Micro 768: Geriatric Grey Flag Nightless - Game Over

[Lord Gurgi]

I reset the daily limit at 12:01 AM EST.

[xRECKONERx]

I'd like to hear more of your thoughts on Keychain Reckoner.

I think that, if she's scum, she sat off the wagon D1 and mostly let town eat themselves. I think she makes the most sense being connected to Jingle, given how Jingle sat back and threw shade at her D1 but never engaged her. Plus, she buttered up Jingle pretty hard early on.

I don't HATE anything Keychain has done, particularly. The only things that possibly tinge my gut are:
1. She jumped on CoA on the back of insanity's early post against CoA, rather than pushing or prodding herself.
2. Some of her jovial interactions (like in 85 with Jingle, or randomly wishing me happy birthday) come off as really fake and insincere to me, but maybe I'm just cynical.
3. Defends Aristophanes against push from Jingle. This could be an easy white knight, and given that I think scum kinda let town eat themselves, it could fit.
4. 90% of Keychain's posts are calling out townreads instead of scumhunting. To me, this is usually a huge red flag. The only "scumhunting" done is putting TGP at L-1 saying "not big on TGP's posts". Nothing concrete.

Please don't. There's enough to read around him and this is white flag. You don't HAVE to sort everyone. I'd love to hear more about the scumread on me though.

I think I've kinda explained it over time, but to put it succinctly and in one easy to read location:
You were tainted from the moment the joke RVS shit happened and it caused me to look at you under a microscope.
I don't like that you jump through hoops in post 40 to call Korts scum, and I don't really believe that you did the mental calculus necessary to arrive at an organic conclusion. To me, it felt like you going into things looking to end up at a Korts-scum result to fit your narrative.
I don't like that you tried to explain away my reservations about post 40 with self-meta.
I don't like that CoA implied you were town, then backpedaled hard when called out on it. I just don't believe CoA is scum who did calculus to try and paint a townie in a bad light based on hypothetical associative tells later on.
I don't like that you kept answering questions FOR CoA, who you already had icky connections with.
I don't like that you defended the CoA replace-out and dismissed my read on the replace out as scummy.

Simply put, you/Hopkirk just make way too much sense as buddies for me to really ignore it.

Reckoner side:
- Dislike 55 as I have all game. Keychain/Korts interactions are especially bad given he puts them as null/light scum with no real follow up. Also still dislike the way he makes the Jingles scumread. The CoA scumread/Insanity townread without pushing it feels like he’s waiting/opportunistic for whatever wagon happens. Fits with his general sitting on the sidelines. This is reinforced by him not trying to interact with me or to push me.

I was on page two of a game trying to form reads on what amounted to "RVS bullshit". Your predecessor, around that same time, was pushing a RayFrost scumread/Insanity townread without pushing it, there, too. So you gonna call your own slot scummy?

- Flip to Ari is badly justified. Doesn’t consider Ari relative to Jingle- who he was voting just beforehand.

Yup. You're right. I was bored of the game and wanted some kind of progress to happen. I thought a flip would help me re-engage with the game since I had been out of it for so long. I'd also note that Jingle was encouraging me to hammer at the end when I was dancing around whether or not I wanted to actually do it, yet you conveniently leave that out here. Neat.

- Reads feel like they’re strategic/flexible rather than consistent. Eg, votes Korts in 281 for a weak attack on me- despite Reckoner seeming to have a scumread on me there. I don’t understand where his Jingle read went either.

Yes, you realize scum can have weak attacks on other scum, right? Me thinking Korts had a weak attack on you doesn't contradict me thinking you're scum. Fuck, it would even make MORE sense if you two were scum together and he half-assed an attack on you as a way to tentatively distance from you, but it had no conviction behind it. I don't believe you really believe this point at all and think if you were town it would take you two fucking seconds to reach within yourself to understand some Level Two Logic here.

- Claims in 289 he didn’t realize Ray had been replaced by TGP when he voted Ray in 233. Weird given he says in 287 that Ray didn’t do a lot, and Reck seems to have scumreads. Not a major point, but seems inconsistent/like the above. Don’t like the way he interacted with TGP in this exchange, as I mentioned at the time.

Why is it weird that my progression is:
- Vote Ray in 233
- Realize Ray was replaced in 238
- Analyze his replacement's play in 287 while commenting on the fact that Ray didn't do anything in the game
- I then say in 289 that my 233 vote was when I didn't realize they were the same person

I literally don't understand the point you're trying to make. What is weird about me saying "Ray didn't do a whole lot, and I'm not loving TGP's play since then either"?

