Mini 559 - Cult Mafia again - Game over


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Post Post #425 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:57 am

Post by XReyoX »

BM-

I think you might want to check if your scumdar has the newest driver installed, after being so determined to lynch OMG and accussing elias of being his scumbuddy.
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Post Post #426 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:04 am

Post by Xtoxm »

I am basically continuing on from yesterday. I thought OMG was quite clearly town, and Blazerunner was looking very much like newbie town, which is reasonable for the scum to get rid of early.

Another question to think about - Who is likely to have been a target for the cult's recruit? I think Elias was considered scummy enough for him to be out. I don't think a recruit of a newer player is at all likely. Were I recruiter I know i'd want to go after one of the most experienced players in the game. Our best hope is that the recruiter hit a scum or town power role.

Ofcourse, this question only works perfectly if the cult recruiter is none of us alive. But I think the target would have fallen on one of Oman, BM, XReyoX. Reyo because of the large activity, Oman BM cause they are the pro's around here.
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Post Post #427 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:05 am

Post by Elias_the_thief »

Bah. Go town. Also, i told ya so.
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Post Post #428 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:18 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Xtoxm wrote:I am basically continuing on from yesterday. I thought OMG was quite clearly town, and Blazerunner was looking very much like newbie town, which is reasonable for the scum to get rid of early.
So how does this make me scum?
Xtoxm wrote: Another question to think about - Who is likely to have been a target for the cult's recruit? I think Elias was considered scummy enough for him to be out. I don't think a recruit of a newer player is at all likely. Were I recruiter I know i'd want to go after one of the most experienced players in the game. Our best hope is that the recruiter hit a scum or town power role.

Ofcourse, this question only works perfectly if the cult recruiter is none of us alive. But I think the target would have fallen on one of Oman, BM, XReyoX. Reyo because of the large activity, Oman BM cause they are the pro's around here.
I was thinking this too actually, but then realised that it was pointless to speculate as killing a recruit is pretty pointless atm.
I cant see anyone recruiting Xreyox looking objectively, because his play hasnt exactly been spotless.
As far as experience goes, Norinel far exceeds either me or Oman. If i recall, so does Dahen.

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Post Post #429 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:34 am

Post by XReyoX »

I agree that there is no point in speculating who has been recruited for now. There is roughly 50% chance that the leader couldn't recuit anyone last night.
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Post Post #430 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:51 am

Post by Xtoxm »

I didn't realise dahen was an experienced player, I was thinking the opposite. That's quite interesting.

Yes, you are right about recruits, now I think about it. And the odds of failure are not bad either.
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Post Post #431 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:07 am

Post by Pink Puppy »

Xtoxm wrote:There has been much discussion about town power roles...Notice also that the scum have a power role. How about some ideas on that? Is it just a GF, what kind of things might we expect from it?
The rules say a mafia power role is POSSIBLE. Not that we definitely have one.

Why are you assuming we have one?
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Post Post #432 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:17 am

Post by Battle Mage »

:good posting:
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Post Post #433 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:25 am

Post by Xtoxm »

Pink Puppy wrote:
Xtoxm wrote:There has been much discussion about town power roles...Notice also that the scum have a power role. How about some ideas on that? Is it just a GF, what kind of things might we expect from it?
The rules say a mafia power role is POSSIBLE. Not that we definitely have one.

Why are you assuming we have one?
I didn't realise it was only possible, I checked the first post earlier today and saw the "sample mafia power role" thing and thought that meant there was one.
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Post Post #434 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:41 am

Post by Pink Puppy »

curiouskarmadog wrote:
The Setup

(also mostly ripped off from Guardian)


The game is a mostly open setup. There are exactly 3 different factions in this game: a Cult (one person to start),
a 2 man Mafia team (possibly with power roles)
, and a T (with 2-4 poweroles).
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Post Post #435 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:57 am

Post by Xtoxm »

Yeh. Well my question is still relevant.
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Post Post #436 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 4:52 pm

Post by Norinel »

