Mini 517: Tree Stump Mafia: Game Over

[DrippingGoofball]

OK. Assuming that Adele is scum:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 062#814062

Her player ranking:
mith 10%
max 15%
mos 15%
aimee 20%
d3sisted 20%
silver 25%
korlash 30%
jdodge 35%
scotmany 35%

She doesn't want to draw attention to her scumbuddy

too much

so that scotmany isn't her scumbuddy. JDodge is also 35% so also probably not Adele's scumbuddy. But she has to distance herself, and the scumbuddy is probably still pretty high up in the ladder. Say, Korlash, or maybe silver. Mith at the bottom is almost certainly not her scumbuddy.

Let's check out Korlash:
FoS: d3sisted, PookyTheMagicalBear, Mastermind of Sin, and Adele
FoS: MoS...
Overall he's obsessed with Adele and MoS, also scotmany, JDodge, and Adele some more.

That settles it. Korlash is scum #3. Adele, Quag and Korlash are overdoing the Day 1 distancing bit. It backfired on Quag, and now it's going to backfire some more.

CONCLUSION
Scum = Quagmire, Adele, Korlash.

If there is a third, look at MoS, scotmany or JDodge.

vote:Adele

- I could vote Korlash too.

[mith]

I could've sworn I already posted here today. I've got a lot to do tonight, so I'm not sure if I'll get any reading done here - will definitely post tomorrow either way. Happy with my vote for now, from the skimming I've done.

[Thok]

I deleted one of the TS/DGB double posts.

Official Vote Count

d3sisted (2): (JDodge, scotmany12)
scotmany12 (2): (d3sisted, Korlash)
DrippingGoofball (1): (Aimee)
Korlash (1): (Mith)
Adele (1): (DrippingGoofball)
JDodge (0):
Aimee (0):
Mith (0):
Mastermind of Sin (0):

Not voting (2): (Mastermind of Sin, Adele)

[scotmany12]

DBG, why do you think adele is scum? Also there is only 2 scum left. Silver can also not be scum as he is innocent when he stumped.

[DrippingGoofball]

DBG, why do you think adele is scum? Also there is only 2 scum left. Silver can also not be scum as he is innocent when he stumped.

I REPEAT: "Massive Day 1 distancing with Adele, and vice-versa. I bet the farm that Adele is scum #2. Textbook case here." Adele and Quagmire were distancing big time. Especially when you combine the baselessness of Quagmire's "case," and its relentless aggressivity. Adele and Quagmire are buddies. 95% sure, Bayesian calculator in hand (hey, my husband teaches Bayesian statistics to PhD students, so there, I should know, osmotic transfer of knowledge and all).

Now, scotmany, how do you KNOW there is only 3 scum? Where can I find Thok's statement about this, say, one that states that there is no SK, only one mafia, and that mafia has only 3 players? Thanks ahead.

[scotmany12]

3 people will receive the Mafia PM

You are a Lumberjack! Leaping from tree to tree! You are Mafia with X and Y, whom you may talk with each night.

Each night you may target a tree (but not a tree stump), and kill them. Trees killed this way will no longer be able to post in thread.

If you choose, you may commit suicide at any time during the day by posting "I didn't want this role. I wanted to be a Lumberjack! Leaping from tree to tree!". Doing this will kill you, reveal your role in thread, reset the vote counts and keep day going. However, you will still be able to keep posting in the thread after saying this phrase (but not if lynched or nightkilled).

You win when there are at least as many Lumberjacks as Trees alive. Tree stumps do not count as Trees or Lumberjacks for purpose of this win condition.

Please confirm in the thread.

[d3sisted]

What a goofball.

[DrippingGoofball]

What a goofball.

That's undeniable.

Doesn't change my conclusion. Adele scum with the highest probability. Very likely third scum Korlash, less likely MoS, scotmany or JDodge.

[Korlash]

@DGB: Hey... Your so called theory works with MoS more then it does me... I was almost pro-quag half of day one... Or at least against his lynch... That is definitly not distancing.. now if you wana say I was trying to save a scum partner I would agree you may have a case... But other then what you could call a bus at the end of day one, I see no distancing between me and quag...

@ Adele: I really do not believe that you and MoS are the partners but it seems like the best strategy for the scum to do in this "pro-town" game... I mean you two are the two most likely we never really go after and thus you would make the perfect scum.. just hiding waiting for a couple to stump... Like I said I don't feel the need to push it at all... More confident in my JD and Scot pair...

