Mini 436 - Game over - Mafia wins with no casualties!

[ryan]

Ok StallingChamp, I aplogize for misreading your comments, who do you think us townies should lynch today?

Mod edit
Votecount:
Albert B. Rampage 2 (Paradoxombie, ryan)
Paradoxombie 2 (vollkan, StallingChamp)
Poison Ivy 1 (Miztef)
StallingChamp 1 (Poison Ivy)
ryan 1 (Albert B. Rampage)
Hurrikaty 1 (DeathSauce)

Not voting 4: DogMom, Tophat, VanDamien, Hurrikaty

With 12 alive it takes 7 votes to lynch.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Alright this is the situation so far, from my interpretation of the game.

Lynch Albert Today Camp:

Paradoxombie
ryan
VanDamien

Don't Lynch Albert Today Crew:

Miztef
DeathSauce
DogMom
Vollkan
StallingChamp

Those who haven't spoken yet:

Tophat
Hurrikaty
Poison Ivy

[Albert B. Rampage]

I must say I'm quite satisfied of the turn of events, although if Poison Ivy, Hurri and Tophat turn to the Lynch Albert Today Camp, we will be tied 6-6.

Tophat mentioned something about not lynching me today, but has disappeared since.
Hurri has not contributed to the game in any way yet, much like Poison Ivy.

[ryan]

Of course you'd be happy with the turn of events as the suspicion on you has somehow died down.

[ryan]

And with 4 still not voting, we dont seem to be any closer to much of anything at this point

[Albert B. Rampage]

Appeal to emotion, BOO-HOO ryan.

[ryan]

Appeal to emotion, BOO-HOO ryan.

Boo Hoo??? A typical ABR response I guess

[VanDamien]

I must say I'm quite satisfied of the turn of events, although if Poison Ivy, Hurri and Tophat turn to the Lynch Albert Today Camp, we will be tied 6-6.

Tophat mentioned something about not lynching me today, but has disappeared since.
Hurri has not contributed to the game in any way yet, much like Poison Ivy.

You're satisfied some people have chosen to follow your lies along with your scumbuddies? Holy crap, thanks for admitting it.

As for scum pushing the wagon, I know I'm vanilla and will be confirmed as such if ABR is actually not lying, and I feel pretty good about para for the same reason. It just wouldn't make sense for any scum to sacrfice themselves on Day one to get one townie. Ryan I can't say either way at this point.

What I find more likely is that there is scum on the hold off on Albert wagon. This is why: either 1)they know he's with them and saw the wind of change and opportunity to keep him alive, or 2)They know he's telling the truth, and are counting on the town to want to lynch him Day 2, effectivly giving them two free kills.

The way I see it, either we get scum with ABR, or the reactions following his claim give a pretty good indication of who to go after next, and either way, ABR needs to be lynched, today. Nobody else's lynch will give us as much information to go on day 2.

[ryan]

Ok VanDamien, while I don't disagree with your post I do wonder why you'd post some observations while you still don't have a vote out there. Waiting for your scum buddies to make their vote known before you go that direction? If you are vanilla as you claim, who has acted the most like scum?

[VanDamien]

Ok VanDamien, while I don't disagree with your post I do wonder why you'd post some observations while you still don't have a vote out there. Waiting for your scum buddies to make their vote known before you go that direction? If you are vanilla as you claim, who has acted the most like scum?

I can't hammer if my votes already on him, which it was for a long time, and will be again to finish things off, I thought I had been fairly clear about that.

And Albert has acted the scummiest, of course.

[ryan]

Actually as of last vote count you had a "no vote" Post 325

[Paradoxombie]

yeah he took his vote off because he was gonna be the one to hammer ABR

Much like myself, I guess, he expected people to be more willing to lynch ABR

[StallingChamp]

As for scum pushing the wagon, I know I'm vanilla and will be confirmed as such if ABR is actually not lying, and I feel pretty good about para for the same reason. It just wouldn't make sense for any scum to sacrfice themselves on Day one to get one townie. Ryan I can't say either way at this point.

WIFOM.

[DogMom]

Biggest item in favor of VanDamien, right now, is that he's holding off on ABR with the deliberate, stated intent of being the one to hammer, and therefore

die

with ABR, should ABR actually be telling the truth. That's pretty gutsy, IMO.

