667: Random C9 (Game Over!)

[Vi]

"Nice try"? It was quite nice, wasn't it?

Vote: JDodge

Wrong. Look at the setup list to see why. I'm honestly stunned at why neither you nor charter (especially you, seeing as you seem to be great at over-analyzing everything) the distinct possibility (however unlikely) that kuribo is a GF.

Why yes, I DID mention it. You didn't quote it. A one-in-seven chance, raised to a decent ~41% assuming both a Cop and Doc and lowered to zero assuming not both. It's still not anything I would want to take for granted (though you seem pretty willing to suggest Vi-kuribo regardless based on NK WIFOM).

At the time you said this, charter hadn't been here in a while; I'm not sure why you're harping on him for not assuming a special case immediately after Scheherazade gave a result.

It really seems like you

believe

that Sche is sincere, but

don't want to admit it

.

I don't know if Scheherazade is being sincere; I don't have enough of a meta on him.
Some of what Scheherazade was punishing seemed to be more in line with bad play, rather than actual scumminess.
This is something I'd like to discuss with Scheherazade.

That said, the Doc-claim scenario we're in now seems to fit the hypothesis of Scheherazade telling the truth, at least initially...

I think kuribo is more likely than charter based on the M-M kill last night, which indicates doc-hunting.

I don't want to admit that you're right, what with you being obvscum from my point of view, but that seems plausible at surface. Only one of the main seven setups allows for a Cop to be protected by a Doc in every case, and assuming two Goons and no further information scumside it seems like the better play to just hit the Cop and not expect

the Spanish Inqusition

a Doctor.
There are, of course, two small wrinkles in this logic.
1) Standard NK WIFOM - intentional misdirection, propagated by a semi-outed scum himself.
2) It's quite possible for this to be a Godfather C9 where kuribo is a Townie. And that's where your pick for my scumpartner fails the logic test.

I'd worry about it after your lynch, personally. With two claimed Docs and only one possible, today's fashions in noose fitting seem obvious.

[Simenon]

Vote Count

Jdodge (1)- Vi
Vi (1)- Jdodge

[kuribo]

hmmmm... the plot moistens.

[Vi]

hmmmm... the plot moistens.

To contrast, your waffling grows stale.
'Anything else to add?

[kuribo]

hmmmm... the plot moistens.

To contrast, your waffling grows stale.
'Anything else to add?

Only that I'd like to read over things a bit.

Got a problem with that? Or is it "waffling" to try and make sure I get it right?

[JDodge]

"Nice try"? It was quite nice, wasn't it?

Vote: JDodge

Wrong. Look at the setup list to see why. I'm honestly stunned at why neither you nor charter (especially you, seeing as you seem to be great at over-analyzing everything) the distinct possibility (however unlikely) that kuribo is a GF.

Why yes, I DID mention it. You didn't quote it. A one-in-seven chance, raised to a decent ~41% assuming both a Cop and Doc and lowered to zero assuming not both. It's still not anything I would want to take for granted (though you seem pretty willing to suggest Vi-kuribo regardless based on NK WIFOM).

You mentioned it in the post I quoted, and not before then - in other words, you mentioned it when it would have the most effect, which is backing up your claim.

And I'd say my so-called "NK WIFOM" is pretty damn valid until you can come up with a reason why it isn't.

At the time you said this, charter hadn't been here in a while; I'm not sure why you're harping on him for not assuming a special case immediately after Scheherazade gave a result.

Because the possibility was there. Generally, you see something, go through the possibilities, and then make a statement on it. This went the other way around. Same for you.

It really seems like you

believe

that Sche is sincere, but

don't want to admit it

.

I don't know if Scheherazade is being sincere; I don't have enough of a meta on him.
Some of what Scheherazade was punishing seemed to be more in line with bad play, rather than actual scumminess.
This is something I'd like to discuss with Scheherazade.

You're unwilling to excuse charter's behaviour as bad play, but you're just as happy pushing against Sche for being unwilling to excuse bad play?

