It’s CES

If Dan is town then he must be telling the truth about having been jailed, which means that if CES kinged then he kinged Dan. That makes no sense, given CES’ read on Dan.

If inspie is town then he’s telling the truth about jailing CDB, which means that if CES kinged then he kinged CDB. This seems slightly odd given that CDB might have commuted and the kingmaking would have been wasted. Although it’s not exactly a big loss?

Or if Dan is scum with inspie then inspie could have jailed any other player, and that might have matched up with who CES kinged. That seems fairly unlikely though, that they would pick the same person; although presumably that would be inspie’s intention, since if he’s scum with Dan I can’t think of any other abilities he would be looking to jail against.

To me, all of those explanations seem rather unlikely, so I’m more inclined to think that CES didn’t use the kingmaking at all last night. But I don’t know.

And I’m not sure why AV is so fixated on it. Is there some way it confirms/implicates scum that I haven’t noticed?

Oh yeah, the funny thing is, there is an explanation from inspie that I might actually have believed, which is that he wanted to ensure CES could use the Kingmake and that's why he didn't jail him. I still wouldn't have agreed that it was a good move, but I might have believed that inspie would. So I'm glad that scum-inspie didn't think of that explanation!

Fenchurch
05-08-2013 11:22 AM ET (US)
I'm sure my opinion on Dan is influenced by the fact that CES spent all of yesterday trying to get us to lynch him. I was expecting to go into today straight onto a Dan wagon. It's very tempting to rely completely on CES’ read, but I can't decide how sensible that is?

And then, I feel practically certain that inspie is scum based on his ‘explanation’ about the nightkill. His actions really don't make sense and he's barely bothered to try and defend them. It still looks to me like the scumteam have elected to sacrifice inspie for the sake of getting CES killed.

I'm still fairly sure that CDB is town, and probably you as well. Because CES proposed a plan which involved not lynching any of us three. The fact that the scumteam decided that killing CES was worth the sacrifice of inspie surely means that CES or the plan was a threat to them.

I've skimmed back through AV and Dan. Throughout Day 1, AV makes a several attacks on inspie, for things that I didn't really see as that scummy myself. So that could be AV bussing, given the weakness of the tells. Whereas Dan just says the whole day that he doesn't have a read on inspie because he hasn't posted enough.

If it weren't for CES' scum-read on Dan then I think I'd say AV is a more likely partner for inspie. But factoring in CES then I'd put it about equal.

And then Nexus. I don't really have anything on him. Is he a likely partner, would he would have done this if he's scum with inspie. Maybe. Maybe not.

You know, no matter how many things I consider, it seems I'm never prepared for the route a game might take. I was gonna write a bit about the kinging but this post is pretty long already so I'll save that for the next.

Also I made a typo in post 77. I meant to say "A Dan-?? scumteam would seem unlikely to just shoot CES because they would surely expect the kill to be blocked by inspie"

FTR, I really think it's Dan-inspie. I think they had the most to lose from CES being alive, since he would have gotten Dan lynched, and then inspie would have had to survive through a 3-player lylo in order to win, which was unlikely to happen with him being so lurky and quiet and non-committal.

But it's probably way too early in the day to tunnel like this!

And CDB had a commute!!!!

inspie claiming to have jailed CDB makes absolutely no sense. He wasn't sure on Dan, he had no read on Dan. CES was CONFIRMED INNOCENT. There is no good reason for him not to have protected CES.

Okay so.

A Dan-?? scumteam would seem likely to just shoot CES because they would surely expect the kill to be blocked by inspie, and that would mean they miss a kill AND they would have to put up with CES for another day.

But an inspie-?? scumteam shooting CES could guarantee the kill goes through, although it's at the expense of inspie. Would it be to their benefit to trade 1-for-1? Well what if they hadn't?

Assume they had killed one of me or you instead. Probably not CDB because he has the commute.
Then it's likely that Dan would be the next lynch.
Then the night-kill is harder to predict. Let's say again CDB, me, or you. From my PoV I'm gonna be assuming me but you should assume it's you.
Then let's say AVox was the next lynch? Slightly more shaky.
[inspiratieloos, Nexus, CES, CDB/Primate/Fen] would be the final set players, so if both scum was amongst them they would win.

Which leaves me thinking that at least one of Dan or AVox is scum. Because if inspie is scum with someone else then I'm not sure why they would kill CES, when they could reasonably win without doing that. They'd only need to get two more mislynches.

Either way, I'm pretty sold on inspie, because I think there is no good way this could have happened if he was town. I'm not gonna vote yet, because the day has only just begun and there are already two votes on him. The scumbuddy will have already written inspie off and so I think they'd be happy for him to be quicklynched.

