Mafia 64: The New "C9" - Game over!

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Hi. I hope the scum and SK cross-kill properly. That's really all I have to say as Shteven is still my choice to lynch.

[MrBuddyLee]

Shteven - 4 - TCS, Glork, Billy Twilight, Yos2
TCS – 3 – Shteven, white, rogueben
White - 3 - Kinetic, MBL, Crash Text Dummy


With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch, 4 to lynch at deadline!

Shteven is the current deadline lynch. Deadline hits in less than 24 hours!

OK, hypothesis time:

With so many fantastic alternatives to vote for...
AND
The fact that if scum gets lynched today and NKed tonight by the SK...

I am going to forward the hypothesis that there is NO WAY scum is voting for their partner right now. It's incredibly risky and would be a hugely noob play, or a massive gambit, and I'm going to venture with 98% certainty that scum is playing this one conservatively.

What does this mean? Well, it enables us to eliminate some potential scumpairings. I'll list my top twenty pairings and italicize the ones this theory eliminates:

My scum list:
White
TCS
Yos
Twilight
Rogueben
Kinetic
Shteven
...
CTD
Glork
(I'm leaving CTD and Glork off of all pairings for now. Glork cause scum almost certainly tried to kill him, CTD because I got strong protown vibes off both him and inHim, and if they're mafia well damn.)

Possible combos:

White+TCS

White+Yos
White+Twilight
White+Rogueben
Twilight+TCS
Twilight+Yos
Twilight+Rogueben

Twilight+Shteven

Rogueben+TCS

Rogueben+Yos
Rogueben+Kinetic
Kinetic+Shteven

Kinetic+White

Kinetic+TCS
Kinetic+Yos
Shteven+White

Shteven+TCS

Shteven+Yos

Twilight+Kinetic
Rogueben+Shteven

[Shteven]

I'm fully aware that most players here would disagree with my reasoning on this, but I am willing to vote white to save myself. I was quite suspicious of Jack, and while I've been less so of White, there's still a good chance he's scum. I'd be much happier with TCS, as I'm sure you're all tired of hearing by now.

So this is not entirely a vote of self-preservation, but self-preservation is obviously a factor. I'll admit to that, and I know many of you won't like it.

Unvote; Vote: White

This still leaves me as the deadline lynch since I reached 4 first; either a 5th vote or one less person voting for me would be needed.

I have a 100% chance of being town. White, by statistics alone, is 33% scum. That's a much higher chance than I have.

[Shteven]

EBWOP: I'm fully aware the last line is WIFOM to the rest of you, but from my POV, it's not.

[White]

I still think you're town and would rather sacrifice myself than lynch someone i'm so sure is town. Besides, you've got a much better grasp on this game than I do. Therefore I will not be putting you at 5.

[Kinetic]

My scum list:
White
TCS
Yos
Twilight
Rogueben
Kinetic
Shteven
...
CTD
Glork
(I'm leaving CTD and Glork off of all pairings for now. Glork cause scum almost certainly tried to kill him, CTD because I got strong protown vibes off both him and inHim, and if they're mafia well damn.)

Possible combos:

White+TCS

White+Yos
White+Twilight
White+Rogueben
Twilight+TCS
Twilight+Yos
Twilight+Rogueben

Twilight+Shteven

Rogueben+TCS

Rogueben+Yos
Rogueben+Kinetic
Kinetic+Shteven

Kinetic+White

Kinetic+TCS
Kinetic+Yos
Shteven+White

Shteven+TCS

Shteven+Yos

Twilight+Kinetic
Rogueben+Shteven

Wouldn't the White/Kinetic pairing, by your logic, not work? I'm the first person voting White and I have been pushing it.

[Kinetic]

EBWOP: Wow... I thought you were bolding the likely pairings... just forget my last post...

[LoudmouthLee]

Shteven - 4 - TCS, Glork, Billy Twilight, Yos2
White - 4 - Kinetic, MBL, Crash Text Dummy, Shteven
TCS – 2 – white, rogueben


With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch, 4 to lynch at deadline!

