Micro 34: Bay Cruise Normal Mafia (Day 3- Game over)

[gorckat]

Vote Count

Not Voting (5)

: Baldanders, MichelSableheart, Demon Core, RedCoyote, denisatp


With 5 alive, it is 3 to lynch.

Day 3 ends Tuesday, October 23 at 5:00 PM EST: (expired on 2012-10-23 17:00:00)

[RedCoyote]

And again I ask... why is that? We know Verity's alignment. If anything, early game play is the most revealing.

You might not have been on the rofl wagon, but that doesn't mean you're not scum.

Yeah, so maybe the Zoro wagon would be more effective to read given that it was actually a lynch wagon. I just think it's pretty transparent that you're going straight to the first Verity wagon that didn't go through in order to call me scum rather than going to either of the lynch wagons. To me, it looks like you're trying to confirm the bias you've had since starting the game rather than keeping an open mind.

I never said that being on/off the rofl wagon means anything necessarily.

This is my point

Good. Then we agree. His siteflake didn't mean anything. His drop in activity was fair game.

---

Going to do some VCA before I cast my vote.

[RedCoyote]

I'm going to focus on four main VCs. I'm going to start with Verity right before rofl really picked up steam.

• zoroaster
  (4): RedCoyote,
  Empire, roflcopter
  , projectmatt
  
  roflcopter
  (2): MichelSableheart,
  iamausername
  
  
  Empire
  :
  zoroaster
  
  MichelSableheart: Baldanders
  Baldanders: ChannelDelibird

First off, I can see why DC wants to focus on Verity as a kneejerk reaction. Because there are two town flips on that wagon. I contend, though, that given that the three top wagons were all townies, that the scum were much less likely to necessarily have concentrated on getting Verity lynched.

Additionally, it seems a little weird that three townies were being voted out of the five different people being voted. I think this vote count gives scum points to Michel (x2), Baldanders, and deni. Michel gets two points for being on both the rofl wagon as well as being voted. Baldanders gets a point for being voted. deni gets a point for being on the Verity wagon.

Essentially, I think that the law of averages tells us that at least one of the scum was being voted at this point. Also, at least one scum was voting one of these three townies at this point.

• Demon Core(4): RedCoyote,
  roflcopter, zoroaster
  , Baldanders
  
  roflcopter
  (3): MichelSableheart,
  iamausername
  , projectmatt
  Baldanders: Demon Core
  
  Not Voting:
  Empire

Here is the CDB/DC wagon at its apex before rofl would take back over. I like this VC for analyzing because both rofl's flip as well as DC being spared. I inherently think this gives DC a scum point just because his wagon was abandoned in favor of rofl (who also claimed a PR). I insist that rofl was a scum-motivated wagon.

Additionally, I'm going to give one point to Michel and deni for pushing rofl over DC here. So I think, ultimately, DC, Michel, and deni all get a scum point here.

• roflcopter
  (5): Demon Core,
  Empire, iamausername
  , MichelSableheart,
  zoroaster
  
  
  zoroaster
  (2): Baldanders, RedCoyote
  Demon Core:
  roflcopter
  
  Baldanders: projectmatt

This is the last VC of D1. Obviously DC and Michel both get scum points for this. There was at least one scum on the rofl wagon, especially given the circumstances surrounding that lynch.

• zoroaster
  (4): RedCoyote,
  iamausername
  , MichelSableheart, denisatp
  Demon Core: Baldanders
  RedCoyote:
  zoroaster
  
  
  Not Voting: Demon Core

It's likely that at least one scum was on the Zoro lynch at the end of yesterday. This leads me to give Michel and deni a scum point each.

So, if you tally everything up...

Michel: |||||
deni: |||
DC: ||
Baldanders: |

I think Michel is the clear scum here. I am tempted to vote DC, but I tried my best to objectively analyze this game with the knowledge we have... and, surprisingly, this puts Michel in a much worse position than DC. Again, I'm just averaging everything over what I consider to be the four most important VCs over the course of the game.



tl;dr = Michel objectively is most likely to be scum based on his voting history despite the fact that I subjectively believe DC is scum.

Vote: MichelSableheart

[RedCoyote]

I should also add that I'm doing this to give us the best odds of hitting scum today. Obviously it's lylo today. I'm trying to come up with the lower hanging fruit in the scumteam. Once we get to three players, if I'm still alive, I'll likely give more weight to some other factors. In other words, I'm in no way saying that Michel and deni are the scumteam (although it's possible), just that Michel is the most likely scum here.

[gorckat]

Vote Count

MichelSableheart

: RedCoyote

Not Voting (4)

: Baldanders, MichelSableheart, Demon Core, denisatp


With 5 alive, it is 3 to lynch.

Day 3 ends Tuesday, October 23 at 5:00 PM EST: (expired on 2012-10-23 17:00:00)

[Baldanders]

rc what is your actual opinion on core then? not big on :statistics: because it's ridiculously easy for scum to use the facts to their advantage in this scenario if they know michel is town. this could be the most critical juncture of the game and yet you somehow don't have any real opinions on denis (who is actually town btw) and i aside from tallies?

[RedCoyote]

I really think that either DC's wagon was sabotaged in favor of rofl on D1. I just can't believe that so many townies wanted rofl dead. It doesn't make logical sense to me. When I see DC at 4 votes on D1, I'm thinking who prevented that wagon from going through? Empire & username, but they were town. DC wouldn't go after himself. Michel and matt stopped that wagon from going through in favor of rofl. My biggest thing in this game is that rofl, a claimed PR, was able to gain more support for a lynch than an active lurker at L-1. That doesn't make logical sense to me. rofl had to have had scum help to go through, especially in a game with the level of talent in the playerlist that this one has.

