Open 202 - Friends JK 9 (Game Over)


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Post Post #275 (ISO) » Sun Mar 14, 2010 5:02 am

Post by Regfan »

how was it "quite" clear?
Yesterday it seemed like everyone looked to him for help and an opinion, he was pretty much trying to lead our play and considered to be a townie from most players.
no. tracker should not "claim" yet. tracker doesn't get innocent, guilty results. they see if someone moved at night. jailer doesn't only "protect" either. they also roleblock. you seem eager to out town's power roles. you made a similar suggestion yesterday.
Yes, I'm used to EpicMafia.com where power-roles come out fairly early, share their information and help us catch the mafia. Tracker would know they have a guilty, not sure what you're on about because wouldn't the mafia visit Semi the dead who clearly the jailer did not visit otherwise Semi wouldn't be dead.
dry-fit hasn't posted today, so what exactly would have "disproved" your suspicions by now?
The night death, the lead up to the hammer and what alignment Bio flipped.
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Post Post #276 (ISO) » Sun Mar 14, 2010 5:05 am

Post by Regfan »

@Don, why, who would you have considered as the 'obvious protect' or more likely to die at night?
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Post Post #277 (ISO) » Sun Mar 14, 2010 5:07 am

Post by don_johnson »

Regfan wrote:
Yes, I'm used to EpicMafia.com where power-roles come out fairly early, share their information and help us catch the mafia. Tracker would know they have a guilty, not sure what you're on about because wouldn't the mafia visit Semi the dead who clearly the jailer did not visit otherwise Semi wouldn't be dead.
um, okay. that makes sense, but unless tracker has that result they should definitely not claim.
regfan wrote:
The night death, the lead up to the hammer and what alignment Bio flipped.
not following you here.

going into last night i was pretty sure dry-fit was scum, so i'm not going to argue with you too much here.

i just don't think power roles need to be claiming right off the bat. even if tracker has positive results, there is still the matter of finding the other mafia. i'd like to see more opinions first.

reg: i often follow the "one scum on, one scum off the vanilla townie day1 wagon" theory. do you think it applies here?
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Post Post #278 (ISO) » Sun Mar 14, 2010 5:09 am

Post by don_johnson »

Regfan wrote:@Don, why, who would you have considered as the 'obvious protect' or more likely to die at night?
i would have "protected" TDC. however, in this set-up, i imagine the jailer was looking to jail scum.
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Post Post #279 (ISO) » Sun Mar 14, 2010 5:12 am

Post by Regfan »

um, okay. that makes sense, but unless tracker has that result they should definitely not claim.
Which if you note is what I said.
regfan wrote:


The night death, the lead up to the hammer and what alignment Bio flipped.


not following you here.
The fact that Bio flipped a townie and how Dry tried to make a point of stating the he didn't think Bio was mafia yesterday yet did nothing to prevent his lynch makes me think he knew Bio was going to flip townie. And wanted to look good for today, but not do anything too drastic to stop the lynch on him.
reg: i often follow the "one scum on, one scum off the vanilla townie day1 wagon" theory. do you think it applies here?
Well, I've never heard of this theory so I'd love for you to expand on it a bit please, but if it just one mafia doesn't vote the lynch to avoid suspicion while the other pushes it then I don't believe in it. I think mafia would vote differently and have different tactics in every game especially to avoid this 'theory' biting them in the ass.
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Post Post #280 (ISO) » Sun Mar 14, 2010 5:15 am

Post by don_johnson »

its not a complicated theory. its just the idea that both scum avoid being on the same wagon on day 1 due to the heavy application of "bandwagon analysis" that goes on on this site. but obviously, you don't buy into it, so that's fine. i'll have to iso dry-fit, but ic ould definitely drop a vote there today. i want to see where he professed Bio being townie.

is there anybody out there?
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Post Post #281 (ISO) » Sun Mar 14, 2010 8:19 am

Post by TDC »

I don't remember Dry-fit proposing BH was town. I think he didn't state any opinion on him until
Dry-fit wrote:Bio's bad and seemingly opportunistic case on me is beginning to make him one of my top suspects.
Which I read as him agreeing with the lynch, even if it isn't his #1 choice.

Regfan wrote:Why hadn't the jailer jailed Semi, it was quite clear he needed the protection...
:roll:
don_johnson wrote:i imagine the jailer was looking to jail scum.
Agreed.
i often follow the "one scum on, one scum off the vanilla townie day1 wagon" theory
Have you found it to hold when you've used it?
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Post Post #282 (ISO) » Sun Mar 14, 2010 2:33 pm

Post by Lowell »

The talk about powerroles isn't that useful. Generally speaking, they'll probably be more useful as cleared innocents than they'll actually be useful power-wise.
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Post Post #283 (ISO) » Sun Mar 14, 2010 6:37 pm

Post by Regfan »

For you TDC:

Regfan wrote:
The cases don't interest you but you do nothing to prevent the lynch of something you don't believe in??

I never felt he was in such danger of a lynch to need a defense.


On - Post subject: 203

:Shrug: Asking lots of questions is my playstyle. I haven't done a lot of analysis this game because my top suspect is SerRose and he never really posted enough to do much analysis. The cases on CA and SA don't really interest me.


