Mini 1085: Higurashi Mafia Game Over!

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I didn't say chat did I? >.<

I did. Great.

I meant thread. Topic. Game. Whatever. You know what I meant.

I'm too damn tired. :@

[UncertainKitten]

Meh. Just filing it away. It's kinda rare for those to *actually* be scum slips, so I'm not going to suddenly assume you are scum because you misspoke.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Oh, so that's what you meant.

I was /wondering/ why you focused in on that.

[UncertainKitten]

Well, it would have been interesting if you were chatting to City about fakeclaims. Though I'm also aware of the post you made in this thread.

It probably doesn't bear consideration. I just found it interesting.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Possibility: Does anyone else think that maybe the scum faction hasn't been created yet?

Rather, that scum can't kill until a certain counterpart dies?

This would make sense of the lack of kills (the N1 kill being performed by Miyo Takano).

Really and honestly, I'm trying to understand the lack of deaths in this game so far. RB's and doctors are fine and dandy, but that can't account for 3 out of four factional kills MISSING.

1 out of 2, I could understand. But 3/4 is beyond that.

By no means is this to be taken as a solid theory, based on facts. I'm speculating. Trying to think of ways in which the facts presented work out.

If you take an Occam's Razor approach, we just lynch UK and that should be the end of it. Simplest Explanation.

But this is a bastard mod, so I'm thinking maybe outside the box is better. If we are to believe UK, there is already some kind of faction that can make other people kill for them. This alone makes me think that even my wildest theories are plausible.

It is my belief that we will get the furthest with this line of thought. We need to understand what is happening to stop these night kills (if they exist ATM).

[UncertainKitten]

To be honest? There are a lot of explanations.

Let's say City were scum. Do you think it would be worth forgoing a kill to secure a tracker lynch? I personally could see taking that opportunity. If we add in an SK, which is by no means certainly here, City's hypothetical scum team STILL wouldn't lost a lot of tempo and virtually guarantee a mislynch that would win them the game.

To be honest, that theory makes a lot of sense...

Admittedly, that makes the SK the spiriter of awayness and the Enemy Mine user. Which again, would work for Takano flavor.

Though then we're missing an N1 kill and an N2 SK kill. It is entirely possible N1 just got doctored. It becomes a lot more confusing otherwise and I'm not sure I want to tangle with those thoughts yet. N2 SK kill...could again be doctor, sure. The problem is, with the andrew kill, I expect the SK is acting like a vig...

Of course, that opens up another possibility. Recognizing that their kill would put us in pure lylo, which is BAD for an SK unless they are damn certain of shooting scum, they perhaps forwent their kill as well, leading to an unexpected situation for City scum's team.

I'm going to admit I have a lot of confirmation bias here for City scum, but I'm not even sure if there are any good alternate theories. Please, help me out here, even if you have to assume me scum to come up with something. I want ideas out here.

[UncertainKitten]

OH! Another possibility! Perhaps ONLY Rena could kill for the SK, and without Rena, the SK actually loses their kill.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

OH! Another possibility! Perhaps ONLY Rena could kill for the SK, and without Rena, the SK actually loses their kill.

You're forgetting that I have name verified this SK for you, as Miyo Takano. (Assuming you believe that)

That flavor doesn't match.

At this point... my role would suggest the SK as compulsive, UK. /softclaim

So... there HAD to be something stopping Takano last night. Mafia could for go their kill... but why? If they really were aiming to gun you down as the lynch today, they'd be able to do it with or without having killed someone. Them making a kill doesn't affect how I would see your allignment.

So.... considering this, I'm still lost.

[UncertainKitten]

Oh, the reason they'd forgo the kill is for the reason you suggested. So City over there could frame me. "I blocked her, there was no kill, SHE IS CLEARLY MAFIA!"

And they had a nice crack to seep through to do it in. My stupid error on D2.

As for the SK, alright, then let's go back to the doctor assumption. That's virtually required at this point.

Also...how can you have a compulsive SK in a game where if a night action isn't sent in, it's lost?

[UncertainKitten]

Additionally? City doesn't even need to be the roleblocker. He'd be expendable, since people have suspected him. So if for some reason I AM able to escape their trap, the only thing they lose is someone who was a likely lynch at some point *anyway*, and their gain if they succeed is...winning the game.

If the SK had successfully killed, that is.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Also...how can you have a compulsive SK in a game where if a night action isn't sent in, it's lost?

I'm probably wrong about this... but from what I've read, doesn't think go down as the mod randomizing a kill for the player?

[UncertainKitten]

It could. I haven't done compulsive roles, but I DO randomize night actions not sent in (though I accept no action as a submission).