So, I mean, that tells you what I think of DC. On top of some of the things I've already said about him today. I don't feel good about that slot as town. But putting that aside, Michel has been in questionable spots throughout this game. As I've shown in what I would argue were the four most important VCs in this game: Of the seven votes on three different townies during early D1, odds are that one of those seven are scum. Michel is in the group. Of the five people being voted in that same VC, three of them have flipped town. Odds are that at least one of the other two players being voted is scum. Michel is in that group. Right before the DC wagon collapses in favor of a rofl lynch. Michel is in the group trying to get rofl lynched. In the actual final D1 VC, Michel is one of the five to lynch rofl (three of the others have flipped town). In the final D2 VC, Michel is in the group of people that lynched Zoro.

When you put all that together, it tells me that Michel is scum. There are just too many coincidences otherwise.

With regards to opinions on you and deni, I'd rather cross those bridges when we get there. I would not like to see either of you lynched today. I think you're likely town and I'm so-so on deni. But I don't think I should have to choose from you two. I think Michel is the play today because he's most likely to be scum based on objective vote count analysis and vote placement averaging. I would be satisfied with DC being lynched if that's what everyone else wants, but I think that's more of a gamble than Michel is. I don't think we have to take that gamble in lylo. I would absolutely not be satisfied with lynching either you or deni.

tl;dr = We should lynch most likely scum (Michel) in this lylo situation. I'd alternatively accept DC if that's what everyone else wants. I would not accept either you or deni today and prefer to worry about you two more tomorrow if I am still alive.

[Demon Core]

alright man. i already claimed and the claim basically makes me obvious town tbh

Why are you so concerned about this?

[gorckat]

Vote Count

MichelSableheart

: RedCoyote

Not Voting (4)

: Baldanders, MichelSableheart, Demon Core, denisatp


With 5 alive, it is 3 to lynch.

Day 3 ends Tuesday, October 23 at 5:00 PM EST: (expired on 2012-10-23 17:00:00)

MichelSableheart and denisatp prodded. Michel had been having weekend access issues earlier in the game, so looking to see if that is still the case.

[denisatp]

hello, im going to iso my top suspects and make a vote. correct me if i'm wrong, everybody other than me claims villager?

[denisatp]

baldanders i kno who u r and i think you're town honestly.

[denisatp]

it's really easy for you to correctly read me right now for /obvious/ reason (if you are who i think you are)

[denisatp]

okay i lied i don't really think anything

[Demon Core]

hello, im going to iso my top suspects and make a vote. correct me if i'm wrong, everybody other than me claims villager?

Correction: RC claims miller. Without a cop, it's functions more like a "named townie."

[gorckat]

Vote Count

MichelSableheart

: RedCoyote

Not Voting (4)

: Baldanders, MichelSableheart, Demon Core, denisatp


With 5 alive, it is 3 to lynch.

Day 3 ends Tuesday, October 23 at 5:00 PM EST: (expired on 2012-10-23 17:00:00)

[Baldanders]

wow, running out of time. dc really needs to Do Something because town as energetic as he was at the start of the day shouldn't have just stopped caring by now. all his recent posts have been snipes, no attempt to push his top suspect whatsoever even though it's lylo. if you're town then what happened man

i've settled on denis being obvtown for various reasons but i'm almost certainly not who he thinks i am. dc/rc scumteam makes no sense unless rc was ballsy as heck d1 so it's basically michel and one of core and rc, something we can talk about after michel flips scum

VOTE: MichelSableheart (L-1)

[Baldanders]

UNVOTE: MichelSableheart
eh on second thought i'd like to hear denis' thoughts first before going through w/ this

[Baldanders]

oh wait he's bulletproof whatever

VOTE: MichelSableheart (L-1)

yeah been thinking & i'm p confident i have this game figured out. lynch michel today, if i die tonight then youll have to take my word on it not being denis

[Baldanders]

yo we gonna sort this shit out or not? tired of this game being a lurkerfest tbh

[MichelSableheart]

Argh, very bad timing to not be able to log in. Sorry everyone.

Having thought about it some more, the empire, iaaun kills make no sense for most scumteams. If the empire kill was for cophunting, then a followup of iaaun is not logical. Baldanders response to DC's implication was far more likely to come from a cop. That means that the only logical explanation for the empire kill would be happiness with the situation after day 1. And the most likely player to be happy with that situation would be RC. Add that I'm being pushed as the mislynch for today by him and the lack of a hammer from DC and denis, and I think the correct play is to

Vote: Red Coyote

[gorckat]

Vote Count

MichelSableheart (2)

: RedCoyote, Baldanders

RedCoyote

: MichelSableheart

Not Voting (2)

: Demon Core, denisatp


With 5 alive, it is 3 to lynch.

Day 3 ends Tuesday, October 23 at 5:00 PM EST: (expired on 2012-10-23 17:00:00)

[gorckat]

RedCoyote prodded.

[RedCoyote]

I think the correct play is to

Vote: Red Coyote

It's your only play given that DC showed his hand before really going back and reading the game. Either he's your partner or I hope he has the courage to look past his bias against me.

Not much else to say. The fact that Michel has not been hammered all but confirms that, one, I'm right, and two, either deni or DC is his scumpartner. If Michel was town, he'd have been hammered and we'd have lost.

Also, if whomever is town between DC/deni lets this game hit the deadline without a lynch, you will be remembered for your supreme level of incompetence. That is inexcusable, especially given that I've done all the damn leg work.

*If the deadline hits before anyone has been lynched, then no one will be lynched.

[Demon Core]

/ack

Really starting to mistrust denis (this shakes my RC scumread). I have to re-evaluate.

[Demon Core]

Rest assured, I'm cognizant of the deadline and will place a vote before then.