Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Oman]

1. You won't know if its an SK or not in twilight, I mean, they're not likely to own up are they?

2. I'm hesitant about getting the powerrole to claim when they could be mafia killed overnight, which would WIFOM AlyG.

3. Safest powerrole to claim? I'd say probably cop and the doc can protect them (assuming we have both).

4. I'd like to know who Orig's intended target is today so that we don't have to track him. This also keeps him honest, i.e. if he says he is targeting someone scummy and two really townie people die than he's at fault.

5. I understand if we lynch an SK, but what happens if we lynch town or mafia?

[Oman]

Ignore point one, I was thinking D2 lynch SK Twilight2 Powerrole claims, N2 AlyG tracks etc.

When it should be D2 lynch SK Twilight 3 powerrole claims, N3 AlyG tracks

I don't like this as A) Why doesn't the role just claim first thing that day? B) It lets AlyG live too long with no threat of a lynch. C) if we're wrong we lose days.

[vollkan]

You're right; let me think about this because I know there is some way we can pull this to make it work. If we work at this we can resolve it.

Oman, my first plan was actually really stupid because I forgot that we don't learn the role until AFTER twilight. Hence, my sequence was: Sk lynch --> Role revealed --> Twilight / power role claims --> etc. Completely idiotic and wrong.

Revised plan:
If there is a SK we KNOW that Orig is mafia (I proved this in my previous post).

Therefore, we lynch Orig D3. By default.

The issue, then, is proving AlyG's claim. The other problem I overlooked is that the scumgroup could have 3 members. If that were the case, my plan fails miserably.

The claim thing is useless because if the scum kill the power role, we have no way of verifying AlyG.

[vollkan]

Okay, currently it is either:

A - 6:3,
B - 7:2
C - 6:2:1
D - 5:3:1.

A and B can only be true if Orig is vig. C and D can only be true if Orig is scum.

Lynching the SK today therefore brings it to:
6:2 or 5:3

After 1 NK, D3 opens at:
5:2 or 4:3 (LYLO)

Lynching scum-Orig:
5:1 or 4:2 (LYLO)

After 1 NK, D4 opens at:
4:1 or 3:2 (LYLO)

As we can see, our situation is VERY grim if there is a mafia trio. It means inescapable LYLO for us. Things are much better if it is a duo.

I cannot yet think of a way to dis/prove AlyG.

[Oman]

I'd hate to say it, but mini normals usually contain 3 mafia and an SK/vig. Meaning I bet its A or D and we're pretty much at lylo tomorrow.

Now...I think the best course of action would be to lynch originality based on this theory. Orig is another kill, another kill puts us in LyLo even if we hit scum today (originality is not known for his excellent vig choices). If he's SK it even worse. Based on orig's alignment either dybeck or AlyG (I'd say town heavily implicates Dybeck and scum heavily implicates AlyG).

I know we are likely to be in LyLo, but based on mini trends, we will be no matter what.

Unvote vote originality

Oh and yes vollkan, your first plan sucked .

[vollkan]

I'd hate to say it, but mini normals usually contain 3 mafia and an SK/vig. Meaning I bet its A or D and we're pretty much at lylo tomorrow.

In Mini 467 ( a game I was in), there were 2 mafia, SK and no vig. I don't know whether 3 mafia and 1 SK is more likely, but 2 is a possiblity nonetheless.

Now...I think the best course of action would be to lynch originality based on this theory. Orig is another kill, another kill puts us in LyLo even if we hit scum today (originality is not known for his excellent vig choices). If he's SK it even worse. Based on orig's alignment either dybeck or AlyG (I'd say town heavily implicates Dybeck and scum heavily implicates AlyG).

Woah hang on...lthink about this for one second.