That said, the Doc-claim scenario we're in now seems to fit the hypothesis of Scheherazade telling the truth, at least initially...

The presence of a doc in the setup, except in one highly unlikely scenario, confirms the presence of a cop. It would be a very, very stupid gambit to pull off by now.

I think kuribo is more likely than charter based on the M-M kill last night, which indicates doc-hunting.

I don't want to admit that you're right, what with you being obvscum from my point of view, but that seems plausible at surface. Only one of the main seven setups allows for a Cop to be protected by a Doc in every case, and assuming two Goons and no further information scumside it seems like the better play to just hit the Cop and not expect

the Spanish Inqusition

a Doctor.
There are, of course, two small wrinkles in this logic.
1) Standard NK WIFOM - intentional misdirection, propagated by a semi-outed scum himself.
2) It's quite possible for this to be a Godfather C9 where kuribo is a Townie. And that's where your pick for my scumpartner fails the logic test.

The issue here being that we've narrowed it down to the following setups:

C9
Pie C9
Two of Four A7
Bird C9
Godfather C9

Out of these, I would make the following assumptions:

There is no mafia roleblocker. (Rules out Pie C9)
The mafia had some reason to not kill the cop.

NOW, if you're scum, you know the role of both yourself and your partner. In the case of C9, Two of Four, and Bird, there would be two goons. This also fits numerous setups

sans doc

, which means that the only logical play is to attempt to kill the cop.

However, if the scum has a GF, then they possess the knowledge that there is a cop, hence they know that if they attempt to kill the cop, they will almost certainly fail. Therefore, their only chance is to attempt to find the doc as soon as possible; this allows them to kill the cop, thus allowing them to stop the damage before it ruins them.

Therefore, I make the easy, logical assumption that this is indeed GF C9.

And furthermore, my pick for your partner is

not

setup-based insofar that I believe Sche's investigation damns kuribo; rather, it is based on my current opinion of whom I feel is best linked to you. Your rocky history with charter does not seem like distancing to me.

I'd worry about it after your lynch, personally. With two claimed Docs and only one possible, today's fashions in noose fitting seem obvious.

Your smug is showing.

[Vi]

Only that I'd like to read over things a bit.

Got a problem with that? Or is it "waffling" to try and make sure I get it right?

How, exactly, is your offhand comment supposed to convey "I'm rereading"?
Whatever, retarded line of questioning, etc.


---

And I'd say my so-called "NK WIFOM" is pretty damn valid until you can come up with a reason why it isn't.

And furthermore, my pick for your partner is not setup-based insofar that I believe Sche's investigation damns kuribo; rather, it is based on my current opinion of whom I feel is best linked to you. Your rocky history with charter does not seem like distancing to me.

So it's not NK WIFOM.
I'm assuming that kuribo's out-the-gate hate on me DOES look like distancing to you? Strange world.

You're unwilling to excuse charter's behaviour as bad play, but you're just as happy pushing against Sche for being unwilling to excuse bad play?

Not nearly "just as happy". I also said that Scheherazade had some justifiable reasons for voting eldarad. charter said "I believe this guy is scum" on page 7, said "I still believe this guy is scum" on page 10, and the rest of it was waiting it out. Not that he seemed to have any objections to hammering afatchic... (342)

The presence of a doc in the setup, except in one highly unlikely scenario, confirms the presence of a cop. It would be a very, very stupid gambit to pull off by now.

Rather than bore people with numbers, I'll call this fair. With no counterclaim, for now I'm willing to buy that Scheherazade is a Cop.

Your smug is showing.

Irony.

----

I will agree that it seems unlikely that Scheherazade is scum under the circumstances. I don't see JDodge/afatchic being nearly as likely as JDodge/charter. Thus, after initial reconsideration I'm going to say that my suspicions have no ground to change.

----

Thus, the next step is to lay into JDodge.

