Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Incognito]

I still stand by it, except I thought the wagon was bigger than 3. So I must say that 1 scum or maybe none.

So you stand by it, you say, but now it might be 1 scum or none as opposed to the 1 or 2 scum you said had been attacking Jitsu? That still doesn't really answer the question. Which of those people (Patrick, Erg0, or Guardian) do you believe to be the scum and

why

do you think that?

=======================================

Votecount #16

opie - 4 (Adel, Oman, ChaosOmega, pickemgenius)

Jitsu - 3 (Erg0, Patrick, Guardian)
Guardian - 2 (opie, Incognito)
Oman - 1 (Jitsu)
Xyltixlm - 1 (Matt_S)
Matt_S - 1 (Xylthixlm)

Not voting - 0 (nobody)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
=======================================

[Jitsu]

at this point, if not Jitsu, opie seems

great

Why?

I've heard and agree with the assertion that Opie extending his vote on you (on the Erg0 wagon) to Oman and Adel is scummy. But "with so many other potential lynch targets" around (your own words) why do you think Opie is a

great

candidate? I haven't finished my re-read so maybe I'm forgetting something, but what else is there to the case on Opie?

I'm still interested in Adel's response to my 380, also.

I'm not defending Opie here -- in fact, I am trying to determine if I should vote for him. But I'm not quite sold on him yet. I'm willing to listen to a sales pitch.

[Jitsu]

Adel, can you say who you think Opie's partners are?

Matt_S seems awefully likely.

@Guardiuan: I'll go through all of it later, but I think Jitsu should be an investigation target and not a lynch.

I'm reading from your tone and phrasing here that you are leaning toward Guardian being town. Is that correct?

Also, you said in in 391:

I'm starting to think that the Jitsu is the scum-backed alternative to their buddy getting the axe. I am not happy about it. Oman and I are drinking the same Kool-Aid on this one.

Something doesn't quite fit for me here.

For sake of argument, let's hypothetically assume that there are at least three scum in the game, citing past meta.

So Opie and Matt_S are the likeliest scumpair? Alright -- let's assume that's truealso. If I read your first sentence in 391 correctly, it sounds like you are starting to think one of the people voting me is a third scum scum? Is that a correct assessment?

If one of the people voting me

is

a third scum, then how does Incognito fit in to all of this (from your assertion in 252 that he is scum also)? Do you still think Incognito is likely scum?

I don't really think you are scum right now, but I'd like you to clarify your current thoughts.

[Guardian]

at this point, if not Jitsu, opie seems

great

Why?

I remember finding him suspicious earlier, and feeling that I was justified in doing so. He overreached, and tried to be seen as finding scum while not really being effective.

why do you think Opie is a

great

candidate?

I feel/felt really strongly about it. I see borh Matt_S-scum and Incog-scum as contingent upon/less likely than opie-scum, too.

maybe I'm forgetting something, but what else is there to the case on Opie?

Adel's case in 136 is pretty good.

I'm not defending Opie here -- in fact, I am trying to determine if I should vote for him. But I'm not quite sold on him yet. I'm willing to listen to a sales pitch.

Maybe Adel can help out there? Note: I realize I'm being suspicious of him while not doing the grunt-work.

--

I'm reading from your tone and phrasing here that you are leaning toward Guardian being town. Is that correct?

It seems she is not only leaning, but that she

knows

it:

Guardian, why are you not motivated to respond to Incognito?

I thought no one would ever ask.

I'm busy, and many of his points are correct. I've followed Adel a lot. I ask many questions. I disagree that those things are indicative of my being scum, but I can't refute the facts. Also, while I don't find his case convincing, I think it would take quite a bit of time to respond to in sufficient depth to come anywhere near refuting.

Defenses are overrated anyway. Especially since not many are convinced by Incognito, and he is "100% sure" I am scum, I don't see how it would be a valuable expenditure of my time and effort to make arguments that aren't going to change many people's minds about anything. About 3 people have an inclination I'm scum right now, and I don't think responding to Incognito's case would do much, possibly reducing the number suspicious of me to 2 people from 3.

My time is much more valuably spent trying to find scum right now.

I think he is right and that we should all support him

Also Adel is your 289 completely serious?

yes. I am all about keeping the signal to noise ratio down. If I didn't know that you were town I would probably take a different stance.

I decided not to press on this earlier, but I am interested how she "knows".

---

Pat: In general, I tend to agree... But here, I find Jitsu both buddying and asserting knowledge others are town.

[Jitsu]

@Adel: Just to be clear, I'm not asking you to name all (hypothetical) 3 or 4 scum and trying to hold you to it, because that's really not fair. What I'm trying to do is reason out the scenario(s) you have presented to try to judge for myself whether or not you've reached the correct conclusions from your observations.