Shteven is the current deadline lynch. Deadline hits in less than 12 hours!

[Glork]

Shteven, if you're anything but a Townie, now is the time to say so.


Also, White's most recent post has basically convinced me that he's town beyond reasonable doubt. Yeah, I realize it could be WIFOM, but that's a highly risky. *shrug*

[MrBuddyLee]

I was thinking the same thing... shit.

Are we looking at a Yos/TCS+Twilight pairing? It'd explain why we're having so much trouble...

[Shteven]

I agree that white's post is pretty much awesome. I think it would be possible to fake it, but either way, town or scum, it was an excellent move.

My move looks scummy and I feel slightly guilty, but as I'm assuming nothing will change at this point, you'll all see I'm a plain townie. No power roles left I think...doubt masons are around. It's probably better this way, I'd have that last post nagging at me all of day 5.

But I still hold it's the correct play; it only feels wrong.

Obviously I feel TCS will be the play for day 5, baring something like, oh, if he gets night killed.

Also, and this is very important, if by whatever means you find out TCS is scum, especially mafia, then

do not trust

Glork. I'm not saying

lynch

Glork, I'm saying do not trust Glork. I suppose if TCS is the SK, then it's reasonable to trust him.

Unless TCS is the goon, then definitely lynch Glork.

White, MBL, etc, all can wait.

All of my suspicions and thoughts are posted shortly before, nothing major has happened since.

I like line breaks.

That TCS is still alive is a disgrace to this town. Nothing personal, just sayin'. I suppose that this is a compliment to TCS scum

[Shteven]

Also I'd like to note that since being pretty widely cleared Billy hasn't really taken any risks. I realize he's busy, but when you're confirmed it's time to become more aggressive, not less so.

[Shteven]

I came up with a valid reason why TCS would want to hammer. Pretend I hadn't voted for White. If it was 4/3/3 still, he could safely revote me at the last second.

But, that wouldn't have any impact on the game whatsoever. What would impact the game would be if he changed his mind at the last moment and voted for someone else (aka white). He would do this if he was mafia, and didn't want to risk being associated with a mislynch.

This isn't much to go on, but as I've said a few times, I like to post everything, even the outside chances. It's not a very good strategy because he'd either have to bus his partner, which at this point isn't at all worth it, or really, really know that white was the SK. Neither are good goals. I suppose he could also force a no lynch, but that's one hell of a gambit as well. These are all outside chances.

[MrBuddyLee]

This sucks. I don't particularly think either Shteven or White are scum right now. If I move my vote to a third party I'm essentially lynching Shteven, who I think is the more innocent-looking of the two current candidates.

Alternatives:

Rogueben--was MoS bussing him D1? Did Yogurt play a pretty good game as scum and fool this many people? Did beanbagboy blatantly wave to his scumpartner at the start of the game?

CTD--yeah scummy, but investigated. if we're wrong we're kinda fucked. did he try to get investigated via weird behavior D1?

Yos--it's never really a good time to lynch Yos, you do it like you take cough medicine, with your nose held.

Twilight--same basic idea, his posts have been pretty damn solid when he's made them. Need to read with a fine-toothed comb.

Kinetic--looked scummy, Twilight cleared him, but what did he clear him of? Kinetic's posts have also looked somewhat townish from time to time, particularly his refusal to incriminate himself which I saw as bizarre but townish.

CTD--inHim was goofy and incautious, which looke dtown to me at least. CTD posted astutely and while scum could do that, iunno. need to see if he's manipulating for an end goal in any way.

[MrBuddyLee]

What would really suck is if we're up against a CTD-Yos-Twilight SK-scum-GF trio, which will be nearly impossible to detect and defeat. I'm gonna read all three of their posts again just in case, doubt I'll find anything new though. I suggest everyone do some work before deadline tonight and spit out your predictions. They'll be worth something tomorrow regardless of whether you live or die.

