Newbie 917 - Game over.

For Newbie Games, which have a set format and experienced moderators. Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #350 (ISO) » Sun Mar 14, 2010 9:51 pm

Post by Civil Scum »

EBWOP: guy-suspicion = gut-suspicion

That was one letter away from being really funny ^^
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Post Post #351 (ISO) » Mon Mar 15, 2010 3:48 am

Post by Mustilicor »

Hm. I'd apologize for having wandered off over the weekend, but it looks like I didn't miss much.

Civil Scum: What was your reasoning for moving your vote? I can't say I have issues with the place you put it, but the way you did it seems peculiar. If you're down with either Andrius or Antifinity at the moment, what exactly was it that moved you away from the one effectively at L1?

"Let's see what happens when I do this" suggests reaction fishing. Were you looking for Andrius's reaction or Quintastic's? What do you think of the lack of reaction?


On that note, Quintastic: Considering Civil Scum's vote change, what is your reasoning in keeping your vote off of Antifinity now?


Andrius: Why is it you think it's unlikely we have a cop at this point? What makes you lean toward one end or the other of a 50/50 split? And what exactly is your purpose in digging in such a thing at all? Just a need to try to set things straight in your head, or do you think it would be useful to the town to figure something like this out?


I'm probably going to continue to be relatively quiet as this day peters out. I am pretty infinitely patient when it comes to things like this, so I'm just leaving my vote where it is unless Andrius nudges his scum-probability above Antifinity's or for some reason it starts to look like we won't get a lynch of one of my top suspects. Maybe I'll do a few isos if I get bored, but honestly I've been keeping track of posts all along so most of what I could do feels a little redundant at this point. If anyone wants me to lay out a thorough analysis of a particular person, I'd be glad to. For now, I just want to encourage the town members to put their vote on the individual THEY are most confident as scum and to use their minds as much as possible when placing this vote so the collective-intelligence concept is actually something we can rely on.
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Post Post #352 (ISO) » Mon Mar 15, 2010 4:53 pm

Post by Andrius »

SAMP! and Anti.
*facepalm*
I believe that TQO is the Doc. So, in my mind, we have a 50% chance at a Cop. I know, if you don't think he is, its a different scenario. But that's how I see it. Take it or leave it.

SAMP first.
I doubt there's a cop because its a 50:50. And if I thought there was a Cop, as Musti said, I wouldn't tell because I don't want scum like you to kill him. Simple as that.
SAMP! wrote: Well, yeah. What am I supposed to do, not bring up my case until the middle of the day for no particular reason?
Yeah. Would've made me feel a bit better. XD
SAMP! wrote: How is me unvoting you uncharacteristic? It's my fourth unvote.
Then your voting pattern can be seen as wishy-washy. /scummy

As for the picture of i-don't-know-who, it failed to make anyone laugh, and you effectively dodged the question. Answer please, without a sarcastic and/or smart-ass photo.
In regards to 340, I meant that if Anti says he's town, and gets lynched, townie dies. I'm town. If I'm lynched, I die. I believe TQO to be doc. If he is lynched, its a townie death. So yeah. There's "another" town death, besides for MMM and McGriddle.
Anti wrote: I don't want to hammer him until he has had a chance to explain this seeming error.
Gee, thanks. ^explained above^

Mustilicor, you have the right to have a weekend. XD
Musti, you told me to not say anything about my findings regarding the Cop. And I still see it as a 50:50 shot anyway.
Well, by finding someone the cop, I find someone who is definitely a pro-town player. So yeah. To sate my own need to research, and to try and help.

And Anti and TQO, you both are being pitiful [i admit, like I was] about dying and hammering someone. XD

Anyone paying attention to the votes now? Or should I wait for a votecount?

Exilon~ where are you~
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Post Post #353 (ISO) » Mon Mar 15, 2010 7:03 pm

Post by Antifinity »

Andrius wrote:SAMP! and Anti.
*facepalm*
I believe that TQO is the Doc.
Anti wrote: I don't want to hammer him until he has had a chance to explain this seeming error.
Gee, thanks. ^explained above^
That doesn't really explain anything. you're just saying you believe he is the doctor because you believe he is the doctor.

vote Andrius
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Post Post #354 (ISO) » Mon Mar 15, 2010 7:52 pm

Post by Super Awesome Mega Zord! »

Civil Scum wrote:There's really no way I can defend myself against that Samp.
Yeah I know, that's why I'd rather not vote based on guy suspicion :wink:. Well, that and the fact that it's unlikely to convince anyone else to get on. But I honestly don't see what else I can do.
Andrius wrote:
SAMP! wrote: How is me unvoting you uncharacteristic? It's my fourth unvote.
Then your voting pattern can be seen as wishy-washy. /scummy
but it's the same number of times you've unvoted :?