- 338/9- Says scum within 4 (Korts/Insanity/him/me)- very suspicious Key/BV are not in this pile. Comes out with BV/Key in the ‘could be scum but lets lynch other people first’ position. 339 hasn’t had the promised follow up after 6 days which fits with the other two scum who aren’t posting substance and waiting to see what happens.

I literally listed the people who were on both wagons both days as a starting point. Piss off with this.

I kind of had Reckoner as scum at the day start then forgot about him for some reason when I agreed Korts/Reckoner were unlikely to be together. I hadn’t actually reisod Korts or Reckoner properly until now. I think I was getting some of Korts/Reckoner mixed up with one another actually.

Oh wow how convenient that you had me a scum totes the whole time you guys but now that I've said I thought you are scum with Jingle, you suddenly remember it!!


There's very little in my gut stopping me from voting Hopkirk right now.
Speak now, rest of game, or forever hold your peace.

[Hopkirk]

I was on page two of a game trying to form reads on what amounted to "RVS bullshit". Your predecessor, around that same time, was pushing a RayFrost scumread/Insanity townread without pushing it, there, too. So you gonna call your own slot scummy?

'What about other person' isn't an excuse for you doing the same behaviour- and doing it to a greater extent. You gave your reads and didn't follow up on them or develop them. That's scummy. CoA didn't follow up because they subbed out (and had 1/100th of your experience). You didn't progress substantially through the other half of day one or day two.
Side point: I haven't and don't intend to fully read CoA.

Yup. You're right. I was bored of the game and wanted some kind of progress to happen. I thought a flip would help me re-engage with the game since I had been out of it for so long. I'd also note that Jingle was encouraging me to hammer at the end when I was dancing around whether or not I wanted to actually do it, yet you conveniently leave that out here. Neat.

I'm saying:
a.) Why would you listen to Jingle given he was allegedly a top scumread for you at the time.
b.) Why didn't you follow up on the Jingle scumread afterwards given he'd encouraged you to vote Ari who flipped town. Your Jingle scumread should have increased, but there's no signs of it developing.

Yes, you realize scum can have weak attacks on other scum, right? Me thinking Korts had a weak attack on you doesn't contradict me thinking you're scum. Fuck, it would even make MORE sense if you two were scum together and he half-assed an attack on you as a way to tentatively distance from you, but it had no conviction behind it. I don't believe you really believe this point at all and think if you were town it would take you two fucking seconds to reach within yourself to understand some Level Two Logic here.

You should try to interpret the point in context before accusing me of being an idiot. The point I made wasn't 'scum never bus', it was that your reads look flexible and opportunistic. If I was saying 'Korts wouldn't make a bad case on his partner' I wouldn't be using the example as evidence for the point 'Reckoner's reads look flexible.''

In the example, you voted Korts. Your prior posts suggested you scumread me at the same time. You'd been sitting on a Hopkirk scumread without developing it. This reflected the 'sitting on the sidelines and not developing reads' pattern that I addressed in point one. You voted Korts rather than developing the Hopkirk read, or over reads. The Korts vote also didn't lead you to reevaluate or iso Korts. Therefore, it feels opportunistic, and not what you'd do if your scumreads were legitimate. Likewise, your Jingle scumread dropping without explination follows the same pattern.


Addressing second half in another post since my computer has an issue where it randomly stops responding.

[Hopkirk]

Why is it weird that my progression is:
- Vote Ray in 233
- Realize Ray was replaced in 238
- Analyze his replacement's play in 287 while commenting on the fact that Ray didn't do anything in the game
- I then say in 289 that my 233 vote was when I didn't realize they were the same person

I literally don't understand the point you're trying to make. What is weird about me saying "Ray didn't do a whole lot, and I'm not loving TGP's play since then either"?

The stage I’m taking issue with in the progression is the first one: ‘Vote Ray in 233’.

This is because you said in 238 you didn’t know TGP was Ray, and that Ray didn’t do much in 287.

Therefore, I have no idea why you voted Ray in 233 if he didn’t do a lot given you had other scumreads who had done scummy stuff. Your goal/vote doesn’t make sense there. Especially given you had Jingle as scum the previous day- but didn’t push him after the wagon he’d pushed failed. That really didn’t make sense.

I literally listed the people who were on both wagons both days as a starting point. Piss off with this.

You did do that. You also said there was scum in them. Statistically, it's probable there is scum in a group on 4 when 3/7 people are scum. I agree you did this.

