Newbie 917 - Game over.

[Zorblag]

Vote count 1.2

The numbers by the voters indicate the order in which the vote was cast. If two or more players are tied for the most votes to lynch at the deadline the tiebreaker will be the player who has the earliest active vote.

Mysterious Mystery Man: 2: Super Awesome Mega Pimp! (10), Civil Scum (11)
Exilon: 1: Andrius (2)
Mustilicor: 1: thatguy00 (3)
The Quintastic One: 1: Mysterious Mystery Man (5)
thatguy00: 1: Exilon (6)
Super Awesome Mega Pimp!: 1: Antifinity (8)

Not voting: Mustilicor, The Quintastic One

With 9 players alive it takes 5 to lynch. Currently Mysterious Mystery Man would be lynched at deadline. Deadline is 10:00 PM EST/7:00 PM PST on Friday, March 12th. Deadline Countdown

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

Ah... Nothing like waking up in the morning and finding yourself at L3. How refreshing.

I expressed concern about SAMP because at first his vote for Exilon looked RVS, not really good reasoning. I figured, if Exilon overreacted and put down an OMGUS, SAMP may have just found a scummer. But later, SAMP said that he thought it was pretty good reasoning. I disagree. He debated with himself as to whether to RVS or OMGUS. I thought it was cute, and a good opener. Certainly not a scumtell.

Vote: Super Awesome Mega Pimp!

so I'm not the only one at L3 and I'll stop feeling lonely up here.

[Andrius]

Just to clarify, I didn’t call for a mass unvote. I myself chose to unvote since we were out of the RVS and I guess others followed suit. The main reason I did that was because Super Pimp’s vote was on Triple M and so was mine, but my vote was an RVS joke vote and I didn’t want a bandwagon to build up that I didn’t truly feel was worthy of my vote.

Yeah, sorry about that. I reread it and it wasn't a call. ^^;

see, I hadn't thought of that that way. Although I don't think he called a mass unvote (he already 'stated it', but this is my opinion), he just unvoted first and others kinda did the same...

Yeah, he didn't call. But its an interesting tactic. First off, he's a SE [right?] so he has a bit more know-how than the rest of us. Secondly, it allows him to keep the mafia in line, assuming that they would follow along with any town-trend like mass unvoting, to avoid suspicion. Lastly, it would allow him to see who else would follow his lead. If we all decided to unvote, then he knows that we take him seriously, and follow his advice, making us usable.

Vote: Super Awesome Mega Pimp! so I'm not the only one at L3 and I'll stop feeling lonely up here.

1: What's L3?
2: At this point, Antifinity has the most influence over us, since he has the earliest vote in a tie.
3: Where is Antifinity? Has he posted at all yet?

And finally, something just occured to me.
SAMP voted for Exilon sometime after I did, right? And by doing so Exilon was then placed in the first position to be lynched, since my vote was the first one, therein making Exilon the first lynching candidate at that moment. He then shifted his vote to MMM around the time the unvoting began. It seems scummy, but it is early in this DP for that... what do you all think? I'm not sure it warrants an unvote, but it is better than just the RVS perhaps.

[Mustilicor]

Quintastic:

I'm not disagreeing that the likelihood of something useful out of that question is quite low. As such, I think it's perfectly valid to challenge the purpose behind a question

after it has been answered by its target

. After. If MMM were to have built SAMP!'s case for him, as you say was SAMP!'s intention, there is a minute possibility he have mentioned things none had considered as possibly suspicious before. Liars (especially on a medium like this) are very often more aware of when they've slipped up than the people they're lying to, and as such they have a tendency to think their mistakes look very obvious when they are not.

By making the question a non-issue, you eliminate that small possibility.

....

That said, I'm going to echo your concerns with the question because of SAMP!'s failure to claim a pressuring tactic once challenged. Half-heartedly, though. Admitting to pressuring seems like it would sort of kill his ability to empty-pressure from then on out.


On unvoting:

I didn't read it as a mass unvote at all, and in fact only removed my vote because I'd admitted to its purpose.

Vote: Super Awesome Mega Pimp!

so I'm not the only one at L3 and I'll stop feeling lonely up here.

An OMGUS? Really? It wouldn't even be effective defensive play, as DL lynches aren't prevented by a tie.




I'm really uncertain about where to place my own vote at the moment. I'm going to reread a few times before settling.

[Mustilicor]

1: What's L3?

Lynch minus three. A state where three more votes on you means a lynch.

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

It wasn't defensive. Just thought I'd put my money where my mouth is.

I think SAMP is pretty erratic, first voting Exilon for weird reasoning, then voting me when I pointed out it was weird reasoning.

