Mini 451 - Totally Awesome Mafia, Game Over

[Aimee]

Hmmm.... interesting developments here. I will have another post back soon.

[PJ.]

Pickemgenius replaces A Papaya, effective right now.

[Off the Mark]

wow, I have no idea what to make of that

[Stewie]

You know what? I agree 100% with Nabakov. We need to hear from CTD. I have read other games of his and I know he is a smart guy who usually does solid analysis. So what the heck is he doing here? Is this some sort of playstyle experiment? If so, it seems to me more likely to experiment with a scum or SK role. We need his input so we have something to evaluate.

vote: CrashTextDummie

What exactly makes you think he's more likely to experiment with a scum or SK role? Is there a reason why you find his "new" playing style particularly scummy?

Also, what's with the "At the end of the day, I wasn't sure" post you just made? Are you saying that you weren't confident enough if he was scum or not, but decided to lynch him anyways?

Whether or not it's better to lynch SK or mafia is redundant, unless we know who is SK and who is mafia, and we need to decide which one to lynch. As it stands, I'll conform to lynching anyone who is anti-town.

[Off the Mark]

What exactly makes you think he's more likely to experiment with a scum or SK role? Is there a reason why you find his "new" playing style particularly scummy?

Let's let him defend himself, shall we?

Also, what's with the "At the end of the day, I wasn't sure" post you just made? Are you saying that you weren't confident enough if he was scum or not, but decided to lynch him anyways?

Let's go over what happened again:

230 - N9V's first suspicious post

232 - Lowell votes for me

234 - another somewhat suspicious post by N9V

235 - Nekka posts "I give up, please lynch OtM tomorrow"

236 - Lowell hammers without a colon

237 - without seeing Lowell's post, I unvote to see if others are thinking the same as me about Nekka's "give up" speech -- I was thinking it meant he was town, but I didn't want to be too explicit about it because if Nekka was scum, then he could just say "Yeah that's what I meant."

241 - I ask Nekka to explain himself further. Again I am hoping he will post more to see if I get the same vibe I got from 235, but I don't want to say, "Do you mean X?" because it is too easy for Nekka-as-scum to just say, "Yeah, see, I'm town after all."

242 - N9V's post saying Nekka's "give up" speech is a scumtell.

243 - After N9V's post, I thought maybe I was just overthinking it and the simplest explanation is just that Nekka is scum, like I thought before. So I went back and read some of my interactions with Nekka. When I read the part I quoted in this post, "I'm convinced that OTM is scum!!! -- PS: I barely read your post", I felt like Nekka had to be scum so I went ahead and re-voted for him.

Now as it turned out, everything after post 236 turned out not to matter at all, since the mod honored Lowell's vote. But anyway, yeah I was pretty unsure throughout that whole exchange. Hopefully this gives you a little more insight into my motivations.

[NabakovNabakov]

I think everyone voting Nekka (besides the scum of course) went through that see-saw a few times. I was just confused by your post because it didn't seem to match up with the way you had acted Day 1, and that's suspicious. I still think it was poor play to vote on such a weak conviction, but when you say you didn't have any conviction (when your posting on Day 1 had a lot) there's a very scummy disconnect there.

Oh well, I guess your explanation makes sense. Just this time (especially now that we have some solid info), lets really think before we lynch.

Also, "Howdy Pickemgenius!" (

Mod:

Is it kosher to ask when and why Papaya requested a replacement?)

[pickemgenius]

Hey man, im going to post some shit later. Rockies vs Redsox game on right now.


go ROX!!

[PJ.]

That was almost a Modkillable offense. You should cheer against the Red Sox in a game modded by a Red Sox fan

[Stewie]

What exactly makes you think he's more likely to experiment with a scum or SK role? Is there a reason why you find his "new" playing style particularly scummy?

Let's let him defend himself, shall we?

When I told Nabakov (?) not to defend NL, it was because Nabakov was making assumptions as to what a post NL made actually meant. If NL was scum, he could have said "oh, yeah, that's what I meant." However, I am not speculating about the meaning for CTD's posts. I'm just saying that voting for someone just because they are playing differently is crappy logic; unless you can actually explain why it's more likely for someone to experiment as scum than as town.

