Mafia Behind the Maiden (Game over!)

[Glork]

If we have two more scum and say neither of them are Daein that means between the two country cops we could only catch half of the scum team as guilties and there would be a false positive on LLD, so that if she hadn't claimed and I had investigated her and claimed my result she would've been lynched without a second thought, furthermore a tracker in a 29 player game is pretty damn unlikely to actually track the scum kill which is the only way he could get a guilty, we're talking like a 12% chance over the first 3 nights, now the role certainly has some utility in terms of confirming abilities but that obviously doesn't really mean anything and finally Dana's ability apparently lacks any sort of fine control because it returns results based on players targeting the player he targets which means he can target players likely to be targeted it's pretty much a crapshoot in terms of what results he'll get. That's really not the overpowering amount of town information you suggest it is for a 29 player game.

That's an awfully big "if" considering your top two claimed suspects are people who we have no country knowledge of... I like how you're trying to justify the existence of an abundance of town investigative power through speculation that the remaining scums are non-Daein. Do you have reason to believe that Ludi and/or Toast are non-Daein? If so, why? If not, why are you trying to paint them as non-Daein scum?

[ToastyToast]

@Glork: I have sent my action in on LLD, but there is nothing that says I can't change it. Also, I have considered the two of them throughout the day and feel LLD used her power in a much more protown way. She copped Spy and claimed because she had no result, and thought it was suspicious that UN didn't have a result either. This is a protown action, much more protown than waiting until today.

As scum, "confirming" information that will lead to a mislynch is something a player would gladly do. I don't see how LLD claiming her Spyre result is

only

a protown move. Do you have a specific reason you think she would NOT claim her Spyre result as scum there?

I think scum would've thought Spy was a third party/other scum, hence the lack of a nation. Its not the only thing LLD has done as protown--she's been generally informative and just better. In comparison to DDD, who I thought was scum early, and only stopped because he was apparently obvtown at some point (although I can't quite remember why). His claim just brings me back to his scummy behavior.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

If we have two more scum and say neither of them are Daein that means between the two country cops we could only catch half of the scum team as guilties and there would be a false positive on LLD, so that if she hadn't claimed and I had investigated her and claimed my result she would've been lynched without a second thought, furthermore a tracker in a 29 player game is pretty damn unlikely to actually track the scum kill which is the only way he could get a guilty, we're talking like a 12% chance over the first 3 nights, now the role certainly has some utility in terms of confirming abilities but that obviously doesn't really mean anything and finally Dana's ability apparently lacks any sort of fine control because it returns results based on players targeting the player he targets which means he can target players likely to be targeted it's pretty much a crapshoot in terms of what results he'll get. That's really not the overpowering amount of town information you suggest it is for a 29 player game.

That's an awfully big "if" considering your top two claimed suspects are people who we have no country knowledge of... I like how you're trying to justify the existence of an abundance of town investigative power through speculation that the remaining scums are non-Daein. Do you have reason to believe that Ludi and/or Toast are non-Daein? If so, why? If not, why are you trying to paint them as non-Daein scum?

Look, there are two possible conclusions we can draw from LLD's continued existance and the fact that she keeps getting results:

1) Either LLD is scum

2) LLD is town and scum don't consider a country cop to be a threat to them from the the point where LLD claimed onwards.

~~

Now the first would certainly be more convenient for me because I'd pretty much be auto-town at that point. However, despite the inherent badness of her play (at least in regards to me [and SpyreX]) her claim keeps me from thinking the first is more likely. If she was going to run a Miller gambit why wouldn't she open the game with that information as is conventional? Because she is in fact a town country cop and didn't expect to get investigated because she didn't expect a second town country cop. So because I lean LLD town, the only logical conclusion is the second and that implies non-Daein scum. In this case that does conveniently circles around to support my hypothesis that the listed town power is not unreasonable.

Also, let me challenge you with this; why is that amount of town power absurd but people have been much less critical of two town roleblockers and an apparent scum roleblocker? Doesn't that seem like a lot of roleblockers?

[Tierce]

Also, let me challenge you with this; why is that amount of town power absurd but people have been much less critical of two town roleblockers and an apparent scum roleblocker? Doesn't that seem like a lot of roleblockers?

Thanks for bringing up something I've repeatedly mentioned which keeps getting repeatedly ignored.

(No sarcasm here--it bears repeating.)

[Hinduragi]

Feh. The lynch DDD plan is really only "fool-proof" if DDD is scum or LLD is the

only

scumbag remaining... which I am not willing to put my money on.