[Mustilicor]

Got it. (I wouldn't have had a problem with a defensive play that actually made sense, by the way. It's not in even a townie's best interested to get lynched.)

I'm in the process of developing a mathematical system to settle my internal WIFOMs. There.. there is clearly something wrong with me.

[Andrius]

I think SAMP is pretty erratic, first voting Exilon for weird reasoning, then voting me when I pointed out it was weird reasoning.

But it doesn't mean that he's scum, he could just be a crazy RVS'er or an obnoxious person or just strategic...

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

I think SAMP is pretty erratic, first voting Exilon for weird reasoning, then voting me when I pointed out it was weird reasoning.

But it doesn't mean that he's scum, he could just be a crazy RVS'er or an obnoxious person or just strategic...

I thought it was RVS too at first. But then he stated he thought the reasoning was solid, and voted me for dismissing that reasoning.

[Exilon]

I'm in the process of developing a mathematical system to settle my internal WIFOMs. There.. there is clearly something wrong with me.

You've seen what I did with the jumping theory. xD Go ahead, you're not alone.

[The Quintastic One]

Ah... Nothing like waking up in the morning and finding yourself at L3. How refreshing.

L-3 isn't so much to worry about. Especially considering you only had two votes on you that made you at L-3 in the first place. I could understand this slight frustration if you were maybe at L-2 or L-1, but not L-3.

Vote: Super Awesome Mega Pimp! so I'm not the only one at L3 and I'll stop feeling lonely up here.

OMGUS vote is OMGUS.

By making the question a non-issue, you eliminate that small possibility.

Fair enough, I concede the point. It was a slight mistake for me to intervene on the line of questioning so early. However, seeing Triple M's reactions after the fact, it seems the interaction has served it's point all the same. As a combination of disappointment at being L-3 and then the ensuing OMGUS seems to be the scummiest actions thus far from Myst.

I think SAMP is pretty erratic, first voting Exilon for weird reasoning, then voting me when I pointed out it was weird reasoning.

I actually think the process went, he voted for Exilon. You said the RVS Vs. OMGUS debate was silly, he voted for you and THEN you pointed out his weird reasoning for the Exilon vote.

I'm in the process of developing a mathematical system to settle my internal WIFOMs. There.. there is clearly something wrong with me

Just a general piece of advice that a more experienced player gave me once. It's nice to keep your internal WIFOM's written down in a Word Document or something for reference purposes. Because although some questions will just be dismissed as WIFOM in game such as "If this player were town why would he say this?" it's actually a useful bit of information to ask yourself and then keep researching for those patterns and see if your WIFOM later in the game wasn't actually legitimate in the first place.

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

No OMGUS was intended. I thought my vote would be better on SAMP than TQO.

I pointed out the RVS/OMGUS thing was silly originally to excuse my not joining on it. SAMP voted me for thinking it silly. It was then I realized he was serious. So, I did pointed out it was weird reasoning, just not intentionally. Either way, I think voting someone because they debated whether to OMGUS or RVS, and then voting someone when they don't agree with you is kinda scummy.

[Mustilicor]

You've seen what I did with the jumping theory. xD Go ahead, you're not alone.

Haha, yes. I feel better seeing someone else scramble for an objective, number based criteria to settle a hopelessly subjective issue. It's doomed to fail sometimes, as humans are horribly unpredictable.. but hopefully by figuring out a nice, logical one, it will succeed slightly more often than simple 'intuition' (more or less random decisions on the significance of each possible tell).

Unfortunately, laying it out too plainly would render my eventual vote meaningless; math is way too easy to manipulate if you know the variables involved. I don't want to add an additional WIFOM scenario of 'are they just using this phrasing because they saw it in the system???' I'll just offer the basic idea for now: everyone starts at the same 1/9 probability of being scum, for obvious reasons. Tells are rated for their level of WIFOM - that is, how many mental reversals you have to go through to make a post make sense as scum. Since I don't have much game data to work with, unfortunately a lot of these numbers are going to be logic based rather than properly derived. This should improve in later games.

I will still be participating by addressing possible tells as I see them, I'm just not going to be entirely transparent with the numbers they're linked to. I hope that makes sense.


Still holding my vote back at the moment, because even math requires data to manipulate to come to an end result. Until thatguy00 and Antifinity participate, I'm blind to anything but their starting probability of ~11%. You're creeping up on your auto-prods, guys. Check in or you'll risk being replaced.

[Mustilicor]

Oh, but it's relevant to note that for now, MMM is rating highest. I'm just not comfortable putting him in a position where a speed lynch could occur, however unlikely, until I'm confident he's the best choice.

Quintastic, for what it's worth I don't think you were doing anything but scum hunting. I mostly wanted to get my feelings on that sort of action out early, to try and make everyone consider the benefits of waiting the next time they see a question they take issue with.