Of course, it all could be an elaborate setup, VanDamien distancing himself from his scumbuddy ABR in an heroic attempt to look very town.
I think the biggest problem here is the niggling thought of "what if ABR is telling the truth? What if? We could go from "full complement of townies" to LYLO in a single lynch!"
But...well...
You have to admit, it's an

odd

role. The Wiki says it's rare. However, it pretty much is a "normal-game" role; it's not a Theme game role, and it's not an "unusual Mafia" role, such as "backward" or "nightless" or whatever. So I can see it showing up here, in the "normal Mini" games.

Thing is, if we lynch him, we absolutely

must

do it when we have at least 6 more townies than we do scum. Otherwise, town loses IF he's telling the truth AND the lynch vote is a townie and ABR chooses a townie for his NK.

Therefore, we have to either lynch him TODAY, or be absolutely

positive

that whoever we lynch is scum if we select a different target.
Our choices currently sit at:

• *Lynch ABR today
  *lynch CONFIRMED scum today, and ABR tomorrow
  *lynch CONFIRMED scum today & tomorrow, and ABR Day 3
  *Don't lynch ABR at all.

Of course, all bets are off if we have a cop, who investigates ABR and finds ABR to be scum, and then declares tomorrow. But then we'd all have to believe the cop.

I've got suspicions of ryan right now, based on some things I've seen. I'll be back later to check out what I think I saw and post it all.

For now:

FoS: ABR & ryan

[Albert B. Rampage]

If I were scum, I wouldn't have any powers, because I would never claim.

So if I'm lying scum, your safe to lynch me day2 without consequences.

If I am what I say I am, then lynching Ryan or Parax would be the safest choice.

[vollkan]

Thing is, if we lynch him, we absolutely must do it when we have at least 6 more townies than we do scum. Otherwise, town loses IF he's telling the truth AND the lynch vote is a townie and ABR chooses a townie for his NK.

Well. Assuming the balance is 9:3 and ABR is telling the truth (for the purposes of argument):

If we lynch ABR AND the hammerer is town AND ABR NKs a town, and then the scum NK a town. Day 2 starts at 5:3. Loss.

If we don't lynch ABR and we lynch a scum and then scum NK a town. We start Day 2 at 8:2. If we lynch ABR AND the hammerer is town AND ABR NKs a town, and then the scum NK a town. Day 2 starts at 4:2. LYLO.

If we don't lynch ABR and we lynch a town, and then scum NK a town. We start Day 2 at 7:3. A lynch of any town player plus scum NKing a town will cause 5:3. Loss.

The second option is the worst case scenario if we lynch a scum today. It is lylo, not loss (as opposed to worse case today).

[VanDamien]

Thing is, if we lynch him, we absolutely must do it when we have at least 6 more townies than we do scum. Otherwise, town loses IF he's telling the truth AND the lynch vote is a townie and ABR chooses a townie for his NK.

Well. Assuming the balance is 9:3 and ABR is telling the truth (for the purposes of argument):

If we lynch ABR AND the hammerer is town AND ABR NKs a town, and then the scum NK a town. Day 2 starts at 5:3. Loss.

If we don't lynch ABR and we lynch a scum and then scum NK a town. We start Day 2 at 8:2. If we lynch ABR AND the hammerer is town AND ABR NKs a town, and then the scum NK a town. Day 2 starts at 4:2. LYLO.

If we don't lynch ABR and we lynch a town, and then scum NK a town. We start Day 2 at 7:3. A lynch of any town player plus scum NKing a town will cause 5:3. Loss.

The second option is the worst case scenario if we lynch a scum today. It is lylo, not loss (as opposed to worse case today).

As DogMom and I have both stated before, 5:3 is LYLO, not a loss. We, well you guys, because I'd be dead in this worst case, just have to lynch correctly 3 tims in a row.

[Albert B. Rampage]

We, well you guys, because I'd be dead in this worst case, just have to lynch correctly 3 tims in a row.

I think the "just" here is misplaced. Correctly lynching mafia 3 times in a row is a daunting endeavor, for any given group of town.