The buddy reasoning is more shaky because it could just be that the scumteam weren't sure they could rely on Dan and AVox getting lynched and they didn't want to have to keep CES alive until endgame so figured they'd cut their losses as early as possible. But I don't know. I still feel like it makes sense.

Also I'm not surprised at everyone labelling me as scummy for that post, although it's not true. I should really stop making reaction posts. Back when I first started I would always ignore interesting events and just calmly act like nothing had happened, and everyone always read me as town. Reacting to things is scummy.

Oooh. Well Dan's explanation could be true. I can still imagine them both as scum though. Arg.

OMG. I've just realised. Are they gonna say they didn't submit an action? That had better not be the excuse. It had better not!

I'm pretty sure this must mean at least one of Dan or inspie is scum, and the scum-team has decided to sacrifice that player, because it means:
a) they get rid of confirmed-innocent and accomplished-scumhunter CES
b) Dan/inspie were likely to get lynched anyway, so it's not a big loss. And especially if maybe the second player on the scum-team is looking townier than Dan/inspie, they might survive until endgame.

The question is, which of Dan and inspie is it?

Or is it both, and they decided that we probably wouldn't lynch them both? That at least one of them would be able to make an excuse for not having protected?

Still though, fuck. I'm really annoyed CES is dead.

If inspie is scum then it makes slightly more sense for the scum-team to have taken a popshot as CES because they don't risk losing a kill, only that they might accidentally kill Dan instead. Although maybe losing a single kill is not that bad for the scum-team anyway?

And if Dan is scum then it also makes sense that the scum-team might try to kill CES, at least partly because CES spent all of Day 1 attacking Dan.

But the fact that either of them did this as scum doesn't make sense because it makes them look super scummy and I seriously want to lynch them both.

What about the king ability? Is there any reason why a town-Kingmaker would be especially dangerous to the scum - or to a particular scum-team? But I can't think of one so I'm guessing it's just because he was confirmed innocent and/or his reads. Trying to consider all the options though.

Seriously, I cannot believe that. There is no way that should have happened, whether Dan and inspie are scum or town. And even if they each thought the other would do it, it would have been better if they both protected him than neither did. It was not worth the risk. I can think of no satisfactory explanation. And the idea that scum would also just happen to try and kill CES, not knowing whether he was going to be protected or not?

But who is it? Dan? inspie? Both???

I'm sorry, I know I said it would be good to give updated opinions over the night phase, but to be honest I don't have any. I wish Max had flipped scum (or investigated scum), then we could look for buddies. As it is I don't really have any new impressions of the game now. I'm planning to just sheep CES tomorrow!

Yeah, I messed up the phrasing. I meant that since it *is* ces, it's good that we know his alignment. I agree it's got an upside, but it's a shame not to get rid of a likely mislynch.

Well that was disappointing

I mean, the Max flip. Darn.

And I guess the investigation. What do you mean "we know now it *is* CES"? You already thought he was town didn't you? I wasn't so sure, so it's nice to have confirmation. But I would still have been happier finding out about AV.

On the plus side, we now don't have to worry about CES-scum winning earlier than any other scumteam, so we don't have to think about lynching CES early to prevent that, which did concern me. And also now, maybe it would be best for Dan to bodyguard CES, and inspie to jail someone else, since we don't have to worry about scum-CES king-making his buddy. Not that I can convey any of this to Dan or inspie. I wonder what they will do. Either way, they'd bloody well better not let CES die, if they are town.

Eh, at least I suppose we know now, it *is* CES.

p98ynouihn[pokm, yg 6u5rxcpiok,opij09uh 79h 8uyhnuio;npouyg08yg;jo;uogkuv!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh, ftr that post was from Dan. I didn't realise the bit I copied doesn't actually have his name in it.

" Post #450 (ISO) » Sat 4 May, 23:45, 2013 As much as I want this day to hurry up, I don't see myself on the Max wagon ><"

I don't really know what to make of that. If they're buddies, it seems like it'd surely be tempting to bus. Are we wrong on Max, is he town? Is Dan scum and he knows it's gonna be a mislynch? Even if we are wrong I don't think I'm prepared to change out now.

And then again, it's totally mod-WIFOM, but I feel like if Max was town, Patrick would surely have tried to replace him by now. Whereas if he's scum then it would seem pretty sucky to make someone replace in when we are almost certainly going to lynch him anyway. Oh I don't know.

BTW I'm out tomorrow, so I won't be here around deadline.

Personally I think it sucks to go right up to the wire like this, but there's not much I can do besides count on the promises that the Max lynch will go through. It looks like it's on you/AVox/CES to vote.

