Micro 794: Miss List II (Game Over)

[PantherPunt]

Also if nobody explains it, I'll go find it

But

I haven't read all of the thread yet so if one of you could recap why bujb is confirmed scum that'd be nice

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also if nobody explains it, I'll go find it

But

I haven't read all of the thread yet so if one of you could recap why bujb is confirmed scum that'd be nice

Chicka shot Creature on a list of Me / Impl / Creature / Buj

She was only supposed to shoot Creature if all four were on the 5 person Miss List. So unless Chicka went rogue (which I have no reason to think she would) at least 3 of the four on the list have to be scum for her to shoot Creature.

Truth be told he's only Conf Scum from my point of view. So you do need to exercise your judgement. But I know for certain he's scum based on the Creature shot and knowing I'm Town so when I get lynched and go to shoot I know he's showing up with two other players on my Miss List.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna, its surprising to me that your read on me is strong enough to bet the game on. Can you tell me what, specifically, got you to me being your most confident town?

I don't want to hurt your ego but it's not because you are SuperTown2018 obv-player. But you are by far the most Town FMPOV given 2 of the three of you / Math / NotMafia have to be Town.

Frankly the best post that sold me from your ISO was your question to NotMafia about Derp-clearing because I know from my own experience that scum (especially weaker players) have in the past gone to the "Oh let me post something that shows I don't know the setup so I can't be Scum" well in Open game. I've caught a couple of players in Jungle Republic set-ups over the years trying that tactic. So that it occured to you that his "Oh, didn't know it was 4 scum" could be a play for a derpclear showed a level of questioning I don't expect to come from Scum.

But in comparison to the others? You're the obvious choice. Math has had an agenda to make sure he's the BMOC and in charge the entire game and I certainly would not put it past him to be running a "Attack the most experienced player to keep them off their game" plan from the outset. That coupled with his ease of reading NotMafia as obv-Town (when frankly the only way to read NotMafia is with a bullet or by relation since he's always content lite) have me seriously considering him as the most likely partner to Buj. That and his refusal to look at the plan I want you to look at. Which would be game winning for Town if I'm reading you right as Town.

[Not_Mafia]

Yeah no way we're betting the game on those reads

[PantherPunt]

Also if nobody explains it, I'll go find it

But

I haven't read all of the thread yet so if one of you could recap why bujb is confirmed scum that'd be nice

Chicka shot Creature on a list of Me / Impl / Creature / Buj

She was only supposed to shoot Creature if all four were on the 5 person Miss List. So unless Chicka went rogue (which I have no reason to think she would) at least 3 of the four on the list have to be scum for her to shoot Creature.

Truth be told he's only Conf Scum from my point of view. So you do need to exercise your judgement. But I know for certain he's scum based on the Creature shot and knowing I'm Town so when I get lynched and go to shoot I know he's showing up with two other players on my Miss List.

How were those 4 names selected? Who made that plan? And what we she to do if that result wasn't the case?

I'll definitely read it now but it is helping me read the game to have you talk about it

[PantherPunt]

What I need to figure out or have someone offer up

How can scum!magna game or counter his proposed plan of locking the game. You see, he is saying the game is locked if I'm town. I know I'm town but what I'm unsure of is if his plan leads to ambiguous outcomes in the world where he is scum

If there doesn't seem to be a way, cool
If there does, we can talk more

But even in the world where we don't lock, the game will come down to a coinflip that's in towns favor, ya?
Like...getting to f3 there is a 1/3 chance to lynch scum and should that fail there is a 1/2 chance to shoot scum so if I'm not forgetting how that works it's a 2/3 chance we win

[Not_Mafia]

Yeah no way we're betting the game on those reads

The Panther read is incredibly surface level, scum will question "derpclears" all the time, especially if they're from town which your own reads suggests it is

Math always tries to control games. People can read me, you just don't know how

[Mathdino]

Mathdino who are you on MU?

Also- did you read magnas plan and can you poke any holes in it in the world where I'm town (As in- don't say "ya..if you're scum, then 'XYZ'. pretend to know I'm town and think/answer)

In the case that you're town, Magna's plan involves lynching town-Magna and:

- If he sees you and one of me/N_M on the Miss List, he shoots not-you
- If he sees me and N_M, he just shoots confscum Bujaber

This is exactly equivalent to just lynching confscum Bujaber and having Magna and whoever we're lynching tomorrow sacrifice.

If you're town, mafia is gonna say "well I'd rather Bujaber get shot" and whichever of me/N_M is scum just puts the other one on the list to force that shot.

Basically, the plan is a case of Fancy Play Syndrome. It adds nothing because scum can just tailor the Miss List to whatever plan we write.

And I just read MU for the articles

[Mathdino]

Chicka shot Creature on a list of Me / Impl / Creature / Buj

She was only supposed to shoot Creature if all four were on the 5 person Miss List. So unless Chicka went rogue (which I have no reason to think she would) at least 3 of the four on the list have to be scum for her to shoot Creature.

Truth be told he's only Conf Scum from my point of view. So you do need to exercise your judgement. But I know for certain he's scum based on the Creature shot and knowing I'm Town so when I get lynched and go to shoot I know he's showing up with two other players on my Miss List.

