Open 201 v2.0 ~ F&I Mafia ~ Game Over

[farside22]

Lacey: How is it RVS if there is a reason behind the vote that happened in game?

[Lacey]

Lacey: How is it RVS if there is a reason behind the vote that happened in game?

All RVS has weak reasoning behind it, because we're bad at real random votes. I'm calling my vote RVS because I don't think there is evidence kmcd is scum. I find his claim to vote on facts strange, but it's not particularly scummy. I'm probably just misinterpreting him.

[JacobSavage]

Wee Random votes:

Vote: The Longing

Because no one else is voting her!

[Fongoid]

@Fongoid
Wow, OMGUS much? I expected your reaction given that KMD said it was a serious vote, however you're attacking someone pretty harshly for the early game vote.

Red flag alert, someone is very antsy right now.

May I ask what you find to be 'antsy' behavior in my post?

My vote is not OMGUS, because I don't believe kmd is scum (yet). However he has yet to post his reason for putting a 'serious' vote on me. My vote on him is merely pressure to get him to do so (as I clearly stated). If he manages to pull out a reasonable explanation, I'll likely look for another target. For right now, my vote stays on him, so he'll explain why he made a serious vote before half of the players even confirmed.

[Lacey]

Ok folks, we need to get the discussion rolling here. So far no one wants to talk, and we should all be talking far, far more than we are now.

farside, you seem unusually quiet. Any reason you're staying on the edges in this game? Normally you're pretty supportive of getting the discussion rolling. Why not this time?

[farside22]

Ok folks, we need to get the discussion rolling here. So far no one wants to talk, and we should all be talking far, far more than we are now.

farside, you seem unusually quiet. Any reason you're staying on the edges in this game? Normally you're pretty supportive of getting the discussion rolling. Why not this time?

I get quiet from time to time. I learned after one game I was in posting too much makes (1) things difficult for replacement (2) gives scum a place to hide.
Right now I'm waiting to see how others respond to what Kmd stated and see how and why people respond as such.

Right now if I had to point out anything that struck me as odd. DTM vote and reasoning on Fongoid is rediculous. How is anyone supposed to respond to a vote that they are told is serious without anything else.
Lacey's comment saying the vote was RVS. Feels like backpeddling the issue.
It's like she doesn't want to be attached to voting seriously for kmd and I dont' get why. Something very off about it.

[Kmd4390]

/confirm

I read the PM on my phone, but posting in forums on it = pain >_<

Unvote

Vote: kmd

Why a serious vote so early? I had yet to even post in the thread, so what evidence do you have that I'm scum? The only person who can vote and guarantee to hit someone not on their side is scum...

A third vote should be enough pressure for you to explain yourself.

I assumed that when the Mod said you'd read your PM, but not confirmed, you wanted to post in your QT. I buy your explanation though.

I see we are past the RVS stage. Well then

Unvote

Carry on.

If we're past RVS, who is scummy? Why aren't you voting them?

Serious question does anyone think scum would post a vote like that and make themselves obvious?

Yes. With two scum groups, if I were scum, I'd be looking for the other scum group. So it's genuine scumhunting regardless of my alignment.

This is actually a great topic farside. Let's open it for general discussion.

How do we sort anti-town townies from scum? What are the tells smart scum tend to drop?

How do these questions help us find scum?

Vote Lacey

I just did a regression on the setup, and even not factoring in the doctor, the setup seems slightly in favor of town, which is a good thing

Actually, it favors scum because scum can't kill the other scum groups.

@Fongoid
Wow, OMGUS much? I expected your reaction given that KMD said it was a serious vote, however you're attacking someone pretty harshly for the early game vote.

Red flag alert, someone is very antsy right now.

@Lacey
1. Actually, taken from Battle Mage's theory, RVS is just as useful as discussion. RVS frustrates scum because it's less likely to result in tunneling fights. You shouldn't discredit the RVS.

2. Depending on night actions, the town could also get screwed :<. (Recalls the last game lol)

@Town
Aside from mafia theory discussion, I'm going to let my vote do some talking for now.

