Mini 1586: shoot yourself in the foot mafia (game over)

[CooLDoG]

ohh I thought it was a mandatory shot. I remember something about that...

Cause I have to submit a kill by tomorrow.

That is where I got that info.

So no mandatory shots gives the town a huge as long as we don't lynch a gun giver.

[CooLDoG]

This setup can never be run again because essentially with no scum NK it becomes super town favored. Just don't shoot and it is like a doc save every night. The 72 hour limit is obviously there so not too much can be made of a vig shot. But, barring some form of scum power role the no kill strategy, or directed next day kill strategy would have killed this setup if we knew what we were dealing with.

let's look at how some scenarios play out. Because I know there is an optimal play here that we can figure out:

Here are some scenarios...

Spoiler:

if two scum:
right now: 2 scum 4 town
Tomorrow: (lynch scum) 1 scum 4 town
Tomorrow: (Lynch town) 2 scum 3 town
Tomorrow: (No lynch) 2 scum 4 town

Possibilities after

two

kills tomorrow:

1) 4 town (first shot hits with scum lynch today OR 2 scum shots NL)
2) 3 town (first shot misses, hit scum scum second shot with scum lynch today, OR 2 scum shots after town lynch today)
3) 1 scum 2 town ( 2 town shots after scum lynch OR 1 scum shot and 1 town shot after town lynch OR Scum shot town shot after NL )
4) 2 scum 1 town ( 2 town shots after town lynch or NL)

From here NL is a bad idea in my opinion. It only produces town victory on a double correct shot, while lynching town still leaves that open.

If there are two scum lynching today is optimal.

Spoiler:

If three scum:
right now: 3 scum 3 town
Tomorrow: 3 scum 3 town (there is no way to lynch)

Possibilities after two kills tomorrow:

1 scum 3 town (after double scum shot)
2 scum 2 town (after scum shot and town shot)
3 scum 1 town (double town shot)

one argument for an NL today that we may consider: IF there are three scum then attempting to lynch can and, if not on scum, will lead to 3 scum 2 town which potentially ends the game.

Personally I think we lynch today and see what happens in the morning. If there are three scum, then we still can get luck shots.

What the town really needs to know is if there is a TOWN role that gives guns.

Because if we have one of those then we have the option of only killing one person at a time.

Possible mechanics for "giving" guns:

Spoiler:

1) Secret Vig rolls. (if this is the case I will rage at the end of the game at the bastard that myo is)
2) 1 town gun giver 1 scum gun giver (seems most likely and balanced given a closed set-up.)
3) 2 town gun givers (unlikely because deprives scum of all control... unless there is some major fucking scum power)
4) 2 scum gun givers (unlikely because scum can give to each other and essentially get two kills in one)
5) Rob is an asshole and is actually a vig, elyse got a gun from scum or town gun giver. (unlikely because rob would not lie at this point)
6) Rob is scum with a day kill elyse got a gun from town. (unlikely for reason stated in previous post)
7) 2-two man scum teams each with a gun giver (interesting but pure speculation... also improbable due to the number of players left without a scum kill, but stranger things have happened)

^ the above is why I think 1 town gun giver and 1 scum gun giver is probably how it goes. Anything else is unlikely or bastard.

[CooLDoG]

sorry for the back to back posting but I forgot to popcorn...

Jargonaut claim next

also for reffernce:
Who - VT
CooLDoG - VT
Rob - VT
Empking - VT

[Rob14]

Actually, CooLDog, I am a dayvig.

[Rob14]

Just kidding. The look on your face, though...

[Rob14]

Consider two scum gun givers that cannot give guns to other scum. I think that's the most likely, and you don't seem to have considered it.

[Jargonaut]

I'm a VT. Popcorn HD.

@ CooLDog: What do you mean "kill one person at a time." When do kills not happen one at a time?

It seems like you are thinking that the scum gun giver wouldn't be able to give themselves/their partner a gun. Wouldn't that be way too town sided? Town would potentially have control over every kill.

@Rob: In a situation like that, wouldn't scum lose in a 2v2 situation? That seems too broken to be likely.

[Rob14]

Unless the mod makes their win condition out to be a win in a 2v2, which is likely.

I don't think it's THAT town-sided to have scum control two kills by proxy (i.e. decide who gets the gun) if town has no PRs whatsoever. It's basically mountainous (because this WAS an 11p) with an extra mechanic of two kills by proxy instead of one scum kill.

[CooLDoG]

Just kidding. The look on your face, though...

Consider two scum gun givers that cannot give guns to other scum. I think that's the most likely, and you don't seem to have considered it.

Yes, I think that is a possibility. But they can't give it to themselves in that case because otherwise that power is just too much.

@ CooLDog: What do you mean "kill one person at a time." When do kills not happen one at a time?