A few things to press on here. One is how close he is to charter the obvscum. I'm tired of being ignored on this. Does anyone have any reason to say that charter was NOT playing the part of Mafia D1? The active lurking in plain sight. The refusal to scumhunt. The weak suspicions cast about against people who were looking against him. The desire to hammer afatchic while claiming outright that afatchic was most likely Town.

The being scum.

Yet JDodge

defended

charter, and charter was the only person other than himself that he defended all day. charter even treated us to a display of the most fakey distancing ever starting in 371. Am I the only person to whom this seems obvious?

A second one is his jump to the eldarad wagon. He called early on to lynch Moospiker, and when Moospiker claimed Cop to lynch afatchic as his partner. JDodge was repeatedly called upon to justify this afatchic vote (leaving me to fill in the blanks, which in retrospect I shouldn't have done), and he only did so multiple pages later, in a two-post extravaganza. But he drops all of it as soon as kuribo replaces in for afatchic, and pursues the popular eldarad lynch instead. When charter asks why, the only objective reason he gives is about eldarad's "blameshifting", which I don't buy (how different is this from charter's pushing suspicion on people who are suspicious of him? Apparently, the difference was that eldarad had a more likely wagon).
On a related note, I will repeat that the odds are slim to zero that there were no scum on the wagon (this would require a Vi-kuribo scumpair). The eldarad wagon consisted of:
*charter (who had been hating eldarad blindly for multiple pages)
*JDodge (see previous paragraph)
*Machiavellian-Mafia (for the sake of a wagon, and that his unwilling-to-post lynch idea fell through)
*Scheherazade (misinterprets eldarad's paraphrase as a quote, "disingenuity")
Machiavellian-Mafia has been shown to be Town. If we're going to assume Scheherazade is indeed a Cop, then that leaves... charter and JDodge as the scum pushing the mislynch. Notice that both of them were also on the Moospiker lynch as well, and charter was within a post of hammering afatchic (who JDodge was already on the wagon of).

[charter]

I actually would have put afatchic at L-1, not hammering him, when I said I might vote him. Sche should be back soon with answers to my questions.

[JDodge]

And I'd say my so-called "NK WIFOM" is pretty damn valid until you can come up with a reason why it isn't.

And furthermore, my pick for your partner is not setup-based insofar that I believe Sche's investigation damns kuribo; rather, it is based on my current opinion of whom I feel is best linked to you. Your rocky history with charter does not seem like distancing to me.

So it's not NK WIFOM.
I'm assuming that kuribo's out-the-gate hate on me DOES look like distancing to you? Strange world.

Not distancing. Bussing. Scumpartner seeing his partner is going down and trying to ship him out of there as soon as possible.

You're unwilling to excuse charter's behaviour as bad play, but you're just as happy pushing against Sche for being unwilling to excuse bad play?

Not nearly "just as happy". I also said that Scheherazade had some justifiable reasons for voting eldarad. charter said "I believe this guy is scum" on page 7, said "I still believe this guy is scum" on page 10, and the rest of it was waiting it out. Not that he seemed to have any objections to hammering afatchic... (342)

Sche hammers for "bad play", you hold an objection; are you saying you wouldn't hammer charter for "bad play" (also, I find it interesting you seem to be now

admitting

that charter was playing badly) given the scenario?

A few things to press on here. One is how close he is to charter the obvscum. I'm tired of being ignored on this. Does anyone have any reason to say that charter was NOT playing the part of Mafia D1? The active lurking in plain sight. The refusal to scumhunt. The weak suspicions cast about against people who were looking against him. The desire to hammer afatchic while claiming outright that afatchic was most likely Town.

The being scum.

Yet JDodge

defended

charter, and charter was the only person other than himself that he defended all day. charter even treated us to a display of the most fakey distancing ever starting in 371. Am I the only person to whom this seems obvious?

Bad play, not suspicion. Your afatchic-town to afatchic-scum point is easily countered when you consider that people change their mind.

