Elemental Mafia- Game Over!


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Post Post #400 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 9:22 am

Post by Andycyca »

Dammit! I'm gone for a weekend and I found 2 more innocent bodies! Why are we following such random wagons?
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BTRAF 6 coming to a Mafia Forum near you. Now with 50% less chlorine! Bring your tin foil hat
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Post Post #401 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 9:36 am

Post by elvis_knits »

vote andycyca
Talk nerdy to me.

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Post Post #402 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 9:45 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Vote Count

(3) Armlx: (DGB, Jediknight, Farside)
(2) Macavenger: (Erg0, Ooba)
(2) Cavebear: (Pooky, DoS)
(1) Pooky: (Mneme)
(1) Andycyca: (Elvis Knits)
(11) Not voting: (Andycyca, Cavebear, Roland, Lowell, Kabenon, Kison, Macavenger, Armlx, Muerrto, Korlash, Xtoxm)

20 players alive, means 11 votes to lynch.

BM
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #403 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 10:49 am

Post by Erg0 »

Man, I can't leave you guys alone for a minute.

Looks like I have some heavy reading to do...
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Post Post #404 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 11:59 am

Post by Macavenger »

DGB, can you explain why you want to go after armlx? I'm more inclined to trust your motivations than most people in this game since I'm nearly certain you're not a recruit or SK, but I'm not seeing what armlx has done that's worth going after.
"By far the towniest player in the game. Very good scum hunting, doesn't let anyone off the hook. All in all I find Mac's posts insightful and thought-provoking. " - Vel-Rahn Koon
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Post Post #405 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 12:03 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Macavenger wrote:DGB, can you explain why you want to go after armlx?
I'm not seeing any of the armlx town tells. I figured a bit of pressure might clarify matters.
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

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Post Post #406 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 12:29 pm

Post by Muerrto »

Macavenger wrote:DGB, can you explain why you want to go after armlx? I'm more inclined to trust your motivations than most people in this game since I'm nearly certain you're not a recruit or SK, but I'm not seeing what armlx has done that's worth going after.
Actually I see DGB leading most of these lynches. What town tells are you seeing from her?
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Games - 31
Town - Win=9, Loss=10
Mafia - Win=5, Loss=4
Abondoned = 3

I feel for the rest of the players every time I get a town PM.
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Post Post #407 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 12:47 pm

Post by Macavenger »

Muerrto wrote:
Macavenger wrote:DGB, can you explain why you want to go after armlx? I'm more inclined to trust your motivations than most people in this game since I'm nearly certain you're not a recruit or SK, but I'm not seeing what armlx has done that's worth going after.
Actually I see DGB leading most of these lynches. What town tells are you seeing from her?
I'm not seeing town tells specifically - as I noted in the post you quoted, it's a statistics thing based on my protection last night. I'm not getting town or scum vibes from DGB, and statistically she's less likely to be scum than the many other people I don't have a solid read on. It's not like I trust her implicitly. I would believe someone that I'd picked up specific town tells from over DGB. Unfortunately I haven't been getting solid town vibes from anyone, really. Trying to adjust my standards and such to accommodate the speed of this game has been a bit of a head trip. I should probably do a detailed reread in the next couple days.
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Post Post #408 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 1:00 pm

Post by Cavebear with a toothache »

What is it with townpeople going down
in a blaze of glory
voluntarily rather than claiming? >_>
DragonsofSummer wrote:
unvote, vote Cavebear
Care to provide a reason for that?
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Post Post #409 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 1:03 pm

Post by Muerrto »

Macavenger wrote:I'm not seeing town tells specifically - as I noted in the post you quoted, it's a statistics thing based on my protection last night. I'm not getting town or scum vibes from DGB, and statistically she's less likely to be scum than the many other people I don't have a solid read on.
I'm not saying DGB is scum(cult whatever) but I don't like bad statistics. You jailed her, granted. That means we can assume she's not Wayne.

However, unless your role says if you jail a recruiter it doesn't work, you don't know if she's town or a recruiter that didn't get to recruit. Unless something in your PM says otherwise, she has just as much chance of being scum than town.