[ryan]

Thing is, if we lynch him, we absolutely must do it when we have at least 6 more townies than we do scum. Otherwise, town loses IF he's telling the truth AND the lynch vote is a townie and ABR chooses a townie for his NK.

Well. Assuming the balance is 9:3 and ABR is telling the truth (for the purposes of argument):

If we lynch ABR AND the hammerer is town AND ABR NKs a town, and then the scum NK a town. Day 2 starts at 5:3. Loss.

If we don't lynch ABR and we lynch a scum and then scum NK a town. We start Day 2 at 8:2. If we lynch ABR AND the hammerer is town AND ABR NKs a town, and then the scum NK a town. Day 2 starts at 4:2. LYLO.

If we don't lynch ABR and we lynch a town, and then scum NK a town. We start Day 2 at 7:3. A lynch of any town player plus scum NKing a town will cause 5:3. Loss.

The second option is the worst case scenario if we lynch a scum today. It is lylo, not loss (as opposed to worse case today).

Well with that argument it doesn't sound like you are ready for an ABR lynch, than who is it that gets killed than? Who goes down if you are willing to let ABR live for another day?

[DogMom]

Thing is, if we lynch him, we absolutely must do it when we have at least 6 more townies than we do scum. Otherwise, town loses IF he's telling the truth AND the lynch vote is a townie and ABR chooses a townie for his NK.

Well. Assuming the balance is 9:3 and ABR is telling the truth (for the purposes of argument):

If we lynch ABR AND the hammerer is town AND ABR NKs a town, and then the scum NK a town. Day 2 starts at 5:3. Loss.

If we don't lynch ABR and we lynch a scum and then scum NK a town. We start Day 2 at 8:2. If we lynch ABR AND the hammerer is town AND ABR NKs a town, and then the scum NK a town. Day 2 starts at 4:2. LYLO.

If we don't lynch ABR and we lynch a town, and then scum NK a town. We start Day 2 at 7:3. A lynch of any town player plus scum NKing a town will cause 5:3. Loss.

The second option is the worst case scenario if we lynch a scum today. It is lylo, not loss (as opposed to worse case today).

You're completely backward in your first and last scenarios.

1) Day 2 starting at 5:3 is LYLO, not loss.
2) This one's correct; 4:2 is LYLO.
3) Again, 5:3 is LYLO.
So, all 3 of your scenarios are actually ending in LYLO.
As I said, if we're determined to lynch ABR, the ONLY way we can do it is either do it today or make

sure

we lynch scum today and then we can lynch him tomorrow.

If we do not lynch him today, and we mislynch today, we cannot lynch him at all until Day 4, even if we lynch scum on Day 2 and Day 3.

Reasoning:
Mislynch today; end D1 at 8:3
Mafia NK, start D2 at 7:3
We don't have our 6-townie cushion there, so we cannot lynch him on D2.
IF we lynch scum on D2, the day ends at 7:2
Mafia NK, start D3 at 6:2
-Still don't have the 6-town cushion
IF we lynch scum on D3, the day ends at 7:1
Mafia NK, start D4 at 6:1

If we lynch ABR on D4,

and he's town

, that ends the day with
ABR lynch: 5:1
ABR Hammerkill: 4:1
ABR Nightkill: 3:1
Mafia NK, Day 5 starts 2:1

Dang. I'm gonna have to make a spreadsheet to keep all this straight!
Major Postiness with as many options as I can freaking well come up with to follow.
Hope y'all have a LOT of coffee available, you're gonna need it.

[DogMom]

OK. Here's the post. Trying to keep all this straight.

Again, assumptions are all worst-case:
ALBERT IS TELLING THE TRUTH
THE HAMMER VOTE WILL BE TOWN
ALBERT WILL NIGHTKILL TOWN

Those hold for the next howevermany posts I need to run the numbers.