And what I described just there about CES, I'm hoping even moreso with Dan. My expectation is that if scum know exactly who town-Dan is protecting then they won't bother trying to kill that person, since town-Dan seems a plausible mislynch. The ideal situation is that town-Dan takes the night kill. So if mafia don't know for sure who town-Dan is protecting, there is a slightly higher chance they would go for the same target, and he would actually get hit.

Although I still really, really think town-Dan should play it safe and just protect a conf-innocent. And a downside to keeping Dan's target secret, is that if the innocent dies, Dan could say 'oh well I protected someone else because I wanted to try and stop the night kill' and then we won't know if he's lying scum or not.

Also, is Dan a potential buddy for Max? I haven't read back, but weren't Dan and Max the two major wagons today, besides AVox? I could imagine that in that situation, in a small game, scum would struggle to drive a whole new wagon on someone else, with the added danger that it would look super-suspicious if their buddy does get lynched. So they might just kinda tread water, which is I think what Dan has been doing (Max on the other hand has been legitimately absent).

Although really it is silly to buddy speculate before having a flip. A major advantage to having a mason topic is that we can talk during the night after the lynch, and even if one of us dies, their thoughts can still be passed on, assuming the other is town.

I guess what I'm hoping is that if CES-scum isn't sure whether Erik is gonna jail him, then he might fire off his ability just in case. And then if Erik does jail him, he'll have lost his one-shot. Although it's probably more likely that he'd just kill Erik tonight and use his ability tomorrow. Actually, if CES is scum I think anything is possible. He would probably Kingmake a townie just for the hell of it. So yeah, I don't know what to expect.

I really hope Max is scum though!

It also occurs to me that if he is, I have not got a bloody clue who his partner is. But that doesn't matter yet anyway.

BTW, you should vote!

I just stumbled across a quote from Thor665, talking about a game he played as scum. I don't know that it's likely, per se, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that this is what AV was doing with the Max lynch.

"For the record, I usually think the magical method to avoid something - is to specifically request town does what you don't want them to do.
I should dig it out as a link maybe for lulz, but there was a game I was scum...and moreso I was *busted* scum. I survived an additional two days by continually suggesting that town lynch me (and self voting) in order to remove the suspicion so that they could then move on to better scumhunting. Blew my mind that it worked like that, and it really does." - Thor665, in the scum quicktopic for Mini 1347

Also, "town as balls"

That totally made me grin, haha.

Also if Max does turn out to be town, then he really shouldn't accept guidance from anyone else over his choice of investigation target.

Also also, you're back!

Guide who, Max-town? Nah it won't be any use coming from me if he thinks I'm scum. I'm pretty sure I've already made my case for why AVox is a good investigation choice. And I can see where he's coming from in that it's a gutsy bluff for scum-AVox to try and (apparently) willingly draw an investigation on himself.

Is AV really the right target for this? Am I getting to ossified in plans? Maybe?

Guide him?

Also, yeah, CES isn't scum.

Also, Max's #343 makes me wanna lynch him again. I guess I could be totally wrong, but to me it's like he's suggesting he's gonna make a sub-optimal investigation in order to put us off lynching him. Which is a good thing for him to do if he's scum.

Edit: fixed tags
Edited 04-29-2013 05:38 PM

Is it really scummy (or anti-town) that I'm getting impatient and just want to lynch somebody already?!

It's annoying because I do believe it's anti-town. But eh, I guess I've gotten used to real life games or skype games where everything happens all at once and then it's over. And I wanna know noooowwww...

Dammit.. even as I post about wanting to lynch Max, I feel like I'm coming around to the idea of Dan being scum. My read on Dan is maybe 50:50, which is still better than the base odds of 1 in 3 (taking into account my two town-reads). And I think maybe I've overstated my scum-read on AVox. I don't know. But no... it was his posts earlier in the day when he supposedly thought CES was proven town. It seemed so implausible and weird that I think it was fake. And I still think Max makes a logically better lynch. Arg, what to do.

I do find it odd that Dan has held off voting for so long because he's waiting to hear from everyone. I'm not so sure that town-Dan would do that. He says he has two reads at least, so why not just PoE from that, or play the setup? I think it's possible that scum-Dan would feel more pressure to give a reason to back up his vote.

It seems a bit counter to my own interests to question AVox's reason for voting Max. But... I do want to know.

I feel bad for never getting around to writing up my full list of 'reads' of everyone. The thing is, whenever I try and start, I always end up concluding that each player 'might be town, might be scum' and that seems kinda pointless to say.

Ugh... stalled. I'm worried Max has flaked, which is a problem whether we lynch him or not. If he's town I'd prefer to have reads on him. Avox, inspie and you (Primate) could all do with prodding.