BM wrote:As far as experience goes, Norinel far exceeds either me or Oman. If i recall, so does Dahen.
Do keep in mind that I'm coming off a lengthy hiatus. (This is my first game playing since I think May, though I finished off some stuff I was modding/MishMashing before I declared myself gone)

As far as the mafia power role things goes, don't all the standard ones only mess around with the town power roles anyway? (GF only makes a difference if there's a cop/vig, roleblocker only interferes with power roles, framer makes life harder for the cop) With only a handful of town roles total, and none of them outed yet except the vig, I don't see why speculation does much good. It'd probably just do more to expose the power roles.
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Post Post #437 (ISO) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 4:05 am

Post by Pink Puppy »

Norinel wrote:As far as the mafia power role things goes, don't all the standard ones only mess around with the town power roles anyway? (GF only makes a difference if there's a cop/vig, roleblocker only interferes with power roles, framer makes life harder for the cop) With only a handful of town roles total, and none of them outed yet except the vig, I don't see why speculation does much good. It'd probably just do more to expose the power roles.
True, I don't see what speculating on mafia power roles can accomplish. Nothing good for town.

Good things for mafia though, xToxm.
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Post Post #438 (ISO) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 4:11 am

Post by curiouskarmadog »

will be prodding shortly
NO YOU'RE OVER DEFENSIVE
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Post Post #439 (ISO) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 4:52 am

Post by Xtoxm »

Norinel wrote:
BM wrote:As far as experience goes, Norinel far exceeds either me or Oman. If i recall, so does Dahen.
Do keep in mind that I'm coming off a lengthy hiatus. (This is my first game playing since I think May, though I finished off some stuff I was modding/MishMashing before I declared myself gone)

As far as the mafia power role things goes, don't all the standard ones only mess around with the town power roles anyway? (GF only makes a difference if there's a cop/vig, roleblocker only interferes with power roles, framer makes life harder for the cop) With only a handful of town roles total, and none of them outed yet except the vig, I don't see why speculation does much good. It'd probably just do more to expose the power roles.
I guess you are right, hadn't thought about that.
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Post Post #440 (ISO) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 6:33 am

Post by Pink Puppy »

Then what was your point in asking? What did you hope to accomplish?
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Post Post #441 (ISO) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 6:49 am

Post by Xtoxm »

Pink Puppy wrote:Then what was your point in asking? What did you hope to accomplish?
I thought it was a good idea.
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Xtoxm is consistently great - Shosin
you were the only wolf i townread at endgame - the worst
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Post Post #442 (ISO) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 9:44 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Pink Puppy wrote:
Norinel wrote:As far as the mafia power role things goes, don't all the standard ones only mess around with the town power roles anyway? (GF only makes a difference if there's a cop/vig, roleblocker only interferes with power roles, framer makes life harder for the cop) With only a handful of town roles total, and none of them outed yet except the vig, I don't see why speculation does much good. It'd probably just do more to expose the power roles.
True, I don't see what speculating on mafia power roles can accomplish. Nothing good for town.

Good things for mafia though, xToxm.
wait. what? :shock:

How does discussing mafia power roles benefit the mafia? 0.o

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Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #443 (ISO) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 10:12 am

Post by Friend of Old »

I don't like this recent play from Xtoxm, it doesn't seem scummy in particular but it seems almsot as if he's talking just for the sake of talking, making weak points and letting the flow carry him along.

So we are assuming that Elias was a vig kill, thus we can also assume that the person who killed him was convinced of his guilt. Speculation of this however will only give the scum a target, so I suggest we leave it well enough alone. However we should keep this in mind whilst pointing fingers about today.

The death of Blazerunner seems to me like the mafia is playing it safe, I wouldn't say that Blaze stood out as town or scum yesterday and his posting was often overshadowed by others.