Orig targeted Carrot, right. Why would the SK go for Carrot? Carrot was attacking somebody else. There is no logical reason for the SK to kill Carrot. As such, I think it more likely that Orig is mafia than SK. If that is the case, then killing mafia-Orig will take it to
6:1:1 or 5:2:1
That means two NKs still. Which means D3 is:

6:0:0 (win!), 5:1:0, 5:0:1 or 4:1:1 (wcs)
If the wcs were to arise:
If we mislynch, the possible D4s are 3:0:0 (awesome), 2:1:0 (LYLO), 2:0:1 (LYLO) or 1:1:1 (yuck).
Lynch of scum will mean D4 is 3:0:1 (LYLO)
Lynch of SK will mean D4 is 3:1:0 (LYLO)

or, for the 5:2:1
5:1:0 (best), 4:2:0 (LYLO), 4:1:1 (wcs above) or 3:2:1
If the 3:2:1 arose:

a mislynch would, in worst-case, cause a ratio of 0:2:1 (ie. mafia wins). We would need to vote for a scum and be joined by the SK to gain a majority of 4 out of 6 so that we could lynch 1 scum, which could have D4 opening with 3:1:0 (best), 2:1:1, 2:2:0 (mafia wins) or 0:2:1 (worst, mafia wins).

All in all, since Orig is unlikely the SK, we know the paths that can arise if he is mafia.

If Orig is the vig, then we likely have 6:3.
That means that a mislynch (ie. lynching vig-Orig) today puts us in LYLO tomorrow.

[Oman]

We're pretty much in LyLo anyway, and yes I am assuming 3 scum cause we can go in circles looking at possibilities but I'm looking at likelyhood.

Also: SK would have target Carrotcake as carrotcake would not have implemented them at all, that is, there was no danger due to the kill. Mafia look for dangerous townies cause they can afford to lose a member due to NK link, the SK can't. Also, was carrotcake really scummy enough for you to say it was right to vig him.

[vollkan]

Okay, if we lynch Orig and he is the vig, then our D3 is:
4:3 LYLO.

If we lynch Orig (or anyone) and he is SK, then our wcs D3 is:
4:3 LYLO. Of course, if someone else is the SK, then we know Orig is scum, which takes us to 4:2 LYLO. If we get it right again, we move to 4:1 NOT LYLO.

If we lynch Orig (or anyone) and he is mafia then our wcs D3 is:
3:2:1 See my previous post for the yucky consequences of this. Basically a scum win most likely.

In short, our best bet is to lynch the SK. I feel confident AlyG is not the SK, her actions are either mafia or tracker.

Also: SK would have target Carrotcake as carrotcake would not have implemented them at all, that is, there was no danger due to the kill. Mafia look for dangerous townies cause they can afford to lose a member due to NK link, the SK can't. Also, was carrotcake really scummy enough for you to say it was right to vig him.

I don't understand you here. Are you saying that SK-Orig would kill Carrot?

[Oman]

Yes I am, an SK doesn't want attention...period (his claim also indicates something about this). Orig got pretty lurky today, and carrotcake didn't really point to anyone (someone linked to AlyG, but I hardly buy that).

I'm saying no SK would kill someone scummy if there was a someone they could kill and get away with it. The thing that really gets me is this: How scummy is carrotcake, really? And if thats his choice of targets, can we afford to give him another kill?

[Oman]

Oman's interesting notes on a late night re-read

Warning, severly under the influence of vodka

All post numbers are individual's rather than whole game counts.

Vote: originality

Carrots first is attacking orig

Carrot's second is explaining quote tags

Carrot's third is explaining future absence

Carrot's fourth is discussing my size 1 writing, saying I look town, and discussing

Carrot's fifth is discussing/building a case on AlyG

Carrot's sixth defends Blackstrike. This post (230 for reference) looks very townie to me (merely pointing out lack of scumtells). There is only one possible scumtell here "Lets just hang him tomorrow." Which isn't really a protwon statement, however, it is a drop in the ocean of scumtells out there.

Carrot's seventh is anti-LAL.

Thats it.

So tell me orig, what exactly was so scummy about carrotcake?

Also I'd like to point out that the fact that carrotcake was attacking AlyG makes this seem even more of a scumgambit to me ("I'll claim tracker, bus you and I'm clear, better yet, you claim vig and we're both off")

I could be wrong, as I could be drunken.