I read some CES-meta today and I don't know whether it helped at all but I'm just about willing to call him town this game. I'll vote Dan if it's the only other lynch going. I guess part of it is that I've stopped caring so much. And it's also a shame because Dan is more active than most and I don't feel we've got as much from today as I'd like. Well there's still another week go to until deadline, but ugh, deadline. And if the same players remain inactive then it's not gonna make much difference anyway.

I'd still prefer Max.

Obviously, I prefer the last option, because it has 2 of my town-reads and one confirmed-town in lylo. The previous two options have, at best, 2 of my town-reads plus me in lylo, and the added danger from potential CES-scum.

Okay I can't decide whether to make this as a real post in the main thread, because it's laden with future kill speculation which I'm not sure if it's good to do publicly. So I'm putting it here for now...

This is why I'm not happy lynching Dan today:

If we lynch Max today and get a confirmed innocent, one of three things will have to happen:
1. The confirmed innocent will live until end game. This is surely, a good thing.
2. Dan-town will get nightkillled, meaning we don't have to waste a lynch on him.
3. Dan-scum will confirm himself as scum by not protecting the confirmed innocent.

If we lynch Dan today, and Max at a future date, then the jailer (inspie) would have to keep the innocent alive instead, which is bad because then the jailer can't block CES-scum from using his ability game-ending ability.

Some predictions:

Lynch Dan
Erik dies
Lynch Max
AVox dies OR CES-scum auto-wins
Lylo with [Fenchurch/CDB/Primate/Nexus/CES]

OR PERHAPS

Lynch Dan
Max dies
Lynch Erik
Fenchurch dies OR CES-scum auto-wins
Lylo with [Primate/CDB/Nexus/CES/AVox]

COMPARED WITH

Lynch Max
Erik dies
Lynch CES
Fenchurch dies
Lylo with [confirmed-AVox/CDB/Primate/Nexus/Dan]

So yeah. Of course, I don't know if this is how it would go down at all, but these are what I see as probably worst-case-scenarios, with the assumption that each lynch turns up townie, and Max is lynched that he seer-checks AVox and gets an innocent. And that town-inspie jails CES, and that town-Dan bodyguards a confirmed innocent. I can never decide whether scum would kill a town-CDB, because he has the commute, which is good, and makes it about a 1/3 chance that they would lose a kill.

Anyway with those provisos, it depends which of these lylos you'd feel most confident in. And it also summarises why I'm not comfortable following CES onto the Dan-wagon - because that scenario works out much better for him as scum.

EBWOP: "Also what CES said about trying to increase the number of effective lynches by keeping Max alive until tomorrow, I don't think this really works if you lynch Dan today"

I think it'll just make the scum kill the jailer sooner, which might be what CES wants, especially if he is the scum.

Arg I'm not convinced on Dan. I'm not convinced on Max. Maybe it's just my sleepingess talking but right now I'm calling the scumteam... erm.... inspie-..... inspie-someone. Okay haha I'm not very good even at throwing around just a random scum pairing. I don't know I don't know.

No wait but it still makes sense to keep Dan alive if he's town. Dammit!

Also what CES said about trying to increase the number of effective lynches by keeping Max alive until tomorrow really works if you lynch Dan today. I don't think an innocent is gonna survive until the end of the game unless town-Dan is alive. And if Dan isn't town, then having an inno will test him.

BTW I will be out all day tomorrow, and some of the day on Sunday. In case the game takes off suddenly, and people wonder why i'm not there.

Ugh, I'm giving up on this spreadsheet malarky, I haven't 'finished' but it's killing me. I thought I might be able to work out if it really is statistically better to lynch Max today than Dan, but I don't think I have the capacity. Although my hunch is still that it is. But there are so many factors to consider - different scumteams; different possible nightkills; night actions; lynches.

Here's where I got to, if you want to see it:
Chart 1 - comparing AVox and Max D1 lynches
Chart 2 - comparing Dan and Max D1 lynches

Also I'm not planning to post stuff from here in the main thread, there doesn't seem to be demand for it. In some ways it is good having a mason topic. It means I can post my thoughts on Dan which I'm not ready to post publicly yet because I haven't had a chance to fully analyse the possibility of CES being scum. And if we're both town then it's quite good being able to discuss future days and stuff, without the scum seeing having a full picture of what we're thinking. The downside is, if one of us is scum, then there are less people to scrutinise their posts here. I feel the weight of that added responsiblity.

I wonder if this is what it's like being in a hydra, because I've also been a bit dismissive of hydras, but if it is, I can see the appeal. Although this isn't quite like a hydra because I don't know if you are town too. But I'm hoping you are! If you aren't I've kinda given up holding anything back.