How were those 4 names selected? Who made that plan? And what we she to do if that result wasn't the case?

I'll definitely read it now but it is helping me read the game to have you talk about it

I told Chickadee to call the scumteam, and she called Magna/implo/Creature/Bujaber. That was it, it was just a good read from her.

I made the plan.

If she sees all 4 names, she shoots Creature. If she doesn't see all 4 names, she shoots based on her best judgment.

[MagnaofIllusion]

In the case that you're town, Magna's plan involves lynching town-Magna and:

- If he sees you and one of me/N_M on the Miss List, he shoots not-you
- If he sees me and N_M, he just shoots confscum Bujaber

This is exactly equivalent to just lynching confscum Bujaber and having Magna and whoever we're lynching tomorrow sacrifice.

If you're town, mafia is gonna say "well I'd rather Bujaber get shot" and whichever of me/N_M is scum just puts the other one on the list to force that shot.

Basically, the plan is a case of Fancy Play Syndrome. It adds nothing because scum can just tailor the Miss List to whatever plan we write.

Read this carefully Panther. Because this is handwaving in an attempt to pretend that the game is in the same state tomorrow when it is not.

Because in his plan I'm still going to be around to be able to be painted as scum. He's already said in his mind scum didn't use their sacrifice block. So I'm not going to be able to sacrifice tonight if so the waters can still be muddied. And notice he's not talking about who he thinks should sacrifice tonight because with his solid Town read on NotMafia that means you.

My lynch means either

A. All four players from Chickadee's list are dead and flipped. You have been absolutely cleared as Town (for not appearing on the Miss List) and thus you will not be lynched tomorrow and either scum is lynched or the Town in NotMafia / Math is lynched and shoots the other for the win.

B. I'm lynched, flip Town and don't see both NotMafia and Math on the Miss List and shoot the one who is. Buj is confirmed scum to everyone mechanically (by my flip and 3 of 4 on Chickadee's list having to be scum) and is lynched for the Town win.

We lynch Buj he flips scum their is no combination of players electing to sacrifice that gives any clarity regardless who dies (it will be you, BTW given that I'm shooting tomorrow most likely and you are my strongest Town read). I can elaborate on scenarios as to why you will get killed based on who is left if you'd like.

[Mathdino]

you're obviously neglect the fact that you're for whatever reason willing to bet the entire game on the idea that panther is town

and that scum-panther wouldn't just put me or not_mafia on the miss list in order to get town shot

i'm floored that you somehow think panther is more likely to be town than both me and not_mafia

[MagnaofIllusion]

you're obviously neglect the fact that you're for whatever reason willing to bet the entire game on the idea that panther is town

and that scum-panther wouldn't just put me or not_mafia on the miss list in order to get town shot

i'm floored that you somehow think panther is more likely to be town than both me and not_mafia

Umm ... hypo-Scum Panther would have to put you or NM on the Miss List that's how it works. You act like that is a revelation when it's basic mechanics.

I really don't mind if you dislike me putting the game on the line with my read since I'm pretty sure it locks the game. Your personal egotism isn't my concern.

If Panther is scum with Buj as you said you really don't have any say in the matter do you? So doesn't the fact that you are trying your hardest to appeal to Panther that the plan is faulty show that you don't think he's scum? There's a real disconnect there. Not to mention that scum-Panther probably wouldn't go to the trouble of questioning so much of a plan by me that would win him the game.

[Mathdino]

if panther is scum with bujaber then you're essentially throwing the game over your own shitty read

we lynch scum, this is fucking simple

scum will only lynch town if they feel like your reads are bad

that's literally the only scenario in which you get enough votes to lynch yourself -- scum thinks "magna's reads are shitty enough that we can lynch him and win the game"

[PantherPunt]

Spicy spicy either I'm getting pocketed or magna is stomping mathdino and mathdino logic to contradict magnas point is to argue to magna that I'm scum when it feels like he's also arguing to me that magna is scum

I mean feels like magna is town or is otherwise truly a beast

Math- show me magnas road to victory if he is scum with bujb and suggesting this plan?

Why is it that you're hardclearing notmafia? Maybe I'm wrong but it feels like you're not at all considering bujb+nm

Pedit I'm posting this then reading that

[PantherPunt]

Aorn I'm rolling with magna

You can lolme as hard as you'd like if he is mafia, but you've failed to tell me how he wins with this plan if he is mafia (unless bubj is town in which case it seems we can blame someone else)

Mathdino sounds desperate to not go in this direction but the only logic of that is me being scum, which I'm not, so ya

[Mathdino]

i mean i'm gonna be honest with you, the primary reason i don't want to do this plan is because if you're scum, this plan literally loses the game FMPOV
he's arguing this whole READ BETWEEN THE LINES, MATHDINO IS MANIPULATING YOU
when like, no fucking shit, i'm doing what wins the game FMPOV

if magna and you are both town, and not_mafia is scum, this plan is exactly identical to "lynch bujaber, have one of magna/N_M/panther sacrifice, lynch N_M in the morning"

at the same time, keep in mind that again, the only way magna has enough votes to get lynched is if scum feel like he's going to shoot wrong

you can vote for magna, and he'll vote himself, but bujaber only votes him if bujaber knows this is a bad plan

[Not_Mafia]

At least one of Mathdino and I are town and we're refusing to vote Magna, so at least one scum has to vote Magna for him to be lynched, which they're not going if he's guaranteeing a town win

[Mathdino]

Math- show me magnas road to victory if he is scum with bujb and suggesting this plan?