I think we really do have to examine both players and buckle down and sort out which one is the actual scumbag.

I still think we should consider the possibility they're both town and take our time with it.

So you think that there three protown roles which can find the countries of other players? Have you even read Dana's posts? Or my Post 4904?

I've read them both. And you can sure as hell bet I'd be all "let's do dis" if I was scum so that argument is fucking retarded and I don't want to see that kind of shitstain hanging above my head as some sort of dumb threat.

[Katsuki]

Dana

for one thing
Glork's investigative ability is not confirmed town yet.
So right now, we're only operating on your confirmed investigative role, along with UNs.

Ok yeah after this
There is scum amongst LLD, DDD, and Glork.
And you all know where I stand on this.
LLD is the most town out of the 3 methinks
So I guess I'll be happy with DDD/Glork dying.
Still not happy with toasty/TSH and still think there is scum amongst them.
Glork threatening me and hindu with scumreads for not voting is all sorts of bad.

[Katsuki]

Add in that Glork has been talking to us as if he knows we're town. >.>b

[Glork]

I don't have an issue with there being multiple roleblockers. There isn't an issue with which takes precedence at least between Toasty / Alch, considering Toast acts during the day, before Alch would.

I certainly think that 2 town, 1 scum RB is far more likely thank 4 protown investigative roles. And you know what else is more likely? 3 town investigatives and 1 scum investigative.

PEdit: The mason with an investigative ability has confirmed me as protown. He also said he knew MoI was looking for backup, so you know that it's more tha JUST country he gets, and it's enough for him to call me confirmed town. Kats, stop being completely brain-dead and doing your best to throw this game if in fact you are protown. Nothing in my play remotely suggests Glorkscum, and the best you've manages to say against me was FALSELY accusing me of jumping the Oman wagon D2 when I only ever voted for Nexus. There is literally nothing to suggest Glorkscum, and you can ask Toasty, Dana, Tierce, DDD, LLD, Hindu, Tammy, or TSH about that. It is literally impossible to lynch me at this point. So try voting for scum, champ. You want to sit here and act like I'm retarded and/or scum for considering possible Kats-scum, when you're being at least as dense about your opinion of me. There is zero chance of me being scum. None. Get your head out of your ass.

[Glork]

Add in that Glork has been talking to us as if he knows we're town. >.>b

I think you're town, but your posting has been shit enough to make me wonder. Because you're supposed to be better than this.

[Katsuki]

Add in that Glork has been talking to us as if he knows we're town. >.>b

I think you're town, but your posting has been shit enough to make me wonder. Because you're supposed to be better than this.

I thought I was suppose to be a VI.

read that giant post of yours later.

[Glork]

Also, DDD, don't you dare give me any of this "they don't think LLD is a threat" horse shit. The last two nights, they have targeted Tammy, who is on their list, and Alch, who was on their list. LLD is alive because killing her doesn't win the game. It's just a play to hopefully-not-lose-immediately. And I know you know this.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I certainly think that 2 town, 1 scum RB is far more likely thank 4 protown investigative roles. And you know what else is more likely? 3 town investigatives and 1 scum investigative.

Hey, you know what's certainly possible 4 protown investigative roles and a scum investigative role or two. You know who could've had those scum investigative roles? How about some of the four dead scum or if there's two scum left the non-roleblocking scum? Nope, that's not possible, all of the investigative roles in the game must be alive and claimed right now.

I don't even know why I'm bothering with you, I make a logical argument why your assumptions are wrong and you counter by simply restating your assumption as fact and that always seem to lead back to "DDD = scum". Well your assumptions are wrong in theory and they're wrong in fact and I'm getting a little bit tired of trying to hold a conversation with someone who isn't actually interested in the conversation.

Pedit. Two nights ago they targeted Tammy, huh? Absolutely no chance that Toasty-scum got blocked trying to send in the kill, huh?

[Glork]

And N3, they ALSO killed someone on the list (who was confirmed town to boot), and N4 we can't say for sure, but there's a chance that Grey shot at Tammy as they were trying to catch her on a not-commuted night. LLD has been left alive because there are MUCH higher priority targets. You're suggesting that the scums are making strategically awful decisions for the sake of stopping a power role which might not even hit scum? Pfft.