Dreams aside, I don't get a scummy feeling from Dan still. I think he's playing exactly how I remember him playing in real life; when I read Dan's posts now I can imagine his voice saying the words. Although I can't actually remember what alignment he was in real life when he played like this. But I'm pretty sure he was town, although he may have been scum, haha. Probably town some of the time and scum some of the time. So it's null.

I thought Dan's #216 seemed townie. And I thought his talk about the masons in #276 seemed valid to me.

The only thing that might be scummy from him is I don't actually remember him giving much of his reads. And he's mentioned (a couple of times?) that it's a problem having a couple of players being very quiet/absent, which seems like a bit of an excuse. I think it's scummy if he doesn't have any kind of reads on the talkative players though, because I know I do, I can do that without waiting for the others to come back.

But I'm not sure if it is true to say Dan hasn't posted reads, I wil have to go back and check.

I had a dream last night that Dan hit 3 votes and Patrick lynched him on that and he flipped scum....

Also, it's a lot easier to maintain a town read on when you post stuff... :/

So from what inspie just posted (although his quote tags confused matters), I think CES/AVox/inspie must be talking about of the jailer protecting Max.

That's not ideal, in my mind. Or at least, I think it's only a good plan if Dan definitely IS scum. If Dan is scum then we're no longer in danger from CES-scum, because at that point he'd be solo and wouldn't be able to make his buddy king.

If Dan isn't scum though, then we've lost the bodyguard, and the jailer should jail CES, and I imagine Max would die, so we lose out his ability, and there's still two scum out there.

I'll try and run through the full-game-outcome of these possibilities, to confirm that this is the case, when I get the chance.

And now I really do have to go!

Patrick - if the jailer and the bodyguard target the same player on the same night, and scum try to kill that player, does the bodyguard still die? Or does the jailer prevent the bodyguard from targeting the player?

I'm gonna shower now, don't think I'll have time to do my spreadsheets tonight. I forgot I also had laundry to do as well.

It'd be good to hear from you soon, especially if you can shed some light on CES' secret reasons for wanting to lynch Dan.

CES - "Lynching Max does give us more but it will also give us more tomorrow."
AVox - "If he makes it until tomorrow - in the event of him being town, I can't see a scenario where he isn't killed tonight...oh. Okay no I see what you mean. Let me think on this."

I still don't see what he means! Do you? I can't think of anyone who would be more likely to be targeted instead of Max. CDB maybe, but he can commute so I don't think the scum would risk it. Me? CES? I still think town-Max would make a more likely target than either of us...

Oh, I guess inspiratieloos could jail Max and protect him from the kill? But then he wouldn't be jailing CES...

And if the scum are gonna target Max, then I'd really rather have Dan bodyguard him and die in his place. And if Dan doesn't then he's scum. But in that situation the scum almost definitely wouldn't target Max, whether Dan is scum or not.

So yeah, I don't get what it is that CES is hinting at and AVox apparently just realised.

I really want to believe CES is town. He does seem to be genuinely trying to put forward what he thinks is the best plan. And I guess I like to think that effort is a town-tell. But if he's scum then he can win the game so much more quickly than anyone, it would pay off. And I do think he can play convincingly good games as scum, too.

Yesterday I tried to work through some of the combinations/outcomes on a spreadsheet, to try and prove why it's not a good idea to lynch AV today. It was pretty excrutiatingly slow and boring and I'm not sure it was worth it or that I even came out with anything very conclusive. It's a bit hard to summarise the results because there are so many different variables. But, ideally I want to do a bit more now to compare what lynching Dan vs. lynching Max. Hopefully I'll get a chance to work on it later tonight, although I'll be doing some cooking first, so I might not have enough time.

Woops, mucked that tag right up. Am I allowed to fix it, Patrick? Probably not, I'd assume unconfirmed masons shouldn't be allowed to edit their posts.

Also at some point I need to question Nexus about his post 198. I don't understand it and/or I don't think it makes sense, but again I can't quite put my finger on why.
Edited 04-24-2013 03:20 PM

CES and Dan's dialogue in 213 to 216 makes me think Dan is town, actually. I should make a proper post on these thoughts but for now it's handy to have here as a reminder.

And I'm still totally not sold on CES' argument in 213. As long as Max is a suspect I'm pretty sure it makes more sense to lynch him than have him be night-killed. But I'm still struggling on how to adequately articulate this.

It's AV's whole 'I don't think CES is scum, if he is then you should lynch me', I just find it really hard to believe that he would ever think or say that as town. It seems possible that it came from him trying to fake 'what would a town-Beloved Princess think of kingmaker-CES?'

But I still don't feel sure enough about AV-scum to be comfortable lynching him. There are plenty of times on Day 1 when someone has seemed incredibly scummy and hasn't been scum.

