Mini 749 - Antarctic Mafia [Game Over]

[DraketheFake]

Gonna have spotty access until about Tuesday, I'm off to Cali to visit a grad school. I imagine I'll get a chance to post up tomorrow night or Saturday afternoon.

Doubt can be a bond as powerful and sustaining as certainty. When you are lost, you are not alone.

Netlava - 1 (Light-kun)
DraketheFake - 1 (FishytheFish)

Not Voting - 7 (Jazzmyn, HowardRoark, Nuwen, Netlava, JereIC, DraketheFake, Looker)

9 alive, 5 to lynch.

-Mod

(Vote Count accurate as of Post 460)

[Fishythefish]

Fishy, in 433 you say you wouldn't have had reason to vote for Freeko if you scum. First off, wifom, no? Secondly, wouldn't the reason be lynching a townie? Not everything has to be part of an intricate strategy.

That isn't what I'm saying. I'm saying that the reason I would have for voting freeko as scum would only apply if I thought he was the scummiest player. I'm certainly not claiming my vote is a towntell, and so wifom doesn't come into it.

As for the reason being lynching a townie; when I voted for freeko, I changed the vote situation from 4 for DDD, 3 for freeko to the other way around. This doesn't get the scum any closer to a lynch on a townie, unless I think that freeko is going to be easier to lynch than DDD; ie. that freeko is scummier than DDD. So yes, as scum I would have had a reason for switching, but only if I genuinely thought freeko was scummier than DDD. In other words, my switch is not useful for telling my alignment.

I have returned from the land of limited access. I'll now be posting more often and providing some actual analysis.

[Fishythefish]

On DraketheFake:
He is very involved in the random vote stage. He makes a joke vote against ZEEnon, who doesn’t get the joke, and DtF carries on pressing. This is all well and good except this:

There's 4 votes, Mr. non (5 if we're using Fishy's math). A claim seems prescient. Maybe even cogent.

Now, normally this could be dismissed completely as part of Drake’s joke/random vote. However, 4 votes is quite a lot at this stage in the game. ZEEnon clearly thought the votes on him were real votes. I think the risk of ZEEnon actually claiming was small, but it was big enough to make Drake’s post unwise for a townie. There’s a possibility that he was scum taking a long shot on getting a claim, and able to easily disown his post as a joke if that happened.

Seems like a slip, because for all intents and purposes I was under the impression that the Mafia would also be penguins. You seem to imply knowledge that they aren't penguins, which would be unfortunate for you, but I think I may have started it by calling everybody "gentlepenguins" so I'll let it go for now.

Funny thing to bother saying- DtF points out a possible slip, but doesn’t call this slip scummy. This paragraph seems simply to be vessel for the claim of town.

DtF also votes DDD in this post- I think his reasoning here is just fine. He continues to attack DDD for a long time- when he mentions other players, it is generally to counter their points.

I do not like the manner of DtF’s switch to freeko. Commenting on my vote here:

You are actively harming your case against DDD.

You read like a scum desperately trying to get a townie lynched, or a hopelessly tunnelled townie.

Ugh. This this this.

But I don't know that I agree with your vote. It seems that both instances are equally likely, and freeko is the sort of hypothetical townie that a scum being wagoned love to have pop up. Which isn't a strike against DDD, obviously, but these sorts of interactions are rarely good for the town unless he really is just a scum playing in a bizarre fashion.

It isn’t clear what makes DtF change his mind about this. He unvotes in the same post, and here his read is that freeko could well be simply a tunnelled townie. His next post, 283 is the only one in which we get any clue about how this read changes. He starts by saying freeko is not player he enjoys playing with. His second point could equally have been made in 276- nothing has changed. The third similarly- freeko had been offering “glittering generalities” for a long time. Nothing has really changed since he read freeko as equally likely a tunnelled townie or scum. Less still changes before DtF finally votes freeko:

No, instead I am perfectly fine with being lynched. Its going to make for a fun D2 with everyone having to explain themselves as to why they voted for me

How much fun is it going to be for you to read the equivalent of 7 other players collectively shrugging their shoulders and pointing to how abrasive and useless you've been all day?