@Everyone: Regarding the post above, a "scum scum" is a scum that's slightly scummier than a normal scum.

[Jitsu]

I decided not to press on this earlier

, but I am interested how she "knows".

Why did you decide that?

[Guardian]

I decided not to press on this earlier

, but I am interested how she "knows".

Why did you decide that?

I'm even unsure if we should be pressing now -- what if it is somehow role-based?

[Jitsu]

I'm even unsure if we should be pressing now -- what if it is somehow role-based?

I don't believe that.

I merely stated that I thought Adel was leaning toward you being town. In response,

you

asserted that she

knew

you were innocent, and cited detailed examples why.

If you are innocent and knew or suspected all along that Adel had role-based information that you were innocent, why, as town, would you risk outing her by asserting that she knew you were town and give detailed examples why?

[Guardian]

My suspicion that Adel has role based information has decreased significantly.

Why? She hasn't been very helpful since post 136 --> less pro-town.

[Adel]

unvote, vote Guardian

[Guardian]

o.O

[pickemgenius]

I don't want to lynch Jitsu.

Let's lynch scum opie now.

[Guardian]

Why, Adel? That seems to have come out of nowhere.

[Adel]

call it a pre-emptive OMGUS vote. You should've supported the opie wagon, now I'm going to get you.

[Guardian]

I did support the opie wagon, still do, and am not interested in voting you over Jitsu, OR opie.

So I need a better explanation that.

[Xylthixlm]

With regard to Post 340, why do you want to discuss the definition of arbitrary again?!

Guardian was one of the people who thought "arbitrary" meant "random". He then went on to use the word himself to not mean "random". I find that incredibly amusing.

I don't have enough time to analyze the thread right now. I'll get to it later if I'm not too tired, but it might have to wait for the weekend.

[Jitsu]

My suspicion that Adel has role based information has decreased significantly.

Why? She hasn't been very helpful since post 136 --> less pro-town.

That doesn't make any sense either way.

If you are innocent and really thought Adel is scum, you shouldn't have been unsure to press the issue.

If you are innocent and did think there was even a ghost of a chance Adel was town with role based information that you were innocent (which is what you seemed to assert), you shouldn't have said anything, to avoid possibly outing her.

Unvote

(if necessary)

Vote: Guardian

Now who's caught?

[Guardian]

Aha -- but what if I *changed my mind*.

You're still caught, not me.

[Jitsu]

I don't think so, Guardian.

Regardless of what you may have thought before in 289, if you really thought Adel were scum *now*, you should not have been unsure to press the issue because she might have role based information. You should have attacked her with it, or at least waited to hear her response to your 403.

If you thought *now* that there were any chance at all she is innocent with role based knowledge that you were innocent, then you should not have said anything.

It doesn't matter if you changed your mind from earlier or not.

[Guardian]

So -- maybe I shouldn't have said anything/waited, any played badly?

[ChaosOmega]

Guardian: I think Adel's voting you because your past couple posts have been terrible. You've just been stumbling over yourself and alternating between backing Adel 100% and suggesting Adel is not helping the town.

I find it somewhat humorous that Adel jumped off the wagon to vote someone for not being on the wagon.

I'm keeping my vote where it is, but I'm more suspicious of Guardian. You've just made a lot of posts that strike me the wrong way.

[Guardian]

I think maybe Adel's scared of me being scum cuz I was such a gangsta in Multiball. But I'm not scum here. Move along, nothing to see.

Sorry for striking wrongly .

[Matt_S]

I'm seeing something a little odd.

I am now 100% certain

huge scumtell. 100% bullshit is more like it.

This is the sloppiest scum team I've

ever

seen.

How was what Incognito did any different than Adel saying he knows Guardian is town? Is it simply the fact that one is accusing and one is defending?

And it's even odder that you vote the person you "know" is town.

FOS Adel

[Adel]

because I know the motive behind mine. I'm willing to do slightly scummy things to get a reaction or an absence of a reaction out of people. My post in response to Incognito was slightly based on truth and slightly built to troll a reaction out of him. Based upon his reaction to my post I am not pretty comfortable with the idea that he stands an above average chance of being scum. The biggest difference between my post and Incognito's is that mine got a pretty good reaction out of Guardian. I think that is notable. Among other things, it establishes a greater likelihood that Incognito is scum if Guardian is.

Right now I have to competing theories for who is scum:

theory one

If

Guardian is scum

then

Incognito is scum

theory two

If

opie is scum

then

Matt_S is scum
and

if

Matt_S is scum

then

Incognito is scum

[Erg0]

I'm starting to think that my case on Jitsu fails under the "don't assume your fellow players are dense" rule.

Unvote

There's a fair bit of material on the last couple of pages, which I will digest before I decide where to go next.