[Yosarian2]

This sucks. I don't particularly think either Shteven or White are scum right now. If I move my vote to a third party I'm essentially lynching Shteven, who I think is the more innocent-looking of the two current candidates.

Alternatives:

Rogueben--was MoS bussing him D1? Did Yogurt play a pretty good game as scum and fool this many people? Did beanbagboy blatantly wave to his scumpartner at the start of the game?

CTD--yeah scummy, but investigated. if we're wrong we're kinda fucked. did he try to get investigated via weird behavior D1?

Yos--it's never really a good time to lynch Yos, you do it like you take cough medicine, with your nose held.

Twilight--same basic idea, his posts have been pretty damn solid when he's made them. Need to read with a fine-toothed comb.

Kinetic--looked scummy, Twilight cleared him, but what did he clear him of? Kinetic's posts have also looked somewhat townish from time to time, particularly his refusal to incriminate himself which I saw as bizarre but townish.

CTD--inHim was goofy and incautious, which looke dtown to me at least. CTD posted astutely and while scum could do that, iunno. need to see if he's manipulating for an end goal in any way.

Yeah, looking at the alternatives is what makes me still think Shteven is probably the goon, MBL. Jack and White have both looked incredibly pro-town, and while either Kinetic or Rougeban is possible, I'm not seeing either one of them as all that likely at this point.

I also find it really, really odd that none of the people voting White ever bothered to respond to my "why I think Jack is pro-town" post.

[LoudmouthLee]

Shteven, townie, is LYNCHED!

Night actions due in 72 hours!

[LoudmouthLee]

All results actions / or conversations end early (as in, don't read anything from this), so early sunrise. Certain actions may or may not have been sent in advance.

Glork, Cop, Shot, N5
Kinetic, Townie, Chainsawed, N5.

7 alive, 4 to lynch.

[MrBuddyLee]

OK, this is getting interesting. White, if your play was for real at the end of yesterday, I'm tempted to take you off my suspicions list completely. I simply can't fathom mafia/SK making that play. Obviously you could have changed your mind if you bumped ahead of Shteven, but for whatever reason it didn't read like that.

Yos
Rogueben(YB)
CTD
TCS
Twilight

White--probable good guy
MBL--good guy

The good news is, we have a 60ish% chance of hitting a dirtbag today. The bad news is that unless we hit the SK they'll get two kills tonight, so after a lynch and two kills we'll most likely be down to FOUR.

Four with one scumbag remaining--lynch or lose after a possible no-lynch vote.
Four with two scumbags remaining and I believe we lose unless they crosskill?

So we need to nail something today and pray for at least one crosskill tonight. For whatever reason, the SK hit a terrible target last night. Only thing I can think is they were setting up someone who found Kinetic suspicious.

[MrBuddyLee]

If we want to shoot for the goon, we're down to choosing between Rogueben and Twilight if we assume White is clean. By the way, here's my list from yesterday with the people voting each other removed:

Possible combos:
White+Yos (Eliminate based on White's play?)
White+Twilight (Eliminate based on White's play?)
White+Rogueben (Eliminate based on White's play?)
Twilight+TCS
Twilight+Yos
Twilight+Rogueben
Rogueben+Yos

Rogueben+Kinetic DEAD
Kinetic+Shteven DEAD
Kinetic+TCS DEAD
Kinetic+Yos DEAD
Shteven+White DEAD
Twilight+Kinetic (twilight's massive defense post of Kinetic, not likely partners) DEAD
Rogueben+Shteven DEAD

And the two possibilities if scum was being crafty and voting for each other:
White+TCS
Rogueben+TCS

and unfortunately I need to add CTD back in for completeness' sake
Twilight+CTD
Rogueben+CTD
White+CTD (Eliminate based on White's play?)

This leaves as the most likely possibilities imo:

Twilight+TCS
Twilight+Yos
Twilight+Rogueben
Rogueben+Yos

And less likely:
White+Yos (Eliminate based on White's play?)
White+Twilight (Eliminate based on White's play?)
White+Rogueben (Eliminate based on White's play?)
White+TCS (Eliminate based on White's play?)

