Mini 732: Dr. Horrible's Sing-Along Mafia (Game Over!)

[Master Ruck]

I can also see another obvious reason why Gorrad would not want to take the cumulative tracker role. Without a doubt, it was the SK who killed the tracker so why would he do this? Simple. Because it's cumulative, it would be the best role for finding the SK and subsequently getting himself killed. That's why he killed the tracker as soon as he could. If Gorrad announced he would take the tracker role, then SK has another big threat again and would kill Gorrad that night to prevent himself being seen. In this case, I think leaving the tracker role was the best option. Course it's free to take now with a little less risk (scum may still want it dead) but I'll agree taking the weak doctor would be best for town at this moment.

[Yosarian2]

Just so long as he gets us some information tonight, if at all possible; remember, we're in lynch or lose tommorow if we don't lynch right today.

[Yosarian2]

Actually, scatch that. Weak doc is a bad idea. If we lynch wrong today, and he uses it and dies tonight, town loses on the spot. (Same reason I'm not going to be able to kill tonight.)

[Master Ruck]

Scratch that again. Not taking the weak doc is a bad idea. Sure, if we lynch wrong and he protects wrong, we lose, but that's just taking a risk. We may still lynch wrong, but if Gorrad takes weak doc and protects right, then we have another confirmed townie which makes one less person who could be scum. It narrows down our choice and makes it more likely to lynch scum tomorrow.

[Yosarian2]

Scratch that again. Not taking the weak doc is a bad idea. Sure, if we lynch wrong and he protects wrong, we lose, but that's just taking a risk. We may still lynch wrong, but if Gorrad takes weak doc and protects right, then we have another confirmed townie which makes one less person who could be scum. It narrows down our choice and makes it more likely to lynch scum tomorrow.

Let's say we lynch wrong today. Then if Gorrad is pro-town, and he uses the weak doc tonight, with 2 scum alive, there's a 2/4 chance he targets scum and dies (4 people alive who aren't him, 2 of them being scum), and if so the town loses on the spot. There's also a 1/5 chance him and the scum target the same person (actually, a lot higher then that, considering both him and the scum are going to be trying to hit someone who looks pro-town) in which case we get no information. So, (quick mental math..) There's a 5/10 chance town instantly loses, a 2/10 chance he gets no information, and only a 3/10 chance he gets useful information but dosn't make the town lose. And, to top it off, the information he would get isn;t likely to be THAT useful anyway, since he'd be targeting someone who looks pro-town, so it's someone we'd not be that likely to lynch anyway.

So, no. Trying to use a weak doc ability would be a terrible, terrible idea, just a really bad gamble. If Gorrad is town, he should probably take the watcher ability, and should definatly not, under ANY circumstances, take the weak doctor ability.

Of course, all that assumes Gorrad as town, which I'm really not that confident about at this point; I still have trouble seeing a pro-town Gorrad intentionally deciding he'd rather do nothing (especally in a game with as few nights as this one is likely to have) rather then get a tracker ability, just because the tracker might draw a nightkill; "hey, I'd rather be vanillia then a useful power role because being a power role might get me nightkilled" is NOT good pro-town logic.

[Master Ruck]

Tracker got killed N0 by the SK and picking up that power would only get him killed right away. Had he taken it, nothing would have been gained at all.

That logic of yours is off too. If Gorrad takes the role, protects someone and lives to tell the tale, then there is information. That you would think if scum target who Gorrad protects gains no information makes no sense to me what so ever as it tells us that Gorrad protected a townie that scum saw as a threat. If anything, it gives us more information than the role normally would.

Though, I didn't realise how few people there would be by the time he would be able to use that ability so I will agree that it is a gamble. Maybe the jailkeeper would be a better choice seeing as the number of roles with a night action is drastically shrinking.

[Yosarian2]

That's right; duh, if he and scum target the same person that person would live, lol. But, yeah; a 50/50 chance to lose the whole game for the town on the spot is way too high.

Jailkeeper wouldn't be too bad; if he managed to stop a kill, it might give us information (although, pretty ambiguas and unclear information, since we wouldn't know if it was the roleblock, the doc protection, or posssibly the commuter or Bad Horse roles that stopped the kill), and if it put us at even numbers it might give me a chance to make another vig kill.

Still, I think watcher is the best bet, that's almost guarenteed to give us information, might actually catch us a scum if he watches the guy who gets killed, and we can order the bodyguard to protect the watcher (that way, if the bodyguard is scum, he still won't be able to kill the watcher or we'll know the bodyguard is scum).

[Master Ruck]

Before we go on with this, we definitely need to hear who hasdgfas guarded last night, though I fear this may lead to another replacement.