Vote Fongoid

@CSL
Sanhora flaked from another game of mine. Better get a replacement out soon.

^This post reads as ScumDT to me.

All RVS has weak reasoning behind it, because we're bad at real random votes. I'm calling my vote RVS because I don't think there is evidence kmcd is scum. I find his claim to vote on facts strange, but it's not particularly scummy. I'm probably just misinterpreting him.

Um, you can't hide behind calling that a random vote. You voted for a real reason, call it what it is. A serious vote.

-----------------

Farside, not that I disagree with you going after DT, but that's poor reasoning. I think DT is scum who either honestly suspects Fongoid or is distancing from him.

[Lacey]

Right now if I had to point out anything that struck me as odd. DTM vote and reasoning on Fongoid is rediculous. How is anyone supposed to respond to a vote that they are told is serious without anything else.

Agree in general, though I will say Fongoid is sounding a bit too "Me too" at this point.

Lacey's comment saying the vote was RVS. Feels like backpeddling the issue.
It's like she doesn't want to be attached to voting seriously for kmd and I dont' get why. Something very off about it.

If I didn't want to be attached to it, I would have buried it and ignored it, and probably unvoted.

I'm happy with my vote where it is now, I just don't want people to think I'm convinced I've got a case on kmd or anything. I will admit my worries about kmd are increasing as he last posted Sunday and hasn't posted since.

[farside22]

Lacey: Now is your vote based on lurking from kmd? There is spring who all she did was confirm.
So what is the difference between the 2?

vote: lacey

This is the second time I see she is trying to distance herself from her vote. It's very much a vote that is sitting on the fence.

[Lacey]

I assumed that when the Mod said you'd read your PM, but not confirmed, you wanted to post in your QT. I buy your explanation though.

Fair enough.

This is actually a great topic farside. Let's open it for general discussion.

How do we sort anti-town townies from scum? What are the tells smart scum tend to drop?

How do these questions help us find scum?

Vote Lacey

How do they not? If we're looking for scum tells and sorting them from just anti-town tells, a good discussion is definitely going to help us find scum. Farside and I just played in a game that was literally ruined by anti-town players. One even claimed scum despite being a VT, so this is fresh in both of our minds.

Actually, it favors scum because scum can't kill the other scum groups.

I had missed that part, I'll rerun the regression.

@Lacey
1. Actually, taken from Battle Mage's theory, RVS is just as useful as discussion. RVS frustrates scum because it's less likely to result in tunneling fights. You shouldn't discredit the RVS.

Do you have a link to this theory? I'd like to read it and improve my game.

2. Depending on night actions, the town could also get screwed :<. (Recalls the last game lol)

Can you elaborate? How do night actions link to RVS? Or am I misinterpreting the context?

Um, you can't hide behind calling that a random vote. You voted for a real reason, call it what it is. A serious vote.

I'm not trying to hide behind a random vote. I'm just saying, I don't have a case on you yet. Especially with your explanation.

[Kmd4390]

I'm happy with my vote where it is now, I just don't want people to think I'm convinced I've got a case on kmd or anything. I will admit my worries about kmd are increasing as he last posted Sunday and hasn't posted since.

Oh my God, I forgot to post yesterday?!?

This is the second time I see she is trying to distance herself from her vote. It's very much a vote that is sitting on the fence.

This concerns me as well.

[Lacey]

Lacey: Now is your vote based on lurking from kmd? There is spring who all she did was confirm.
So what is the difference between the 2?

vote: lacey

This is the second time I see she is trying to distance herself from her vote. It's very much a vote that is sitting on the fence.

Yes, really. By calling attention to my vote and adding additional reasons for why I am happy with my vote where it is, I am "distancing" myself from my vote. Really.

unvote

Because kmcd has posted, and his reasoning is sound as to why his vote was not RVS.

vote: farside

Because farside's reasoning is based in pure fiction.

[Kmd4390]

Lacey,

On your theory stuff, fair enough. I understand that point of view, but don't let it become a distraction.