Carrot's seventh hits AlyG a bit.

[vollkan]

And if thats his choice of targets, can we afford to give him another kill?

If we lynch vig-Orig, D3 opens at wcs 4:3 LYLO.
If we lynch SK-Orig D3 opens at wcs 4:3 LYLO.
If we lynch maf-Orig D3 opens at wcs 3:2:1. (yuck)

If mislynch someone who is not Orig and Orig is SK, D3 wcs is 2:3:1 (yuck)
If mislynch someone who is not Orig and Orig is maf, D3 wcs is 2:3:1 (basically scum win)
If mislynch someone who is not Orig and Orig is vig, D3 wcs is 3:3 LOSS (if Orig screws up again). If Orig doesn't shoot: 4:3 LYLO. If Orig succeeds: 4:2 LYLO.

If we lynch non-Orig mafia and Orig is SK, D3 wcs is 3:2:1 (yuck)
If we lynch non-Orig mafia and Orig is vig, D3 wcs is 3:2 LYLO (with mis-vig). If no-vig shot then 4:2 LYLO. If successful vig-shot then 3:1 LYLO.
If we lynch non-Orig SK, meaning Orig is maf D3 wcs is: 4:3 LYLO

Good grief...It looks like there are no advantages ANYWHERE without relying on help from maf or SK.

[Oman]

On your last point, never, ever, ever rely on help from another faction. Their win condition is different to yours, and the only actions they can take are those to further said condition.

Basically, we're not in a good spot.

The best bet is to lynch orig (i say it again) the guy is a confirmed killer, which means if we don't lynch him WCS he loses the game for us and BCS we are still in Lylo.

I'm just playing the numbers now as the two other main suspects, Dybeck and AlyG will not give us such a bad ratio if left alive (maybe if dybeck is the SK instead of orig [however the vig claim would be deadly by originality there, thus unlikely]) but we can't confirm today that dybeck has a killing role.

Maybe AlyG should track him Tonight?

[vollkan]

Maybe AlyG should track him Tonight?

Yes.

As such,

Vote: Originality

If he is scum, then we are in lylo or 3:2:1. If he is vig we are in LYLO.

[vollkan]

Edits:- That yes was to AlyG tracking dybeck
AND that should be 3:2:1 in wcs. It could be better than 3:2:1, but we can't bank on that.

[vollkan]

And... I forgot to unvote

Unvote, Vote: Originality

[Oman]

Maybe AlyG should track him Tonight?

Yes.

As such,

Vote: Originality

If he is scum, then we are in lylo or 3:2:1. If he is vig we are in LYLO.

IF HE'S SK WE'RE IN F'R:THREE LYLOU

[vollkan]

IF HE'S SK WE'RE IN F'R:THREE LYLOU

That's what I meant by "lylo". It will be 4:3 in wcs (5:2 in bcs).

[Oman]

ZOMG! Either are LyLo!

We can still win in LyLo though.

[vollkan]

5:2 is not LYLO...A mislynch gives 3:2, which is LYLO.

[Oman]

Lol...whoops.

I'm rather drunk disclaimer again.

what does that BCS include? Doc protect etc?

[vollkan]

Not what I was thinking. bcs is where our current setup is 6:2:1 (ie. 2 maf as opposed to 3)

[Oman]

Oh right, you mean best case and worst case in terms of setup not in terms of night actions. The point is still valid (actually perhaps more with your way as it isn't variable based on player actions).

[vollkan]

Oh right, you mean best case and worst case in terms of setup not in terms of night actions. The point is still valid (actually perhaps more with your way as it isn't variable based on player actions).

Yeah; in my previous posts where I list possible starts I accomodate for varying night actions, but my bcs and wcs are based on set up, not night-actions.

[Oman]

Okay, thanks for the confirm.

[vollkan]

Unvote

What the hell am I thinking?

If Orig is a vig, the set-up is 6:3. In other words, a scum lynch today and a vig kill tonight can put as at 6:1. This game is well within our grasp. The constant focus on wcs has distorted things.