Nothing I do is ever rational.

Vote: freeko

. L-1, etc.

DtF’s first point does nothing to clarify why he no longer thinks freeko is the scum’s dream townie. He doesn’t explain what he dislikes about the second, which I had read as a sarcastic “you never believe that anything I do is rational” from freeko.
My read on this period is a contrived change of position from DtF.

vote: DraketheFake

[Fishythefish]

By the way, a question to any experienced players: in a normal game, how common is it for a serial killer to be able to no kill? This is obviously relevant to testing L-k's claim.
Incidentally, on reflection I no longer support letting L-k choose his own kill. The benefits are marginal, and if L-k is the SK, his interests may not align with ours, particularly over the matter of whether or not he should be shooting at all.

[Looker]

Posting on my phone from the land of limited access.

Fishy, in 433 you say you wouldn't have had reason to vote for Freeko if you scum. First off, wifom, no? Secondly, wouldn't the reason be lynching a townie? Not everything has to be part of an intricate strategy.

Looker, I can't make sense of your 446. Can you clarify?

How do you...

know

...that someone is scum...?

Lurker, I mean, looker:
What?

Jere: Point, Jere!

Fishy to serve.

Clever...

Expect something today or tomorrow.

Still waiting.

Welcome, Netlava! I hope that you can have a good read and jump into the game soon.

@Looker: It's been a week, and I hope for something of quality soon. QFT: JereIC. What is 446 about?

THAT'S what I meant! The humungous post with the humgous words!

Anyway, why isn't anyone voting? You can vote for me if you like. I don't mind.

[Netlava]

Hello

I will read the thread and post sometime today, definitely.

[Netlava]

Well, I promised a post and here it is. Sleep beckons, and tomorrow is another day.

[Netlava]

[Light-kun]

CLAPS* The above post makes me happy. In other words, Penguins=happiness and Orange is obviously a genius for recognizing this first. Moving on:

Fishy, in 433 you say you wouldn't have had reason to vote for Freeko if you scum. First off, wifom, no? Secondly, wouldn't the reason be lynching a townie? Not everything has to be part of an intricate strategy.

That isn't what I'm saying. I'm saying that the reason I would have for voting freeko as scum would only apply if I thought he was the scummiest player. I'm certainly not claiming my vote is a towntell, and so wifom doesn't come into it.

As for the reason being lynching a townie; when I voted for freeko, I changed the vote situation from 4 for DDD, 3 for freeko to the other way around. This doesn't get the scum any closer to a lynch on a townie, unless I think that freeko is going to be easier to lynch than DDD; ie. that freeko is scummier than DDD. So yes, as scum I would have had a reason for switching, but only if I genuinely thought freeko was scummier than DDD. In other words, my switch is not useful for telling my alignment.

I have returned from the land of limited access. I'll now be posting more often and providing some actual analysis.

So... you're saying optimal play for scum is to do exactly as you did. You're vote clearly says you thought he was scummier, but you spend your post avoiding saying to that affect. Intentional or not, my conclusion is your trying to downplay or neglect the fact you thought Freeko was scummier (thus easier to lynch maybe?) because you do not want to appear scummy. This worry makes you look scummy.

On the other hand, most of your post against DtF seems ambiguous and weak, yet, your final conclusion about his swap on Freeko...eh...it has some merit. I would like DTF's response.

Looker:
*pulls out casset, pops it back in*
What?

[Fishythefish]

So... you're saying optimal play for scum is to do exactly as you did. You're vote clearly says you thought he was scummier, but you spend your post avoiding saying to that affect. Intentional or not, my conclusion is your trying to downplay or neglect the fact you thought Freeko was scummier (thus easier to lynch maybe?) because you do not want to appear scummy. This worry makes you look scummy.

Yes, I am saying that the optimal play for both scum and town was to vote for the scummier player, which is what I did.
I hardly thought it was neccessary to state that as town I voted for the scummier player- that is just what townies do. The whole point of my argument has been that all you can draw from the vote analysis is that I thought freeko was scummier than DDD- I am hardly trying to downplay this.