[Mastermind of Sin]

I was fine letting DGB's "theory" slide as a possibility until I saw this gem.

DBG, why do you think adele is scum? Also there is only 2 scum left. Silver can also not be scum as he is innocent when he stumped.

I REPEAT: "Massive Day 1 distancing with Adele, and vice-versa. I bet the farm that Adele is scum #2. Textbook case here." Adele and Quagmire were distancing big time. Especially when you combine the baselessness of Quagmire's "case," and its relentless aggressivity. Adele and Quagmire are buddies. 95% sure, Bayesian calculator in hand (hey, my husband teaches Bayesian statistics to PhD students, so there, I should know, osmotic transfer of knowledge and all).

First off, I want to check what you meant by "Quagmire's 'case'". If you mean the fact that he was trying to get Adele lynched, I think half the people in this game can confirm that he was telling everyone in scumchat he would lynch Adele and then MoS before role pms were even sent out. So of course his "case" against Adele was completely baseless. If you were referring to the case

against

Quagmire, then we have other problems, since it was far from baseless.

So while I agree that there could have been distancing on Adele's part, I don't believe you can call Quagmire's actions "distancing". And Korlash is right that your "theory" applies to me more than it does to him. I was Quagmire's second random wagon target after Adele, and I also saw through his bullshit. So why is Korlash a better target than me?

@ Adele: I really do not believe that you and MoS are the partners but it seems like the best strategy for the scum to do in this "pro-town" game... I mean you two are the two most likely we never really go after and thus you would make the perfect scum.. just hiding waiting for a couple to stump... Like I said I don't feel the need to push it at all... More confident in my JD and Scot pair...

I really have no clue what you are saying here. First off, why would you never go after myself or Adele? Secondly, why does that reason only apply to the two of us and no one else? Thirdly, why do you think we are scumpartners and say that you would never go after us?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Also, V/LA for a week.

[Adele]

I was fine letting DGB's "theory" slide as a possibility until I saw this gem.

DBG, why do you think adele is scum? Also there is only 2 scum left. Silver can also not be scum as he is innocent when he stumped.

I REPEAT: "Massive Day 1 distancing with Adele, and vice-versa. I bet the farm that Adele is scum #2. Textbook case here." Adele and Quagmire were distancing big time. Especially when you combine the baselessness of Quagmire's "case," and its relentless aggressivity. Adele and Quagmire are buddies. 95% sure, Bayesian calculator in hand (hey, my husband teaches Bayesian statistics to PhD students, so there, I should know, osmotic transfer of knowledge and all).

First off, I want to check what you meant by "Quagmire's 'case'". If you mean the fact that he was trying to get Adele lynched, I think half the people in this game can confirm that he was telling everyone in scumchat he would lynch Adele and then MoS before role pms were even sent out. So of course his "case" against Adele was completely baseless. If you were referring to the case

against

Quagmire, then we have other problems, since it was far from baseless.

heh. That'd be my response. I can't speak for Quagmire, but he was quite rude to me outside of the game shortly before we got the roles, and seemed to carry that animosity in (will provide linky soon). I didn't know about the "let's kill Adele" conversation predating role send-out, though; thanks for the heads-up, mos.

As for myself, I'm feeling... smug. I called it, I pushed it. I didn't want to quicklynch him, but I regard myself as an integral part of his wagon (especially pre-mith). You seem to have just turned on the person who got on least well with the confirmed scum as "obvscum", and that doesn't seem a reliable method to me.

Just to clarify:

Is

this random/stirring/D1-style hijinks? I can't really tell with you.

[DrippingGoofball]

...I think half the people in this game can confirm that he was telling everyone in scumchat he would lynch Adele and then MoS before role pms were even sent out. So of course his "case" against Adele was completely baseless.

Please. I don't scumchat, and I don't discuss the game outside of the thread. I don't want to know whether other people do. Because that's information that I cannot personally verify. Now, did he start up with Adele before or after receiving his role PM? I highly doubt that Thok would open the thread for /confirms unless roles were already sent out. My point is not invalidated. Quag was still distancing, unless you can provide me with proof that he was not, I will continue to think he was distancing from his scumbuddy Adele.

...So while I agree that there could have been distancing on Adele's part, I don't believe you can call Quagmire's actions "distancing". And Korlash is right that your "theory" applies to me more than it does to him. I was Quagmire's second random wagon target after Adele, and I also saw through his bullshit. So why is Korlash a better target than me?