On - Post - 198
don_johnson wrote:
i imagine the jailer was looking to jail scum.

Agreed.
I really don't see how you can think this for a second, jailing a mafia with 2 mafia alive has no impact whatsoever, if there was only 1 mafia alive then yes, jailing scum would be beneficial. However will 2 mafia alive the jailer should only be aiming to prevent the kill from going through.
he talk about powerroles isn't that useful. Generally speaking, they'll probably be more useful as cleared innocents than they'll actually be useful power-wise.
Again I disagree, if we lynch a mafia and the jailer jails someone and a kill goes through the person jailed would be clear thus very useful. And tracker tracking a mafia gives us a 100% scum, so again very useful.
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Post Post #284 (ISO) » Mon Mar 15, 2010 4:51 am

Post by don_johnson »

"if we lynch mafia" is the key phrase there.

TDC: i have no idea. i have only used the theory twice, and it rang true both times(if i remember correctly), however, one time i was scum so i knew ahead of time. :) i wouldn't call it reliable just yet. i more or eless wanted an answer from regfan. he's really got me fence sitting. the power role talk and the nk speculation makes me want to lynch him, but its hard to argue with some of his points.

needing more input from others...
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Post Post #285 (ISO) » Mon Mar 15, 2010 2:26 pm

Post by TDC »

Regfan:
Both these comments were before BH entered the game. Also saying that he didn't think CA was in danger of being lynched and that he wasn't interested in the case on him is not quite the same thing as thinking he's town. Why do you not think that his most recent comment which clearly implies consent with the lynch overrides these indifferent comments on BH's predecessors?
I really don't see how you can think this for a second, jailing a mafia with 2 mafia alive has no impact whatsoever, if there was only 1 mafia alive then yes, jailing scum would be beneficial. However will 2 mafia alive the jailer should only be aiming to prevent the kill from going through.
Of course it has an impact, it just needs to be the mafiate that's submitting the kill. Hitting that one is (assuming random choice) just as likely as hitting the designated kill (or the Tracker, for that matter). The difference is that if you succeed you probably have scum, whereas if you succeed protecting someone you only have town. (Both of course, requiring you're reasonably sure about that person to begin with). I'm not claiming that trying to block the kill rather than to protect the victim is a far superior strategy (although I think it is slightly), just that your dismissal of it is unfounded.

dj: It seems to make sense as a theory, I guess we'd need to sift through some past games to get a bigger sample size though.
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Post Post #286 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 4:31 am

Post by don_johnson »

it is a pipe dream of mine to someday sit down with a team of research analysts and comb hundreds of mafia threads and accumulate enough data for serious statistical voting analysis, but alas, i have other things to do.

lowell: do you have any other relevant thoughts on who to lynch?
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Post Post #287 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 8:24 am

Post by Dry-fit »

WTF? I made a post last night, but I guess it didn't submit. Let's try again.
Regfan wrote:Anyway moving on. I still believe Dry-Fit is mafia and haven't seen anything to disprove my suspicions, if anything the fact he didn't vote with the Bio lynch and instead voted against me without any reasoning increases my suspicions.
I was voting for you because of your predecessor's actions, and already explained my reasoning for doing so.

I'd like to hear more from Lowell. He really seems to be sitting back and hiding in the background. He hasn't really stated opinions on any players other than Serrose and Confid/BioHazard throughout the whole game. His post 233 also concerns me. It looks like an attempt to justify his vote without bringing any attention to himself.

@Lowell: Who is your top suspect.
Andy Murray: Two time Wimbledon and one time US Open Champ! Former world number 1!

C'mon Andy!
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Post Post #288 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 12:10 pm

Post by Sleepless Assassin »

Don_Johnson, is Regfan your scumbuddy?

Regfan, is Don_Johnson your scumbuddy?
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Post Post #289 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 4:46 pm

Post by don_johnson »

Sleepless Assassin wrote:Don_Johnson, is Regfan your scumbuddy?
i do not have a scumbuddy. did i miss something? are we back in the rvs? contributions like this are rather weak. hows about you try some scumhunting. if you think one or both of regfan and myself are scum then making a case would be the proper way to proceed. otherwise you are active lurking...
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Post Post #290 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 4:49 pm

Post by Wdjat »

Sleepless Assassin wrote:Don_Johnson, is Regfan your scumbuddy?