Again, not saying I suspect her but I don't like bad logic and people following people blindly.
Show
Games - 31
Town - Win=9, Loss=10
Mafia - Win=5, Loss=4
Abondoned = 3

I feel for the rest of the players every time I get a town PM.
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Post Post #410 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 1:22 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

elvis_knits wrote:
vote andycyca
Why?
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet
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Post Post #411 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 1:41 pm

Post by DragonsofSummer »

At this point it is really just a gut feeling. Your posting so far rubs me the wrong way, but there isn't anything inherently scummy with it. But with rampant lynching going on gut feelings are sometimes the best imo.
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Post Post #412 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 2:12 pm

Post by Muerrto »

I don't like the vote for Bear right after I jokingly suggested it...

FoS: DoS


ah whatever, nowhere near lynch anyway

Vote: DoS


FoS's seem to be pointless atm
Show
Games - 31
Town - Win=9, Loss=10
Mafia - Win=5, Loss=4
Abondoned = 3

I feel for the rest of the players every time I get a town PM.
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Post Post #413 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 2:17 pm

Post by Kison »

Gut feeling is a myth.
What
about her posts rub you the wrong way?
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Post Post #414 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 3:20 pm

Post by Lowell »

I like both the DoS and armlx miniwagons.

vote DoS
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Post Post #415 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 4:29 pm

Post by armlx »

Kison wrote:Gut feeling is a myth.
What
about her posts rub you the wrong way?
Respond to this post please DoS.
Away Wednesday the 24th through the 31st
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Post Post #416 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 8:35 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

unvote

vote DoS


He used "IMO"

thus obv scum

GG no RE
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Post Post #417 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2008 11:22 pm

Post by Cavebear with a toothache »

Kison wrote:Gut feeling is a myth.
What
about her posts rub you the wrong way?
HIS posts. I'm a he. You're the second person to do this exact thing on these boards; is it something I do? :?
DragonsofSummer wrote:At this point it is really just a gut feeling. Your posting so far rubs me the wrong way, but there isn't anything inherently scummy with it. But with rampant lynching going on gut feelings are sometimes the best imo.
Well, your gut is wrong, I'm town. >_> You seriously can't find anyone who's done anything tangibly scummy?
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Post Post #418 (ISO) » Tue Apr 22, 2008 5:44 am

Post by Battle Mage »

The Elemental Mafia modding team has discussed the rate at which the town is
self-destructing
constructively quicklynching, and we've decided in the interests of preventing the game from ending on Day 1, to set a maximum limit on the day's lynches. Nothing too restrictive, but a measure to keep the game reasonable.
Today's limit is 8 player deaths, which does not include the N0 kill, or SA's death. Hence you guys have a maximum of 4 lynches remaining today.

Apologies for the change of rule, and thanks for understanding.

Signed

BM
Dahill
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #419 (ISO) » Tue Apr 22, 2008 5:49 am

Post by ooba »

Battle Mage wrote:
The Elemental Mafia modding team has discussed the rate at which the town is
self-destructing
constructively quicklynching, and we've decided in the interests of preventing the game from ending on Day 1, to set a maximum limit on the day's lynches. Nothing too restrictive, but a measure to keep the game reasonable.
Today's limit is 8 player deaths, which does not include the N0 kill, or SA's death. Hence you guys have a maximum of 4 lynches remaining today.

Apologies for the change of rule, and thanks for understanding.

Signed

BM
Dahill
Jordan
This is unfair to the town. :|
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Post Post #420 (ISO) » Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:16 am

Post by Cavebear with a toothache »

ooba wrote:
Battle Mage wrote:
The Elemental Mafia modding team has discussed the rate at which the town is
self-destructing
constructively quicklynching, and we've decided in the interests of preventing the game from ending on Day 1, to set a maximum limit on the day's lynches. Nothing too restrictive, but a measure to keep the game reasonable.
Today's limit is 8 player deaths, which does not include the N0 kill, or SA's death. Hence you guys have a maximum of 4 lynches remaining today.

Apologies for the change of rule, and thanks for understanding.

Signed

BM
Dahill
Jordan
This is unfair to the town. :|
I agree. Not only do you take away our best weapon and tilt the odds in favor of the scum, but you also make our lynches thus far worth less. You are, in effect, breaking our balls here.