[Zorblag]

Mod Note: Prodding thatguy00

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[The Quintastic One]

I also have been witholding my vote, but for a different reason than avoiding a quick lynch. I'm not sure at this point if I find Triple M or SAMP more scummy at this point. Because I agree with Mysti that SAMP's vote hopping is erratic and have a hint of scumminess to it, but I also see that SAMP's targeting of MMM has caused a bit of whiplash from Triple M in his direction, which smells of scummy OMGUS to me.

@Mysti: Since you voted for SAMP over me, what makes me your number 2 suspect at the moment?

[Andrius]

As much as I want to think SAMP's mafia, he probably isn't...

But then again, we're probably going to wind up lynching a Townie anyway... and it is just a game... idk.
*sigh* /complicated

Oh, and I changed my avatar, for those who recognize me based on that. XD

[Antifinity]

In all the times I've played this game in real life, we always attempt to deduce who the killer is based on what you call a "mass role claim" according to the wiki. My understanding is that here that is bad form, so for now I'm in mimic mode, trying to figure out how you do it.

It seems the goal here is to analyze everyone's posts to figure out who is scum with psychology, I think. I'm going to try and figure out what the tells are in this game hopefully.

Lurking however is one of those bad tells, so I'm stating my piece. Hopefully this won't convince anyone I'm scum.

Also, I'll try to find an avatar.

[The Quintastic One]

Mass Claims seldom work, and are a bad idea just in general on Day 1. I've been in games where a mass claim helped make the game VERY easy for the town, but those are themed games where people can recognize which good guy you are from a TV show or Video Game with your hints. In a normal newbie game like this, a Mass Claim would only put any potential power roles in danger & would also serve no purpose. Since Mafia are going to all claim Vanilla Townie anyway in order to avoid being counter claimed in case they claim a power role.

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

I also have been witholding my vote, but for a different reason than avoiding a quick lynch. I'm not sure at this point if I find Triple M or SAMP more scummy at this point. Because I agree with Mysti that SAMP's vote hopping is erratic and have a hint of scumminess to it, but I also see that SAMP's targeting of MMM has caused a bit of whiplash from Triple M in his direction, which smells of scummy OMGUS to me.

@Mysti: Since you voted for SAMP over me, what makes me your number 2 suspect at the moment?

I don't know who my number 2 is. My vote on you was RVS.

[The Quintastic One]

Sorry about that. I misread your post. I thought when you said "My vote was better suited on SAMP than TQO" that you were debating between myself and SAMP as who's scummy. My mistake.

Although I find the parallels funny that you voted for me for voting for you during RVS, and then you voted for SAMP when he voted for you after RVS. It's just an amusing self defense mechanism you seem to use.

[Mustilicor]

Excuse my over-organization. This post would have been unwieldy without it.

<"Mysterious Mysterious Man vs Super Awesome Mega Pimp!" thought process>

Analysis of Mysterious Mysterious Man:

MMM did warn at the beginning that he tended to joke around. As such, I can sort of see either of these votes as coming from a simple playful townie. However, taken together, yes; it's a defensive pattern. Meta-gaming would be required to determine if this is simply a an aspect of MMM's personality or something born of the uncomfortable feeling of being forced to misrepresent his true intentions.

Breakdown:

Our three options to explain the pattern, therefore, are simple coincidence (OMGUSing twice in ways unrelated to each other), personality (to be further investigated), and defensiveness caused by playing scum.

Judgement:

The tell is null vs null vs scum. Sum of +1 scum.

Analysis of Super Awesome Mega Pimp!:

SAMP!'s voting follows a pattern of impulsiveness, quickly followed by pressuring for reaction from the votee. Even his RVS was a blatant accusation requesting an immediate response. His following votes were nearly as baseless as his RVS vote, which could indicate either an attempt at villifying others to draw attention away from himself, or an attempt to use his votes to judge others. The way he explained his removal of his vote from Exilon suggests the latter. He appears on the surface to be using a.. well, a Wiggum technique, if I may coin a term. Clumsy, and possibly ineffective, but a deliberate, consistent method of rooting out scum. Or hey - maybe he's just a spaz.

Breakdown:

Our three options are personality (which we cannot meta-game to check up on), intentional misdirection, or an attempt at pro-town play.

Judgement:

The tell is null vs scum vs town. Scum+town negates to null.

</"Mysterious Mysterious Man vs Super Awesome Mega Pimp!" thought process>

This, in long, is why I do not believe that SAMP! is the best vote at the moment when up against MMM. I can write out similar thought processes comparing MMM to others if necessary (preferably just MMM vs others for now - only the scummiest read truly matters at the moment).