[Looker]

QFT

[Netlava]

Hello, I finished skimming the thread. I'd like to reread some parts more thoroughly before I post who I think is scum. While reading through the thread, I felt that everyone was scummy. Interestingly enough, we had 2 deaths after the first night which I wasn't aware of until reaching the night scene. Thus, I concluded that a SK was likelier than a vig. Add in the fact that DDD and Amish both seemed town to me.

Then Light-Kun claims vig after I conclude that an SK was more likely a vig. Hmm...

Like I said, I want to re-read before I post who I think is scum. I find multiple people scummy, but I subscribe to a policy of just focusing on one person.

I'd also like to note that Light-Kun's playing style is different. I didn't necessarily find it scummy, but not pro-town either. So, really, all signs point to SK, right?

But I need to reread first before I say anything x_x

Also, if Light-Kun is indeed an SK, it may not be optimal to lynch him yet. Just a thought.

[Netlava]

Just to clarify, I DO find some certain persons scummier than Light-Kun, and I suppose lynching these certain unnamed scummier persons may be preferable.

[DraketheFake]

This is all very exciting. I love it when people think that they can fire at will against the V/LA player with weak arguments and barren "analysis."

I can't really be accused of getting the freeko bandwagon going. My vote was for different reasons to all the other votes on him, including my later vote, and is pretty much unrelated to the bandwagon on him. I think you are clouded by hindsight; at the time, freeko was under no kind of pressure, and this is no more an attempt to bandwagon than any other first vote on a player. As I've expressed above, can't see a reason to think that hops from DDD to freeko are particularly scummy votes. The part of my voting pattern most worthy of attention is definitely my vote on DDD. This is the most beneficial vote of the three for scum by far, and merits attention; I suggest you look at the post and other posts I had made on DDD, and decide whether or not you think I justified it sufficiently.

This is such a suspect sentiment. Refusing to admit that adding a fourth vote onto a player pushes the second wagon to the forefront is short-sighted at best, and then to say "I can't be suspicious for this vote, but you should check out my other suspicious vote" is both a decoy and just odd.

As for the reason being lynching a townie; when I voted for freeko, I changed the vote situation from 4 for DDD, 3 for freeko to the other way around. This doesn't get the scum any closer to a lynch on a townie, unless I think that freeko is going to be easier to lynch than DDD; ie. that freeko is scummier than DDD. So yes, as scum I would have had a reason for switching, but only if I genuinely thought freeko was scummier than DDD. In other words, my switch is not useful for telling my alignment.

Trying to claim that changing the balance of votes from the main target all day to a player whose attacks are becoming more and more desperate against that player is not, somehow, the tipping point of the lynch remains a bit silly, and your last sentence doesn't necessarily follow the situation you set up logically.

And then, wonderfully, 452.

He continues to attack DDD for a long time- when he mentions other players, it is generally to counter their points.

You're going to have problems making the second half of that statement stick.

It isn’t clear what makes DtF change his mind about this.

He unvotes in the same post, and here his read is that freeko could well be simply a tunnelled townie. His next post, 283 is the only one in which we get any clue about how this read changes.

Um... yes it is? I bolded the section of the post that made me unvote DDD, and you quoted it: I agreed with your sentiment that he was harming his case against DDD, and then I wrote "this this this." I like how you try and allude to the fact that my 283 only sort of eplxains my position - which I think it does pretty well - and then only link to it.

DtF’s first point does nothing to clarify why he no longer thinks freeko is the scum’s dream townie. He doesn’t explain what he dislikes about the second,

which I had read as a sarcastic “you never believe that anything I do is rational” from freeko.

My read on this period is a contrived change of position from DtF.

I read it differently, which I suppose I thought must have been clear based on my vote.

Speaking of which:

Yes, I am saying that the optimal play for both scum and town was to vote for the scummier player, which is what I did.
I hardly thought it was neccessary to state that as town I voted for the scummier player- that is just what townies do.

The whole point of my argument has been that all you can draw from the vote analysis is that I thought freeko was scummier than DDD

- I am hardly trying to downplay this.