Which of my unvotes, if any, would you say were unwarranted?
Andrius wrote:As for the picture of i-don't-know-who, it failed to make anyone laugh
Oh no you di'int. I don't mind if you insult me personally, I can forgive insults of my family, and in moments of extreme self-restraint I can even let slights on my username slide. But call the "WRONG" scene from Superman Returns not funny?
We're going to have to take this outside.

Andrius wrote:and you effectively dodged the question. Answer please, without a sarcastic and/or smart-ass photo.
:| I don't see how I "dodged the question", seeing as how there, y'know, wasn't a question at all? All it was was an accusation, and a patently untrue one at that. As such, I choose to stick with Lex.
8-) You can call me Mad Cool Ballin' King! for short. 8-)
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Post Post #355 (ISO) » Mon Mar 15, 2010 8:22 pm

Post by Civil Scum »

Mustilicor wrote: Civil Scum: What was your reasoning for moving your vote? I can't say I have issues with the place you put it, but the way you did it seems peculiar.
I'm going to decline commenting on this for now.

I believe that vote puts Andrius at L-1.

A votecount would be nice.
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Post Post #356 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 3:56 am

Post by The Quintastic One »

To Civil Scum: Gut reads can be right alot of the time, but they are very hard to convince others of because that's all they are. Gut reads. I've heard many stories of townies that had gut reads of scum, who were actually scum, but had no evidence to back it up, and thus couldn't lynch who they really thought is scum.

That's a problem I am seeing in this game especially since the stagnation has caused even the vote counts to come to a grinding halt. Everyone is analyzing and rebutting and presenting counter arguments discrediting everyone's votes on everyone. Which makes reads alot harder to do. Since for the most part on this day both yourself, Mustlicor and Exilon have all been posting your thoughts and analysis but you're not really committing to a lynch or pushing for who you believe to be scummy. For the most part all of your activities this day have involved simply discrediting everyone elses suspicions instead of developing your own, which makes you look scummy. In my opinion.


So with your recent pressure on Exilon, and SAMP's gutread on you, let me get this straight. All throughout Day 2 all we have accomplished this entire game is the fact that we believe everyone, even the protecting role, to be scummy? We've basically come full circle to a stagnant and frozen spiral of confusion and uncertainty. Because if EVERYONE is painted as scum, then nobody can be voted as scum. And not to toot my own horn, but I've been the ONLY one with a consistent read on someone who's willing to stick to his opinion.

We could REALLY use a fresh vote count.
As there hasn't been one for several days now, and if it lasts through til the weekend with still no vote count, I'll probably have no choice but to believe this game has been abandoned.

Either way, I can't make a definitive action at this point until we DO get that vote count. Because if Antifinity ends up at L-1 then he's dead. But I can't make that choice until I know for sure I am dealing the killing blow on our first scum.
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Post Post #357 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 4:34 am

Post by Antifinity »

The Quintastic One wrote: And not to toot my own horn, but I've been the ONLY one with a consistent read on someone who's willing to stick to his opinion.
I've been consistent in claiming you're scum, I just moved my vote over to Andrius because I can't convince anyone yet.

If Andrius comes up scum, then his baseless belief that you must be the doctor takes on a whole new meaning, and hopefully we can then lynch you.
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Post Post #358 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 6:13 am

Post by Exilon »

GAAAH Internet people crashed my internet all day long yesterday and I haven't add much time to post anything really... I'll have to reread some, though.