A second one is his jump to the eldarad wagon. He called early on to lynch Moospiker, and when Moospiker claimed Cop to lynch afatchic as his partner. JDodge was repeatedly called upon to justify this afatchic vote (leaving me to fill in the blanks, which in retrospect I shouldn't have done), and he only did so multiple pages later, in a two-post extravaganza.

I didn't feel like posting my case then. I'm going to go ahead and say "meta me" again, like I did to M-M.

But he drops all of it as soon as kuribo replaces in for afatchic, and pursues the popular eldarad lynch instead. When charter asks why, the only objective reason he gives is about eldarad's "blameshifting", which I don't buy (how different is this from charter's pushing suspicion on people who are suspicious of him? Apparently, the difference was that eldarad had a more likely wagon).

I have a good meta on kuribo, and I thought I had a good meta on eldarad. Kuribo looks solidly town to me, and eldarad looked pretty damn scummy.

On a related note, I will repeat that the odds are slim to zero that there were no scum on the wagon (this would require a Vi-kuribo scumpair). The eldarad wagon consisted of:
*charter (who had been hating eldarad blindly for multiple pages)
*JDodge (see previous paragraph)
*Machiavellian-Mafia (for the sake of a wagon, and that his unwilling-to-post lynch idea fell through)
*Scheherazade (misinterprets eldarad's paraphrase as a quote, "disingenuity")
Machiavellian-Mafia has been shown to be Town. If we're going to assume Scheherazade is indeed a Cop, then that leaves... charter and JDodge as the scum pushing the mislynch. Notice that both of them were also on the Moospiker lynch as well, and charter was within a post of hammering afatchic (who JDodge was already on the wagon of).

I like how you declare that me and charter

must be

scum because we comprised half the eldarad wagon.

Now, a few questions for you, since you seem to be doing my job for me with your pathetic attempts at mudslinging:

- Why was the eldarad lynch a bad one?
- Who (of charter and kuribo) do you feel is most easily linked to yourself?

I would also like to propose the following:

We lynch one of (kuribo, charter) today instead of one of (myself, Vi).

In so doing, we auto-win if we get it right. Otherwise, assuming a GF (which I still think is most likely), we have to make this sort of lylo decision

twice

instead of once. Thoughts?

[Vi]

Not distancing. Bussing. Scumpartner seeing his partner is going down and trying to ship him out of there as soon as possible.

Um... what? I was in no danger at the time. This makes zero sense.

Sche hammers for "bad play", you hold an objection; are you saying you wouldn't hammer charter for "bad play" (also, I find it interesting you seem to be now

admitting

that charter was playing badly) given the scenario?

Hardly.
I could much more easily rationalize eldarad trying to play well, but failing. charter's play has been both bad and scummy; he wasn't even trying in the first place. (But if it wins him the game as scum, perhaps it's not bad play. Hmm...)

Bad play, not suspicion. Your afatchic-town to afatchic-scum point is easily countered when you consider that people change their mind.

And what kind of bad play is it for you to defend someone who

refuses

to defend himself, hmm? It's nonetheless striking that charter changes his mind about someone he insisted was most likely Town for a brief period when it became likely afatchic was going to a lynch, and as soon as afatchic showed up he backpedaled on it.

Writing off everything charter is doing as Bad Play is simply not going to fly. It's just my personal belief that people in general aren't terminally retarded and at some level know what they're doing and the consequences thereof.

I didn't feel like posting my case then. I'm going to go ahead and say "meta me" again, like I did to M-M.

I already have. Even if I were to buy that you brought yourself back to the

horrible monotony

that is this game, I still think it would have been more attractive IYO if people would just listen to you and fill in the details on their own.

Meta doesn't excuse everything. If I'm wrong on this statement, I'm going to quit whatever it is I'm doing and emulate your playstyle. (It certainly can't

hurt

my win %.)

I have a good meta on kuribo, and I thought I had a good meta on eldarad. Kuribo looks solidly town to me, and eldarad looked pretty damn scummy.