I'm not entirely sure I buy the existence of a scum role blocker. A scum RB would block+kill Tammy of they were unsure, not keep blocking Dana. I still think Dana's ability is being stopped by the Mass Outrage / Endless War mechanic, much like TSH's failed protections. Really undecided on this, though.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

And N3, they ALSO killed someone on the list (who was confirmed town to boot), and N4 we can't say for sure, but there's a chance that Grey shot at Tammy as they were trying to catch her on a not-commuted night. LLD has been left alive because there are MUCH higher priority targets. You're suggesting that the scums are making strategically awful decisions for the sake of stopping a power role which might not even hit scum? Pfft.

You know something else I hate, this idea that we know who is on the list. For whatever reason, people have taken Tim's speculation as gospel when I at least have no reason to believe that's the case other than it makes some flavor sense.

I like that your argument is that I'm suggesting scum is making sub-optimal plays when your explanation of N4 is "well they were shooting at a commuter on the off-chance she wasn't commuting". Really? And I'm the one who has to depend on scum making strategically awful decisions to support my ideas?

[Glork]

Oh, so now we're onto the "there could be even MORE bad investigative roles" theory. Fantastic.

I hate playing Outguess the Mod like this generally, but it looks like I'm going to have to get into some game design / setup speculation, when I get home tonight.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Oh, so now we're onto the "there could be even MORE bad investigative roles" theory. Fantastic.

I hate playing Outguess the Mod like this generally, but it looks like I'm going to have to get into some game design / setup speculation, when I get home tonight.

You were the one who started it given that you've tried to reduce the day to LLD vs. DDD solely on those grounds.

[Vi]

Mini Vote Count (49):

Sothe
Debonair Danny DiPietro (L-4) ~ Lady Lambdadelta, ToastyToast, Magister Ludi, danakillsu
Glork (L-6) ~ Gammagooey, Katsuki
Gammagooey (L-7) ~ singersigner
Nikanor (L-7) ~ Hinduragi

Not Voting:

Teleporting Speed Hippos, Debonair Danny DiPietro,

Magister Ludi,

Nikanor, Tierce,

danakillsu,

Tammy, Glork

--With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

76

[ToastyToast]

@DDD: But don't you think the fact that dana has a similar cop power makes it ever

less

likely that both you and LLD are town? It makes no logical sense to me to have 3 "country cop" type roles in the game, and have all of them alligned with town, especially in this game.

[ToastyToast]

I think it should be more of dana vs. DDD vs. LLD, but dana's power is a lot like mine--a somewhat nerfed/warped version of another powerful role that is already in the game.

[Glork]

I think it should be more of dana vs. DDD vs. LLD, but dana's power is a lot like mine--a somewhat nerfed/warped version of another powerful role that is already in the game.

Well, except MoI was protown and said he is confirmed protown masons with Dana. Dana's alignment is guaranteed. That's why it's down to DDD/LLD.

[Tammy]

Okay so, Implosion went after Toasty, TSH, and Dramonic. Tried to steer votes away from the Magister Ludi and GreyIce wagon in Post 1070. Thought DDD could be scum. Thought Nexus was null and Nikanor was probably town.

There was some interaction between Toasty and Implosion but most of it dealt with why each thought the other was scum, most of it seemed rather natural though and none of it looked staged. Also, since he said that GreyIce was a meh lynch and seemed to be steering away from one partner, I'm not seeing bussing here. Also, Toasty in his reads had GreyIce, Implosion and Shmugen in his scum list and Nexus in his null. Although he said that he wanted Shmugen to post soon but complained about the posts he made. I'll have to go back and look at that.

Magister Ludi's interaction with Implosion didn't feel as natural; however, in Post 1169 he apologizes to Implosion for asking a question. This would be a little strange for a partner to do as any communication would be understood as trying to make it look like they weren't partners so there would be no need to apologize for asking question in a certain way.

But, I don't like that Implosion called the ML wagon a meh one just like the GreyIce one.

So, not sold on a Toasty partnership, but could be a possibility of a ML one.

All right, tired...look at the rest tomorrow.

Nexus wanted to lynch Alchemist, and called out TSH for calling out Toasty for not mentioning Shmugen and seemed annoyed with TSH for it. Hmm...okay don't know what to make of that. Thought Ludi's hop onto the MoI wagon was terrible. TSH is the only one of his scum read still alive.

--------

Shmu -

Voted Singer, Toasty and Magister Ludi while here.

Scum (S-W) Toasty, Ludi? Singer? *Insert Lurkers here*
Null (Scum to Town): *Insert more Lurkers*, DDDP, Alchemist, Nikanor, Haze, LLD, Dramonic, Zdenek, Grey, Wyrd, Spy
Town (S-W): Tierce, Glork, Duplicity, Tammy, Gamma, MaguaoI

One of the last things he said was: "I can go for a lurker lynch if Ludi isn't going to get the axe. Oman, Nexus, Katsuki, take your pick."

