Micro 737: Chosen Mafia (Day 4)

[Mulch]

hi

Talking to you, Umalaut!

[Bulbazoor]

I don't want Dunn voted. I'll vote gorny because he's far scummier.


VOTE: gorny

[Umlaut]

Official Vote Count 2.05

Dunnstral

(2): BTD6_maker, Gorny

BTD6_maker

(2): Mulch, Keychain

Gorny

(2): Dunnstral, Bulbazoor

Not Voting

(1): tman2nd

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2017-09-05 08:40:00)

[tman2nd]

I don't want Dunn voted. I'll vote gorny because he's far scummier.


VOTE: gorny

What do you think of BTD? And could you explain any of your reads?

[BTD6_maker]

Dunn! Actual words!

So my reasoning for the vote on BTD6:
We have a dayphase and a half of content, including flipped scum, but BTD6 is focusing on a pressure vote on lowhanging fruit instead of using that content to figure out and vote for someone they think is most likely scum.

It's not just a pressure vote. Pressure is partly the reason, but I wasn't particularly scumreading anyone else as much so Dunnstral is also my strongest scumread. I did try to figure out who the most likely scum is. My thought process was similar to Gorny's: I thought Dunnstral was using the images as a cover. Dunnstral has posted now. Of course they think both of us are wrong, but does that make either of us scum? In particular, I am not sure Gorny ever said that Dunnstral is probably not scum. He may have mentioned that he thought Dunnstral was less scummy than before, but that is not the same thing.

Bulbazoor is slightly more likely to be Chosen, as I have explained. If they are Chosen, the second scum would very likely be on their RVS wagon (if they were off the wagon, they could have hammered). This leaves Dunnstral, SAJ, and tman2nd as likely scum. (This is weak at the moment, as we do not know whether Bulbazoor really is chosen).

There's also this analysis. They have

almost

made a move towards finding scum, except that it depends on something unknowable. They are leaning on the setup so hard in nearly every single one of their posts instead of looking at what players are doing.

It's not unknowable. We cannot know for sure, but we can make educated guesses. In particular, we know that scum would want to lynch Chosens, so based on the evidence we have at the moment I think Bulbazoor is more likely than average to be Chosen.

@Dunn: Yes I see it but I disagree on the Gorny lynch. I think he would have switched his vote to BTD6 at end of day if he was partnered with PM. That said

Wow he talks.
Gering the pressure of two votes on you Dunn? Only two more on you and the town wind ź that is if you're scum like I think you are.

this is a bonkers response if his only reason for scumreading you is because he thinks you're avoiding having to respond by only posting images.
I still think BTD6 is more likely scum. Gorny's stance is explicable from confused town, BTD6's is less so.

You also never answered why you suspect tman and I'm still interested.

This point doesn't hold water. The reason was that they were posting images as a cover. At this point they knew that they could not continue posting images without running the risk of added pressure, which is why they switched to posting actual content. We can now judge whether their content now is Townish or scummy, but that doesn't change the fact that prior to that point they posted only images. Posting content doesn't completely erase what they did previously.

Alright listen up - the most likely person to be mafia here is Gorny and we should lynch them today. I don't know if you guys just don't see it but the way his opinion on me goes from me probably not being scum to thinking I'm scum for posting images is pretty disingenuous.

When did he ever say that you were probably not scum?

Yeah... don't make it

too

obvious that you didn't read 265, it might hurt my feelings.

I did read this, but I don't think "fair enough" classes as expressing the opinion that Dunn is probably not scum. "Fair enough" seemed to simply mean that he understood why you thought Dunn was Town (you thought that the points he made were likely from Town, regardless of whether they were words or pictures) but not necessarily that he also agreed with you. You can understand why someone holds a viewpoint without sharing it.

[tman2nd]

@BTD what do you think of Mulch?

At the moment pressuring Dunnstral is probably the best idea. They refuse to do anything useful or even post text.

I don't have much time now; however, I will analyse the Gorny/Keychain interactions when I get the chance.

Have you done this?

[Bulbazoor]

Dunn actually stopped posting in images and I like tman so far because he seems interested in solving the game

[tman2nd]

Dunn actually stopped posting in images and I like tman so far because he seems interested in solving the game

Why did you vote Gorny over BTD?

[tman2nd]

So BTD doesn't seem scummy to me. Neither does Dunnstral, but since Dunnstral was on the counter wagon to scum while BTD was on the wagon on scum, that breaks the tie for me. Everyone else, I'm thinking are town.

VOTE: Dunnstral

That's L-1.

[Dunnstral]

Dunn could be mafia, but I'm not finding much reason to think he's mafia beyond being on the counter wagon to PM, and that's not enough. There are multiple people on the wagon including me after all. I don't town read him either though.

[Dunnstral]

You also never answered why you suspect tman and I'm still interested.

They're just scummy in my opinion and it was also a little bit of poe - I don't think you, bulbazoor, or mulch are scum

[Mulch]

Hi Dunn

[tman2nd]

So BTD doesn't seem scummy to me. Neither does Dunnstral, but since Dunnstral was on the counter wagon to scum while BTD was on the wagon on scum, that breaks the tie for me.

Everyone else, I'm thinking are town.

VOTE: Dunnstral

That's L-1.

It comes down to POE to you and BTD, and I think you are more likely.