Hmm. I like how this applies to you but doesn't to me.

Vote: Fishythefish

[Fishythefish]

You're going to have problems making the second half of that statement stick.

I'll have another look over that.

Um... yes it is? I bolded the section of the post that made me unvote DDD, and you quoted it: I agreed with your sentiment that he was harming his case against DDD, and then I wrote "this this this." I like how you try and allude to the fact that my 283 only sort of eplxains my position - which I think it does pretty well - and then only link to it.

You misunderstand. Your reason for unvoting DDD is explained; however at this point you think it just as likely freeko is tunnelled townie as scum. You don't explain properly how your position changes from this to freeko being scum.

[Fishythefish]

Hmm. I like how this applies to you but doesn't to me.

Vote: Fishythefish

Note that my reasoning does apply less to you than me; it is less clear that when you switched, the DDD wagon was still a real possibility. However, I'm not saying you are scummy simply because you switched, but because you made a vote without proper justification.
Why the vote? (I'm guessing you didn't think much of my case against you . Other factors?)

[Looker]

::chumps popcorn in anticipation::

[DraketheFake]

I think it's a fairly common scum tactic to single out players that they think won't be able to defend themselves: in this case, literally because I was on limited access. Also, your post 414 rang very badly for me as I mentioned.

[Light-kun]

QFT

What?

::chumps popcorn in anticipation::

What?

DTF, please respond to:

Um... yes it is? I bolded the section of the post that made me unvote DDD, and you quoted it: I agreed with your sentiment that he was harming his case against DDD, and then I wrote "this this this." I like how you try and allude to the fact that my 283 only sort of eplxains my position - which I think it does pretty well - and then only link to it.

You misunderstand. Your reason for unvoting DDD is explained; however at this point you think it just as likely freeko is tunnelled townie as scum. You don't explain properly how your position changes from this to freeko being scum.

Also, at this point to let people know what I'm thinking:
If someone else is lynched right now, I will shoot Fishy. (Fishy can redeem himself, but I'm letting my current thoughts be known.)

Also, Nuwen, if the town comes to such a consensus, I will shoot myself.

[Fishythefish]

Netlava; surely a SK would also kill a scummy player? The mafia are much more of a threat to him than the town.
I think that if L-k is SK, and will follow our suggestions of kills in the hope of winning, then it is definitely not beneficial to lynch him yet.

[JereIC]

I want to take a second pass at the last two-three pages before posting on them and making overall conclusions, but here's some posts I took interest in. This review focuses on DtF and Fishy, but I have some notes on other players that I need to develop before posting.

97: DtF’s claim that he thought the mafia would be other penguins feels forced now. The theme says there are predators after the penguin colony, there are bloody bodies near the water’s edge, and mentions penguins have vision problems to cover for why the town can’t see predators and a hunter in its midst.

101: Fishy basically repeats the conclusions DtF made about Nuwen and Z in 97. However, he says he thought the mafia are predators.

143: Fishy seems to be defending DtF and Z (slip is irrelevant, Z’s overreation is not scummy), says DDD’s vote on Z was scummy, then votes freeko.

185: Fishy going after DDD while still voting for Freeko.

189: DtF agreeing with Fishy on the DDD vote.

212: Fishy joins the DDD wagon.

220: DtF’s post seems very assertive, but I don’t think he’s making a strong point. He says parts of DDD’s posts are nonsense, that he despises “soft” role-claims, and that DDD’s response to pacman’s comment about walls of text was cute.

231: Fishy is telling freeko to respond to DDD’s 225, while still voting for DDD.

234: DtF does the same thing as Fishy in 231.

237: DtF suddenly changes course and accuses DDD of tunneling on freeko.

253: Fishy defending DDD while still voting for him.

271: Fishy now voting for freeko, but based on an argument that he’s either scum or a tunnel-vision townie.

277: I’ve said this before, but I’m really suspicious of HowardRoark’s case against me, starting with this post. On the other hand, it’s hard to be objective about this stuff. See also 284, 285, 293, 294, 296-300, 346-7 (diverting the question to DtF), 349, and 351.