Day 1 Scumlynch scenarios:
*********************************

Lynch scum D1, Lynch ABR D2

D1: Lynch scum. Town: Scum ratio is 9:2
N1: Nightkill: 8:2
D2: Lynch ABR. 7:2
Hammervote: 6:2
N2: Albert's NK: 5:2
Mafia's NK: 4:2

Day 3 starts in LYLO, at 4:2

**************************************

Lynch scum D1, D2. Lynch ABR D3

D1: lynch scum. 9:2
N1: NK: 8:2
D2: Lynch scum. 8:1
N2: NK: 7:1
D3: Lynch ABR. 6:1
Hammervote. 5:1
N3: Albert's NK: 4:1
Mafia NK: 3:1

Day 4 starts at 3:1

************************************

Lynch scum D1, mislynch D2, lynch ABR D3

D1: Lynch scum. 9:2
N1: NK. 8:2
D2: Mislynch. 7:2
N2: NK: 6:2
D3: Lynch ABR. 5:2
Hammervote. 4:2
N3: Albert's NK. 3:2
Mafia NK. 2:2

Town loses, N3

*******************************************

Mislynch D1, Scumlynch D2, lynch ABR D3

D1: Mislynch. 8:3
N1: NK. 7:3
D2: Scumlynch. 7:2
N2: NK. 6:2
D3: Lynch ABR. 5:2
Hammervote. 4:2
N3: Albert's NK. 3:2
Mafia NK. 2:2

Town loses, N3.

*************************************************

2 Scumlynches and a Mislynch, D1-3, lynch ABR D4

(for the sake of argument, I'm putting the mislynch on D3, but it could occur in any of the 3 days, so long as Day 4 starts with 1 scum and 5 town.)
D1: scumlynch. 9:2
N1: NK. 8:2
D2: scumlynch. 8:1
N2: NK. 7:1
D3: mislynch. 6:1
N3: NK. 5:1
D4: ABR lynch. 4:1
Hammervote. 3:1
N4: ABR NK. 2:1
Mafia NK. 1:1

Town loses, N4.

Summary next post.

[DogMom]

Summary:
Our options for a town win, assuming Albert is telling the truth, that the scum aren't going to be the hammer vote, and that Albert has really really bad aim are:

• Lynch Albert TODAY, town at 5:3 (LYLO) D2
  Lynch scum today & Albert tomorrow. Town at 4:2 (LYLO) D3
  Lynch scum today & tomorrow, Albert on Day 3. Town at 3:1 Day 4
  Don't lynch Albert until we are absolutely, positively, pinky-swear, kiss-your-elbow POSITIVE he is a lying scummy scum and that nothing bad will happen if we lynch him.
  
  Face it, if Albert's not lying, AND scum won't hammer him (sacrificing 1/3 of their rank for...um...what, exactly?) and he misread an honest townie as trying to do what's best for the town by lynching the scummyscum that is Albert, then that, folks, is our one-and-ONLY mislynch of the game.
  No more mislynches allowed.
  We lynch him and he's not scum and has bad aim, we absolutely
  must
  lynch scum with EVERY SINGLE OTHER VOTE.
  
  So...do you feel lucky? Are you THAT good a scumhunter? Do you feel confident enough that he's scum to risk putting town in LYLO for the rest of the game?
  
  (Scenario posted previously started D2 in LYLO, at 5:3.
  D2: Lynch scum. 5:2
  N2: NK. 4:2 (LYLO again)
  D3: Lynch scum. 4:1
  N3: NK. 3:1
  Even though it's not the "typical" LYLO ratio, we still absolutely must lynch scum on D4. Here's why:
  
  D4: Mislynch. 2:1
  N4: NK. 1:1
  
  
  Town loses, N4
  )
  
  We have no room for error. None.

[DogMom]

Boogers. Everybody, pretend I didn't hose up the coding in that previous post and that I closed the "list" comman so that I have a pretty list up there, mkay?

It should look like this:

• Lynch Albert TODAY, town at 5:3 (LYLO) D2
  Lynch scum today & Albert tomorrow. Town at 4:2 (LYLO) D3
  Lynch scum today & tomorrow, Albert on Day 3. Town at 3:1 Day 4
  Don't lynch Albert until we are absolutely, positively, pinky-swear, kiss-your-elbow POSITIVE he is a lying scummy scum and that nothing bad will happen if we lynch him.

[Albert B. Rampage]

AHHHHHH you've taken it to another level! the Wall O' Posts ?!?

[HurriKaty]

I must say I'm quite satisfied of the turn of events.

If I were you, I wouldnt be satisfied yet.

From what I've gathered, 3 people still want you dead, and from what I remember, thats not a good thing when you're playing mafia.

*obvious statement*