Why is it that you're hardclearing notmafia? Maybe I'm wrong but it feels like you're not at all considering bujb+nm

Pedit I'm posting this then reading that

Aorn I'm rolling with magna

You can lolme as hard as you'd like if he is mafia, but you've failed to tell me how he wins with this plan if he is mafia (unless bubj is town in which case it seems we can blame someone else)

Mathdino sounds desperate to not go in this direction but the only logic of that is me being scum, which I'm not, so ya

- there's no path to victory, we always lynch bujaber and magna in that order today and tomorrow. like, he's asking to be lynched right now.

- i'm hardclearing not_mafia because i've played with him 6 or 7 times now, and while people like magna and me-from-7-games-ago think N_M is unreadable, multiple players are on record for finding him VERY EASILY READABLE, and i've figured out how
i've always had in the back of my mind the idea that N_M's reads are only this good if he's scum
but if that's true, and N_M is deepwolfing by just lynching all the scum in succession
then it literally benefits me to keep N_M around and to not explicitly talk about how i'd be willing to lynch him in lylo
this setup has no nightkill mechanic; in the case of scum-N_M, my plan was to basically hardclear him, let him lynch scum for me since that's pretty clearly the plan, and then reevaluate at the end
but occam's razor says my read is just correct and he's town

[MagnaofIllusion]

Panther

- Notice he avoids following the "No winning path if MoI and Buj" line with the logical conclusion beyond that - there is no reason for that scum-team not have conceded the game already. Thus he's accepting that one of us is Town. And clearly he thinks Buj is the scum between us. That much is clear given he trying to treat me like the Village Idiot of PantsOnHeadington who has terrible play and is a moron. But he said himself if we lynch scum Buj today and I'm alive tomorrow I'm lynched. And hasn't refuted that his quicklynch on Implosion means scum have their sacrifice block likely in hand. So I'm going to live til tomorrow to be lynched and shoot. So why if I'm getting lynched and shooting tomorrow (as he just said) is he worried about me shooting today?

One of NotMafia and Math is scum who doesn't want a lock plan. The other doesn't understand what's going on and just is digging in on the "I'm right MoI is a moron" stance to protect their own ego. I'm leaning Math as the scum of the two.

[Not_Mafia]

Yup me the famous ego, I'm just not willing to bet the game on Panther scum when we can get rid of a confscum

[Mathdino]

i've been treating you like that since literally page 2 of the game

magna all you've done so far is do the whole OH READ BETWEEN MATHDINOS WORDS, THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SCUM-HIM

well no shit, any plan i make involves me not dying

but also consider that scum-me can literally just lynch you and put not_mafia on the miss list to force you to shoot bujaber

why have i not done that yet?

you haven't shown how my play is inconsistent with town-me

in fact you're ignoring that my play is outright inconsistent with scum-me, in that your plan does fuckall if i'm scum, and i can just end the goddamn game already by lynching you

but i'm town, and i'm afraid that panther-scum puts me on the list and has you shoot me

what i'm trying to argue is that your plan isn't even robust enough to get past scum-me, and you're so far up your own ass that you think this is the ultimate solution to scum-mathdino

the solution to scum-mathdino isn't in night actions, it's just by lynching me straight up instead of fucking lynching yourself

[Mathdino]

also my whole "you only get lynched if your plan sucks" argument is directed at magna

magna, N_M and i will literally never lynch you

the only possible situation in which you get lynched is if bujaber and panther both pile onto you and you self-vote

which will ONLY happen if bujaber knows your plan is horse-shit

so the question is, would you rather lynch a wagon you KNOW FOR SURE is scum-motivated (yourself)

or just fucking lynch confscum already and get this shit over with

[MagnaofIllusion]

but also consider that scum-me can literally just lynch you and put not_mafia on the miss list to force you to shoot bujaber

why have i not done that yet?

Because that clears Panther 100% since he isn't on the Miss List and thus dooms you to lose.

Why do you think somehow this is a damning refutation of the plan when it was already accounted for in the plan?

[Mathdino]

but also consider that scum-me can literally just lynch you and put not_mafia on the miss list to force you to shoot bujaber

why have i not done that yet?

Because that clears Panther 100% since he isn't on the Miss List and thus dooms you to lose.

Why do you think somehow this is a damning refutation of the plan when it was already accounted for in the plan?

SO WHY WOULD BUJABER EVER GIVE YOU YOUR VOTE?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Panther

- The one element Math has correct is that if my read on you as Town is correct Buj isn't going to vote me. So I'd like your thoughts on whether you think NotMafia or Math is the second scum. Because I'd like the two of us to take a crack at getting the last Town on board.