What you didn't do was say why this was true, or why it was relevant. You didn't look at BV who hadn't been on either wagon, you didn't look at how the wagons were pushed by those 4 players or compare how they approached each wagon, you didn't explain why scum would be more likely to be on both wagons... you only said they were on both wagons, and there was scum within them.

You also implied those four were more likely to be scum since you decided to ISO me and Korts first based on it.

Oh wow how convenient that you had me a scum totes the whole time you guys but now that I've said I thought you are scum with Jingle, you suddenly remember it!!

I'll quote posts in my next post.

There's very little in my gut stopping me from voting Hopkirk right now.

I'd prefer to lynch Key/BV since you/Korts isn't 100% for me, whereas they are.

[Hopkirk]

Responding to

Oh wow how convenient that you had me a scum totes the whole time you guys but now that I've said I thought you are scum with Jingle, you suddenly remember it!!

showing I did have Reckoner as a scumlean- both at the start of D3, and all game. Not convenient. Consistent.

120 and onwards d1: had Reckoner as leaning scum based on first read. D1.

261: Korts/Reckoner as scumleans. D2.

334: Start of today. Express scumread on you. D3.

356: This is where the problem happened. I reread your iso

specifically

looking for Korts interactions. I was mistakenly only looking for scumteams that contained Korts (literally just ctrl/f Korts). I’d overlooked other possibilities. I concluded you were town since you/Korts seemed unlikely. You moved to scum when I realized Korts isn’t confirmed scum since there’s scumteams that don’t contain Korts. I’d been treating Korts as confirmed scum for some reason up to this point.

359: Showing the above- ‘Korts/Reckoner doesn’t seem likely. I moved reckoner to town based on this.’

390: I properly wrote out and considered teams at this point and became enlightened.

[xRECKONERx]

'What about other person' isn't an excuse for you doing the same behaviour- and doing it to a greater extent. You gave your reads and didn't follow up on them or develop them. That's scummy. CoA didn't follow up because they subbed out (and had 1/100th of your experience). You didn't progress substantially through the other half of day one or day two.
Side point: I haven't and don't intend to fully read CoA.

It's just hollow coming from the slot that did the same shit.
It's why I hate replacements, I can't hold your feet to the fire over the scummy shit your predecessor did.
I did give reads. On page two. And then I posted more content and my reads evolved over time, aside from the period in which I was

announced to be V/LA with no internet access

.

This is a horrible push.

I'm saying:
a.) Why would you listen to Jingle given he was allegedly a top scumread for you at the time.
b.) Why didn't you follow up on the Jingle scumread afterwards given he'd encouraged you to vote Ari who flipped town. Your Jingle scumread should have increased, but there's no signs of it developing.

a) Because it gave me reactions either way.
b) Because I realized I had just been looking back on Jingle as scum due to locking in on him early game and after hammering town I didn't feel particularly confident in my reads or abilities and wanted to see what else happened first. I'm a very skittish player. If I'm right, I will be a dick about it and shout it from the rooftops forever. If I'm wrong, though, I tuck tail and curl into the fetal position and retreat into myself.

You should try to interpret the point in context before accusing me of being an idiot. The point I made wasn't 'scum never bus', it was that your reads look flexible and opportunistic. If I was saying 'Korts wouldn't make a bad case on his partner' I wouldn't be using the example as evidence for the point 'Reckoner's reads look flexible.''

In the example, you voted Korts. Your prior posts suggested you scumread me at the same time. You'd been sitting on a Hopkirk scumread without developing it. This reflected the 'sitting on the sidelines and not developing reads' pattern that I addressed in point one. You voted Korts rather than developing the Hopkirk read, or over reads. The Korts vote also didn't lead you to reevaluate or iso Korts. Therefore, it feels opportunistic, and not what you'd do if your scumreads were legitimate. Likewise, your Jingle scumread dropping without explination follows the same pattern.

Korts did something that pinged my gut as scummy. I commented on it. It's as simple as that.
Waxing poetic like you're doing over a one-off moment is really baffling to me.
Someone doing something that is scummy in a vacuum does not equate to me hard reading them as scum.

The stage I’m taking issue with in the progression is the first one: ‘Vote Ray in 233’.

This is because you said in 238 you didn’t know TGP was Ray, and that Ray didn’t do much in 287.

Therefore, I have no idea why you voted Ray in 233 if he didn’t do a lot given you had other scumreads who had done scummy stuff. Your goal/vote doesn’t make sense there. Especially given you had Jingle as scum the previous day- but didn’t push him after the wagon he’d pushed failed. That really didn’t make sense.