Because Adele put you low-ish on her suspicion list, and Korlash was high, but not the highest. That is why. Adele is distancing herself from Korlash a great deal more, and she put a number on it so that there cannot be an argument. Thank you Adele!

[DrippingGoofball]

As for myself, I'm feeling... smug. I called it, I pushed it.

I didn't want to quicklynch him

, but I regard myself as an integral part of his wagon (especially pre-mith). You seem to have just turned on the person who got on least well with the confirmed scum as "obvscum", and that doesn't seem a reliable method to me.

Bold mine. Over-distancing blowback is what it is. And look! You didn't want to

quicklynch him

. And why not? If you're town, you'd want his head on a platter, pronto.

[Korlash]

Huh... DGb sure likes this distancing thing...

As for MoS's questions... No, yes, and no... I wish it was that easy =D

I would never go after you because what Quag did more or less makes you seem innocent... And until you do something really scummy... That more or less means I probably won't find anything at all wrong with you.

Secondly, Quag never mentioned anyone else.. just you two...

Thirdly, I only think you have a chance to be partners if Scot, JD, and D3sisted all turn out tow... So because I "know" I am right I do not think you guys are scum thus.. never go after you...

I just felt seeing as how I was going back through the entire game I woudl throw every possible theory I had any real evidence for at all out there...

[Adele]

As for myself, I'm feeling... smug. I called it, I pushed it.

I didn't want to quicklynch him

, but I regard myself as an integral part of his wagon (especially pre-mith). You seem to have just turned on the person who got on least well with the confirmed scum as "obvscum", and that doesn't seem a reliable method to me.

Bold mine. Over-distancing blowback is what it is. And look! You didn't want to

quicklynch him

. And why not? If you're town, you'd want his head on a platter, pronto.

Because I didn't

know

that he was scum, and I wanted to give him every chance to redeem himself and start playing constructively.

Adele put you low-ish on her suspicion list, and Korlash was high, but not the highest. That is why. Adele is distancing herself from Korlash a great deal more, and she put a number on it so that there cannot be an argument. Thank you Adele!

I'm not sure I like this. I certainly did put numbers on my list - and mith, you'll note those numbers add up to 200 - because, why not?

My questions for you, then, are:
1) why not max (which is to say,

you

, or aimee, or someone else listed between mos and Kor on my list?
2) do you in any way disagree with my list? The list itself is an analysis of how townily people acted yesterday according to the criteria I judge by - criteria which I think I made very clear. Does anyone's postion in my list seem

oddly

high or low to you?

It seems like it'd be very easy for someone new to a game to accuse one person of obvscum because of some level of wifom (X defended scum, Y fence-sat on the scumwagon, Z distanced from scum), then take that person's list and apply a new level of it to justify targets that you've chosen (for example if you'd wanted mith out, saying "mith obvscum because Adele has made the same mistake again, not being subtle; she's defending him 100% in the hope that once we know she's scum we'll assume he's not because scum would never be that blatant"). Actually, given some of max's behaviour, it's slightly worrying.

Do you have any points or arguments besides this, or are you going to judge the game entirely upon me from here on in?

Also (btw), you didn't answer my earlier question: are you being serious, or goofing around? Because I don't know if you want a serious answer or not, and so I'm assuming you do.

[mith]

Quick thoughts, I'm not feeling well and I think if I look at this game for too long my head may explode. Hopefully will get back to regular posting tomorrow.

Korlash's 288 still bothers me. Right now, it feels like he is overstating his confidence that scotmany12 and JDodge are scum (but giving them such a high percentage) - going with the "obvious" suspects given the lynch and stump we've had so far - while at the same time throwing in four more suspects (over half the other non-Korlash players) to give himself other options. I'm not buying that he listed four people if he really believes there is a combined 1% chance of them being scum (not to mention that he is effectively saying he is 100% certain the other three players are innocent).

I was half expecting him to say he was exaggerating - but then in 297 he actually defends it.

289, highlights: Says it's "very unlikely he would do that" regarding Quag "talking to his buddies" - not only is this not a very solid case, it pretty much contradicts his 100% right off the bat.

The whole "neutral = not town" thing is a bit silly. And maybe I'm missing something, but wasn't Korlash

against

lynching Quagmire for most of D1? Where is this "They are not pro town and thus a very good lynch candidate" stuff coming from?

Ok, I'm going to have to stop there for now. Korlash makes my head hurt.

