Mini 1281: Walrus Mafia (Game Over)

[Magister Ludi]

Hoopla, what? Your first sentence makes no sense. Can you rephrase. I think you missed my point.

If after 7 games of looking, he's committed the action primarily when he is scum and only as scum, there is enough probable cause there for me to reaffirm my suspicion enough.

[Ellibereth]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... mit=Search

[Ellibereth]

ehhhh wrong link
but I'm town in the first 3 there

and Picto mafia which isn't there because of capital letters or whatever

and flash

and probably some others I'm too lazy to find

[Ellibereth]

I'm actually really amused you can so seriously talk about something I started doing for fun.

[Magister Ludi]

Ok. That weakens that point to a degree.

The percentage of times you've done it as mafia seems to outweigh the number of times you do it as town. Am I wrong in saying this?

[Rainbowdash]

If you can get me a decent sized sample I will look at this more. Head cold is really bugging me right now though, not about to go slogging through a bunch of games. Also make sure he didnt replace into games you are pulling from, 1219 I know he replaced into because I was in that one.

[Ellibereth]

I don't know.
I actually think I've done it more as town but maybe.
around 5 for both or something?
I know I've only started doing it fairly recently and I've drawn scum a disproportionate amount so maybe.

[Magister Ludi]

I've sort of changed how I play as town. I used to assume scum would be smart and willy enough not to commit anti-town actions, and would avoid actively committing them. (this seems to be site meta) That wasn't working so well. I've seen a greater correlation with someone flipping scum if they are playing in a manner I determine is anti-town. I think scum believe town won't figure this out.

So I call it like I see it. I think no lynching is more likely to come from scum than town. You voted no lynch. I acted accordingly. It was nothing against you personally. I'm not going to be brushed off because you may have this meta or that meta in previous game (and the meta in this case did nothing to disuade my suspicion)

[Magister Ludi]

Rainbow, you asked for some evidence, I provided it, now its not good enough? Can you explain what exactly were you looking for?

10 out of 10 games as scum voting no lynch but not ever doing it as town???

[Hoopla]

I attribute negative and positive consequences directly to the player in question.

This is stupid. If the person cannot feasibly predict the negative or positive consequences of his actions, then it isn't his fault for the action.

I notice a rope lying in the grass of a park. I haven't saved a life by picking it up as if I hadn't a person with extreme depression comes along and sees it as a sign to end their life. I conversely haven't killed them by leaving the rope there. There is no reasonable belief to extrapolate those outcomes from something so innocuous.

What I'm trying to say is, there is no way Elli was predicting what would happen by voting - you're implying he was setting up a rebound vote which was baseless speculation. I can make baseless speculation too: Elli was voting no-lynch to get the other townies to debate. See, it doesn't work, does it?

It doesn't work because Elli didn't think at all about what he was doing, ergo you cannot hold him responsible for the consequences.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow, you asked for some evidence, I provided it, now its not good enough? Can you explain what exactly were you looking for?

Clean list or something like that.

[Ellibereth]

5 games as scum
5 games as town

therefore I'm scum
kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk

So you inherently think that no lynch, selfvoting, whatever random shit early game, comes from game. Ok. fine. i think that's silly but whatever

But now you're just ignoring evidence that I do it as much as town.
and sticking to your dogma about how you think scum on the site act.
When it's the sort of scenario that deals with THE INDIVIDUAL's way of thinking toward whatever.

[Ellibereth]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... +#p3520225 <- Ongoing, Flipped town

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... +#p2708008 <- Town

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... +#p2701418 <- Town

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 6#p3243656 <- Town

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 5#p3294425 <- Town

You seem to have the scumgames
you're turn

[Magister Ludi]

No it doesn't. Lets use your rope example. You pick up a rope and hang someone. Kill them. This is all negative. Now just by chance, Bill Gates is walking by, gets inspiration from the hanging scene, and invents a teleportation device. (who knows why he got inspiration, he just did) Just because another person caused something positive from the action of hanging someone doesn't mean I am attributing positive to you at all.

Your action was only detrimental, it was just by chance there was a net positive attached to it.

What I'm saying is, voting no lynch to me is scummy. Had nothing else happened, the pristine unblemished scum tell would still exist on Elli's record in this game. It is all negative. Yet, someone comes along, me, you, joe blow, whoever,and turns it into a positive (if we are assuming the subsequent discussion is positive) Attributing this positive externality to ellibereth is illogical.

[Ellibereth]

How the hell is it scummy.
what negatives come out of it.

[Ellibereth]

you're turn

goddamnit your* I've been stuff like that too much recently...

[Hoopla]

No it doesn't. Lets use your rope example. You pick up a rope and hang someone. Kill them. This is all negative. Now just by chance, Bill Gates is walking by, gets inspiration from the hanging scene, and invents a teleportation device. (who knows why he got inspiration, he just did) Just because another person caused something positive from the action of hanging someone doesn't mean I am attributing positive to you at all.

Your action was only detrimental, it was just by chance there was a net positive attached to it.

In my example, I left the rope in the grass, walked away, and someone else came along and killed themself with it. It was by chance it had a net negative attached to it too. This is what I'm saying.

Elli's no-lynch vote by chance had net positive outcome from it. You say it had a net negative outcome from it, but that would also be by chance.

Unless you want to prove in Elli's scum no-lynch games he used it to the advantage you're claiming he was using it for.

[Magister Ludi]

I'm not ignoring evidence, Elli, I already acknowledged that that particular point is weakened by the fact you do it as town. If you still do it a greater percentage of time as scum, like 3/4, 75% vs 5/massive town database, then it conceivably still exists. If you only did it as town, a la the pooky promise (metagame breaking essentially) you would have a point. But you don't seem to, and to characterize me as ignoring your town no lynch votes in the past is not true.

You're telling me, also, that voting on what I think is scummy and anti-town is silly? I don't believe that.

[Ellibereth]

no I'm telling you what you think is scummy and anti-town is silly

[Hoopla]

This is starting to become a distraction. I think we're all town here.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: don_johnson

[Magister Ludi]

Ok, hoopla. If the rope was additionally extra negative, that is even worse. What I am saying is that the initial action was rotten. Negative. By itself, pristine, without being birthed into this blender of a game. Anything else is incidental. I found the initial no lynch worthy of a vote. Just because 'good' has come from it means nothing, just as if 'bad' comes from a 'good' action. The initial good action is not blemished.

I am not saying it has net negative. I am saying the originating action(s) was negative.

[Ellibereth]

That you're trying to make something like this a "general scumtell" is already silly.
Since your NEGATIVE'S for it make no sense.
But again
this is the type of thing that isn't general but individualized.
and to use it on an individual when there's clear examples of them applying equally as both alignments
...

[Hoopla]

Why is it intrinsically negative though? I missed that explanation. Is a player who chooses not to vote in their opening post scummy too? What about a self-voter? Are you saying anything that doesn't conform to the cultural norm is anti-town?

[Rainbowdash]

In 10 games voting no lynch being scum in at least 5 @ P=.33 is ~21%

Thats just hoofscratch though so it could be wrong.

I kinda agree with Hoopla though on this

unvote
Vote Delta

[Uphill]

Ludi and Hoopla read town.

VOTE: Rainbowdash

It seriously looks she was just going through the motions in the Ludi vs Elli/Hoopla/Dash battle.