Because I made this post during D1:

Ray's 41 reads to me like someone pretending to have reads after skimming the game rather than someone's truly heartfelt and fire-tested opinions about the game. Again, not really alignment indicative in a vacuum, and I have no other context to go off of, so it's null.

And then when D2 started I realized I still had zero perspective on Ray so I voted for him.

You did do that. You also said there was scum in them. Statistically, it's probable there is scum in a group on 4 when 3/7 people are scum. I agree you did this.

What you didn't do was say why this was true, or why it was relevant. You didn't look at BV who hadn't been on either wagon, you didn't look at how the wagons were pushed by those 4 players or compare how they approached each wagon, you didn't explain why scum would be more likely to be on both wagons... you only said they were on both wagons, and there was scum within them.

You also implied those four were more likely to be scum since you decided to ISO me and Korts first based on it.

I looked at the players who had been on both wagons because I believed it was the strongest starting point to consider. I have a very hard time believing those wagons happened without scum's influence on them to drive them, so for me, digging into that was the best place to start. It was fucking implied that I was investigating the wagons and how they happened

considering my entire follow up post was written about the wagons and how they happened

. This is willfully obtuse.

I'd prefer to lynch Key/BV since you/Korts isn't 100% for me, whereas they are.

SO just to be clear: you want to lynch Key/BV, who you're very sure are scum, but you're wasting time having a pissing match with me, who isn't even a scumread, in LyLo?
Am I right on that?

[Hopkirk]

I refreshed the page. Haven't read your latest post except for the last point yet. It's a joke.

You can't seriously be saying I think you're 'not a scumread'.
I've said several times I'm very sure it's Reck/Key/BV, with a small chance of Korts/Key/BV.

You just responded to a post where I said it's Key/BV and either you/Korts- but far far far more likely you. Are you SERIOUSLY trying to say 'you/Korts isn't 100% for me, whereas they are.' is 'not a scumread'? Given the context? Seriously? I won't read the rest of your post until you respond to this because it sounds like you're trolling me here.

I made a case on you since I was asked to by a townread. I responded because your responses were bad.

[xRECKONERx]

Responding to

Oh wow how convenient that you had me a scum totes the whole time you guys but now that I've said I thought you are scum with Jingle, you suddenly remember it!!

showing I did have Reckoner as a scumlean- both at the start of D3, and all game. Not convenient. Consistent.

120 and onwards d1: had Reckoner as leaning scum based on first read. D1.

261: Korts/Reckoner as scumleans. D2.

334: Start of today. Express scumread on you. D3.

356: This is where the problem happened. I reread your iso

specifically

looking for Korts interactions. I was mistakenly only looking for scumteams that contained Korts (literally just ctrl/f Korts). I’d overlooked other possibilities. I concluded you were town since you/Korts seemed unlikely. You moved to scum when I realized Korts isn’t confirmed scum since there’s scumteams that don’t contain Korts. I’d been treating Korts as confirmed scum for some reason up to this point.

359: Showing the above- ‘Korts/Reckoner doesn’t seem likely. I moved reckoner to town based on this.’

390: I properly wrote out and considered teams at this point and became enlightened.

Really about to pull the trigger on just voting Hopkirk, but I want the fucking mod to deal with this BlackVoid situation first.

[Korts]

Hmmm.

The back and forth on this page does not seem very much like scumpartner theater. Not sure if scum-town or town-town though. Hopkirk is making some sound points, and Reck is getting riled up.

I'm not sure where to put Hopkirk backing down from me as confscum so easily. It initially pinged my radar, but giving up on bad logic as soon as it is called out

can

be a reasonable pro-town move. It seems, however, that rather than just demoting my guaranteed position in all his scumteam calls, he's now transitioned his main focus to a scumteam without me? Not sure how that works.

Gotta go now. Will do more tomorrow.

[Hopkirk]

Won't be looking at the rest of what Reckoner said then I suppose.

@Korts: The main cause of my read switching wasn't so much 'being called out on bad logic' so much as 'actually reread the game after procrastinating a lot'. Of course, I bought Jingle's points on you/Luca more on the reread compared to on the skim. I also agree my reasons for thinking you were scum initially were bad.

[Jingle]

@Reck: please withhold your vote until Keychain gets back to me, thanks.

[BlackVoid]

First impression from the D1 Aristo lynch is that I'm not entirely sure I understand Jingle's reasoning for it. I do follow the reasoning. It's more that I felt like Aristo was lynchbait who wasn't really a strong town player and Jingle's push never really accounted for that. I'm trying to decide if he genuinely believed it or was taking advantage of someone he knew was far less articulate than he was.