[DrippingGoofball]

To answer your question, I am always serious, sinister even. Lugubrious is my middle name. Do not be fooled by the happy avatar.

1) why not max (which is to say,

you

, or aimee, or someone else listed between mos and Kor on my list?

I am not only looking at your ratings, but who you actually tried to attack. Quagmire, and Korlash, mainly. Day 1 (or early in the game) is the most revealing day, because there usually are no valid reason to attack anyone. So anyone going at each other like crazy on day 1 is scum distancing from each other. Quagmire, Korlash and yourself most tightly fit the costume.

2) do you in any way disagree with my list? The list itself is an analysis of how townily people acted yesterday according to the criteria I judge by - criteria which I think I made very clear. Does anyone's postion in my list seem

oddly

high or low to you?

The whole premise behind your list is rubbish, so I am only interested in it as to what it reveals about YOU and YOUR alliances. Even if you wrote it from a townie point of view (but I consider you a high scum risk), you can twist the criteria to fit whatever order you want to come up with. Just to show you how rubbish your list is, look at your paragraphs analyzing each player. You are critical of every player. No one can tell from these paragraphs, with any certainty, who you find scummiest. There is no appearance that the paragraphs and the numbers you give match each other even loosely.

It seems like it'd be very easy for someone new to a game to accuse one person of obvscum because of some level of wifom[...] worrying.

WIFOM, schWIFOM. People at each other's throat on Day 1? I've been scum enough to see that happen all the time. That's scum in my Bayesian calculator. Not WIFOM at all. They always make the same dumb mistake, and your team has been guilty of it big time. You probably thought that this much distancing would carry you, credibility-wise, to end game. Wrong! You just served yourselves on a silver platter.

[Korlash]

Ok, I'm going to have to stop there for now. Korlash makes my head hurt.

Woot! Crap Logic Korlash strikes again!

>.>
<.<

Evil doers beware for I am on the loose... To annoy you silly!!!!!

Ok seriously... Where was I? And why am I wearing spandex?

I know it seems odd, But I really do not fully agree with your "200% max" thing. I mean I tried to fit my thing into yours just so we can try to understand each other but it really doesn't... I mean take DGB's list at the top of the page.. That adds up to 205% if I am not mistaken... I think I counted it right... So not everyone has the same way of listing people as you do Mith.

I rank people I am confident in (being scum) as a high 75-90% depending on how confident. People I will never unvote for because I see NO PROTOWN ACTIONS at all I rank from 95-100% and anyone I do not feel is scummy that much I rank below 60%. I never outright rank someone as town, unless I either have first hand knowledge or a better then educated guess that they are in fact town. (I.e. Some kind of evidence, such as role claim that is not counter claimed or unproven)

If I had to rank the others they would fall below 60%, you would be like... 65% only because of Blapa... D3sisted maybe... 65% also... and the Mith/Adele pair gets a 'maybe 80%" until Both Scot and JD are proven.

Or that's my take on it. If you don't agree thats cool, I like how I rank my scumdar and I don't feel like changing it for anyone... even you...

And dang DGB... What have I done that makes me such a likely candidate as scum? (Other then being annoying muahahahahaha)

[scotmany12]

Khorlash stop avoiding subjects. Both me and mith have questioned you for saying that "neutral=not town." Were you not against the lynch of quag? How come when you decide to attack me your opinion changes drastically? This is the third time someone has addressed this so please respond to it this time.

[Korlash]

I only herd it from him... Sorry if I didn't answer it before... never saw it... wait wait found it.. post 305...

Ok in my opinion anyone "neutral" is not town... literally. I was against a Quag lynch because it was more or less a consensus on PAGE 3! That was my main reason, my second reason was that the mere "not looking at your PM" does not automatically make you scum. In fact it neither makes you more town nor more scum and thus not a good reason to lynch.

However, playing the game as a neutral is not the same as playing it Pro-town.

I did not lynch Quag for being neutral, I lynched him because he was an ass and the rest of you were pretty much not going to move on... So all in all he was a hindrance to the game... I'm not saying I was right. I'm not saying my hammer was even a good move. I already illustrated my views on the subject the first post (Third actually) of the day. We got lucky, not arguing that.

Does that more or less answer your question? I will be glad to further explain it if you give me some more specifics.

Also, just so I do not further my biasness against you, would you mind pointing out the "second" time it was mentioned... I mean I only saw it twice now.. and you say three times... I would like to know where this other one is. Thanks Schot!