Further analysis may come with a re-read, however I doubt that we can garner much from the first few pages as there was little meat there, that came after the various replacements.
The [i]FoO[/i] is watching...
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Post Post #444 (ISO) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 12:10 pm

Post by Pink Puppy »

Battle Mage wrote:
Pink Puppy wrote:
Norinel wrote:As far as the mafia power role things goes, don't all the standard ones only mess around with the town power roles anyway? (GF only makes a difference if there's a cop/vig, roleblocker only interferes with power roles, framer makes life harder for the cop) With only a handful of town roles total, and none of them outed yet except the vig, I don't see why speculation does much good. It'd probably just do more to expose the power roles.
True, I don't see what speculating on mafia power roles can accomplish. Nothing good for town.

Good things for mafia though, xToxm.
wait. what? :shock:

How does discussing mafia power roles benefit the mafia? 0.o

BM
In the way of outing pro-town power roles through clues someone might drop in discussion.

Do you think discussion potential power roles can benefit town? I mean, I'm happy to be proven wrong....
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Post Post #445 (ISO) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 12:46 pm

Post by Xtoxm »

I was going to claim when the day started, then I remember something about mafia have a power role, I checked back the first post and indeed it was there.

I aksed about mafia power roles cause I became worried about the possible prescence of a mafia RB.

But I think the mafia have me figured by now anyways, I stated strong suspicions of Elias I was the only one other than OMG to do so, i'm the vig.

Suspicion is coming my way I figure best to just get the claim out there. Give the mafia a bit of a choice about whether to risk a doctor being in the game to.

Sorry about my seeminly lazy approach, knowing you can clear yourself seems to have that effect. It's a first for me.
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Post Post #446 (ISO) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 4:03 pm

Post by GhostWriter »

Okay, I'm going to chime in here with what I've gathered so far, after a rough read through of previous pages after our three confirmations. I won't be able to make any heavier posts until about Sunday. I may be able to drop a post here and there around midnight of Friday and Saturday, but that's it (got two back-to-back competitions and a college term paper to turn in next week as well). Right now, I've got to say that I'm getting some strong pro-town vibes from Pink Puppy. There's just something that I'm sensing. However, my gut also gives me bad signals from FoO, which doesn't make sense. He's been nailing his posts pretty damn well so far. But I just can't shake this feeling I have about him...
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Post Post #447 (ISO) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:48 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

Pink Puppy wrote:
Battle Mage wrote:
Pink Puppy wrote:
Norinel wrote:As far as the mafia power role things goes, don't all the standard ones only mess around with the town power roles anyway? (GF only makes a difference if there's a cop/vig, roleblocker only interferes with power roles, framer makes life harder for the cop) With only a handful of town roles total, and none of them outed yet except the vig, I don't see why speculation does much good. It'd probably just do more to expose the power roles.
True, I don't see what speculating on mafia power roles can accomplish. Nothing good for town.

Good things for mafia though, xToxm.
wait. what? :shock:

How does discussing mafia power roles benefit the mafia? 0.o

BM
In the way of outing pro-town power roles through clues someone might drop in discussion.

Do you think discussion potential power roles can benefit town? I mean, I'm happy to be proven wrong....
no, im just saying that i think you trying to paint it as anything other than an inexperience tell, is suspicious.

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Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #448 (ISO) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 10:24 pm

Post by XReyoX »

I agree with pinkpuppy that discussing potential Mafia PRs doesn't really benefit the town much. However, I don't see talking about it is much of a scumtell at this point. The best would be to ask people to be more carefull no to drop clues about their roles.

so Xtoxm, you viged elias last night?
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Post Post #449 (ISO) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 10:54 pm

Post by Oman »

Okay, if we look at this at face value (the vig will kill Xtom tonight if he is fakeclaiming) and say that Xtom is a powerrole, he is NOT CULT. This is big, we have one guarenteed non-cultist. Meaning that even though vig is a dicey role in this game (I know I was the vig last game).

I say we are at a very interesting decision here.

let 1 townpowerrole = doc:

Let Xtoxm = Vigilantee -> obviously protecting him from night kills is the best move as we have a confirmed townie with no cult-ableness.

Let Xtoxm = Scum -> obviously the vig will try to kill him, but the doc should protect him (see Xtoxm = vigilantee).

Thus, I think that contrary to standard vig play any vigilantee should counterclaim now, if not, we should accept that Xtoxm IS town.
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