"lynching Dan is the way forward." - No CES, I'm still not planning to vote Dan today. I'm just sounding him out on this whilst it's still fairly recent.

Re-reading, I do think AV comes across as pretty scummy...

Although that said, if CES is scum, I wouldn't be at all surprised for him to Kingmake a townie on Day 2 anyway, for town cred/fun/whatever. As he put it himself in 125:

"I'm not one to disregard how a kingmake action may be perceived w.r.t. kingmaking scumbuddy shenanigans."

If CES-AV are a scumteam, then they need just two mislynches before CES could safely kingmake AV in lylo for the win.

But if the jailer was still alive N2 then he could stop CES from kingmaking. So they'd need to kil the jailer N1 (because if they don't kill him until N2 then his jail action could still go through).

The only player who could stop the jailer from being killed N1 is Dan, the bodyguard.

So CES-AV scum would have an incentive to get Dan lynched today.

Then again, if Dan got lynched today and the jailer dies N1, CES is gonna look pretty scummy to me, because I can't think of another player who would benefit as much from the jailer dying. So it would be harder for them to get the second mislynch that they need.

No that's not true, other scum would benefit from killing the jailer because otherwise he can stop their kills.

On the plus side, it could good that two scummy-looking players have both of the protective roles, because if they are town they are more likely to get night-killed and then we have more lynches to play with. And that's why I don't want to lynch Dan or inspie today.

I currently have you, CDB and me as town, everyone else I'm not sure about.

I'd be willing to lynch CES, Max or Nexus.

I still feel like we should be able to win this.

"For context, my ideal scenario is Dan dying tonight bodyguarding someone, and I'm aiming for the best option to achieve that. But it's probably stupid of me to assume that the scum'd kill that person anyway, knowing it would probably happen anyway."
I'm also hoping that town-Dan-bodyguard will die and we'd get his flip that way. To me that's another reason to have a confirmed innocent as early as possible, because it puts more pressure on scum to either kill the bodyguard, or they'll have a confirmed innocent permanently in the game. I guess they might just accept the confirmed innocent, if they feel potential mislynch of leaving Dan alive offsets the value of the confirmed innocent. I don't know.

People's abilities normally go off even if they die. There's nothing that points at CES as being scum off his actions specifically around the claimed roles.

If CES is scum with max he's reluctant to lynch him because he's scum with max. I don't think that requires a conspiracy.

If CES is scum with Avox, I'd expect him to be more of a fan of the max lynch.

If CES is scum with Max then that would explain his reluctance to lynch Max today. Because if he lynches anyone else then he wins. No wait he doesn't because inspie can jail him. No because they can just kill inspie. No wait.. arg I can't work it out.

If CES is scum with AVox then does that explain things again?

Okay it's late again and I still haven't figured this out and I need to go to bed

Yeah, if our scumreads were all right, this'd be easy.

Ah, ok. Yeah, I didn't know that. Fair enough. I think you pointed out the the point about the jailkeeper preventing kingship being wrong in the thread so I won't comment on that.

It's funny how much Erik posts like he plays f2f, now you've met him.

But if those reads were right then we'd be sorted, because everyone I suspect could be lynched or Seer-checked!

"CES can only king N1."

No, the Kingmaker can be used any night now. The role got changed, for reasons currently unknown - see the opening post, and Patrick's post #126.

The innocent could be jailkept if the bodyguard was dead but then they couldn't also be Kinged. And then the jailkeeper couldn't simultaneously prevent scum-CES from kinging his buddy. That's partly why I'm not so happy to lynch Dan today.

I'd still most like to lynch Max, and for Max to seer-check AV, then we can know for sure whether it's good or bad to lynch AV, and we'd have at least two more lynches.

Right now my reads are,
Kinda scum: AVox, Dan, Nexus
Kinda town: CDB, you, CES, inspie
Null: Max

I'm probably wrong on at least some of those though.

It's irrelevant anyway. I got the kill that the jailkeep doesn't stop the wrong way round, he could just be jailkept.

Spam as much as you want. I king-made ces twice. I'm not sure what the game you're talking about was. Anyway, we disagree on when to use a kingmaker (any time you can).

It's a question of tipping our hand with regards to the max thing, imho. He gets lynched today, we have a confirmed innocent going into the night, and it's arguable that this gives the scum a better nightkill target. I was thinking when I made that last post, that the scum would be more likely to kill Max than an generic confirmed townie, to get rid of his ability, but I think you're right that it's better if we do it today.

For context, my ideal scenario is Dan dying tonight bodyguarding someone, and I'm aiming for the best option to achieve that. But it's probably stupid of me to assume that the scum'd kill that person anyway, knowing it would probably happen anyway.