No, you don't have a case in my opinion, but your vote was based on a serious point. That's not a random vote.

[Kmd4390]

vote: farside

Because farside's reasoning is based in pure fiction.

Your OMGUS is showing...

[Lacey]

No, you don't have a case in my opinion, but your vote was based on a serious point. That's not a random vote.

That's your opinion. Maybe we vote differently. I would only classify a vote by me "serious" if I believed I had a decent case on someone. I keep casefiles on all players in a game, and I had all of one post from you that could have been:

A) Actually RVS which I misread
B) Later justified

If you hadn't posted today, I would have called my vote serious, but as it was my motivation was 50% RVS, and 50% pressure. Call it what you like, I don't call that serious. Tomorrow, I would have become more serious, but you posted today, and your reasoning is sound enough for me this early in the game.

[Lacey]

vote: farside

Because farside's reasoning is based in pure fiction.

Your OMGUS is showing...

It's not OMGUS, or I would have voted the first person who voted me. Farside is saying I was "distancing myself" from a vote with a statement I was using to claim more ownership of the vote.

And it's coming after I questioned farside's lack of participation as being abnormal. I think farside's nervous.

As for me, I've got no problem with votes on me. Town outnumber scum 2:1, meaning we're 66% likely to lynch town today, might as well be me. Town will learn a lot based on who is on the bandwagon.

[Lacey]

Ok, damn. I just did the regression with the assumption that fire and ice can't kill each other, and darn. It does favor scum.

How does endgaming work in this setup, as it's not clear to me by the rules. What happens if we end up with 1 town, 1 fire, 1 ice, or simply 1 town, 1 fire or 1 ice?

My numbers give a mean town loss by Day 5 given random voting, and Mafia to outnumber town in the mean case by Day 4. Which changes the game entirely.

[Gheb]

.Lacey's comment saying the vote was RVS. Feels like backpeddling the issue.

Yeah, I agree with this which is also why I originally placed the fos. The current discussion doesn't make me change my mind at all and to compound to that I have no idea about Lacey's meta so I don't even know if it's "dumb or scum". Logically speaking I should go with the former but right now I'm more concered with people trying to stay out of the spotlight because I think these discussions offer good opportunities for scum to remain unnoticed while townies bust each others heads. Xofelf did that in the last game pretty succesfully as scum and I can see people trying to play like that now as well.

[Gheb]

EBWOP:

Logically I should go with the latter (aka scum, not dumb)

[Lacey]

Here is my analysis of this setup, if anyone is interested:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... utput=html

[Gheb]

Nobody is interested because it doesn't help us to find scum.

[Lacey]

Nobody is interested because it doesn't help us to find scum.

Well speak for yourself, some of us want to know the odds, as well as how many wrong guesses we get.

[farside22]

These 2 quotes read to me as distancing from a vote:

I'm happy with my vote where it is now, I just don't want people to think I'm convinced I've got a case on kmd or anything.

All RVS has weak reasoning behind it, because we're bad at real random votes. I'm calling my vote RVS because I don't think there is evidence kmcd is scum. I find his claim to vote on facts strange, but it's not particularly scummy. I'm probably just misinterpreting him.

It's the I'm voting but I don't want people to think too much about it. Like she is too concerned by how her vote looks. Nice OMGUS.

[CSL]

Actually, Lacey, you should just ask me.

In 1 town v 1 ice v 1 fire, town loses. It's up to the last town member to decide who wins, if it is in the Day phase. If it's like that going into night, if the townie gets killed, it's a draw between the fire and ice factions. Town loses universally, as it's wincon can't be filled AT ALL.

Stand by for a votecount soon

EDIT: Sanhora clocked out. Looking for a replacement.

[Gheb]

Unvote Vote springlullaby

Do you think Lacey is scummy or not?
If so, why?
If not, whom of the people who interacted with Lacey in the thread is the scummiest?
If you think it's somebody else, who and why?
(these questions are all @spring. Don't abswer them before she did.)