[OLD] Open Setup Ideas and Discussion

[Mehdi2277]

That makes the set up 2:4 with a stump. Although adding a voteless IC to the game might work going with that lines of thought.

[Leafsnail]

Come to think of it Death Miller sadly wouldn't work due to the vengekill mechanic. Therefore! If the death miller gets lynched day one the mafia get a vengekill. Perfect right??

(no this is actually a really bad idea)

[Mr. Flay]

That just screws over one random Townie. Bleh.

[Leafsnail]

He'd still get to be a sooortof "named townie", admittedly at a rather severe cost.

[Mr. Flay]

Yeah, but if he knows he's a Death Miller, then he's not going to get lynched, which goes back to 2:4:Named.

If he doesn't, then how can he avoid being randomly lynched, and he doesn't give the EV bonus of being Named.

I think?

[Mehdi2277]

So how would 2:6 with one townie as voteless work? Technically it's the same ev as 2:5 but the voteless works like an IC which should give a benefit that I just don't how to calculate.

[callforjudgement]

Adding any number of obvious treestumps to a setup doesn't change the EV at all, even if it

does

change the win rate. (This is, of course, just another demonstration that EV is not the only thing you have to consider when balancing setups.)

It's impossible to make a power role weaker than a named townie in a fully open setup, unless it's unaware of its own role. (I guess you could make a few of the townies secretly bulletproof, but that's just adding extra swing to the setup which nobody can do anything about. Unless the scum know who's bulletproof but the actual bulletproof players don't.)

[Leafsnail]

Yeah, but if he knows he's a Death Miller, then he's not going to get lynched, which goes back to 2:4:Named.

There is a difference - scum can counterclaim, and unlike with a named townie you wouldn't know if you've lynched the right one or not. That would definitely effect EV, although I'm not entirely sure how much by.

[callforjudgement]

You would, because of the lack of vengekill. (Unless scum get a vengekill upon a death miller lynch. Giving the vengekill to the death miller wouldn't work, because he'd just vengekill the counterclaim, whereas a scum-controlled vengekill would vengekill a VT.)

[Mr. Flay]

Yeah, but if he knows he's a Death Miller, then he's not going to get lynched, which goes back to 2:4:Named.

There is a difference - scum can counterclaim, and unlike with a named townie you wouldn't know if you've lynched the right one or not. That would definitely effect EV, although I'm not entirely sure how much by.

I see what you're saying. That's a much weirder setup than I was originally going for, but might work?

I'm not really convinced it needs the boost, though. 44% is better than most of our non-Opens, probably.

[Kitoari]

Assuming the DM flips as town and scum gets a vengekill:

Scum lynched: Shoots DM, 1:4
DM lynched: Shoots Townie, Town autolynches scum, 1:3

50% of games go to 1:3 immediately:
Town wins 25% of those, or 12.5% overall.
75% go to next day. Scum wins 1:2 Lylo 66% of the time, or 25% of the time overall. Town wins lylo 33% of the time, or 11% of the time overall.

50% go to 1:4. Town wins 20% of those, or 10% overall.
80% go to next day, 1:3 again:
Town wins 25% of those, or 10% overall.
75% go to next day. Scum wins 1:2 Lylo 66% of the time, or 20% of the time overall. Town wins lylo 33% of the time, or 10% of the time overall.

This comes out to 53% town, 45% scum, and 2% lost by rounding errors. I'll say 55/45 split.

Note that this assumes claiming DM is the optimal town strategy, and same with CCing for scum. (and usual stuff like random lynches and townie kills)

[Hume]

I'd just run it. It's probably slightly anti-town but you can't really balance that without changing it a lot; 7p nightless is so "small" any change has a dramatic effect.

[callforjudgement]

Kitoari: If they flipped as town, they wouldn't be a death miller any more. I think you've invented a "townie that gives scum a vengekill if they die D1" role, which you should probably go add to the worst role ideas thread.

Actually, it might be optimal town play to, if there was a CC'd vengekill-gifter, to wait until day 2 before lynching them. That would turn off the scum vengekill.

[Mr. Flay]

Yeah, I feel like all of this is drifting farther and farther away from the point of the original game (Inverted Vengeful). Any role we add is likely to distort... can we play with the number of Townies instead?

[Kitoari]

If it's an actual DM, things are basically the same, only you shoot a townie in either case since there's no way for the town to know if they lynched the DM or not, improving the chances of scum. 2 town and 1 scum die, bringing us to 1:3 100% of the time. Actually, my intuition that this gives scum advantage is wrong. 25% of the time town wins "Day 1", Scum wins 50% of the lylo and town wins 25% of the other. Literally perfect balance.