Also, I feel like the best play is to lynch AV only when we get into Lylo, if we think he's scummy. This will negate his power. And I'd prefer to have the locked lynches on D1 and D3 rather than D2 and D3 (I'm assuming the worst).

BTW, If the bodyguard gets killed we can't king with the condition you gave anyway because CES can only king N1.

Also, Kinging an unconfirmed townie is seriously unfun! And was it you who King-made inspiratieloos? And then we had, like, a half hour day? Grr....

Yeah also what Dan just said. Max might get nightkilled tonight so we'd miss the chance to get both his flip AND his innocent, or the bodyguard might get nightkilled which means we miss the chance to King the confirmed-innocent (which can only be done if the bodyguard is still around).

Also I may not have a massive scum-read on CES any longer but I also don't trust him enough to follow him. If he is scum with anyone-but-AV then he only needs to get one mislynch in order to win.

In fact, I feel like there's probably even more reasons besides that why it's better to lynch Max today than tomorrow, but I can't think of them right now

To me, it's not so much the downside of doing it tomorrow as the benefits of doing it today. I guess I feel we have less information today, whereas tomorrow we will have two flips, so if we're gonna lynch Max as an information lynch then it's better today. And because if we do it today we get a conf-townie, and CES can use his Kinging on them, and that makes good use of the Kinging (ensuring it goes to a townie), and means we don't have to worry about scum-CES using it in lylo.

Also, I totally am about chasing confirmed innocents, and maximising the number of possible lynches and information-roles. Scumhunting too, but after that other stuff.

But yeah. The reason I was dithering yesterday even with a really strong scum-read on CES is I know he sometimes likes to play erratic and unpredictable even as town, so I can't tell whether it's a valid scum-tell.

Also I'm spamming this thread now because I feel like I've already spammed the other one quite a lot. And all my thoughts are kinda in flux now.

I did think you were pretty scummy earlier, and I did read a couple of your scum games, but I believe you when you say you lurk as town as well.

Pretty much my only read is CDB as town. Everyone else could be anything at this stage.

Yeah, I meant Max the role (played by insp), my mistake. It's also worth noting that I'm a pretty notorious lurker, that's why I don't play games anymore. Have a look or ask CES if you don't believe me (he's modded me).

I don't think CES is scummy for those reasons. I wasn't saying he was eager to bus, you asked me what his actions would be likely to be if he is scum.

Kinging is fun enough that I'd probably do it as town on an unproved townie, hell, I did it once at the meet. Depends how he uses it, if you can use it to stop a potential mislynch you think is about to happen, it's really not a different mindset to running with something like a vig, that being, are my reads more important than the town? So it depends on the player, and this *is* Ces.

I think chasing confirmed innocents is a bad plan as well. Regardless though, CES was against this kind of thing at the meet too, pretty much with one of the exact quotes he gave there (though I can't remember whether his alignment was consistent with that). Also, CES isn't going for it because there isn't a downside to doing it tomorrow, as far as I am aware. He also didn't mention the fact that max should be bodyguarded (should he be, does this matter?)

Nexus does worry me a little.

Seriously though, who do you think the scum are? Do you have any reads or are you in the dark at the moment? Do you feel 'caught up' with the game?

By the way, you mentioned earlier about Max roleblocking CES, but inspiratieloos is the roleblocker (jailer). Max is the public vengeseer.

Anyway, I think the joke was "I'm not locked in to making my scum-buddy the King on Night 1, because I'm scum with AV".

The reason I find CES scummy is because the only situation in which I can see Kinging as being pro-town is when there is a confirmed innocent to making King. That way, scum lose their voting power and a townie makes the ultimate decision. In any other King situation, a townie Kingmaker risks giving Kingship to scum. So getting a confirmed innocent should surely be important to a townie Kingmaker.

There are two possible ways to get a confirmed innocent in this game; a public seeing result from Max, and a scum-flip from a mason.

I've proposed both of these, and CES doesn't seem keen on either, but hasn't given ANY good reason why. I don't see Dan as any more scummy than Max or you. And as far as I can tell, CES basically said he thinks lynching Max would work in the town's favour (121), yet he isn't going for it.

I wouldn't describe CES as coming across as 'eager to bus AV'. He said the same thing as I did: that it'd be safer to lynch AV later in the game. That could fit with him being scum-partners with AV, if he puts off the AV lynch now then the winds may change later in the game.

I've got a real scumread on CES right now but I don't know if it's justified, or if it's just because he joked about being scum. Although that still might be justified.

I'm also surprised that both CDB and Nexus don't seem to be even a little bit hesitant about lynching AV today. I mean, I think AV is pretty scummy myself, I just wouldn't like to bet a second nightkill on it. That's a hefty price for being wrong.