[Korlash]

Ok I wasn't going to but this has been bothering me for a while now... Can you explain this please DGB:

Let's check out Korlash:
FoS: d3sisted, PookyTheMagicalBear, Mastermind of Sin, and Adele
FoS: MoS...
Overall he's obsessed with Adele and MoS, also scotmany, JDodge, and Adele some more.

That settles it. Korlash is scum #3. Adele, Quag and Korlash are overdoing the Day 1 distancing bit. It backfired on Quag, and now it's going to backfire some more.

How does a mere 5 FoS's make me the third scum? Where did I distance day 1? And for the love of god I am not obsessed with Adele and MoS... I am obsessed with the deaths of JD and Schot, yes, but am in no way obsessed with Adele and MoS. I find your entire case to be more or less BS... can you enlighten me as to your exact thinking here? Examples maybe...

[JDodge]

Tell me then, Korlash...

WHY THE FUCK

ARE YOU GOING AFTER ME AND SCOT

FOR THINKING THE EXACT SAME YOU WERE THINKING?

[Korlash]

I am going after you for a completely different set of reasons.... I think... Damn now I am beginning to doubt my case... Darn you slick mafia plays! Time to list out my reasons me thinks...

Because you asked I will see my main points on you here JD:

1) The reference Quag made in his Firstish post where he more or less calls you two by name. That along with the fact you keep insisting the "Adele" thing was PREDETERMINED! And the only talk before the game was between mafia partners. That is more or less end of story there. Plain and simple, cut and dry, in my mind you two claimed mafia.

2) You never really seemed to give reasons when you originally vote people. You just say "Hi scum" and Vote then explain it later. Not a tell tale sign of being scum but I won't ignore it either.

3) You have been playing "Unseriously" half the game. Or that is what I got from the chat you and Silver had. If that is the case you more or less have been acting "quag" all game, and Quag = scum so... Yeah again not meaning a lot but it all adds up to a character profile...

4) You said, and I quote: "If a scum is playing town he must never be lynched."

...

That is saying you want scum to win... and thus you are either scum or anti-town. Again, cut and dry, plain and simple, I want you dead based on this, reasoning. that makes 2 pieces of scum evidence, and two of minor maybe evidence. Lets see if I have anymore...

5) you still have not explained this: "Everyone, please read the bolded part very carefully. Can you see what I see?" Even after asking you. So I ask you again, please explain it.

6) You keep using the word "Opportunism" as an attack... I have already outlined My thoughts on that matter.

7) You and Scot (The other player I most suspect) seem to be all buddy buddy the entire game. Seems odd because I myself see so many things to comment/attack you two on that neither of you attack the other at all.

8) Post 174: You try to defend Quag on the basis "HE does not want to stump" = not scum... Tat is not what I felt at all. I do feel not stumping = scum... and so I attack you for thinking otherwise.

9) You don't even prove your votes/cases when asked to do so in most cases...

10) In one case in particular you refuse to give your reasons... and have yet too...

So there you have it.. 10 valid (In my mind) points against you, none of which are what I was thinking...

Some of those points, on their own, I would not consider even vote worthy... but together.. they clearly spell out something wrong with you.

[Mastermind of Sin]

So Korlash, because I knew about Quag's predetermined attack that was decided before the game started but did *not* join the Adele wagon, I must not be connected with it, right?

Look, this goes for both you and DGB. Quag should have been modkilled for what he did. He came into a game having decided outside of the game that he and others would bandwagon Adele and myself afterwards. But he wasn't. It's a shame, but maybe the mod felt that it was ok since it was just Day 1, and modkills *do* tend to screw up games. Regardless, just because something was decided on outside the thread does not mean it has any relevance to the thread itself. If DGB refuses to believe that Quag decided the Adele wagon outside the game, why is she not going after JDodge and scotmany? They already knew about the wagon and were ready to go, so clearly Korlash's theory should hold up in DGB's eyes. Yet she is only focusing on Adele and Korlash. Seems odd to me. Her logic is extremely flawed, because scum do NOT always try to distance. Heck, I have been known on several occasions to tell my scumbuddies to avoid major distancing on Day 1. I can't be the only person who does this, so to assume that every scumgroup is going to go balls-to-the-walls distancing on Day 1 is just ludicrous. The theory that they may have been distancing was decent, but DGB is taking this far into extremities. The case just doesn't hold up, from what I see.