283: DtF uses the same kind of loud but empty arguments he used against DDD in 220.

354: DtF is calling attention to Z’s play. Feels very unlikely that they’re scumbuddies. There wasn’t a lot of suspicion towards Z at the end of day 1, so I doubt DtF would risk calling attention to him just to have his replacement behave better.

390: Don’t like Fishy’s resistance to Nuwen’s plan. If Vig-kun gets blocked, that gives us info too – that the mafia has a roleblocker, and that they used it to prevent a vig kill, either to buy some time for a scumbuddy or making a townie look guilty for a mislynch.

429 and beyond: I haven’t read very closely.

454: We know they’re scum when the mod says so. On an tangential rant, I’m tired of every game of mafia turning into a discussion on the mechanics of mafia. I don't think it's a scum-tell, but talking about how to play distracts from actually playing.

457-8: What makes this game even better is the town are Adelie penguins, the cutest animal possible. Not just in the sense of being the cutest animal in existence, but there is no possible way to make them cuter. Mathematically speaking, they are the global maximum of the cuteness function.

I'm a little surprised that no one has suggested killing us all (DtF, Fishy, and me) and letting mod sort it out. Assuming two of us are scum, then sacrificing a suspicious-looking townie would be worth it. If there's two scum total, then we kill them both and win. If there's three scum total, then we go into the last day with one scum and two or three pro-town players (depending on if we have Vig-kun strike night after next), and it will be easier to find the last scum.

However, if only one of us is scum, and there's three scum total, then killing all three of us screws town. The doc would have to get lucky for the town to win.

[Looker]

what?

[DraketheFake]

I'm a little surprised that no one has suggested killing us all (DtF, Fishy, and me) and letting mod sort it out. Assuming two of us are scum, then sacrificing a suspicious-looking townie would be worth it. If there's two scum total, then we kill them both and win. If there's three scum total, then we go into the last day with one scum and two or three pro-town players (depending on if we have Vig-kun strike night after next), and it will be easier to find the last scum.

However, if only one of us is scum, and there's three scum total, then killing all three of us screws town. The doc would have to get lucky for the town to win.

Did... did you just claim scum?

Why wouldn't you just advocate what is supposedly implied by your "plan," which is that both Fishy and I are scum? I mean, you

are

trying to help the town in theory here, right? Which you'd only do if you were town? So if you think there's a decent enough chance that two of the three of us are scum, and you're town acting in the town's interest, then you think that Fishy and I are scum, right? Why not just post your analysis and say that? Did you think you'd engender good will by volunteering to be killed along with us?

I've begun to get the sinking feeling that the active players in this game are, for the most part, townies, and that the serious lurkers are skating by on perfunctory posts while we argue ourselves into the ground. I'm still reasonably happy with my vote on Fishy, but the way he's responding is giving me pause, and the way Netlava came in and wanted to go back in the L-k direction doesn't seem all that useful to me at best. I'll do a lurker round-up soon, possibly as soon as right away since my flight back home is delayed.

[HowardRoark]

I don't care for Fishythefish's explanations. I still believe that his voting was opportunistic.

Even more troubling to me is Looker's play. He replaced na85 who didn't really stand out D1.

vote Looker

@JerIC: I had a weird read of you. You gave me some responses. I didn't have anything further against you. I cannot answer your question on how my misunderstanding, once understood, could be used against you. I had no intent or reason to pursue it further.

I'm a little surprised that no one has suggested killing us all (DtF, Fishy, and me) and letting mod sort it out. Assuming two of us are scum, then sacrificing a suspicious-looking townie would be worth it.

I am a bit confused by this. You are either claiming scum or you are a "suspicious-looking townie".

However, if only one of us is scum, and there's three scum total, then killing all three of us screws town.

This doesn't really help your case, IMHO.

I've begun to get the sinking feeling that the active players in this game are, for the most part, townies, and that the serious lurkers are skating by on perfunctory posts while we argue ourselves into the ground.

I agree. Thus my current vote.

[Looker]

vote Looker

What?