On your explanation on the NL lynch, however, good enough of an explanation.

Since we have a new guy, I'm looking forward to his opinion.

[pickemgenius]

I hate the Rockies

alright enough with that.
And hey, atleast i'm not a Yankee fan I hate them.



You guys voted N-L off basically for obvious newbishness and vote hopping. Genius. Sorry for the sarcasm, but hey.


Off The Mark- You basically insisted that everyone that defended N-L was scum. Genius.

Well, if you've read the only other game I've played here, you are not going to believe a word I say, are you? (I was scum in that game) Well, don't worry, I have no reason to lie this time around.

I don't think I said anything worthy of townie confirmation.

Well, scum haven't piled on to N-L, so either he really is scum, or scum are being very cautious and taking their time.
(or scum are already voting for N-L, but I don't think this is the case, at least not all of em)

Another thing that is influencing this vote is something I am not sure it is cool to discuss. I won't say too much, but just think about the motivation behind post 112.
I think that post is more likely if hjallti is scum.

me-WIFOM

Post subject: 132
OK now I am pretty dang sure I was right about the 2-scum scenario I posted earlier. N-L and hjallti are both guilty, folks.

me- yea... no

Nekka has often looked so scummy that I cannot believe he is actually scum.

me- you said that more then once, and it still doesn't make any/much sense.

If I'm wrong and Nekka is townie, then I know I am going to look very bad.
So then you can lynch me or lynch the guys that agreed with me without saying much else, Lowell and Papaya.

me- WTF! That reads hey N-L is townie, but i'll happily divert myself away from a day two lynch by commenting on two other people who voted with not much reasoning so I can get on them about it day two.

I'm going to try to step into the background for a bit, since it seems my scumhunting is making me appear suspicious to some. Let's see what others have to say.

me- You honestly/really don't need to worry about looking suspicious unless you are scum.

Bobby responding to Mark on N-L comment("

I respect your opinion but I think you are scum" comment. They have no counter-argument for that because it is a dead giveaway.

)

I won't disagree that it's a strange comment, but I don't think it's the hard core solid evidence that you think it is.

I don't think it's hard evidence.

me- THEN WHY THE FUCK DID YOU SAY IT WAS A DEAD GIVEAWAY?

Geez you may as well have voted for him, because this looks equally suspicious. In fact, more so, if he comes up as town.

me- I <3 that part of that post, because I totally agree with you on it.

It is sooo easy for scum to setup scenarios so that it becomes a no-lose situation for them the next day, especially since they already know what the result of today's lynch will be.

me- i <3 that part of that post also.




~N9V~ - WHO???

I agree about you being defensive, and about how N-L isn't a newb town in your eyes, I think that's what you want. Guys,I say we lynch N-L today, find out his role, and go from there.

me- Well you forgot about the ones who haven't been doing alot.

If he comes up town, find out who was attacking him the most, and if scum, find out who was defending him, then started to attack him towards the end of his life. That will help us find scum.

me- I would suggest doing that.

No, cuz the SK is a lone player. That is if there is an SK.

me- I wouldn't doubt if you were the SK.



NabakovNabakov-

I'm going to have to agree with Stewie's reasons 1-4 that Nekka-Lucifer's behavior has been a bit fishy.
His song and dance with OTM (posts 39-44) where N-L decides OTM is mafia for being too townie.
Then he decides he's actually townie. Then he decides that, well shucks, he must be town too as a result (all in under 1 1/2 hours) just seems odd.

Me- No too townie arguement was used. Umm. N-L said

"I think we have come to the impression that we are both townie...."

I get a pretty townie vibe from reading him. He seems to be trying to help the town out, which I could be wrong, but I don't think so right now.

I disagree with the lurker bandwagons=bad thing though.

Post #143 in the game is pure gold IMO.



Stewie - I don't find anything he has done to be really scummy.