I thought the “WROOOOOONG” was funny as hell. In fact, Samp! Has become my super-hero. I don’t have much time so I’ll do something quickly:

Let me answer my FoS, shall I?
Civil Scum wrote:Note that Exilon has clarified that for him, words like "odd" and "strange" also mean suspicious. And I don't think it's "interesting" at all. Although, interesting may have no 'suspicion-value' attached to it... I'd have a hard time believeing that, as interesting in this context means the same thing as 'odd', 'strange', or 'unusual.'
Oh, boy, this is going to be hard to explain. “Odd”, “strange” and “peculiar” are different from suspicious; but COULD be grounds for suspicion. Conversely, Suspicion implies, most of the time, that we found something “odd” about the way someone acted, assuming of course that person is town. In some cases, there’s stuff that aren’t odd but make sense if seen by a scummy point of view.

In that case, I found the read of himself “weird”, but not suspicious. As in, it doesn’t help his situation to provide that read, but it also doesn’t deteriorate his standing. I hope I’ve made myself a little more clear; but I know I have trouble explaining some stuff most of the time.
Civil Scum wrote:Fos: Exilon
The fluff-style of posting, having a good grasp of the game yet almost always -trying- to sound lost/confused, only voting for two people when "suspicious of everyone".
You seem to be repeating yourself, and this sentence just over-blows me. How can you state I’m “trying” to sound lost/confused? You’re not myself, so how can you state what I’m trying to do or not? If I sound lost/confused, it’s because I am. On the same note, how can you say I have a “good grasp of the game”? If you’re a townie, you’re as uninformed as me, and can’t be in any position to make that kind of judgement. So, unless there’s something you know, that I don’t, there’s no way you can say that.

Also, what the heck? I have already provided my reasoning for only voting two people while keeping my attention up on what’s surrounding me. Answer me this: if I suspect everyone, should I vote for everyone or for my top suspect? Therefore, that reasoning makes no real sense.
I’ll let you clarify whatever it is you feel I haven’t quite understood before I do something drastic.
Civil Scum wrote:Agrees again with the town without directly voting or pushing MMM's wagon. He says a couple times that he finds things he likes and dislikes about both of them, but wafflingly points out MMM, but never votes for him.
He was close to a lynch, and I wasn’t positive any of them would be scum. Hence “the scales are tipped”. As even MMM stated “ Are you willing to lynch me for that 10% today?” (to Mustilicor). No, I wasn’t willing to, and so I didn’t.
Civil Scum wrote:Coming into D-2 he votes for Andrius, for hammering essentially. Something he definitely could have predicted would be popular, or an easy/likely target.
I largely disagree with this. I thoroughly explained why I voted for Andrius, and why my vote hasn’t come out of him yet; and it wasn’t because he had hammered MMM, not mainly and certainly not “essentialy”. Likely target on not, Andrius quickly got over-shadowed by Quintastic, who was put under much more pressure almost at the same time.
Civil Scum wrote:
Exilon wrote: I don’t really have a “prime” suspect per se, I have some theories / possibilities and some pairings I believe make more sense than others. Since the day begun, I have been more keen on the Quintastic / Andrius / Samp! trio
Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but this makes it sound like you do suspect Quintastic. Or would like the town to suspect him.
And correct you I shall. I said “since the day began, I have been more keen on the following trio”, not only on each one of them individually. I also explained why each one of them was suspicious and the pros and cons of it. I suspect the pairing, but there’s also other things to consider. And at no point I even implied that I would like the town to suspect him. I was voicing my opinion explicitily, because Mustilicor had asked me.

Civil Scum wrote:So was it just the claim that made you no longer suspect him? What about a claim from a fairly scummy individual at L-1 makes you think he's town?
His inconsistency didn’t necessarily label him as “scum” as much as it labels him, as many call it, “anti-town”. The circumstances regarding the claim lowered my suspicions on him. The thing is that it seems unconceivable to me that a scum would deliberately do something day-1 as anticipation for day 2; even more something as specific as Quintastic did. Even if the day-1 post was just used conveniently (read: coincidence), it would be very lucky for someone to pull off a fakeclaim without a counterclaim.
Civil Scum wrote:
Exilon wrote:
And now there's also Antifinity. Of course, he is outright suspicious; in fact, he is so suspicious that it seems too obvious that he's scum.


Again, fueling an "investigation" without doing much legwork and without voting. He has a pretty visible habit of pushing wagons without voting and without being as direct as he could be in that way.

