Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

[Pine]

You are @Elbirn thinking he's wrong.

[Pine]

Maybe some kind of even night commuter?

[Aj The Epic]

Your first mistake is thinking I'd no kill there. I have a feeling someone did a little meta dive and checked my play in Tarot Mafia to explain away my no killing as it was a controversial call for my dead scumbuddies (nearly paid off), but as someone who THRIVES as scum on night kills and night action WIFOM in general, that was not a place where I'd have any objective benefit to no killing (even as a rolecop). The reason being:

A.) There's 2 basic conftown players sitting alive
B.) If I've rolecopped Pine, I see 3x? This is why I asked Pine to clarify. We had just completed N4, I would've guessed going into that night that his shots were gone. The only argument against this is if Motion Detector has sat on Pine before and found no movement. This is a likely scenario that cannot be forgotten here, but it requires a lot of shit happening including the existence of a role that hasn't flipped.
C.) Simply put, gambits gain power the closer they are to Lylo. That was N5 and D6, which was an objective day early. N6/D7 or N7/D8 (today) are much better gambit days. Most specifically no killing in a situation when the last scumbuddy has died doesn't work unless you actively gambit.

Verify that the only gambit I could've played D6 was baiting out your role claim. Then look to realize the scenario that happens and see how little benefit I can expect for not getting a confirmed town off the board. Also, Titus never makes it to LYLO with me as scum. This is something I discuss in Tarot Mafia and my ideology should be clear as day that confirmed town do not enter last day voting situations at all cost (aside treestumps...)

[Elbirn]

TBH scum has to predict a no kill on sonia's death day to explain that.

...What?

[Elbirn]

Maybe some kind of even night commuter?

You're saying the scum is a commuter who commuted instead of killing?

Couldn't they do both?

Isn't commuter non-normal?

What would they be avoiding role-wise?

[Elbirn]

Welcome.

Still enjoying the summer breeze (alive)

Pine
Aj The Epic
Elbirn

Not haunting the grounds, we swear (dead)

Lapsa,

Townie

, lynched Day 1.
Lil Uzi Vert,

Town Vanilla Cop

, killed Night 1.
CloudKicker,

Mafia Loved Traitor

, killed Night 1.
mozamis,

Town Mason

, lynched Day 2.
Cabd,

Town Gunsmith

, killed Night 2.
Nosferatu,

Mafia Motion Detector

, killed Night 2.
Gamma Emerald,

Townie

, lynched Day 3.
ssbm_Kyouko,

Townie

, killed Night 3.
Alisae,

Town Vigilante

, killed Night 3.
Nero Cain,

Mafia Goon

, lynched Day 4.
xSoniaNevermindx,

Townie

, lynched Day 5.
gerryoat,

Town Mason Bodyguard

, killed Night 5.
Tywin Lannister,

Townie

, lynched Day 6.
Titus,

Townie

, killed Night 7.

...Okay yeah why does last scum not kill on even nights

[Elbirn]

Maybe some kind of even night commuter?

You're saying the scum is a commuter who commuted instead of killing?

Couldn't they do both?

Isn't commuter non-normal?

What would they be avoiding role-wise?

Okayokay commuter is not a bus driver we're good

Commuter can't kill when commuting, is normal, but I still contest what in the world they think they're avoiding? VT? Why wouldn't they just take their shots both of those nights?

[Aj The Epic]

TBH scum has to predict a no kill on sonia's death day to explain that.

...What?

Should've been 'role blocker'.

Also thinking of it now, scum also has to predict the blocker wouldn't go after them.

[Pine]

Elbirn i'm just blindly guessing about Commuter. I noticed the lack of even night deaths and that was what occurred to me. It's probably wrong

[Elbirn]

Zzzzz talk talk talk

Aj you were leaning towards pine yes? Can you summarize why and also tell the class why I'm town?

[Pine]

Yeah, AJ wasn't leaning me until I started to suspect him. In fact, he had me as Town until pretty recently.

[Elbirn]

Now now pine, let aj speak for himself. When you premature ejaculate conclusions like that it kinda fucks with my funky flow.

[Aj The Epic]

My entire lean on Pine was more PoE than anything else. I stated the day he claimed RB that it was either Sonia or Pine and I don't think Pine suicides the game. I bought Titus' "there's a role cop" idea a little bit too hard but I also have thought Tywin was playing either an awful town game or a fantastic scum game.

[Elbirn]

For reference I've gathered all the final vote counts. Not as nuanced as hyperanalyzing all the vote counts but uhh my philosophy is that this is what's most important so shutup, I will draw conclusions later

Votecount 1.F

Lapsa 9 (Pine, CloudKicker, Titus, Gamma Emerald, Lil Uzi Vert, ssbm_Kyouko, Cabd, Syryana, Alisae)

Nosferatu 3 (Elbirn, xSoniaNevermindx, Lapsa)
Titus 3 (Nero Cain, mozamis, Tywin Lannister)
Alisae 1 (Aj The Epic)
CloudKicker 1 (Nosferatu)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Votecount 2.F

mozamis 8 (Titus, ssbm_Kyouko, Pine, Gamma Emerald, Alisae, Aj The Epic, Nero Cain, Elbirn)

Aj The Epic 3 (Elbirn, Cabd, Tywin Lannister)
Tywin Lannister 1 (xSoniaNevermindx)
Alisae 1 (Nosferatu)

Not Voting 1 (Syryana)

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Syryana will have to respond to a PM from me by night's end or I'll be forced to replace him.

