Mini 1231: 8p Swift (Game Over)

[Yosarian2]

Huh? No, I don't think you're scum. If you were scum, you probably wouldn't have bussed in 6 player MYLO like that; there would be no reason for you to do so.

Ironhead is fairly obviously scum here, he spent the whole day yesterday trying to protect Beck from being lynched and defending him. Take a look at his posts just on this page alone; he really pulled out all the stops, up to and including calling me an "idiot" for voting Beck. (Yeah, that was the hammer, but it sounded like he didn't realize it at the time; considering I didn't either, that's not surprising.)

And, as predicted, he left you alive in the hopes that you'd vote me like you promised to do yesterday. Obvious scum move is obvious.

A no-lynch is tempting, but only if we could actually get the scum to kill tonight. We probably can't, unless we can credibly threatening to draw tommorow if the scum dosn't kill. So, let's just win the game today.

Vote:Ironhead

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

#312 is clearly post-game analysis, so he must've realized it was the hammer.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) He may have by post 312. So look at his posting for the rest of the day.

[Ironhead]

Yosarian, I have a tough time believing that you're as dense as you appear to be.

I was wrong in my appraisal of Beck, but I was correct in my appraisal of the odds and the best course of action for town (no-lynch, etc). Lynching Beck was still an incredibly dumb risk.

Of the four remaining players, we now know that there is exactly one scum left. Either that last scum is me (who, as Yosarian points out, strenuously argued against a Beck lynch and in favor of a no-lynch) or it is someone who bused Beck. At what point would scum bus their partner? CES and Korts hopped on the wagon before it was the popular thing to do, effectively short-circuiting the no-lynch wagon -- this is plausible as scum would not want to no-lynch to a draw. Yosarian, in contrast, acted as hammer, ensuring that he was a part of the lynch and not stuck on the no-lynch wagon if Beck somehow got lynched anyway.

We are once again at MYLO, so this question is largely academic. My vote goes toward the smart money, ie, choosing no-lynch and giving the scum an additional NK to pare down the list of suspects. Scum could once again not choose to NK, but it would once again be a stupid choice as we could then no-lynch for the draw.

VOTE: NO-LYNCH

[Korts]

No lynching is actually sensible this time. We can discuss Beck's possible connections and the NK analyses once the scum has chosen their kill. I think tonight's kill will be much more informative than the SK lynch; at this point it could go all of three ways, as all possible pairings between the three of you have had conflicts, but once the scum decides who they'd rather pair off with, I'll be much more comfortable making a judgment here.

[Korts]

VOTE: No Lynch

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Worth a try.

Vote: no-lynch

[Battousai]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 3

No Lynch -3- Ironhead, Korts, Cogito Ergo Sum

Players not voting:

Yosarian2

It is now night. Night will last for: (expired on 2011-09-15 14:56:00)

[Battousai]

Yosarian2 -vanilla townie- have been killed N4

Deadline for D5 is in: (expired on 2011-09-21 19:42:00)

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch!

[Ironhead]

Yosarian2 -vanilla goon- have been killed N4

Eh, come again? Yosarian was a vanilla

goon

?

[Battousai]

Edited for clarity...

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I so did not see that coming.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I actually reconsidered Korts here for a second, but he could just kill me setting up an Ironheadlynch without arousing suspicion.

Vote: Ironhead

[Korts]

VOTE: Ironhead

Woop woop?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Town wins?

[Korts]

Sorry, I'm afraid not.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If the set-up is just 1 one-shot vig vs. 2 scum, then I'm going to yell at people.

[Korts]

I'm assuming Ironhead was some kind of power role whose purpose would've been void if he'd claimed.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You still should have shot me.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

P.S. It would be pretty sweet if Ironhead turned out to be a Vengeful.

[Korts]

Vengeful and vig together would unbalance the setup in favor of the town.

You still should have shot me.

Eh, no. Pitting Ironhead against Yos would've been far too obvious. Ironheadscum at this point was clearly going to have to deal with the immediate threat of the more vocal opposition, and you weren't as actively against him as Yos was.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Ironheadscum shooting Yos2 removes the only other suspect from the pool. He could kill me just fine to frame Yos.

[Ironhead]

I told you idiots that Korts was scum. How many times did someone say that he was CONFIRMED town? How confirmed is he now?

@CES: Why did you put me at L-1 so quickly on LYLO? As I'm reading down from the top of the page, I figured for sure you were scum because townies just don't do that. Poor play on your part -- Korts didn't even have to argue to convince you.

[Yosarian2]

So, wait...what was the setup really? Was one of the VT's lying?

Vengeful and vig together would unbalance the setup in favor of the town.

No, not at all. 8 player with a 1 shot vig is theoretically the same as 9 player vanilla, if the vig gets his shot off, except that there's one townie with a safe claim. 9 player vanilla with 2 scum is horribly unbalanced in favor of scum; 11 player vanilla with 2 scum is still very unbalanced in favor of the scum.

[Beck]

9 player with all vanilla isn't unbalanced if you know how to scum hunt.