Alright, fine, I'll even grant you that. We now basically REQUIRE a doctor for any theorizing to work or something is incredibly fucked up. (Which, incidentally, makes it even less likely that City is a town RB, since that's a LOT of power to give town).

[SpyreX]

I see a lot of flavor talk and that makes me mad.

UK, you're going up the rope today. Get out everything useful you can.

Additionally, I'm starting to get REALLY worried about Tuminesence. I'll say nothing else about my role for now but I DO have access to a QT with them and they have said more there than here (and both amount to nothing).

[UncertainKitten]

If I'm getting rope, SpyreX, then why aren't you voting me?

It'd only put me at L-2, and it'd make you look a lot more convicted in your determination to lynch me. That said I'll try to get one of those dreaded *lists* out tonight with reads on everyone. I have DnD this afternoon and a bullshit clusterfuck of dishes to do this morning.

[TheLonging]

I read everything up to this quote and I feel like I don't need to comment on it, besides saying that CityofAs is only thinking 1 way, which is CLEARLY good in mafia.

I have two problems with your vote CoA.

Firstly, your claim is weird. Suddenly outing yourself as a ONE-SHOT RB, and telling us that you HAPPENED to target UK.

I targeted UK because of what happened yesterday, which struck me as very scummy.

Flavor: My character is Hojo Satoko. I'm not sure who that is (I don't know the story) but the roleblock flavor is setting traps for people. I can only set one because the land has limited resources.

Well if UK was scum, her gambit would have fallen apart. However, she has brought forth a legitimate theory. You have only thought "Well, it couldn't be any other possibility besides YOU being scum!" Slight exaggeration there but my point is clear.

Flavor only would make sense in the sense that Satoko could only set out one trap. In the anime there certainly wasn't limited resources, she made do with ANYTHING. Limited resources, really? If you were full time RB, this would be completely understandable, but... no, I don't buy it.

Interesting...

That flavor is correct... but not something you couldn't have learned (thanks to my stupidity).

I said in chat that Satoko was known for laying traps. This could easily be a formulated fake claim.

I still don't like it. And I don't see how a trap=RB.

IGMEOY

P-Edit: UK, remember when I posted all that flavor shit? Satoko's traps was in there.

Also why I think his claim is BS.

A)

Possibility: Does anyone else think that maybe the scum faction hasn't been created yet?

Rather, that scum can't kill until a certain counterpart dies?

B)

This would make sense of the lack of kills (the N1 kill being performed by Miyo Takano).

Really and honestly, I'm trying to understand the lack of deaths in this game so far. RB's and doctors are fine and dandy, but that can't account for 3 out of four factional kills MISSING.

1 out of 2, I could understand. But 3/4 is beyond that.

By no means is this to be taken as a solid theory, based on facts. I'm speculating. Trying to think of ways in which the facts presented work out.

C)

If you take an Occam's Razor approach, we just lynch UK and that should be the end of it. Simplest Explanation.

D)

But this is a bastard mod, so I'm thinking maybe outside the box is better. If we are to believe UK, there is already some kind of faction that can make other people kill for them. This alone makes me think that even my wildest theories are plausible.

E)

It is my belief that we will get the furthest with this line of thought. We need to understand what is happening to stop these night kills (if they exist ATM).

A) Only assuming Miyo is SK. Which you are assuming.
B) I don't get it too. If there is an SK like you said, then missing kills are making no sense. We could sit around here and speculate further, but we won't get that far. It is confusing. Though I have to ask, are you ABSOLUTELY 100% sure that Miyo is SK?
C) Occam's Razor (I just had to look that up to remember what it meant) is a tricky ground to walk on. It's more WIFOM then anything, and besides,
D) this IS a bastard game, so we can't automatically assume that.
E) So you're saying... we should only think that way?

To be honest? There are a lot of explanations.

A)

Let's say City were scum. Do you think it would be worth forgoing a kill to secure a tracker lynch? I personally could see taking that opportunity. If we add in an SK, which is by no means certainly here, City's hypothetical scum team STILL wouldn't lost a lot of tempo and virtually guarantee a mislynch that would win them the game.

To be honest, that theory makes a lot of sense...

B)

Admittedly, that makes the SK the spiriter of awayness and the Enemy Mine user. Which again, would work for Takano flavor.

Though then we're missing an N1 kill and an N2 SK kill. It is entirely possible N1 just got doctored. It becomes a lot more confusing otherwise and I'm not sure I want to tangle with those thoughts yet. N2 SK kill...could again be doctor, sure. The problem is, with the andrew kill, I expect the SK is acting like a vig...

