Mini 126: Mini-Town Mafia Game over!

[Mastermind of Sin]

unofficial, but correct, Vote Count

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2 Mastermind of Sin (Quailman, Save The Dragons)
1 Quailman (Mastermind of Sin)

Not Voting:
Recky, mole, Yggdrasil, SinisterOverlord

7 alive, 4 to lynch

[Recky]

I'm going to be out for the next couple of days, though I might be back on Friday night GMT.

[EnPaceRequiescat]

1 Quailman: Mastermind of Sin
2 Mastermind of Sin: Quailman, Save The Dragons

7 alive, 4 to lynch!

and thx Mastermind of Sin, you are correct! now... how much did you bet for that final question...

[Quailman]

Ok, assuming FD was pro-town,

That's how he began his post that happened to be at the top of page 12. Any time we viewed that page, that was the first thing we saw. How convenient for MoS. He avoided voting for FD yesterday, and then makes that assumption, upon which he bases all of his accusations today. I believe FD was scum.

IMO, the smoking gun is the picture in Phoebus' camera. My vote stays where it is.

[mole]

[Photo 1] titled, “The scholar”: a gorgeous home furnished with books, and a charming fireplace
[Photo 2] (exposed early this morning, there fore no title): The silhouette of a person lying on a bench

I don't see anything suspicious in those photos, certainly nothing we didn't already know about spork/MoS being a hobo... What's the "smoking gun"?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Ok, assuming FD was pro-town,

That's how he began his post that happened to be at the top of page 12. Any time we viewed that page, that was the first thing we saw. How convenient for MoS. He avoided voting for FD yesterday, and then makes that assumption, upon which he bases all of his accusations today. I believe FD was scum.

IMO, the smoking gun is the picture in Phoebus' camera. My vote stays where it is.

You do realize that I also think FD was scum, don't you? Stop trying to twist my words and misrepresent me...thatjust makes you look more suspicious...I "avoided", as you so cleverly put it, voting for FD because I wasn't sure he was scum, and you always looked more suspicious. Also, you should notice that I said I would vote for him the next day, and within 12 hours of that post, you put the final vote on him...I would have done it anyway, so your argument there was useless...When I made that quote before, I meant to say IF we assume FD was pro-town, this was what was more likely...if he was scum, I later put my thoughts up about that, too, as I forgot the first time...

About the picture...are you trying to say that because Phoebus investigated me last night, I am obviously the one who killed him? I used my night action to go to the police station, and Recky saw me there, so I couldn't have killed him. That is, of course, assuming mafia are under the same restrictions as the rest of us...if the mafia are allowed to meet and decide on someone to kill as well as carrying out an action, I think the game was stacked in their favor from the beginning...Your reasoning, once again, is flawed, and this just makes me even more sure of my vote on you, Quailman...

[EnPaceRequiescat]

1 day w/out discussion... try to pick it up guys!

[Mastermind of Sin]

'm here, but I assume we are awaiting recky's return, since he is probably the most cleared person here, although he could have us all completely fooled...however, if that is the case, kudos to Recky, because I don't believe he's lying...

[Recky]

Well, I don't think there's a huge amount for me to add to what I've already said.

We seem to have 3 people here who we are unsure about - MMoS, Quailman and STD. I don't have any information on either of them, so we're shooting in the dark unless someone else wants to raise their voice. I have no strong opinion on STD's alignment, and am most suspicious of MMoS and Quailman.

Since I don't know whether I can check the entire park for evidence in the course of one night, it might make sense for us to lynch MMoS today and then have me look into either STD or Quailman tonight. Or, perhaps we should lynch Quailman and see what I can find out about MMoS. Either way, I'm pretty indifferent.

Anyone else have any thoughts as to how we should proceed?

[Quailman]

Well, if those are our only options, I know which one I'd recommend.

[Mastermind of Sin]

ditto for me...personally, the only way this makes sense is that quailman and STD are both mafia...everyone else is cleared, and of course I know I'm innocent, and they've provided alibis for each other too much for it to be any other way...no one else has been able to confirm their actions at night...

[Mastermind of Sin]

ditto for me...personally, the only way this makes sense is that quailman and STD are both mafia...everyone else is cleared, and of course I know I'm innocent, and they've provided alibis for each other too much for it to be any other way...no one else has been able to confirm their actions at night...

[Save The Dragons]

Got it. Ok.

I've been thinking about claiming all day, but I was worried about reprocussions or accidencts. I'm worried I am overlooking something. But I'll do this anyway.

I am the paperboy. That's why I'm on a bicycle. I am a mason group with Pheobus. Well, was.

Basically, I can peek into any building while on my paper route.

The first night, Adder just went into the gym, so all I got was that someone was in the Gym.