Whether or not it's better to lynch SK or mafia is redundant, unless we know who is SK and who is mafia, and we need to decide which one to lynch.
As it stands, I'll conform to lynching anyone who is anti-town.

me-<3 that. QFT



Hjallti - I don't feel him being that defensive, but that's just me. I kind of like him.

The bad thing about day 1 is that all the conversation revolved around Nekka and me, due to OtM pressuring us. In fact, we don't know much about the other 7 alive anyway.

me- QFT



bobbyplump- You really don't say alot, until post #215, which OTM likes.

Well, right now there are 6 people not voting for N-L:

Me, N-L himself, Aimee, THS, Nabakov, and Lowell.

I'm not switching my vote for aformentioned reasons. NL can't lynch himself. Aimee and THS are gone.

That leaves Nabakov and Lowell as the two people who can end this thing.
I'm not trying to push the lynch of a townie, but if it's inevitable, let's not waste another 9 pages (and god knows how many real life days).

me- look at that wording, i'm not trying to push the lynch of a townie. Umm, sounds like he knew N-L was a townie.

My first thought was indeed SK. Now who would that be?

me- Uhh, maybe you. (moreso then ~N9V~)
:extension: You want to go after the SK first, which makes me think of you as scum a little bit.


CrashTextDummie - Umm WHO?



Aimee - You were pretty non existant Day 1.

You want to go after mafia first instead of the SK.


Seriously no read on the last two.


So overall

OTM- You could very well be scum. I also get a town vibe in that you are actually looking for scum, you just post an asswad(which is good) so I get more from you then others.

~N9V~- Unless I see improvment you're in the middle.

NN- I feel really pretty good about ATM.

Stewie- I feel is alright ATM.

HJ- I feel is town. I honestly believe all mistakes were noob mistakes.

BP- I get an anti-town feel from you. SK or Mafia.


CTD- umm. who again?

Aimee- Need more in the middle.







If anybody want's clarification or whatever ask it. I'll be more then happy to reanalyze.

[Off the Mark]

Off The Mark- You basically insisted that everyone that defended N-L was scum. Genius.

Nice exaggeration. I thought two players defending Nekka seemed scummy, bobbyplump and Hjallti. In both cases, I had reasons other than their defense of Nekka. Nabakov defended Nekka too, and I never got a scum vibe from him.

I'm a little confused by the next part of your post where you just say "WIFOM" - are you saying that applies to all 4 of the quotes you posted of mine? The 2nd and the 4th quote have nothing to do with WIFOM. Did you even read post 112? It is a mod post - WIFOM does not apply. Analysis only becomes WIFOM when someone is trying to deceive you.

WTF! That reads hey N-L is townie, but i'll happily divert myself away from a day two lynch by commenting on two other people who voted with not much reasoning so I can get on them about it day two.

You are reading this with the benefit of already knowing Nekka came up innocent. There were times on Day 1 when he seemed sooo guilty and I'm not the only one who thought so. He really confused us, yesterday, you need to take that into account when you read. Sure, it seems different when you know which suspicions ended up being right and which ones were wrong. Read my post again and pretend you have no idea what Nekka is and it will make sense. You also have to take into account what I am responding to. I was just trying to show that even if I was wrong, we could use the bad bandwagon to find scum. That's all.

You honestly/really don't need to worry about looking suspicious unless you are scum.

Yes you do. It is bad town play to draw suspicion to yourself when you are innocent.

THEN WHY THE FUCK DID YOU SAY IT WAS A DEAD GIVEAWAY?

I have a tendency to overuse superlatives. I shouldn't have said "dead giveaway". It is naturally a part of my persuasive speech but it can get me in trouble. I did FEEL like it was a dead giveaway when I posted that, but no, it's not hard evidence. Does that make any sense? It's like the difference between going by your gut and going by pure logic. Gut told me that was a giveaway, logic told me it was just a little more evidence.

Most of your analysis is pretty good and I find myself agreeing with it. (except for the OtM could be scum part, heh) This doesn't make you any less scummy to me though. I am still slightly suspicious of Papaya/you though for the reasons I already explained. But CTD and N9V are who I feel we need to hear from more at this point.