These things too, when he does talk about "the town's" suspects, they don't recur very often. Like he'll pick up on one, and he won't really mention it again the next post or down the road, the next post is usually a discussion of theory or some minorly related, tangential idea. Not about the person he was calling scummy the post before without the inclination of voting or pushing for their lynch. In fact, he seems to prefer to "call-off" lynches and ask for unvotes.
I’ve stated this before. I’m afraid to vote without feeling as safe as possible. Interestingly, I only asked for an unvote once, and it was actually called for, since I was afraid there would be a quick lynch; which, in the end, actually happened.

Why do you keep implying I’m “manipulating” the players? Only thing I'm doing is providing my opinion, just like everyone else does. If that manipulates people and is scummy, then this is chaos...
Feels like I've been here before.
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Post Post #359 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 9:09 am

Post by Civil Scum »

Quintastic wrote: ...but you're not really committing to a lynch or pushing for who you believe to be scummy.
I'm pretty sure that I've said I want to lynch Antifinity or Andrius. A couple times. I thought I'd made that quite clear.

I've also voted for both of them. If by comitting you mean going all out... I really don't know what you're talking about. Although I agree with this statement more as it relates to Mustilicor and Exilon<---especially.
Quintastic wrote: So with your recent pressure on Exilon, and SAMP's gutread on you, let me get this straight. All throughout Day 2 all we have accomplished this entire game is the fact that we believe everyone,
If I may borrow a page from Exilon...
<execute analysis>
Checking Grammar...... Check
Checking punctuation..... Check
Checking Spelling..... Check
Checking Sentence for Continuity.... Error
Checking Idea for Continuity..... Error

EndWhile thought is incongruous and sentence makes no sense
<End>
Antifinity wrote: I've been consistent in claiming [Quintastic] scum, I just moved my vote over to Andrius because I can't convince anyone yet.
He was at L-1 earlier, so some of us were convinced. But in light of the doctor claim we're shelving him/putting it on the back burner. You have been by and large the only person unaffected by the claim. Why is this? Have you talked about Quintastic's claim at all?!

Exilon wrote: Oh, boy, this is going to be hard to explain. “Odd”, “strange” and “peculiar” are different from suspicious; but COULD be grounds for suspicion. Conversely, Suspicion implies, most of the time, that we found something “odd” about the way someone acted, assuming of course that person is town. In some cases, there’s stuff that aren’t odd but make sense if seen by a scummy point of view.
Alright, so the words are completely ambiguous in terms of amount of "suspicion"
tied to each one. So we just need to ask, and you will go back and tell us what they meant in each case? That's conveinent. It wouldn't bother so much if I could get a good idea of where you stand on different players at different times from your posts and behavior, but it's "odd" how difficult that seems to be when reading you.

Exilon wrote: You seem to be repeating yourself
I find that I have to do that a lot. Is it better to say things once and trust that everyone heard it, remembers it, got it? Also, many times I do this because I feel like people aren't listening. That's not the case here with the "fluff" comment, but I digress. That observation (which is not only mine) is true and easily verifiable by reading the game.

Also a matter worth repeating I think, I find it very "odd" that you make these comments about how people could be scum, or seem scummy, and then 3 posts later you've dropped discussing them and it looks like you've forgot about them.
Exilon wrote: How can you state I’m “trying” to sound lost/confused? You’re not myself, so how can you state what I’m trying to do or not? If I sound lost/confused, it’s because I am. On the same note, how can you say I have a “good grasp of the game”? If you’re a townie, you’re as uninformed as me, and can’t be in any position to make that kind of judgement.
So, unless there’s something you know, that I don’t, there’s no way you can say that.
You haven't been wandering around going, 'Oh gee, who do I vote for, I'm so confused, I'm so lost...etc' But your posts are wandering. Sure you stick with a suspect (the one person you vote for each day?), but you don't push your wagons at all or try to further the arguments very much, outside of throwing in shots at new targets. And also specifically in regards to your comments about not being able to be sure, but then saying you wanted to be certain, but you weren't sure enough, etc. The way you sound, maybe lost/confused were the wrong words, but it's like YOU don't know who YOU want to go after. Or maybe you just aren't vocal/votical about it...