C)

Of course, that opens up another possibility. Recognizing that their kill would put us in pure lylo, which is BAD for an SK unless they are damn certain of shooting scum, they perhaps forwent their kill as well, leading to an unexpected situation for City scum's team.

I'm going to admit I have a lot of confirmation bias here for City scum, but I'm not even sure if there are any good alternate theories. Please, help me out here, even if you have to assume me scum to come up with something. I want ideas out here.

A) I think the wording of this is confusing me. It's not really clear.
B) It would, but again, it could just be that night deaths = Spirited Away, etc. The only way I could get through this is if I write down possible actions that COULD have happened in night to explain missing kills, though that wouldn't help too much I think.
C) So you think that SK DIDN'T shoot? Assuming there is an SK.

[TheLonging]

OH! Another possibility! Perhaps ONLY Rena could kill for the SK, and without Rena, the SK actually loses their kill.

I don't even think this makes sense at all.

Additionally, I'm starting to get REALLY worried about Tuminesence. I'll say nothing else about my role for now but I DO have access to a QT with them and they have said more there than here (and both amount to nothing).

ok

what?

anyways

vote: city

[UncertainKitten]

@Longing:

A) I was basically speculating in a questioning sense and it all started to come together. My theory is basically that City's mafia team forwent a kill, knowing there was an SK since they would know they weren't responsible for Andrew's death. Note, this assumes Lady Lambdadelta is telling the truth, but, I have a mostly town read on her so I have no reason to disbelieve her. I also don't know what she gains by putting an SK out there as scum. But, anyway, City's team assumes the SK will kill, which would leave us with 8 alive today. In exchange, City claims his roleblock, the fact there was only an SK kill, and sets up my mislynch due to the tracker business. If they succeed in getting me lynched, they win. If they don't succeed, they only lose City. Which, honestly, isn't that big a loss.

B) It might help to do in notepad or something, just to have. I don't think it's necessary to post in thread yet.

C) I thought it was possible. Getting to lylo too fast is BAD for an SK. Regardless, apparently this is impossible since LL our SK expert has said such, and if I'm going to accept her SK premise, I have to accept her stating that the SK kill was compulsive.

As for the Rena thing, I'm just trying to think of every possibility.

[UncertainKitten]

Actually, let me amend something. The theoretical City mafia could also have believed the spirit kill was the vig, given their andrew choice N1. And that any N2 kill the SK committed would thusly be an obvious vig kill, so that they could get away with framing me.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I've had enough of this.

I'm calling for a wagon on UK.

I'm not going to be the one who let someone lead a quick lynch on a townie, and then not make them pay for it, only to find out they were scum later in the game.

This claim UK pulled out of nowhere about the "Enemy Mine" ability seems a LITTLE too rehearsed for my liking. Almost like she set up for this situation. She was prepared.

I don't buy it. I want to lynch her, if only to see if this ability is even out there.

But mainly because I find her way of worming out of being lynched a little too rehearsed.

More votes on her please. If you are legit town, I'm sorry UK. You're our best lead, and I'm not going to be the fool who let the

Neutral Inquisitor

Mafia Goon escape.

TL, that City vote is really pointless. I am certain that if UK isn't scum, he is. We'll be able to get him tomorrow. But UK is the lynch for today.

Drench, now is the time to vote her please. Don't hem and haw. She wants you to vote her, show her you're not afraid to do it.

All other town: Vote, thanks. More activity, thanks.

[UncertainKitten]

Feel free then. There isn't a lot I can do. But bear in mind you WILL be in lylo tomorrow. Be prepared for that.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

@UK: I tried to find something else to go on. I really did. No matter how I look at it, you look scummy to me, in 95% of scenarios.

The other 5%, lynching you is still our best option.

The lylo tommorow is easily solved with a CoA lynch. If it even comes. And if I'm right, it won't.

[UncertainKitten]

Lylo remains lylo for the rest of the game. After City, what do you plan to do?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

You forget there is a SK.

Likely, someone's getting killed from an anti-town faction.

Also, I pray that Haylen would give us more than a watcher and a tracker(if you are town) to fight back.

We'll manage.

[UncertainKitten]

There's an SK, sure. Which makes it all the more dangerous to get into lylo. You'll eventually run into a prisoner's dilemma or an outright loss.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

You say this with the assumption you flip town.

I don't think you will.

But assuming you do, we still have a better chance at winning than if we lynched Tumenessence or CityofA for example.

On that note: Exilon, would you mind getting off the lurker? He's not doing anything, which could be scummy... But we have bigger problems.

I'm comfortable taking the risk that you might flip town.

But I doubt it?