[Off the Mark]

I'm just saying that voting for someone just because they are playing differently is crappy logic; unless you can actually explain why it's more likely for someone to experiment as scum than as town.

OK that is a legit question. And HAPPY BIRTHDAY STEWIE!

Basically, it seems like he doesn't have much to gain by changing his play style to zero content as a townie. All he's going to do is draw a little suspicion onto himself and maybe eventually get called out for the lack of content. But if he's a townie, and voting like a townie, what is he learning from the experiment? Not much.

But as a scum, it gives him info about how long he can keep up the playstyle before the town calls for his lynch. I don't know, I'm sure this is going to be criticized to death as WIFOM but we don't have anything else to go on when he refuses to say

anything

.

[NabakovNabakov]

Mod:

Prod on CrashText Dummie and ~NV9~ bitte.

@PEG: Your overall analysis seems sound and succinct. A few things

I think OTM is at least semi-correct when he says that hindsight is obscuring things a bit. Things may seem clear now, but they were confusing back in Day 1. My argument for N-L was based at least partially on gut-feeling/experience too (thanks for the props on 143 btw, took forever to get it to read right). But hindsight does not excuse everything.

Now that I read your analysis, NV does seem more scummy. His posts always sort of passed under my radar. I'll reread with him in mind.

Oh, and your use of ATM in refrence to me was at first unsettling, but then I realized that it meant At the Moment (and I wasn't thinking Automatic Teller Machine either)

[Aimee]

I read games that N9V was scum in. He plays like he does here - hiding under the radar, hoping he would be avoided (although he was). The very fact he plays like that here as well draws my suspicions.

[Off the Mark]

How about games where he was town?

Aimee, you were going to comment on the "developments" from the last page. Please let us know your thoughts.

[Aimee]

How about games where he was town?

Aimee, you were going to comment on the "developments" from the last page. Please let us know your thoughts.

Er... I haven't read a game he was town in yet (except my newbie game, which I don't think either of us want to share).

And yes, I did have interesting developments. All those I accused posted, but now A Papaya is replaced, we can't judge pickem on his actions. Nonetheless, hopefully by the end of the night I will have posted something (although I am not promising anything).

[~N9V~]

, I always play under the radar. You should try reading one of the games I'm in now. Will post link when game is done. I'm too perfect in it. Sorry, will anylize this game tommorow.

[Stewie]

, I always play under the radar. You should try reading one of the games I'm in now. Will post link when game is done.

Don't.

Aimee: to use an argument like that, you need to prove not only that he posts like that as scum, but also that he does not post like that as town.

[bobbyplump]

@pickem: you get an anti-town feeling from me based on two posts? One of which you mischaracterize what I'm saying. When did I ever push to lynch the SK first? I've never played with an SK, so I asked the group what we should do.

[pickemgenius]

But if we do lynch mafia today, both the mafia and the SK will still be able to make a kill tonight.

If we kill the SK today, only one townie will die tonight.

What are the win scenarios with an SK?

That sounds like you want to lynch the SK first.

[bobbyplump]

That sounds like you want to lynch the SK first.

That's me trying to think this thing through. Devil's advocate, if you will. You need to look at a series of posts, not just take one quote out of context.

Taking quotes out of context to suit your motives = scummy.

[pickemgenius]

We'll never know if you actually meant that, or if you were just playing devil's advocate.
I saw both sides after rereading that before I posted, and thought i'd bring it up to see what you would do.

[Aimee]

Remember, SK's could also kill the mafia.

[Off the Mark]

, I always play under the radar. You should try reading one of the games I'm in now. Will post link when game is done. I'm too perfect in it. Sorry, will anylize this game tommorow.

Translation: I take pride in my scummy playstyle.

This isn't making you look any better.

[~N9V~]

No, translation is I'm not one to post overly-much in games.Never have, probably never will. As you can see by my post total, I barly post 4 times a day. And also, all you have said is what posts have looked scummy of mine. Provide a better reason than that. Post why you think that they were scummy.