The bolded part is a pretty wild conclusion to come to based on what I had said. Very wild for you.
Exilon wrote: Also, what the heck? I have already provided my reasoning for only voting two people while keeping my attention up on what’s surrounding me.
I must have missed that. What was your reasoning again? Preferably off the top of your head.
Exilon wrote: Answer me this: if I suspect everyone, should I vote for everyone or for my top suspect? Therefore, that reasoning makes no real sense.
Um, except you didn't do either.... <--- !
Was thatguy00 your number 1 suspect for being inactive? He wasn't even lurking. He just didn't play.

And after that, you didn't unvote during or after the replacement. So then, McGriddles must have been a suspect of yours. Even though you were confused internally about who looked better between Samp and MMM. ??

Exilon wrote: He was close to a lynch, and I wasn’t positive any of them would be scum. Hence “the scales are tipped”. As even MMM stated “ Are you willing to lynch me for that 10% today?” (to Mustilicor). No, I wasn’t willing to, and so I didn’t.
Again, so rather than condemn the lynch on those grounds, you left your vote on McGriddles.

"Hi McGriddles"
"Thank you McGriddles"
'Pardon me while my vote stays on you McGriddles'

Exilon wrote: And correct you I shall. I said “since the day began, I have been more keen on the following trio”, not only on each one of them individually. I also explained why each one of them was suspicious and the pros and cons of it.
The trio = THOSE THREE PEOPLE INDIVIDUALLY

I don't think you should be thinking about it any other way.
Exilon wrote: The thing is that it seems unconceivable to me that a scum would deliberately do something day-1 as anticipation for day 2; even more something as specific as Quintastic did.
Well as someone has mentioned, it is not inconceivable. A scum carefully and thoughtfully setting up a later false-PR claim is a good strategy. And more likely imo than you seem to think.

It was specific, but also could have had other uses.
Exilon wrote: Why do you keep implying I’m “manipulating” the players?
I'm not sure what you mean exactly by my implying that you are manipulating people, but it does look to me like you give new wagons this little nudge and then watch and discuss and waffle as they pick up speed.
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Post Post #360 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 9:14 am

Post by Civil Scum »

Exilon wrote: I have a “good grasp of the game”?
Okay so I misunderstood that you misunderstood.

I meant a good grasp of the game of Mafia, not a good grasp of this particular game -Newbie 917.
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Post Post #361 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 9:17 am

Post by Andrius »

Anti wrote: That doesn't really explain anything. you're just saying you believe he is the doctor because you believe he is the doctor.

vote Andrius
It explains why I think the way I think. I'm not expecting you to believe it. I'm expecting you to accept the fact that
I
believe it. Simple as that.
SAMP! wrote: But call the "WRONG" scene from Superman Returns not funny? We're going to have to take this outside.
Yes, SAMP! we all find it incredibly funny. /sarcasm
Now please, drop it and move along.

Yeah, Mustilicor, I'm not liking the fact that you just decided to be "relatively quiet", since both me and Anti and TQO could be dying. I mean, let's assume that 2/3 of us is scum. You're still going to sit by and let a townie die? Come on. I decided to be more active, and now I'm at L1. :P
Mustilicor wrote: I'm probably going to continue to be relatively quiet as this day peters out.
TQO wrote: Mustlicor and Exilon have all been posting your thoughts and analysis but you're not really committing to a lynch or pushing for who you believe to be scummy. For the most part all of your activities this day have involved simply discrediting everyone elses suspicions instead of developing your own, which makes you look scummy. In my opinion.
I don't care if this makes me look more scummy by agreeing. I agree. I think that you two, especially Musti, who said that he's going to go silent, are making a mistake.

Well geez, I'm back at L1.
I guess I can throw out some last words, in case this is it.
Last Words, Take 2. XD
I claim VT.
I keep my vote on SAMP!
Yeah. Oh wait. There's only seven of us now. Nm. We are all posting semi-regulularly. Never mind. Let's see where this takes us.
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Post Post #362 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 9:19 am

Post by Andrius »

Oh hi there, Civil Scum. /ninja'd
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Post Post #363 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 9:28 am

Post by Andrius »

So I went back to page 13 and grabbed the old votecount.
So, if I'm correct, we are at:

Andrius (3): Exilon, CS, Anti
Antifinity (1): Mustilicor
SAMP! (1): Andrius
Civil Scum (1): SAMP!