The second night, I took a look inside Quailman's pad. I found nothing suspicious. That's why I've been trying to protect him and all that.

The third night, I peeked inside SO's house. It looked like everything was out of place, when usually it was all neat. So I'm thinking the mafia may have tried to attack him. Or something.

I also know what role Ygg is, because Pheobus found out and told me. He was the journalist, and could take photographs of people.

By process of elimination, I think MMOS is the best bet for lynching.

[Save The Dragons]

Got it. Ok.

I've been thinking about claiming all day, but I was worried about reprocussions or accidencts. I'm worried I am overlooking something. But I'll do this anyway.

I am the paperboy. That's why I'm on a bicycle. I am a mason group with Pheobus. Well, was.

Basically, I can peek into any building while on my paper route.

The first night, Adder just went into the gym, so all I got was that someone was in the Gym.

The second night, I took a look inside Quailman's pad. I found nothing suspicious. That's why I've been trying to protect him and all that.

The third night, I peeked inside SO's house. It looked like everything was out of place, when usually it was all neat. So I'm thinking the mafia may have tried to attack him. Or something.

I also know what role Ygg is, because Pheobus found out and told me. He was the journalist, and could take photographs of people.

By process of elimination, I think MMOS is the best bet for lynching.

[Recky]

It strikes me that a mason combination of two people who could investigate and who could communicate to each other concerning their results would be too powerful. I also recall a somewhat sarcy remark made by Phoebus earlier in the thread about the possibility of a mason group in a game of this size.

STD - can you justify your vote for MMoS with any information you gleaned from Phoebus before he was bumped off?

[Mastermind of Sin]

I suppose I should tell the rest of my role as well, although I doubt it will help make you believe me...

At night, I can choose to follow someone, and if I had remembered, I would have followed Quailman last night...instead, I went to the police station, which can be verified, because Recky saw me there...

Also, I am given one night kill, which I also have yet to use...

If you don't believe me, that is fine, but let me suggest a course of action...

Quailman and STD are probably scum together...If we lynch quailman today, I can follow STD tonight, and if quailman was not scum, you can all lynch me the next day, because then I've made a big mistake. I don't see any other way this can work, because SO, Ygg, Mole, and Recky are all cleared...if you lynch quailman, you have a chance of eliminating one of two scum if I am right. If I am wrong, you can lynch me tomorrow...

If you lynch me and I was right, then you have two scum to dispose of, and you won't even be all that sure, because you won't have my results from the night before...By lynching me, the remaining scum will have the best chance to win unless I am scum. If I am scum, I have to be alone, since the only other non-cleared players are quailman and STD, both of which I have been trying to lynch...Therefore, lynch me today or tomorrow would not make a difference, because you would still have a majority...

[Mastermind of Sin]

Aww, crap! I just thought of something...what if the scum have a godfather, so that when recky investigates him he gets a different result? That could comepletely screw us over...damn...now I don't know what to do...there's no way we can be sure of who is godfather, but at this point, I think it is best that everyone reveal their roles

[Recky]

Everyone seems to be coming out with "mole is cleared", but I would remind you that this isn't confirmed as yet. He has roleclaimed, but we have no way of proving that he is what he says he is.

MMoS - remind me please, what you've done on previous nights?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Let's see here...apparently, Spork forgot this game existed, and he(I) forgot to send in night choices the first two nights, so I didn't do anything...last night, I forgot about my abilities, and I went to the Police Station, where you saw me, and I was told I would have to go to the city hall for information on laws and regulations, but I did not recieve any info. Had I remembered about my abilities, I would have followed quailman last night, but since I forgot, my reason for going to the police station was because I thought I might recieve info about someone since cops work there...sorta like a one night investigation or something...

In regards to mole, I think this can be solved easily...if mole can report part or all of the rumor he recieved about SO, you, recky, can check that against your results to see if they make sense together...at this point, I don't think it will hurt for SO's role to be partially revealed, since I believe this game will be over by the end of the next day, unless I get lynched today, in which case it will probably take two more days to finish off the scum...

[Yggdrasil]

Sorry for my absence (midterms :/) Hopefully, this post will make up for my recent lack of posting:

Working on the assumption that FD was mafia and we began with only 3 mafia, there should be only one mafia member. This means that anyone whose whereabouts/actions for last night are confirmed by someone is innocent (unless the mafia can visit somewhere and kill someone during the night). In addition, becuase we don't think we have two mafia, anyone whose innoence has been confirmed by someone else has to be innocent (unless the information was misinterpreted or we have a Godfather). On the Godfather note, the Minitown Chronicles wrote "Was he mafia? Or maybe even the godfather? The town can only hope so" (post #142). This suggests that he might have been the Godfather, so we may want to start with this assumption.