Well that's vague enough. Explain, especially since you're currently accusing kuribo of being my scumpartner (and your bussing link is nonexistent).

I like how you declare that me and charter

must

be scum because we comprised half the eldarad wagon.

"Must" is a strong word, one you don't use unless you mean it in probabalistic terms. And that's you putting the word in my mouth.
Moreover, you're misrepresenting my position a bit. I said "there is at least one". That would be charter... or you, if we're leaving Scheherazade out. That's easy enough. And since both of you were pushing the same wagons earlier, I'm going to go ahead and say BOTH of you. This is separate of any individual claims against either of you, although they support each other nicely.

---

Now, a few questions for you, since you seem to be doing my job for me with your pathetic attempts at mudslinging:

So it's normally your job to pathetically mudsling?~

- Why was the eldarad lynch a bad one?

He wasn't the best lynchee available IMO. I'm still

extremely

displeased at Scheherazade that he hammered without mentioning charter once. Further, half the four-person wagon (JDodge, M-M) was there in large measure for the sake of getting a lynch to occur, leaving charter (no comment) and Scheherazade as the people actually pushing eldarad as scummy.

- Who (of charter and kuribo) do you feel is most easily linked to yourself?

Neither. The person most easily linked to me was Machiavellian-Mafia.

I would also like to propose the following:

We lynch one of (kuribo, charter) today instead of one of (myself, Vi).

In so doing, we auto-win if we get it right. Otherwise, assuming a GF (which I still think is most likely), we have to make this sort of lylo decision

twice

instead of once. Thoughts?

I object. One hard lesson I've learned is that you Never Let Scum Go If Promised Another.
It's guaranteed that between me and JDodge, there is at least one Mafiate. However, it is NOT guaranteed that there is one between charter and kuribo. Considering that the primary proponent of the Godfather C9 setup is the person I

know

is scum, I think it's quite possible for Scheherazade to be your partner. Unlikely, eh. Possible, undeniably.
Moreover, your plan implicitly assumes that the line is clearly drawn between Vi-kuribo and JDodge-charter. It's not, and for you to propose this plan I'm curious as to whether you're capitalizing on this.

Short answer, I'd much rather take a 50% chance with no room for error than a 50% chance WITH room for error.
And in my case, I would absolutely take a 100% chance with no room for error than a 50% chance WITH room for error.

------

It would be nice if the people who haven't made a decision about who to vote would come talk, ask questions, etc.

[kuribo]

Vi- Having looked over things, I still don't like Vi, but it's entirely possible that I'm biased because I didn't like him on my first readthrough, either. I've already laid out why I think he's Mafia. Although, more recently, I think he's approaching the setup with a more open mind than JDodge. I don't like the case he laid out about why the cop claim shouldn't be valid. Of course it's valid.

JDodge- I don't like the idea that he wants to lynch either charter or myself today. Considering we have two claimed docs, and that neither setup allows this, it's clear that one of them is lying, and almost certainly scum. So he'd rather take a chance on lynching two of the unknowns? I don't like it.

charter- Some of his behavior of late has disturbed me. He seems to have flip flopped back and forth a bit about Sche, and there have been other concerns raised by others. I'm leaning town for charter, but also because there's no point in lynching anyone besides one of the claimed docs.

Sche- Alot of his behavior pre-claim is disturbing, but that's why he was forced to claim. I mostly believe him at this point, but of course I know that if we make the right lynch today, there's always time to return to Sche tomorrow.

So basically, I'm torn between the two obvious choices. I haven't decided yet if Vi's recent behavior is actually scummy to me, or if I'm biased because I found so much of his behavior before to be scummy.

They're both also speculating about who the other scum is. Keep in mind that one of them actually is scum. (because we make the assumption that only the world's most retarded townie would lie about being a doc in LYLO)

[charter]

Can we get a prod on Sche? I've been waiting for him.