[Gorrad]

Mod:

Real life is extremely crazy right now and I have a bunch of crap to do, so I'm V/LA until Tuesday, and will be doing my best NOT to post so I can get everything done. If you feel that's too long, feel free to replace me.

I haven't seen Fhwgwgads bail on a game yet, to my recollection. He'll be back.

As for my role, I'm not bloody well telling right now. I've got ideas of my own, and y'all aren't helping any by telling scum what I might do.

[Master Ruck]

Forgot that Hasd post.

Point also taken. Should we instead discuss who Yosarian should kill tonight? Maybe now might be a good time to guide the vig kill instead of leaving it solely to Yosarian.

[Gorrad]

I'm tempted to say that he should vig himself, as I find him pretty suspect, but if we mislynch today that could lose us the game.

Can we agree that no matter what, a mislynch today means he doesn't kill?

[Yosarian2]

I'm tempted to say that he should vig himself, as I find him pretty suspect, but if we mislynch today that could lose us the game.

Can we agree that no matter what, a mislynch today means he doesn't kill?

Actually, even with a correct lynch today, killing's probably a bad idea unless I'm pretty sure I know who the last scum is. There's a good reason to keep the town with an odd number of people; if we lynch right today, we go into tommorow with 5 alive and 1 scum, we have 2 lynches left; which is a LOT better then going into tommorow with 4 alive and 1 scum. So, yeah; like I already said, I'm not going to kill tonight.

(Same reason I'm not going to be able to kill tonight.)

[Gorrad]

I'll agree to that, Yos.

I was waiting for the claiim thin tio ebd.

Your one post D2, and it's worthless. Content now, plskthx.

[Porochaz]

what do you want me to do during a claim in which Im a doublevoter with no night action? Im at uni I will comment if needed on the stuff after my last post later.

[Malyss]

I'm not sorry that I missed out on the discussion of what role Gorrad should take on, I'm just disappointed that he didn't realize sooner how it worked, that it wasn't a night action. Meh. Stuff happens.

Not that my night action matters much given that it's self-protective, but given that Megatheory FOD'd me and I am town, I decided to target him with my horsely night action.

[Gorrad]

I have recieved confirmation as to how my role works. I won't say how, for reasons stated. Just confirming that I got confirmation.

[Gorrad]

Frik. Sorry for the double post, but I just realised something. If Hasdgfas is scum, we're in basically LYLO. Tomorrow is three to lynch if we get two deaths by then- If we lynch wrong today and the mafia get a kill in, we're hosed.

Ways to tackle this:

1) Kill Hasdgfas today. Easily solves the issue.

2) Yos kills Hasdgfas tonight. Could result in loss if we mislynch.

3) Rely on us lynching correctly today.

4) Rely on the night kill not working.

5) Be really, really quick to all vote Hadgfas if we mislynch (Could result in loss if he's town).

The only way I see that's a reliable, sure way not to lose tomorrow is to lynch Hasd. If we don't lynch Hasd and mislynch, we've got a strong chance of loss tomorrow.

If anyone sees a way around this, let me know. I'm stuck.

[Yosarian2]

Frik. Sorry for the double post, but I just realised something. If Hasdgfas is scum, we're in basically LYLO. Tomorrow is three to lynch if we get two deaths by then- If we lynch wrong today and the mafia get a kill in, we're hosed.

How so? Hasdgfas is the bodyguard, right?

Now, on the other hand, if Porochaz is scum, then we're basically in lynch or lose; he's a double voter, so tommorow him an another scum could speedlynch a town and win. Is that what you meant?

In any case, either way, we only have 3 lynches left and we have to get 2 of them right. Our goal really needs to be to lynch right today, in any case. We've got 7 people, basically no abilities left worth basically anything, and 2 scum; what we need to do is good old fashioned scumhunting. Which means we need everyone to be active and posting, and we need everyone to be analyitical and to be activly trying to find scum. I'm not sure why, before I replaced in, everyone was sitting around waiting for claims, but that needs to stop now.

[Gorrad]

Whoops! Swapped the two long, ridiculous usernames that were right by each other on the role list.

Yes, that's what I meant. That we could be speedlynched tomorrow.

I'm not willing to risk the game on one lynch if we can be given two. Given Porochaz' lack of activity D2, I'm bloody well willing to vote him for lurking even if he wouldn't be a huge danger D3.

Now, if we had some way to be sure of a good lynch today, I'd jump on it. But we don't, and I'm feeling cynical enough (See last bit of 268) that I don't trust us to. So I'm going with the choice that garuntees us a D3 and gets rid of a useless lurker.

Vote: Porochaz

[Yosarian2]

Well, it's a point in favor of lynching Prozac, that's true.