Reckoner is the only person I have a townread on at the moment so I need to sort the rest. I'd really rather someone else put down a vote before him actually.

[Keychain]

Could you explain why you think the other scumteams can't be ruled out? Or ask questions about why I think they can be?

Also, glad to see the return of the fairy avvy, Key.

It's a different fairy avvy this time Sorry for the delay.

The other teams you ruled out that didn't include me were Korts/Luca and insanity/Hopkirk.

To make sure I'm getting it right - you've ruled out Korts/Luca because you don't think scum partners would have done the 1v1 to start the game, particularly regarding Luca's first push was on Korts. Reading their ISOs together I do see why you'd think it was unlikely, but I also don't think it's impossible considering scum would be trying to avoid being linked together from the get go. I wouldn't rule it out based on that though. Was there other reasoning for this pairing being ruled out that I'm forgetting?

For insanity/Hopkirk, insanity's first push was also on CoA so it's similar to the other pair in that way.

Actually reading through their ISOs I think I'd agree with you on this one. If they're scum partners that looks like a pretty determined bus from insanity, which would be

very

risky, enough so that if one flipped scum I'd not be considering the other.

Nope. Pretty close to the opposite in fact. This is me saying that even if I find myself 80% sure that Korts is scum I shouldn't lynch him today because him being scum is predicated on someone else being scum. FMPOV, he pretty much can't be scum without HK also being scum, thus if I find myself sure on Korts scum I should look at Hopkirk.

So Korts is off the table for today in particular because Hopkirk would have to flip scum first? Okay, I see.

[Jingle]

I don't like that you jump through hoops in post 40 to call Korts scum, and I don't really believe that you did the mental calculus necessary to arrive at an organic conclusion. To me, it felt like you going into things looking to end up at a Korts-scum result to fit your narrative.
I don't like that you tried to explain away my reservations about post 40 with self-meta.

Alright. I'm satisfied with my reads.

I find it 99% likely that lynching Keychain and Hopkirk in either order will lead to a town win. I'd prefer to lynch Key first, based entirely on the strength of my insanity townread. I don't really have time to elaborate today, but I can if you would all like to wait.

Wrt 40, why would the amount of pregame meta I did have anything to do with my alignment? Do you have a reason to believe that Jingle-scum would be more likely to have read up on all the players than Jingle-town? Does anything about my play (specifically my push on Ari) suggest I wouldn't be prone to elaborate reads? Does anything about my personality suggest that? Do you have any basis other than not liking it to think it means I'm scum?

Further, the handwaving your meta read with self meta point doesn't make any sense. First, what I did wasn't handwave your read, but rather provide an alternative reason and admit that yes, I am a very dramatic player. I'm fairly certain no one will attempt to contend that point. At the point you expressed your gut read, it made sense to me. I had done a lot of talking without really saying much. I had done a lot of empty grand gestures. I've since explained why.

With that in mind:

VOTE: Keychain

Hopefully I didn't just lose us the game.

[Keychain]

God, I hope you're scum Jingle.

It doesn't make sense to me that you'd get Reck to hold off on voting Hopkirk only to say

I find it 99% likely that lynching Keychain and Hopkirk in either order will lead to a town win. I'd prefer to lynch Key first, based entirely on the strength of my insanity townread.

How does your insanity townread change who you want to lynch first? I don't know why you as town would be jumping to vote before Reck can put a vote on someone you're 99% sure is scum.

[xRECKONERx]

Jingle, I'd much rather that vote sit on Hopkirk before people check in.

[insanity018]

Woah - a fair bit has happened.

Okay Jingle, why are you voting Keychain over Hopkirk? You say you are 99% sure that Hopkirk and Keychain are scum. You're also 80% sure that Korts is scum, but think Korts is only scum with Hopkirk. From what you've been saying, I would have thought that Hopkirk makes more sense to vote.

I also can't find anywhere in the past 2 game days where you've spoken about any read of Keychain. So, please elaborate on why you think she is most likely to be scum? I see that you have asked her questions in 384/386 regarding ruling out scumteams. Did you see something in her posts or in her answers?

@insanity018- Talk to me about me. I'd like to resolve this read if possible, so that we can move on.

I feel conflicted about you mostly because I often feel I completely don't follow your thought process or understand what reactions you are looking for. For example, the Ray thing on Day 1 and the above - why Keychain?

[insanity018]

I feel more confident that Korts and Hopkirk are scum here. Hopkirk's progression on his read of Korts doesn't really make sense to me.