----

Questions:

Andrius, Exilon, and Antifinity

: Do you actually believe your votes are currently on the individuals most likely to be scum, or are you simply retaining your RVS votes? If the answer is the second, why do you think this is preferable to your RVS vote? (If you're lurking and reading out there, thatguy00, this question is for you too, but for now I'm just assuming your vote is where it started because that's the only time you were here.)

Andrius

: What is it about SAMP that makes you say he probably isn't mafia?

Antifinity

: But.. you haven't stated your piece yet. You've acknowledge the game of mafia in general, but not this specific one. Yeah, I know, not exactly a question, but it's good to jump on in and post your thought processes rather than use your first game to hang back and analyze. It's helpful for us all. (Hell, look at me - this is my first game and I can't seem to shut up.)

[Andrius]

Andrius, Exilon, and Antifinity: Do you actually believe your votes are currently on the individuals most likely to be scum, or are you simply retaining your RVS votes? If the answer is the second, why do you think this is preferable to your RVS vote? (If you're lurking and reading out there, thatguy00, this question is for you too, but for now I'm just assuming your vote is where it started because that's the only time you were here.)

My reason for maintaining my vote is twofold:
1) So I don't show a vulnerability to giving in to the will of others, aka, showing myself to be use-able.
2) My vote can be seen as the most powerful vote, in this moment, since I currently hold the earliest cast vote [#2]. If I remove my vote, this falls to thatguy00, who is being prodded. In that case, the vote falls to MMM, who by you has been called most scummy. Granted, this little power is not a weapon to be wielded or a threat in any way [except a vote against Exilon]. I will probably change it, but I'm not too keen to do so now... I'm being stubborn, as this move is rather pointless, unless Exilon becomes more scum-like.

Andrius: What is it about SAMP that makes you say he probably isn't mafia?

I'm not sure. I have a feeling about him. I think he could be mafia; he's one of our top two candidates. But I also think that its a bit too easy- like the golden idol in the opening sequence of Indiana Jones. I'm not sure...


For now I'll re-evaluate my vote and read up on MMM, as I haven't payed much attention to him... either way, good work Mustilicor.

[Super Awesome Mega Zord!]

He said that he didn't think your logic and intentions are good at all when it comes to your vote on Exilon. You asked him what his thoughts on your logics and intentions were when it comes to your vote on him. That's silly fluff. Because you know going into the question that his answer is going to be the same.

Not exactly. I mean if you simplify the question down to a yes/no "Do you think it's scummy?", then yeah it'd be pointless. But the question I posed to him isn't binary, and I have a hard time believing he finds my vote for him

precisely

as scummy as my vote for Exilon.

Ah... Nothing like waking up in the morning and finding yourself at L3. How refreshing.

I expressed concern about SAMP because at first his vote for Exilon looked RVS, not really good reasoning. I figured, if Exilon overreacted and put down an OMGUS, SAMP may have just found a scummer. But later, SAMP said that he thought it was pretty good reasoning. I disagree. He debated with himself as to whether to RVS or OMGUS. I thought it was cute, and a good opener. Certainly not a scumtell.

Vote: Super Awesome Mega Pimp!

so I'm not the only one at L3 and I'll stop feeling lonely up here.

What made you think my vote for Exilon was random? I posed a couple non-random questions alongside it.

I said the reasoning was the best I could do. My reason for voting Exilon wasn't great, but "great" isn't exactly a standard I can hold my reasoning up to during the RVS. Beggars can't be choosers.

That said, I'm going to echo your concerns with the question because of SAMP!'s failure to claim a pressuring tactic once challenged. Half-heartedly, though. Admitting to pressuring seems like it would sort of kill his ability to empty-pressure from then on out.

I'm afraid to admit I don't even understand what you're saying here. Could you explain it please?

No OMGUS was intended. I thought my vote would be better on SAMP than TQO.

I pointed out the RVS/OMGUS thing was silly originally to excuse my not joining on it. SAMP voted me for thinking it silly. It was then I realized he was serious. So, I did pointed out it was weird reasoning, just not intentionally. Either way, I think voting someone because they debated whether to OMGUS or RVS, and then voting someone when they don't agree with you is kinda scummy.

I didn't vote you because you didn't agree with me. I voted you because it looked like you were trying to discourage what was at the time the only conversation, when an uninformed player would need more evidence to proceed.

[The Quintastic One]

Given the analysis from Mustilicor, I can see how just by considering the odds, Myst's actions thus far would lean more towards scum than SAMP. I just want one more thing.

@Civil Scum: You are the second person voting for Triple M. Does Mustilicor's analysis strengthen your vote on Myst? If so, why? If not, is there another reason you have your vote still on Myst and how confident are you given the information we've gathered thus far that he is the right lynch today?