Not voting (1): TQO

At deadline, I'll be lynched.
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Post Post #364 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 1:55 pm

Post by Mustilicor »

The Quintastic One wrote: Since for the most part on this day both yourself, Mustlicor and Exilon have all been posting your thoughts and analysis but you're not really committing to a lynch or pushing for who you believe to be scummy. For the most part all of your activities this day have involved simply discrediting everyone elses suspicions instead of developing your own, which makes you look scummy.

[...]

And not to toot my own horn, but I've been the ONLY one with a consistent read on someone who's willing to stick to his opinion.
I do not think having absolute confidence in your analysis and lambasting those who disagree is quite as pro-town as you believe it is. And how long you hold a conviction has nothing to do with how right it is.

This goes for Andrius too: I present my concerns as they come up, for the most part. Before placing my vote, I deliberately ensured unchallenged oddities remaining were addressed. I used all of this to decide that Antifinity was more worthy of my vote than any of my other considerations.

My argument is out there in my previous posts. I have nothing to add to it at this time. This is why I am more quiet than I have been, and why I will continue to be.

As for 'discrediting' others, the fact that I am done wading through old concerns for now does not mean I will not address new concerns that present themselves. I
will
pick apart suspect reasoning. Just because I am voting for someone else at the moment does not make others safe. I am still looking around for number two, or even numbers one and two if it turns out I am incorrect about Antifinity (I acknowledge this possibility, and this acknowledgment should not be assumed to mean anything except that I know my own damned limitations).


I am not going to sit around and let somebody who I do not suspect at all be lynched. But I am perfectly okay with the majority of the town having a first suspect in my second suspect, and I am not going to fight it.
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Post Post #365 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 2:21 pm

Post by Mustilicor »

Andrius wrote: Musti, you told me to not say anything about my findings regarding the Cop. And I still see it as a 50:50 shot anyway.
Ah. Well, you sort of did before I asked that. So I was asking what led you to your conclusion, because it seemed unusual for me. 50/50 translating to unlikely.

You know, something interesting to me is how you keep noting that this is all assuming we have a doctor. The thing is, though, whether we have a doctor doesn't change the probability of a cop...
unless you know the mafia set up.


Hm hm hm. You also addressed SAMP's playful threatening of you without addressing his actual question in the very same post.

Look at that. Just enough to put you in the lead in my analysis.

FoS Quintastic
if he turns up scum,
FoS Antifinity
if he turns up town.


If your count is correct, I do believe that makes me a hammer. Does anyone have any objections or last questions for him before I do this?
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Post Post #366 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 2:32 pm

Post by The Quintastic One »

Mustilicor wrote:
The Quintastic One wrote: Since for the most part on this day both yourself, Mustlicor and Exilon have all been posting your thoughts and analysis but you're not really committing to a lynch or pushing for who you believe to be scummy. For the most part all of your activities this day have involved simply discrediting everyone elses suspicions instead of developing your own, which makes you look scummy.

[...]

And not to toot my own horn, but I've been the ONLY one with a consistent read on someone who's willing to stick to his opinion.
I do not think having absolute confidence in your analysis and lambasting those who disagree is quite as pro-town as you believe it is. And how long you hold a conviction has nothing to do with how right it is.

This goes for Andrius too: I present my concerns as they come up, for the most part. Before placing my vote, I deliberately ensured unchallenged oddities remaining were addressed. I used all of this to decide that Antifinity was more worthy of my vote than any of my other considerations.

My argument is out there in my previous posts. I have nothing to add to it at this time. This is why I am more quiet than I have been, and why I will continue to be.

As for 'discrediting' others, the fact that I am done wading through old concerns for now does not mean I will not address new concerns that present themselves. I
will
pick apart suspect reasoning. Just because I am voting for someone else at the moment does not make others safe. I am still looking around for number two, or even numbers one and two if it turns out I am incorrect about Antifinity (I acknowledge this possibility, and this acknowledgment should not be assumed to mean anything except that I know my own damned limitations).


I am not going to sit around and let somebody who I do not suspect at all be lynched. But I am perfectly okay with the majority of the town having a first suspect in my second suspect, and I am not going to fight it.

So basically, TL;DR, "I'm going to continue to discredit other peoples suspicions no matter how valid they are thereby preventing anyone from being confident in their suspicions to continue to grind this game to a screeching halt"

Gotcha.
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Post Post #367 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 2:36 pm

Post by Andrius »

I think I'm done here.
Ummm... thanks for playing with me, everyone. :D
Musti wrote: Ah. Well, you sort of did before I asked that. So I was asking what led you to your conclusion, because it seemed unusual for me. 50/50 translating to unlikely.