I kind of had you as default scum due to overlooking the Reck/Key/BV possibility- which now seems more likely.
I'd been putting off the isos. Now that I've actually read them, my thoughts have changed.

From what I can see, your Korts/Keychain/BV scumteam was based on a case that Korts and Keychain had scummy associatives/interactions with each other. So, why do you now see a scumteam where Korts has been substituted for Reck?

Why RBK: Rereading you and I was comfortable to eliminate you/Insanity. Assuming Reck/Korts aren't scum together leaves two scumteams. BV/Key are in every likely scumteam. Therefore, changing from Korts to Reck makes that the scumteam.

Why Reckoner>Korts

Korts side:
- Interactions with Luca could come from either alignment, but are more likely to come from town given Luca is scum.
- I like his vote on me in 275. Shows he’s actually looking at things rather than going for the mislynch purely for the mislynch (like Keychain).
- Reads seem reasonable consistent, if not fully developed on some slots.
- Interactions with BV/Keychain are better than Reckoner’s.
- A lot of his stuff is pretty nullish, but it’s not scummy-null like I thought.

Reckoner side:
- Dislike 55 as I have all game. Keychain/Korts interactions are especially bad given he puts them as null/light scum with no real follow up. Also still dislike the way he makes the Jingles scumread. The CoA scumread/Insanity townread without pushing it feels like he’s waiting/opportunistic for whatever wagon happens. Fits with his general sitting on the sidelines. This is reinforced by him not trying to interact with me or to push me.
- Flip to Ari is badly justified. Doesn’t consider Ari relative to Jingle- who he was voting just beforehand.
- Reads feel like they’re strategic/flexible rather than consistent. Eg, votes Korts in 281 for a weak attack on me- despite Reckoner seeming to have a scumread on me there. I don’t understand where his Jingle read went either.
- Claims in 289 he didn’t realize Ray had been replaced by TGP when he voted Ray in 233. Weird given he says in 287 that Ray didn’t do a lot, and Reck seems to have scumreads. Not a major point, but seems inconsistent/like the above. Don’t like the way he interacted with TGP in this exchange, as I mentioned at the time.
- 338/9- Says scum within 4 (Korts/Insanity/him/me)- very suspicious Key/BV are not in this pile. Comes out with BV/Key in the ‘could be scum but lets lynch other people first’ position. 339 hasn’t had the promised follow up after 6 days which fits with the other two scum who aren’t posting substance and waiting to see what happens.

I kind of had Reckoner as scum at the day start then forgot about him for some reason when I agreed Korts/Reckoner were unlikely to be together. I hadn’t actually reisod Korts or Reckoner properly until now. I think I was getting some of Korts/Reckoner mixed up with one another actually.

What do you like about Korts' vote on you in 275? It seemed like a pretty weak reason to vote someone to me.
As you have previously spoken about not liking the interactions between Korts and Keychain, why do you now believe that their interactions are better than Reck?
Well, you have re-iso'd Reck recently. In 356, you stated that you re-read Reck and said you now liked him as town. Why did you like him as town in that read through and why has he switched back to being a scumread now?

356: This is where the problem happened. I reread your iso

specifically

looking for Korts interactions. I was mistakenly only looking for scumteams that contained Korts (literally just ctrl/f Korts). I’d overlooked other possibilities. I concluded you were town since you/Korts seemed unlikely. You moved to scum when I realized Korts isn’t confirmed scum since there’s scumteams that don’t contain Korts. I’d been treating Korts as confirmed scum for some reason up to this point.

What. In 356, you specifically said

'Liked it

,

and

seemed less likely with Korts than I was thinking' so Reck is 'probably town'. So, what were you liking something aside from the Korts interactions?

I'm not sure where to put Hopkirk backing down from me as confscum so easily. It initially pinged my radar, but giving up on bad logic as soon as it is called out

can

be a reasonable pro-town move. It seems, however, that rather than just demoting my guaranteed position in all his scumteam calls, he's now transitioned his main focus to a scumteam without me? Not sure how that works.

Not a fan of Korts' response either. I would expect someone to be more suspicious about someone doing a 180 on their slot without any noticeable reasons, whereas Korts seems quite non-committal here.

Korts, where do you see Hopkirk giving up on bad logic after being called out?

[Jingle]

Okay Jingle, why are you voting Keychain over Hopkirk? You say you are 99% sure that Hopkirk and Keychain are scum. You're also 80% sure that Korts is scum, but think Korts is only scum with Hopkirk. From what you've been saying, I would have thought that Hopkirk makes more sense to vote.