[Mulch]

I think btd more likely. Can I hammer guys?

[tman2nd]

You're already voting BTD.

[Keychain]

I would really, really prefer you didn't. I think we should lynch BTD6 today and Dunnstral is one of my top townreads.

Also why would you put those sentences next to each other?


PEdit: thought he was talking about hammering Dunn?

[Mulch]

How is Dunn a townread

[tman2nd]

Wait. I'm confused. What did you mean when you said BTD is more likely?

[Keychain]

@BTD6:
In post 76, Gorny finds that Dunn is looking less scummy based on his interactions. Post 201 has Gorny saying that Dunn's actions don't really fit with him being PM's scum partner. The only reason he's ever given for Dunn being scum is the posting style and every time he renews the push it is because of the images and nothing else. Every time he backs off it, it's because of the content.
You're right in that new developments don't erase the past, but Gorny seems to be taking any opportunity to push Dunn. He's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't, which is not a good way to scumhunt. (I have been burned by this before).

I'm not convinced that trying to determine Chosen townies is a good way to find scum - the problem I'm having with it is that we first have to figure out who we think is Chosen, then find scum from that without knowing if our first conclusion was correct or not. It's like trying to find partner associations before the flip.
But it sounds like you're proposing that any wagon PM was on is more likely to be Chosen on the basis that a D1 Chosen lynch is ideal for scum. In that vein, why would Dunnstral-as-scum have unvoted Bulba away from L-1 early on? And why do you think no one has been pushing Bulba today?

I would argue that refusing to consider posts as content if they don't contain words is kind of shooting yourself in the foot. You're deliberately not using information available to you.

How is Dunn a townread

I haven't tried putting together a proper towncase before! it feels like it might be confbias city.

Basically:
-the way he acted as a regulating force on the town at the start of the game by unvoting on speed wagons
-pointing out errors and inconsistencies (at least mine) without necessarily using that as an attempt to segue into a push
-pointing out things like Bulba replacing in and PM not saving himself, which iirc hadn't been noticed by the rest of the game.

Not to mention that if he was scum I think he would have started talking at the start of D2 after his partner was lynched, which is why I was looking for it. It would be incredibly difficult to push the Chosen lynch he needs to win by posting in images, without a partner to work with. It drew negative attention and stopping at daystart would have mostly avoided that.
I can't really imagine solo scum doing it - it feels far more like something a townie would do for fun until they realised they might get lynched for it.

[tman2nd]

VOTE: BTD6_maker

Ok. You've convinced me. Dunnstral does seem town.

This is now L-1 on BTD.

[Gorny]

@BTD6:
In post 76, Gorny finds that Dunn is looking less scummy based on his interactions. Post 201 has Gorny saying that Dunn's actions don't really fit with him being PM's scum partner. The only reason he's ever given for Dunn being scum is the posting style and every time he renews the push it is because of the images and nothing else. Every time he backs off it, it's because of the content.
You're right in that new developments don't erase the past, but Gorny seems to be taking any opportunity to push Dunn. He's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't, which is not a good way to scumhunt. (I have been burned by this before).

I'm not convinced that trying to determine Chosen townies is a good way to find scum - the problem I'm having with it is that we first have to figure out who we think is Chosen, then find scum from that without knowing if our first conclusion was correct or not. It's like trying to find partner associations before the flip.
But it sounds like you're proposing that any wagon PM was on is more likely to be Chosen on the basis that a D1 Chosen lynch is ideal for scum. In that vein, why would Dunnstral-as-scum have unvoted Bulba away from L-1 early on? And why do you think no one has been pushing Bulba today?

I would argue that refusing to consider posts as content if they don't contain words is kind of shooting yourself in the foot. You're deliberately not using information available to you.

How is Dunn a townread

I haven't tried putting together a proper towncase before! it feels like it might be confbias city.

Basically:
-the way he acted as a regulating force on the town at the start of the game by unvoting on speed wagons
-pointing out errors and inconsistencies (at least mine) without necessarily using that as an attempt to segue into a push
-pointing out things like Bulba replacing in and PM not saving himself, which iirc hadn't been noticed by the rest of the game.

Not to mention that if he was scum I think he would have started talking at the start of D2 after his partner was lynched, which is why I was looking for it. It would be incredibly difficult to push the Chosen lynch he needs to win by posting in images, without a partner to work with. It drew negative attention and stopping at daystart would have mostly avoided that.
I can't really imagine solo scum doing it - it feels far more like something a townie would do for fun until they realised they might get lynched for it.

I still think Dunn is scummy, but You've convinced me to look elsewhere. I'm willing to switch my vote to BTD but I'm not going to hammer without at least saying something about it.

[Gorny]

UNVOTE: Dunnstral


Hammering VOTE: BTD6

[tman2nd]

but I'm not going to hammer without at least saying something about it.

[Umlaut]

Official Vote Count 2.06 (Final)

BTD6_maker

(4): Mulch, Keychain, tman2nd, Gorny

Gorny

(2): Dunnstral, Bulbazoor

Dunnstral

(1): BTD6_maker

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[Umlaut]

BTD6_maker has been lynched!

Spoiler: What was he!?

Chosen Townie

Night 2 has fallen.

It will end in (expired on 2017-09-06 05:18:00), or once all living players have given me their permission to end the night early.