Rogueben+TCS (less likely--rb was voting TCS end of day
Twilight+CTD
Rogueben+CTD

White+CTD (Eliminate based on White's play?)

Billy in 3/4 of the most likely possibilities. Yos and Rogueben in half each. TCS in 1/4.

We also have to factor in the likelihood of each being the SK as we make our decision. I'll think over that as I reread.

In case any of you are skeptical about my guesses here, I'll only say that I've been right about a lot this game. No guarantee I'll keep being right, but I was right about Kinetic, Glork and Shteven. After being pretty right-on about MoS, Sarcastro, Guardian, Autumn, ManaSpryte.

Right now, my recommendation would be to lynch Twilight and hope the SK shoots for the right one of Yos/TCS. If the remaining scum manages to nail the SK, we win.

I am FASCINATED to see where everyone stands today.

[MrBuddyLee]

I just read Twilight's posts and I can definitely see him as the SK. Scumhunting-ish all game, with no success, lots of talk about killing potential SK candidates so we're not stuck with them at LoL. Dropping out of sight for long periods of time, then feeling the need to make up for it with spectacular CSI-style posts. Why the SK and not the GF? His SK talk and the tone of his scumhunting, which seems somewhat sincere, particularly the bit about Kinetic and possibly the bits about Glork being scum and YB being scum.

Finally, as SK his motive to kill Kinetic last night would be so that no one would suspect that BT could POSSIBLY be the SK, considering he'd just cleared Kinetic of being scum the day before.

Thoughts of mine. Not votes.

[Yosarian2]

If we want to shoot for the goon, we're down to choosing between Rogueben and Twilight if we assume White is clean.

Agreed. It's most likely Rougeben at this point; neither white nor billy twilight look like likely goons to me.

Your list of "possible combinations" are interesting, but dosn't really prove anything, especally since you don't explain why, for example, you're apparently considering CTD a less likely godfather then me, or anything else for that matter.

For quite a while now you've been seeming to downplay the chances of Rougeben being scum, but have never really explained why. Care to explain?

[White]

Ok, my thoughts here are that we've got probably 2 scum in a TCS (I still really think he's scum), CTD and Rogueben group. TCS and CTD can't be scum together though because Glork cleared them both. Which leaves a TCS Rogueben pair or CTD Rogueben pair.

The thoughts on Billy are interesting as I kinda got that vibe around midgame (thread wise) but then it disappeared. I've been very curious about his lurking though because he doesn't seem to need to lurk. The only explanation I can think of would be either RL got in the way or he didn't want to come on too protown that the mafia woudl target him. I highly doubt that he's mafia though.

MBL for SK, i'm starting to doubt that. I really don't see why he would kill Kinetic unless he was trying to frame me or TCS (I think kinetic was antiTCS) but that goes against his previous kills of people framing himself.

My two primary suspects for SK would be Billy (due to MBL's reasoning) and CTD (whom i've felt bad about all game. Inhim did nopt play protown in my eyes at all).

I don't know classic SKtells though so my SK hunting is likely to be way off. I'm just going off of people that seem scummy and eliminating from there.

If MBL isn't SK, I highly doubt he's scum as he's been seeming to scumhunt most of day 4.

I have gotten little to no vibes from Yos at all excluding the occasional town vibe so i'm willing to put him in the likely town pile as there are more suspicious people around.

I'm kinda surprised to be alive today so I want to make today count.

MajorFoS: TCS, Rogueben, CTD
MinorFoS: BillyTwilight

Not ready to vote until everyone checks in and offers some thoughts.

[MrBuddyLee]

Yos, I'll answer your questions in a few.

White, if Twilight's the SK, then who's the mafia team?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I was away and didn't get to hammer/claim.

I am a vanilla townie. I intended to falseclaim doctor when I hammered to try to draw the nightkill away from Glork.

We are soundly fucked. I think it's time to go for Billy or White.