I've decided the chance you are scum is remote enough to not need consideration. The only way Key is town is if you are scum or my pairing reads are flawed. None of the arguments for my pairing reads being flawed have been in any way substantial or convincing. Hence, Key is scum.

UNVOTE:

For Reck's sake. I don't foresee anything changing for me readswise.

[Hopkirk]

@Blackvoid: If you haven’t been able to catch up on 17 pages in 3 weeks you should sub out.

@Jingles: Why do you have Reckoner as town?

@Insanity (from here on in): You’re saying my read progression on Korts doesn’t make sense. Why is that more likely to come from scum (who have daytalk)? Scum are more likely to be consistent than town in this scenario, especially given a lack of incentive not to be. This is especially true for me. My last completed town game shows me radically change my reads after a reread and getting all 3 scum in 4 picks after previously townreading 2 of them.

I like the vote because it means he actually put the

effort in to verify

what I was saying. If he was just going for the easy mislynch I really don’t see him doing that. Scum-Keychain is going for the easy mislynch at the same time.

I said I reread Reckoner and liked him as town because

as I’ve already said

I was working from the point of ‘korts is scum’ and used ctrl/f: korts in Reckoners’ ISO and didn’t think they looked scum together.

How are there no notable reasons. I did a

COMPLETE REREAD OF FOUR ISOS AND COMPLETE REEVALUATION FROM SCRATCH

. The intial Korts read had

NOTHING FROM HIS ISO BACKING IT

and you’re acting like I said I had a guilty on him at day start.

[Hopkirk]

I am equally happy with any of Reckoner/Key/BV being lynched here.
Unless Jingle is scum, they will all flip scum.

[Hopkirk]

Reckoner hasn't even tried to case me here.
Only reason I can see for people being suspicious of me right now is that I reread the game in lylo and reevaluated. If anyone currently thinks that's a scumtell then reevaluate your play postgame- even if you reevaluate and town wins.

[xRECKONERx]

I don't need to case you, I just need to get you lynched. And I've already given points as to why you're scum -- mostly due to your weak push on me out of nowhere (and I convinced myself the person that picks it up and runs with that is scum before you even did it), partially due to your predecessor's play, and partially due to interactions.

[insanity018]

Okay Jingle, why are you voting Keychain over Hopkirk? You say you are 99% sure that Hopkirk and Keychain are scum. You're also 80% sure that Korts is scum, but think Korts is only scum with Hopkirk. From what you've been saying, I would have thought that Hopkirk makes more sense to vote.

I've decided the chance you are scum is remote enough to not need consideration. The only way Key is town is if you are scum or my pairing reads are flawed. None of the arguments for my pairing reads being flawed have been in any way substantial or convincing. Hence, Key is scum.

UNVOTE:

Hmm, okay, I had to go back and check your list of possible scumteams to see this.

It is definitely possible that Keychain is scum, I'm just more confident with the others.

--

@Hopkirk, you made a strong case of Korts and Keychain being scum together based on ISO-ing them both.

Spoiler: Hopkirk's posts

Korts/Keychain from Kort’s iso.

Korts mentions Keychain a couple of times early game, but not substantively. Doesn’t really follow up on anything. Interactions are not with Keychain, they’re just about Keychain without trying to directly engage. Differs quite a lot to other interactions he has.

209 is Korts responding to Keychain’s request he outline his scumcase on Ari. Keychain does not follow up once Korts outlines the case. Neither seem to care. The interaction there seems fake. Seems like Key pushing for the Ari wagon by getting a partner to justify it since he can’t. Aligns with Keychain not making any effort to push against the Ari wagon despite allegedly townreading Ari.

277 is the next and last time Korts mentions Key. They’re working together on the TGP lynch this time.

At no point in the game does Korts really express a read on Keychain. He doesn’t try to interact with him or read him, and doesn’t seem to care. Given his multiple comments on even BV/TGP, it seems unlikely he’d be happy not to have any thoughts on or interactions with Keychain.

@Insanity: If TGP was in the game right now then he’d already be voting someone. Given his behaviour yesterday as town, we just wouldn’t be able to win a lylo with him in it. Clearly not going to actually do/be receptive to analysis if she can’t even answer a question in a week. His behaviour was scummy, but I’ve played with him before- which is why I was cautious about actually lynching him since he seemed like he could still just be a hard VI. In the end I thought he was plausible scum since he seemed more VI than I’d seen him before, but it was part policy that I wanted him lynched towards the end. Although I could have lynched him at pretty much any point for a week. Legitimately wanted to hear properly from him before I could fully sort him, so my scumread of him even towards the end was partially policy I suppose.