Prozac; who do you think we should lynch?

[hasdgfas]

back tomorrow guys. If you have any questions for me, feel free to ask them as I'll see them in my re-read.

[hasdgfas]

Catching up. At least not much has happened >.>

I don't like posts 242-244 that all comment on how nothing's happening, but don't do anything to cause things to happen.
Post 248 - Yos2: I prefer maximizing the amount of town-controlled kills. Sure, it might also be scum-controlled, but I still prefer using it. Maybe calling it scummy was a bit harsh, but I don't like a no-kill here.
Post 251 - Ruck: Although Mega did express suspicion of fuzzy during day 1, so I don't find it all that strange.
Post 252 - Yos2: Still want me to claim my target?
Post 259 - Gorrad: Hmm, role arguments in a smalltown aren't usually a good idea, IMO. Scumhunting is still pretty important, and everyone has a role, it's not like we can say "oh, vanilla, easy choice for a vig kill"
Post 268 - Gorrad: I don't like the argument of "I might die quickly if I take a good role". Isn't getting killed due to role better than being killed because the scum think you can scumhunt for them more easily?
Post 277 - Yos2: If you really think someone is scum, why shouldn't you kill them, even if it might lose the game for the town? Would you rather control it or have to convince the town you're right?
Post 279 - Yos2: I agree with Yosarian2 about Gorrad.
Post 285 - Gorrad: Why do you find him suspect? I haven't seen you express any reasoning for it, and with the fact that Yos was supicious of you first, this seems like pure OMGUS to me. I also don't think it's a bad idea to keep him from killing if we mislynch.
Post 288 - Porochaz: I find it very strange that you don't have

anything

to add to what's been said today.

I'm going to

FoS: Gorrad and Porochaz

I feel them as scum right now. I really don't like Post 285 where he expresses suspicion of Yos2 with no reasoning and says that a self-vig is a good idea.
Porochaz has done nothing, which is probably the best scum play right now.

[Gorrad]

Ok, the three posts you brought up:

259: I already stated my feeling on this. I didn't think Fuzzy was scum, I wouldn't have chosen him as a vig, and the fact that he was one of our two remaining information roles (the other being the death-prone Weak Doc) is nothing more than icing on the cake. Plus, the fact that he was such a role makes him an optimal mafia choice.

268: I thought at the time that I could not use my power during the day. Whether or not this assumption was true, I'm not currently saying. I didn't expect three of the best roles to die in one night. Should I have taken the role? Probably. That was honestly a mistake in judgment on my part.

285: Reread that post, Cow. I say it's a bad idea for him to kill, and that includes himself. In 285 I say it's at least a bad idea for him to kill if we mislynch, then in 287 I extend that to no vig tonight no matter what. Yeah, under different circumstances, I would say it's a good idea for him to do so, I think he's scummy. But now? No.

I state suspicion of Megatheory/Yos in posts 51 and 253, and I spend a good amount of D2 challenging Megatheory's target of Fuzzy. I thought that was enough prior base that the fact I was suspicious was obvious.

Hasd, what do you think of 291/293?

[Yosarian2]

Catching up. At least not much has happened >.>

I don't like posts 242-244 that all comment on how nothing's happening, but don't do anything to cause things to happen.
Post 248 - Yos2: I prefer maximizing the amount of town-controlled kills. Sure, it might also be scum-controlled, but I still prefer using it. Maybe calling it scummy was a bit harsh, but I don't like a no-kill here.

Eh...town controlled kills is one thing, but a totally random night zero kill can really reduce the amount of days the town gets (if there had been one more kill night zero and it hadn't hit a scum, we'd be in lynch or lose right now), and it means the town gets a lot less information, since someone just dies without saying anything at all.

Post 252 - Yos2: Still want me to claim my target?

Is there some reason you don't want to? Everyone is claiming targets today, right?

Post 277 - Yos2: If you really think someone is scum, why shouldn't you kill them, even if it might lose the game for the town? Would you rather control it or have to convince the town you're right?

Eh...if I was really, really sure, I might, but meh. Even so, though, I'd rather lynch a scum in a 5 player lynch or lose then nightkill one, because lynching a scum in that situation often gives a lot of info that helps find the last one,

[hasdgfas]

Post 252 - Yos2: Still want me to claim my target?

Is there some reason you don't want to? Everyone is claiming targets today, right?

Sure, and it's not like I didn't want to, but other things had been discussed.
Anyway, I forgot to send in a choice, because I was sick during night and completely forgot I hadn't sent my choice in. I sort of hinted at this at the beginning of the day when I said it was a good thing I've been sick, because I would have probably protected Rishi.

Will respond to Gorrad when I get back from class later.