Votecount 3.F

Gamma Emerald 6 (Aj The Epic, Tywin Lannister, Nero Cain, Alisae, xSoniaNevermindx, ssbm_Kyouko)
Tywin Lannister 2 (Gamma Emerald, Pine)
Nero Cain 1 (Titus)

Not Voting 2 (gerryoat, Elbirn)

Votecount 4.F

Nero Cain 5 (gerryoat, Tywin, Sonia, Elbirn, Titus)
Tywin Lannister 2 (Pine, Nero Cain)

Not Voting (Aj)

8 alive, 5 to lynch.

Votecount 5.F

Sonia 4 (Pine, Aj, Tywin, Titus)
Pine 2 (Sonia, Elbirn)
Aj 1 (gerry)

4 to lynch.

Votecount 6.F

Tywin 3 (Pine, Aj, Titus)

Not Voting 2 (Tywin, Elbirn)

3 to lynch.

Votecount 7.F

No Lynch 3 (Elbirn, Titus, Aj)
Aj 1 (Pine)

You all string up no lynch. It turns out he was just a poor, innocent dude who wasn't even a part of your game. I can't believe you would do something like that, you monsters.

48 hours for night, PM me if you want it to be less than that.

[Elbirn]

No, no this all means nothing to me. Nothing I can believe in.

You both were off of nero, the only scum lynch, and otherwise were on like every town lynch together. You're equally scummy in that regard so that doesn't help.

Yeah no I don't have anything fuckit

[Aj The Epic]

My track record is impeccable.

[Elbirn]

Alright aj I went back to see what's up..basically I read back to see what was up with the tywin lynch; if you really did determine that it was either "pine or sonia", then why did you go for a tywin lynch instead?

But it doesn't even seem like this is what happens.

Daily reminder that if Pine was scum in this gambit, he fully expected not to win.

VOTE: Elbrin

Pine does your role just say RB in title, or 3x RB? Because what the actual fuck was that gambit anyways.

And what is your theory?

That his theory, which requires A.) potential roleblocker and scum Rolecop OR B.) lying scum RB and VT elsewise is heavily just playing a card of 'let's lynch both'. Or, in other words, his theory isn't in any effect a theory, it just plays both sides of the possible coin.

My entire lean on Pine was more PoE than anything else. I stated the day he claimed RB that it was either Sonia or Pine and I don't think Pine suicides the game. I bought Titus' "there's a role cop" idea a little bit too hard but I also have thought Tywin was playing either an awful town game or a fantastic scum game.

So to recap you have pine as town who would never do what I'm proposing he did; you think I'm scummy enough to vote for over my theory that it's pine; now today you're saying it's either "pine or sonia"

Why am I not scum here aj? You've backtracked on your belief that pine doesn't gambit there, and you've backtracked on your belief that I'm scummy for pushing pine/sonia in order to do the same thing?

[Aj The Epic]

No, I never implied Pine WOULDN'T do it, just that he SHOULDN'T EXPECT TO WIN doing it.

Why aren't you scum? I think it's more a number thing than any shining town beacon thing you've done. I don't see town having room for a 3x roleblocker, but that's the exact style of role I'd give scum (or JK, I guess..). My issue with you yesterday was that you went "it's pine or tywin" for two very different reasons. I thought you were talking to Titus as if 'this is foolproof' logic style, which I thought you just played both sides of the coin.

[Elbirn]

Pine I see you online, get in here

[Pine]

I'm in lots of games, Elbirn, and this one doesn't add a dozen pages at a go.

[Pine]

I am leaning towards AJ right now, but I need to do some ISO-diving.

[Pine]

Okay, that was saltier than it needed to be. I can give you some attention. Was there something specific you wanted to discuss while we're both on, Elbirn?

[Elbirn]

I...frankly no I have nothing in mind I just don't want this shit to stall out and be miserable.

Uhm...did you read the above posts? Did I find some logical hole in aj or am I barking up the wrong tree?

Aside from that really saying any words at all will make my heart sing

[Pine]

No, I agree with your logic. I just need to do my own research. See, you'd say all of that whether you were Town or scum. I find in LYLO that it's easier to make the right decision by making a towncase rather than a scumcase.

If you're decided, go for it. It doesn't make a difference to me, from my perspective it's either you or him anyway.

[Elbirn]

Oh I am not decided in the slightest. I'm just trying to get a dialogue going and hope that progress happens. I do think that bit up there is a bit iffy, but town can also come across scummy and self-contradictory and idk

I'll say this, if aj is scum I don't feel he's played a good game; if you're scum, you play a very intricate scumgame and I can respect it.