So, let's take a look at who has been cleared by whom:

Save The Dragons - claims paperboy/mason. No confirmation.
mole - Claims bar owner. Confirmed by SO's visit.
Quailman - No claim yet. Confirmed by STD's investigation.
Recky - Claims backup cop. Confirmed b/c no one else counterclaimed his investigation (witnessed by Phoebus) of Ygg's house.
SinisterOverlord - No claim, but innocence confirmed by STD's investigation and Recky's Investigation.
Mastermind of Sin - Claims hobo who can follow ppl/one-shot vig. No investigations, but partially confirmed b/c Recky saw him at the police station.
Yggdrasil - No claim, but innocence confirmed by Phoebus's investigation and Recky's Investigation.

In my opinion, Recky is pretty much completely cleared of guilt, so that means that SO and I are cleared also, unless:
1) both Recky and STD/Phoebus misinterpreted their results
2) Recky misinterpreted the results and STD is scum with SO/Ygg, or
3) one of us is the Godfather
In my opinion, 1 and 2 are very unlikely, and three is a slight posibility.

Assuming SO is innocent, we can confirm that mole really is the bar owner and that he could not be the remaining mafia because his whereabout were confirmed by SO (note to SO: did your night PM specifically say that you talked to mole? We don't want to discount the possibility that the bar tender is an NPC like the priest).

Because mole is reasonably confirmed, I see no reason why he should reveal information about SO. The less extraneous information we give the mafia, the better.

MMOS, although I am really uncomfortable with his roleclaim of a hobo who can investigate and has a one-shot kill, is reasonably confirmed because both Recky and Quailman saw him by the police station.

This leaves only STD and Quailman as possible scum. With the assumption that only one is scum, it doesn't make sense for Quailman to be scum, unless STD misinterpreted his results. Therefore, STD is the likely remaining scum.

However, there are some caveats to this argument. For example, it begins with a few asssumptions:
1) That we began with three scum. Considering how many investigative roles the town has (Electra, MMOS, Phoebus, Quailman) plus that all townies get info from walking around, EPR could have made a 4-person scum group to balance the town's power.
2) That FD is scum. Although it makes sense from the description of his house and the night kill scenes, we have no solid proof of this.
3) That DB is the Godfather. Likewise, it makes sense from what EPR tells us, but EPR could be trying to trick us.
4) That the scum cannot both go somewhere and kill. Although the town can only make one action or go somewhere, this may not apply to the mafia.

If any of these assumptions are false, they open up a lot of other possibilities. For example, if we were wrong about there being three scum or FD being scum, we are facing a lynch correctly or lose situation right now.

Although, it makes sense for STD to be scum, I'm not extremely sure of his guilt for a couple reasons:
1) He is claiming to have investigated Quailman and found him innocent. It does not make sense for a mafia member to defend one of the other viable lynching targets.
2) No one counterclaimed his claim that he found Jadesmar and took him to the hospital. Of course, this could just be a mafia trick to make us think he's innocent (and not a costly trick since there was such a small chance of Jadesmar's survival).

But, I think I know how we can determine whether STD is lying. Presumably he knows my role. If he can correctly name my role, then I think he may be reasonably confirmed.

If there's something wrong with my arguments, please point them out so that we don't make any stupid mistakes. Also, we should probably discuss the validity of the 4 assumptions this argument relies on.

[Mastermind of Sin]

this seems reasonable...STD claims to know your role, and mole claims to know SO's role, or something about it...SO and Recky can check against mole, and you and Recky can check against STD's claim...if both are cleared, that leaves quailman and I as the most obvious suspects left...however, I won't discount the possibility that there were four mafia, since almost everyone seems to have had some sort of role to help the town...with so many pro-town abilities, I wouldn't put it past EPR to have four scum...in fact, I think that is about the only way that works, unless mafia can take an action and kill each night...in which case most of my argument would be invalid, although there are still very few possibilities...I want to hear from STD and mole now, though...

[Save The Dragons]

Pheobus said you were the doctor, Ygg.

[Yggdrasil]

That is correct. So, now I'm not so sure that STD is scum. I will think about this some more and post later.

[Mastermind of Sin]

in that case, I am almost completely sure quailman is scum...the only other possibility is mole, who I await hearing his results on...then, recky can confirm whether both ygg's and SO's role evaluation correlate with his results...if that is all true, quailman must be the remaining scum...even though STD found nothing suspicious, the mafia's weapons might be in another building or something, not necissarily in quailman's pad...also, recky and STD, feel free to check me out tonight, I assure you I will come up innocent...

[Mastermind of Sin]

that is, of course, assuming the game doesn't end today with whomever we lynch...