Keychain reread- (any use of she/her not referring to Key here is a mistake as I initially got Key’s gender wrong and had to find/replace. This might mistakenly confuse/change meanings in parts I missed).

Keychain has Korts as scummy early on (49). Interactions with Korts in 84 by answering Kort’s question about CoA, but doesn’t ask Kort’s anything. Reads Korts as null/wants to sort at the end of 84. I really don’t get the sense from this post that she was legitimately trying to sort Korts. Earlier scumminess she said Korts had also disappears here without any clear intent to follow up. Her interactions with Jingle between here and the next section feel a bit empty since I don’t get the impression Keychain is developing her reads during it.

Townreads Korts after reading in 131. Does not appear to have reread Luca as well and doesn’t look like she intends to so only rereading Korts here feels like it’s intentional/partner. Makes a couple of points for Korts town- general points, but scumpoints on Korts are given specifics. Pointing out specific points here gives the impression it was easier for him to find evidence for scum Korts, yet read Korts as town- which makes me think partners. Similarly in 145 Insanity questions Keychain and she can quote more things to support the scumreasons on Korts. Yet she’s still pushing CoA at this point when it sounds like she has reason to be pushing Korts. Instead, she’s not really trying to interact with Korts.

I still don’t like her Ari town stuff in 180. Saying ‘why would scum ever be this honest’ doesn’t strike me as something town says. Obviously if Ari had been scum there she’d be saying it since she’d been on L1 for a while, and would be willing to try anything not to get lynched. Despite being against it here, she said in 168 she agreed with part of the case- though this part was one of, if not the, most significant parts of the case on Ari. Further, despite ‘not being a fan of this lynch’ Key isn’t doing anything to actually oppose the lynch. Her posting at this point is entirely devoid of any attempts to push someone over than Ari/form a counterwagon. I get a strong sense here that Key is just saying she doesn’t like the Ari wagon while actually being happy it’s going through- or rather her actions in regard to it going through don’t resemble her words against it. Backing off from me I could definitely see as an excuse/not legitimate if he really townread Ari.

Next interactions with Korts is in 198, just a quick question about her read on Ari. Doesn’t seem to be interested in developing the Korts read from earlier. 210- Reading the end here as ‘if someone doesn’t hammer soon I’m flipping this read and hammering’. Don’t see much development on reads over day two. Supports the TGP lynch D2 after being off the wagon D1 is consistent with Scumchain. The specific post quoted isn’t the worst of TGP’s evasion.

I’m now thinking Korts/Keychain/BV (BV being kind of POEish)

Re-reading and re-evaluating is all good, but the 180 on Korts feels rather convenient and makes me think a you/Korts scumteam.

What were the main things you thought about Korts that made you suspect him at the start of today? (These things being so scummy that you couldn't see a scumteam without him)
On your re-read, what specific things in Korts' ISO did you find that made you completely re-think your read? (These things making it so that Korts now isn't in your likely scumteam at all)

[Hopkirk]

I don't really see why scum-Hopkirk starts the day by attacking Korts then switches without explaining why. It's less suspicious to either pick one way at the start. The only value is in creating wifom, which doesn't outweigh the cost in bringing suspicion. It's objectively not the best way of making you think Hopkirk/Korts is unlikely. I'd expect scum-Korts to not accept scum-Hop's flip so easily. Scum have daytalk so plans would only look crazy if intended- and there's no incentive to do so since 'looking crazy' is less effective/draws attention that we wouldn't want.

My preference is to lynch BV/Key since Korts is still 10% scum in place of Reckoner.

What were the main things you thought about Korts that made you suspect him at the start of today?

A kind of bad gut feeling formed due to vague memories, along with not having written out a list of teams or reread the game. I didn't have a good reason.
I'm the kind of person who'll post a stream of consciousness.

Though process
-Don't need to reread Insanity.
-Reread Jingle. Solid town. Scum is in (Korts/Reckoner/BV/Key)
-Reckoner/Korts is least likely. Confirms key/BV.
-Key/Korts is likely. BV/Korts is not very likely (bought more of what Jingles said on a reread/proper read).
-BV/Reck is likely. Key/Reck is likely.
-Reckoner's iso is bad alone. Korts' iso is bad alone.
-BV/Key/Reck

I've already gone through specifics in previous posts a few times to explain those things. Could you look at those then ask me about gaps rather than just having me repeat it.