.. That said, it wouldn't be a very good setup because the inclusion of death millers means the first two days are almost completely pointless. I say just run it like it is.

[Leafsnail]

Yeah, I feel like all of this is drifting farther and farther away from the point of the original game (Inverted Vengeful). Any role we add is likely to distort... can we play with the number of Townies instead?

Yeah, I'll go make my own open setup with blackjack and death millers. 40% is probably fine really, considering the popularity of Vengeful.

[Hume]

If you have 2 D1-only Vengeful Goons and 6 Vanilla Town, then the odds are:

2/8 D1 Scumlynch
-- Game is now a mountainous nightless with 1 scum and 5 town, for which the odds are 66.67% town.
6/8 D1 Mislynch
-- Game is now a mountainous nightless with 2 scum and 5 town, for which the odds are 42.86% town.

Overall odds are 48.81% town, 51.19% scum (assuming scum lynch randomly, so it's probably actually a little worse than that for town). That's actually... pretty much right. If town EV is over 50% then town should all agree to random lynch and the game doesn't work as anyone who disagrees with policy random lynching must be mafia, and if town EV is below ~42.5% town then town has to be consistently about 5% better than random (assuming no informative power roles etc.) and I'd be surprised if that happens. That would make 46.25% to town a rough approximation of the sweetspot, and accounting for scumplay reducing it slightly 48.81% is really close.

So yeah, 2x Vengeful D1-Only Goons vs. 6x Vanilla Town actually works really well. :p

(I spent ages trying to balance the 2Maf vs 5Town setup by trying all sorts of odd role combinations, when just adding another Vanilla Town works. )

[callforjudgement]

Sweet spot is normally somewhere between 40% and 50% to town.

[Mr. Flay]

If you have 2 D1-only Vengeful Goons and 6 Vanilla Town, then the odds are:

2/8 D1 Scumlynch
-- Game is now a mountainous nightless with 1 scum and 5 town, for which the odds are 66.67% town.
6/8 D1 Mislynch
-- Game is now a mountainous nightless with 2 scum and 5 town, for which the odds are 42.86% town.

Overall odds are 48.81% town, 51.19% scum (assuming scum lynch randomly, so it's probably actually a little worse than that for town). That's actually... pretty much right. If town EV is over 50% then town should all agree to random lynch and the game doesn't work as anyone who disagrees with policy random lynching must be mafia, and if town EV is below ~42.5% town then town has to be consistently about 5% better than random (assuming no informative power roles etc.) and I'd be surprised if that happens. That would make 46.25% to town a rough approximation of the sweetspot, and accounting for scumplay reducing it slightly 48.81% is really close.

So yeah, 2x Vengeful D1-Only Goons vs. 6x Vanilla Town actually works really well. :p

(I spent ages trying to balance the 2Maf vs 5Town setup by trying all sorts of odd role combinations, when just adding another Vanilla Town works. )

:applauds:

[Kitoari]

Second Chance

11 Townies
2 Mafia Goons

If the town would lynch a townie on Day 1, the lynch will not occur and the next night will be skipped.

[callforjudgement]

@Kitoari: Not sure if that setup is balanced or not, but all the evidence from mountainous games suggest that it would really suck to play.

[Mr. Flay]

It's interesting though because most of the time it's going to go from 2:11 Mountainous to 2:10:Innocent Child.

[Leafsnail]

The EV probably works out since the town get 7 lynches out of 13 players. On the other hand I would not want to play a game as scum where 6 people have to be mislynched before I win simply due to boredom.

[Plessiez]

@Kitoari: Not sure if that setup is balanced or not, but all the evidence from mountainous games suggest that it would really suck to play.

Yeah, this doesn't sound like much fun to play for either side, to be honest. It is "balanced" in terms of EV, but I think it takes scum far too long to win.

(2/13) chance scum lynched D1
-- D2 is 10:1 mountainous. 437/695 chance of a town win (according to the EV project)

(11/13) chance town "lynched" D1, no night phase
-- D2 is 11:2 with 1 of the 11 an innocent child.

EV project only goes up to 11 players in total, but

(10/12) town wll be lynched. IC dies at night.
= Next day is a 9:2 mountainous. 244/693 chance of a town win (according to the EV project)
(2/12) scum will be lynched. IC dies at night
= Next day is a 10:1 mountainous. 437/695 chance of a town win (as above)

So chance of town win is (2/13*437/695 + 11/13*5/6*244/693 + 11/13*1/6*437/695) = 43.4%

But in practice, I suspect town will do better. Longer game gives scum more chances to make mistakes, if nothing else.

[Staeg]

But in practice, I suspect town will do better. Longer game gives scum more chances to make mistakes, if nothing else.

Longer games also make the town become apathetic, which gives scum a loooot of control.