You know, something interesting to me is how you keep noting that this is all assuming we have a doctor. The thing is, though, whether we have a doctor doesn't change the probability of a cop... unless you know the mafia set up.

Hm hm hm. You also addressed SAMP's playful threatening of you without addressing his actual question in the very same post.

Look at that. Just enough to put you in the lead in my analysis.
Yeah, I decided that I was going to be positive and all. XD
I have no idea how its setup, besides for the fact that there are 5-7 townies, due to my being a VT.
And yeah, I dodged his question, partly out of his general being elusive. :P
Gee, thanks. XD
Musti wrote: FoS Quintastic if he turns up scum, FoS Antifinity if he turns up town.
Well, it looks like Anti will be next, but you all won't believe me until I'm dead. :/

Last couple things. I'm glad you decided to be the hammer, Mustilicor.

Anyone have feedback for me, now, or should I just wait until the post-endgame for feedback?

Well, I'm done, I guess. Though I'd prefer to be shot instead of hung.
See, MMM? I'm next. See you soon.
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Post Post #368 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 2:50 pm

Post by Mustilicor »

Andrius wrote: I think I'm done here.
Ummm... thanks for playing with me, everyone. Very Happy
*salute* Feedback will have to wait from me. All depends on how you flip.
The Quintastic One wrote:So basically, TL;DR, "I'm going to continue to discredit other peoples suspicions no matter how valid they are thereby preventing anyone from being confident in their suspicions to continue to grind this game to a screeching halt"
More like, if your reasoning is shit, I am going to tell you so. If your reasoning is at least marginally acceptable, I'm probably not going to comment. Look around at how many attacks I haven't commented on, Quintastic. Does it really look like I'm being indiscriminate? And maybe I ninja'd you and you missed it, but, uh,
I'm about to hammer
. Encouraging a screeching halt is not what I'd call that.


And in case this is something any of you guys have trouble inferring or don't feel comfortable assuming: the exact reasoning for my movement from Antifinity to Andrius is that what put Antifinity ahead in the first place was a comment of his easily readable as a slip caused by knowing more than a town member should. Andrius now also has something easily be construed as this. When taken together with other reasoning you can find easily in my iso, it adds up to more than what I've got on Antifinity.
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Post Post #369 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 3:04 pm

Post by Andrius »

Andrius wrote: the exact reasoning for my movement from Antifinity to Andrius is that what put Antifinity ahead in the first place was a comment of his easily readable as a slip caused by knowing more than a town member should. Andrius now also has something easily be construed as this. When taken together with other reasoning you can find easily in my iso, it adds up to more than what I've got on Antifinity.
Wait, I'm confused. o_O Care to explain?
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Post Post #370 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 3:19 pm

Post by Andrius »

I meant, Mustilicor wrote, BTW. /fail
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Post Post #371 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 3:21 pm

Post by Mustilicor »

Sorry. Let me try again.

You and Antifinity were fairly even in scum-probability (with you ever so slightly ahead) until Antifinity's posts 17 and 18 (numbers given are iso numbers). SAMP! points out in his post 20 a contradiction that make these posts even more suspect. At that point, Antifinity pulled firmly ahead of you.

With your post 58, you said
Andrius wrote: I believe that TQO is the Doc. So, in my mind, we have a 50% chance at a Cop. I know, if you don't think he is, its a different scenario. But that's how I see it. Take it or leave it.
However, it is only a different scenario if you know the mafia set up. Thus, this is a possible scum slip just as Antifinity's posts 17 and 18 were.

Because you were slightly ahead before Antifinity's slip, your matching of his slip has put you slightly ahead again.
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Post Post #372 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 3:22 pm

Post by Andrius »

Ah. Got it. ^^; /fail
Well, it was a stupid mistake. :/
How long are we going to wait? XD
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Post Post #373 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 3:27 pm

Post by Mustilicor »

Depends on when others who might have questions (or, heaven forbid, fatal flaws in my reasoning) get in here to say so.
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Post Post #374 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 3:29 pm

Post by Andrius »

Alright, well I'll stick around until I'm officially dead.
See ya', for now.
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