I humbly urge the modding team to reconsider this limit, and ask that the limit either be removed or, failing that, substantially raised.
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Post Post #421 (ISO) » Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:18 am

Post by Muerrto »

It is kinda bad to set a limit AFTER we lynch 4 town. I'm gonna have to agree with the others.
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Games - 31
Town - Win=9, Loss=10
Mafia - Win=5, Loss=4
Abondoned = 3

I feel for the rest of the players every time I get a town PM.
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Post Post #422 (ISO) » Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:32 am

Post by Battle Mage »

With such a unique game it is difficult to find a balance that will be perfect with so many variables. In any case, the town has only lynched 1 person today. At the current rate, you won't reach this limit atall, hence this isn't even worth contesting at this point. The decision is final.
Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #423 (ISO) » Tue Apr 22, 2008 7:28 am

Post by mneme »

A few things to comment on since the last time I'm posted.

Hmm. I'm voting for Pooky? Must have been a replacement somewhere in there; don't remember doing that...
kabenon007 wrote: Well, I suppose that we should consider the fact that the CR's saw this bum rushing as a possibility and refrained from recruiting anyone in an effort to make us do their dirty work for them.
I don't like this...I'm caught between thinking that CRs are leading the charge, and that they're likely to be the "calm voices" speaking against the (correct) strategy of "bandwagon early, bandwagon often, lynch pretty often too" the town has been following.

OTOH,
kabenon007 wrote: Also, I agree with farside. It does us no good for townie who are -3 or 2 away to just give up. An inventor is a valuable role, if he had claimed that, I would have believed him, because I was just something like an inventor, besides, it seems like there are many odd roles in this game.
Is quite correct; people (on both sides) were getting into the fallacy of assuming people should be lynched just because they get a bandwagon -- when, in fact, the nature of the bandwagon is just as important as the person on the receiving end; correct strategy leads to a lot of lynches in this style of game, but also a lot of bandwagons that don't lead to lynches. Mostly, it just leads to faster play.

Hopefully, if anything good comes out of the mod-imposed lynch limit, (aside from, you know, a more fun game that doesn't end on Day 1 with one person left, after a statistical implosion), it's people -not- giving up as soon as they get bandwagoning, but instead following the normal course of things -- only faster.

Muerto vs Macavenger: Macavenger is trivially correct here. Assuming there are no extra scum roles, we have 5 starting scum, and...hmm. A recruiter will fail if they hit another recruiter (3), a cop (2), the SK (1), the Jester (1), an average of 2 people blocked by other recruiters, and, a dudge in jail (1), and let's estimate 2 more nonrecruitable townies. We know nobody dead was recruited, so lets assume they weren't targetted (fudging, but I've got several other fudge factors here, so let's hope they cancel out). So that's 11/19 of a new recruit for each recruiter (19 choices, of which 8 will fail) -- or 2ish new recruits each night. So there are 7 scum. However, of those 7 scum, the dude put in jail cannot be three of them (not a recruit, not Wayne). So his odds of being scum is only 4/19 -- as opposed to 7/19 for anybody else.

Overall, not liking Muerto's play here at all, actually:
Muerrto wrote: If we're lynching him now cause we're lazy shrug I guess...

Vote: TSN


Someone hammer already lol. I'm used to small games where we care who dies hehe.
Yes, we do very much care about who dies here, why do you ask? The game mechanics just favor us playing Faster. This response seems pretty opprotunistic, actually.


unvote
vote: Muerrto
IGMEOY: Pooky. Suspission isn't dropped just because of a replacement.
Did I say too much?
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Post Post #424 (ISO) » Tue Apr 22, 2008 7:59 am

Post by elvis_knits »

DrippingGoofball wrote:
elvis_knits wrote:
vote andycyca
Why?
He's not helping.

I feel that some scum have got to be sitting back and letting us just attack each other. And it is probably intimidating for some of them that this town is playing fast and loose. Yes, we haven't killed any scum, but the wagons are swinging quickly, which is scary to them. So I suspect some scum, at least, don't want to be too high profile today.

I also approve of DoS wagon.

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