[Simenon]

Prodding Vi, Jdodge, and Sche

Deadline: December 28th

[Vi]

Vi- Having looked over things, I still don't like Vi, but it's entirely possible that I'm biased because I didn't like him on my first readthrough, either. I've already laid out why I think he's Mafia. Although, more recently, I think he's approaching the setup with a more open mind than JDodge.

Well let's nail down what exactly it is that makes me scummy.

*KrisReizer. 'Not much I can do about it.
*I didn't know why one would unvote a claimed Cop if he's that suspicious. This is the result of me being a newb; I didn't know the metapolicy and was surprised to see people backing off their #1s.
*My remark about not voicing suspicions. An obvious jab at charter and afatchic, who did the same. Notice that I actually DID voice my suspicions

immediately after saying that

.
*I took eldarad off L-1. eldarad talked sense about what I was voting him for, and I settled down a bit (231). Before his claim, mind. Then charter decided to play obvscum, and the rest is history.
*I voted charter. I certainly think it was deserved.

Is there any more?

I don't like the case he laid out about why the cop claim shouldn't be valid. Of course it's valid.

Is it?
We can talk about probabilities all day, but I don't know what EXACTLY the setup is, and the fact that JDodge-scum is the primary person pushing Godfather C9 makes me hold out on making assumptions. It's quite possible that Scheherazade is a Cop. By the numbers, probable. By the play, eh (see kuribo 355). But ultimately, as of now it doesn't matter. Scheherazade is a suspect like everyone else, but a suspect that's not going to get voted for today.

@Simenon: Why prod me? I had the last post until this morning :v

[kuribo]

I'm not downing you for voting charter, since we don't yet know his alignment, either.

I don't like when people use "I'm a newb" as an excuse, but I can certainly see that.

Personally, what we need if for Sche to pop his head in and for charter to post a little more.

[JDodge]

Christmas shopping, preparing for finals, whatnot, etc.

[Vi]

Posting before prod.

I really hope we don't have to replace either of the two absent players.

[Simenon]

I'm replacing Sche.

[charter]

Good, tell us who the scum are

[Vi]

Necro-Posting before prod.

That was a pretty good comeback, charter. Unfortunately, it's practically useless. !surprise

'Deadline's in seventeen days. Assuming the replacement is competent enough to not walk in and vote immediately, I sense we're going to be rushing at the end, albeit in an impotent Christmas V/LAfest-type of way.

*waits*

[charter]

Crap, for some reason I thought that Sim was replacing Sche. Well, I was waiting on the reasons for Sche investigating kuribo, but I can see that isn't going to happen. I'm going to post my thoughts on today shortly.

[charter]

I think it's jdodge + kuribo. Gotta do some rereading before voting though.

Also, I was thinking. It might make sense not to lynch jdodge/vi today. If we nail scum today that isn't them (and assuming sche is cop) then it's an autowin tomorrow. Of course this excludes the scenario that it's jdodge/vi, which I find very possible.

[Vi]

It might make sense not to lynch jdodge/vi today. If we nail scum today that isn't them (and assuming sche is cop) then it's an autowin tomorrow.

Wouldn't that happen

anyway

if Scheherazade is a Cop?

[charter]

Good point, I need to try posting when it's not the middle of the night.

[kuribo]

I think it's jdodge + kuribo. Gotta do some rereading before voting though.

Also, I was thinking. It might make sense not to lynch jdodge/vi today. If we nail scum today that isn't them (and assuming sche is cop) then it's an autowin tomorrow. Of course this excludes the scenario that it's jdodge/vi, which I find very possible.

Yes, but if your assumption is also that Sche is a cop, then you'd also have to assume that he happened to investigate a Godfather when he investigated me and got that innocent result. Possible, I'll say, but likely? Maybe, given the small number of players. But still.

If one believes both Vi (if one thinks JDodge is scum), and believes Sche, that makes YOU the scum. Which, naturally, you wouldn't say.

See, my problem is that I know one of those two is scum, and I haven't figured out which.

Of course, if Sche's lying (he would know I'm innocent, you see), trusting him is auto-lose for us right now.