Regfan, is Don_Johnson your scumbuddy?
:/
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Post Post #291 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 5:03 pm

Post by Wdjat »

Man, I am not liking the way Regfan starts out this day. The way he leans on his town read of semioldguy looks sketchy and the way he's tunneling on Dry-fit looks even worse. The whole outing power roles could be dismissed as being eager, but this wording really bugs me:
Regfan wrote:Yes, I'm used to EpicMafia.com where power-roles come out fairly early, share their information and
help us catch the mafia.
It's drawing this line in the sand where power roles that don't expose themselves are not helping the town.
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Post Post #292 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 5:20 pm

Post by Regfan »

Regfan:
Both these comments were before BH entered the game. Also saying that he didn't think CA was in danger of being lynched and that he wasn't interested in the case on him is not quite the same thing as thinking he's town. Why do you not think that his most recent comment which clearly implies consent with the lynch overrides these indifferent comments on BH's predecessors?
Saying that he didn't find the case appealing is him saying he doesn't agree with the lynch, yet if you watch he made no real case or attempt to actually scum hunt and consider putting up a strong case against anyone else to get the lynch changed. His recent comments in regards to BH's are overridden because they essentially were OMGUS comments, the second BH attempted to make a case against Dry, Dry said he changed his mind, but also didn't change his vote.
The difference is that if you succeed you probably have scum, whereas if you succeed protecting someone you only have town. (Both of course, requiring you're reasonably sure about that person to begin with). I'm not claiming that trying to block the kill rather than to protect the victim is a far superior strategy (although I think it is slightly), just that your dismissal of it is unfounded.
Actually I have a question here, to either the mod or anyone who wants to answer it. Do both mafia visit (Make the kill) as in if one mafia was jailed the one who sent in the kill order, would a no lynch occur or would the 'partner' make the kill while they were jailed. Because I'm used to both mafia visiting thus jailing one mafia while there's another alive is effectively useless.
Regfan, is Don_Johnson your scumbuddy?
No, I can assure you I am not mafia, thus it's impossible for anyone to be my scumbuddy.

Man, I am not liking the way Regfan starts out this day. The way he leans on his town read of semioldguy looks sketchy and the way he's tunneling on Dry-fit looks even worse. The whole outing power roles could be dismissed as being eager, but this wording really bugs me:
So you're saying that myself getting a town read on semi the guy who was helping us the most and when seeing him die being shocked that the jailer didn't jail him is scummy? I'd like you to elaborate on how you can even believe this.

Yes, I do have a sense of tunnel vision on against Dry, but that is because I'm quite confident in him being mafia.

If you take a look at all my points about the power-roles, they are all very valid. The best way to proceed today would be if our tracker does have a guilty, and how does suggesting they come out if they have one be suspicious. It's the best course of action, I'm not here saying 'TRACKER CLAIM, TRACKER WHERE ARE YOU'. I'm simply stating under what circumstances I believe it is in our best interest for the tracker to claim. If you wish to refute these circumstances, I would love to hear it otherwise I'd like you to explain yourself in regards to how my past-experience at epic mafia has anything to do with 'not helping the town'.
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Post Post #293 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 11:40 pm

Post by TDC »

How many games have you played on this site?
Have you ever been scum?
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Post Post #294 (ISO) » Wed Mar 17, 2010 12:17 am

Post by Regfan »

I have to completed games being Newbie 907 and Mini 916. And one currently going game, and no I have yet to be mafia.
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Post Post #295 (ISO) » Wed Mar 17, 2010 3:30 am

Post by don_johnson »

wdjat: reads on anyone else?
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Post Post #296 (ISO) » Wed Mar 17, 2010 5:05 am

Post by TDC »

Regfan wrote:I have to completed games being Newbie 907 and Mini 916. And one currently going game, and no I have yet to be mafia.
Why so few games in nine months? Anyway, had a short look and 916 had a Jailkeeper, though he wasn't successful (and both of you died fairly early) and it doesn't seem as if the mechanism was discussed. So to answer your question: If the designated killer gets blocked, the kill will fail, whether or not the other mafia member is still alive.

Putting this down as a town tell (I tend to believe the lack of knowledge is genuine and I think that this topic would probably have come up in night discussion).
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Post Post #297 (ISO) » Wed Mar 17, 2010 7:22 am

Post by Sleepless Assassin »

Vote Regfan
.
TDC wrote: Putting this down as a town tell (I tend to believe the lack of knowledge is genuine and I think that this topic would probably have come up in night discussion).
Even if it's genuine, how is lack of knowledge of a role a town tell? Why would scum talk about this at night?

Trying to figure out who Reg's scumbuddy isn't easy. It could very easily be any of Don/TDC/Lowell...
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Post Post #298 (ISO) » Wed Mar 17, 2010 7:40 am

Post by Regfan »

Why so few games in nine months?
I signed up roughly 9 months ago to join a Big Brother game on this site for a friend of mine. I signed up for a mini-mafia game then as well and ended up dropping out before day 1 really got underway. Only recently (A month ago) did I come back and give this a proper try.

So Sleepless, you push on Bio. Bio flips a townie, then you turn around and start leading on another townie, you're on fire this game dude. I'm shocked to see not even a bit of reaction from you in regards to Bio's alignment.
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Post Post #299 (ISO) » Wed Mar 17, 2010 8:22 am

Post by TDC »

Sleepless Assassin wrote:Even if it's genuine, how is lack of knowledge of a role a town tell? Why would scum talk about this at night?
Well, I guess we agree that it's certainly not a scum tell.
The topic could easily spring up while discussing who should perform the night kill.

The only thing I have found you to say about the Regfan slot is:
By the way, I'm kind of second guessing my town read on SerRose.
and
Don_Johnson, is Regfan your scumbuddy?

Regfan, is Don_Johnson your scumbuddy?
Mind expanding a bit?

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