It seems like you are thinking that the scum gun giver wouldn't be able to give themselves/their partner a gun. Wouldn't that be way too town sided? Town .

If both submit to the mod before the mod has done the other's kill then both will happen at the same time. One will have to kill and then wait for the mod to post the flip.

I mean, I personally think there is a town gun giver (either HD or who [possibly he didn't want to claim a power role that early because the shot at him wasn't for sure]), which would leave open the possibility for scum to give a gun to themselves.

If scum control both of the kills then there is no way in hell they get to control both of them. So my opinion is scum can probably give ONE gun to themselves but they decided not to both days.

(because this WAS an 11p)

shit, didn't realize this. 3 scum is very unlikely at this point. So

the play is to lynch today.

[Human Destroyer]

hi I'm 1-shot bp

[Rob14]

Sounds like a pretty cool role for scum in this setup. It meshes extremely well with the idea of scum giving both kills to town. Or really with any form of setup that we've discussed that has two townies taking the shots.

Vote: HD

[CooLDoG]

^ I'm with rob on this guys. One shot does not seem very probable. The probability of hitting is low enough and then compound it by only having one shot.

vote: HD

@who, do you stand by your VT claim?

[Rob14]

That's everyone done with claims, right?

[Human Destroyer]

No, I'm a town 1-shot bp.

And considering it's probably the only power role we have (i.e. unless who lied) I don't see why you would want to lynch me.

[Rob14]

Because you miscalculated your fake-claim. Two town vigs (even if scum chooses who they are) AND a 1-shot BP town makes no sense unless scum have crazy PRs ... which wouldn't make any sense, because we have no investigative roles, no what exactly would their PRs do?

Thanks for explaining why you claimed, though, Apparently you thought being the only PR would somehow confirm you, yes?

[Who]

^ I'm with rob on this guys. One shot does not seem very probable. The probability of hitting is low enough and then compound it by only having one shot.

vote: HD

@who, do you stand by your VT claim?

Yes I do.

Has everyone claimed at this point? If so, I agree that given the claims HD is probably scum.

[Human Destroyer]

Because you miscalculated your fake-claim. Two town vigs (even if scum chooses who they are) AND a 1-shot BP town makes no sense unless scum have crazy PRs ... which wouldn't make any sense, because we have no investigative roles, no what exactly would their PRs do?

Well a) this is an experimental game, so I wouldn't be shocked if scum had crazy PRs, and b) I don't really give a shit if it makes sense in the setup, it's my role. >.>

Thanks for explaining why you claimed, though, Apparently you thought being the only PR would somehow confirm you, yes?

or, y'know, town 1-shot bp is *gasp* actually my role

y'know, I did softclaim before we actually massclaimed, I'm honestly surprised you didn't pick up on it since I addressed it directly at you

[Human Destroyer]

I was going to come out voting Who but I kinda want to vote Elyse now

Rob's killing Elyse so I don't have to do this now

Hint: We're all VTs and myko is a bastard mod.

myko is a total bastard but I guarantee you he's not that much of a bastard

(<3 you myko)

Oh, I mean all of the town.

I don't retract.

:cough:

[Human Destroyer]

in fact, if town controls the kills then scum has to have insane PRs anyway to compensate

it's possible scum has an extra kill they haven't used yet or something?

[CooLDoG]

actually a one-shot scum BP makes a lot of sense in this setup. Also that softclaim is dumb. Why is dumb? Because you can decide if it is a power role later or not. And it says nothing about a BP. For the record, a better fake claim would have been watcher or tracker. That shit would have made sense.

[Rob14]

Not if scum are the ones who direct who gets the kills, imo. That's likely the experimental piece. At least that's what I'm thinking. Either way, what makes more sense - a bulletproof townie or a bulletproof scum with two kills being taken by townies?

I'm going with bulletproof scum.

[Rob14]

I would like to reflect on the oddity that Cooldog started off this game with some crazy tunneling on me, and now we're acting like a town bloc. We're in sync, yo.

[CooLDoG]

for the record:
CooLDoG: VT
Rob: VT
Who: VT
Empking: VT
Jarg: VT
HD: 1-shot bullet proof

@rob, here is my mafia philosophy, if you act to a town win condition to the point that it would have cost you the game (or dramatically reduces the odds of a win) as scum then you are confirmed town. Once a player is confirmed town anything about him in the past is whipped away completely. If you second guess you lose games.

[Rob14]

Oh, I don't disagree.

[Jargonaut]

Idk why scum would fakeclaim bulletproof instead of gun giver or watcher like CooLDoG suggested. He's probably telling the truth.

The scum team probably has at least one PR imo, seeing as they don't directly issue the kills. BP does make sense for scum, but enough so that it makes me wonder why scum HD would claim it.

Clarify what Rob has done to make him confirmed town. Was it just shooting Elyse?