---------

GreyIce - Pretty much immediately went after Toasty, but didn't have a strong scum read on Ludi. Also tried to direct the wagon away from Implosion and onto Katsuki. Thought Tierce was obvtown, attacked Toasty for not putting Katsuki in his town to scum list and for calling him scum for going after Katsuki (or something like that). Voted Implosion saying that it beat the shit out of a Ludi wagon, then voted for Quilford because it beat either MoI or a Ludi wagon. Next day voted Nexus while screaming that he and Ludi were obviously town (he was drunk I think - no judgment cuz heh but speaks to his mindset) and screamed that Katsuki should be lynched instead. Said Singer was scum and had some interaction with DDD (doesn't really loooook like partner interaction).

This was his read on LLD after it was requested by MoI:

"LLD is... I dunno. She's whining up a storm, but she'd happily scumplain about something for as long as she could. She's calling me a good vig shot though, so I'd return the favor ^_^"

In fact they had very little interaction most of the game.

What he said after the Nexus lynch:

"The vig should vig from this group if Nexus flips scum: Debonair Danny DiPietro, Gammagooey, SpyreX, Nikanor, danakillsu, UberNinja, kanyeknowsbest"

One of his last mentions of LLD and vote on DDD.

Vote: DDD

I am 100% convinced that UberNinja and LLD did not concoct some amazing plan to match claims in their Quicktopic. Meaning at best 1 of these 2 is scum.

Were I going to vote...

um...

*sigh*

I like LLD more, so I'd probably vote Uber, but based on gameplay coin flip.

She was on Nexus exactly long enough for it to be a bus. Yes, honey, you bus like a madman, I am aware of this.

Uber, otoh has done jack.

But my initial vote?

Oh I like that one.

-------------

Duplicity

Scum but by the time they were killed on night two they had pushed Implosion scum, Nexus scum, given a scum read on Shmu. Decided near the end of day two that Ludi looked town based on his reaction to the Shmu flip and wanted to lynch LLD if the Nexus lynch didn't go through but had a town read on DDD.


All right so basically Shmu and Nexus disliked things that Ludi did, but GreyIce and Implosion were directing attention away from Ludi.

Nexus is the only one that didn't actively go after Toasty though.

GreyIce going after DDD like that on day 3/4? could be bussing, but as they were already down three I don't know that I buy that he would go after one of his last remaining partners that day. This is before the Sanaki claim, so they were potentially still up in the air over who their targets were. Seems a bit dangerous to bus. Especially if GreyIce's earlier claim that there were 24 motherfuckers to mow threw was a number slip and there was only one left.

But, here is the end of the day vote count on GreyIce:


GreyICE (LYNCH) ~ Alchemist, Gammagooey, Benmage, Lady Lambdadelta, Glork, Katsuki, Hinduragi, Rhinox, singersigner, (danakillsu), et al.
Benmage (L-8) ~ GreyICE, ToastyToast

Not Voting: Teleporting Speed Hippos, Debonair Danny DiPietro, kanyeknowsbest, Magister Ludi, Nikanor, Tammy, danakillsu, Tierce

Okay don't really know what to make of that, but hmmm... I don't think any of that helped to clear things up as I hoped it would be.

[Vi]

Vote Count XLV:

Ashera
Debonair Danny DiPietro (L-4) ~ Lady Lambdadelta, ToastyToast, Magister Ludi, danakillsu
Glork (L-6) ~ Gammagooey, Katsuki
Gammagooey (L-7) ~ singersigner
Nikanor (L-7) ~ Hinduragi

Not Voting:

Teleporting Speed Hippos, Debonair Danny DiPietro, Nikanor, Tierce, Tammy, Glork

--With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

77

[Hinduragi]

So, anyways, with the way Vi is making these VC's, I'm PRETTY fucking sure this one was for the blue number and that alone. Probably something to do with an action of some sort. Either way, when those three got themselves modkilled, it went up by 10 or 11 as well. I really don't think we're done seeing that blue number so just make sure you're aware of this.

[Tierce]

Mini VCs don't increase numbers (as far as I recall), regular VCs do. I believe I've already remarked on this.

[Tammy]

Yeah Tierce you should probably compare the two vote counts that are a whole 5 posts apart on this very page.