What are your reads? How come you haven't posted in the thread lately?

I much prefer to be town. I don't mind in face to face, but on a forum I'm terrible scum.

CES is assuming we don't lynch scum today when making this statment, I think. If that happens, then he can just kingmake his buddy and get him to lynch AV. This will end the game, assuming the flawed rb can't target himself. Basically, if Ces is scum, AV is town, and we mislynch today, we have pretty much lost the gane. This is probly a good reason to get max to roleblock him, tbh.

If he was scum with AV, his plan would be mostly the same as it would be for anyone else because he knows he's vanilla. I'd expect him to be a little less eager to bus that he would be otherwise, because it might tilt his hand at knowing that he was a fake, but I don't know to what extent you could parse that out without wifom.

What do you think CES meant by this? "Me being scum with AV would also prevent such a win. I guess that does free up my N1 action. That's nice."

I'm pretty sure it was a joke but I don't actually understand the joke.

And if he really was scum with AV, what do you think his plan of action be?

Do you prefer to be scum or town? Sorry if you've answered that before but I can't remember.

Noop.

Woohoo! Hi Primate!

Are you a werewolf?

Hello.

[Primate]

I've edited out any comments patrick may have made, but other than that it's as is. If you see something that looks odd, say, I used regexes to format it properly and I may have written a bum one.

[Nexus]

What are your thoughts right now, Primate?

I'm torn between a willingness to believe AV is scum, and a worry that him not being scum would lose us the game, and the WIFOMITY of Dan. Also CDB slowly creeping into the back of my mind.

Unsure as to why I don't really suspect you...I guess it's because I've barely noticed you in game.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm not entirely sure I think that quoting stuff verbatim from QTs with timestamps should be ethical, to be honest, but thanks Primate.

[Primate]

I'm not entirely sure I think that quoting stuff verbatim from QTs with timestamps should be ethical, to be honest, but thanks Primate.

I don't think it is either, tbh, my thoughts on that are actually in the QT towards the end. Feel free to judge me, I wouldn't blame you.

@Nexus: You don't suspect me because I'm not scum and haven't done anything scummy.

My thoughts generally are pretty much in flux currently, tbh. I also think Insp's behaviour implies that you aren't his buddy. Townreads on you, CDB from day one have decayed generally. There's a CDB-Insp link and I don't really know what to make of it. It starts off as looking like scumbuddying and kind of segues into a setup at about the point he looks like he's about to be lynched, but it's possible that's a misjusdged distancing attempt. Dan I thought was scummy D1, but I can't really get my head around the wifom introduced by insp yesterday executing what seems like an odd plan. With AV I don't really know. We don't lynch him today anyway.

[Xdaamno]

I guarded Primate last night believing he was town. I also just read the quicktopic, and I can sympathise with much of Fen's thoughts about a me-Insp pairing, so I wouldn't particularly fault the town for lynching me today.

Consider that an Insp-AV or Insp-CDB team actually played fine strategy, however. If CES is dead and I'm implicated, scum have won themselves into a 3p lylo situation without CES as a confirmed townie. The 'desperation move' logic does work, though, so that's another thing that makes AV more likely for me - AV is also perhaps more likely to make interesting gambits. Of course, we can't lynch him today, so if we get a townflip today I'd suggest not shying away from a solid lynch on him tomorrow.

Vote: CDB

[AurorusVox]

I would lynch nexus today. If he's town have cdb commute (or wifom) and Dan on primate. The likelihood is then me or Dan died. Removing us as mislynch. Nexus can post from star qt as well to help LYLO. sorru shit phone post.

[AurorusVox]

Edit dead qt don't know where star came from

[Xdaamno]

ehh,

Unvote

, I forgot about Nexus in my post

[Xdaamno]

I'd go for Nexus over CDB actually.

Btw, Primate, how come you didn't post your own masontalk? I just see Fen's there.

[Primate]

Er, take another look. She posted a lot more than I did, but all my stuff's in there.

[Primate]

@Dan: why me over fenchurch or CDB?

[Xdaamno]

Ah yeah, so it is.

And I don't know, I could see Fen or CDB being scum more plausibly - although, just thinking of it now, it would have been nice to guard Fen to reduce the chances of us both being alive today and her mislynching me.

[Primate]

Can you expand on why you thought they were more scummy than me?

Are you saying you thought Fenchurch was the more likely kill?

[Xdaamno]

I thought you were probably about equally likely, but I wanted to catch a kill. It was a bit rash, I suppose, because I allowed myself to get framed somewhat again.

[Primate]

Again, why did you think fenchurch and CDB were scummier than me?

[Nexus]

Before you get lynching me (I'm town btw), just want to tell you I am not being given access to the Dead QT until after the game.