In post 2493, Detective Pikachu wrote:In post 2138, u r a person 2 wrote:
In post 2132, Exilon wrote:
I havent gotten around to doing the whole math urap2 sorry but doesn't seem like it'll be necessary after this
yeah i mean why would you want to figure out why it's auto from your pov
this is also scum
guess I was wrong on egix
damn if this isn't a post that I really hate
hate it or not, this is how my paranoia over his slot started
I don't think me talking about skygazer in the third person is AI at all
if you do a a real metadive on me (and this current analysis suggests that you might) you'll notice that my push on people usually has two parts. There is the part where I engage with someone directly, usually by starting with questioning them directly, and then the part where I turn from that interaction to argue my case to the rest of the thread. Often the line can be found where I ask the thread what they think about whomever I've been engaging and fos'ing.
The first part of that process is to get more data. The second part starts when enough data has been gathered to make a compelling case. In skygazer's case, there was no need to engage them for the purpose of gaining data, so I jumped to the part where I analyze and talk about the thread with others. hence third person
In post 332, Inferno390 wrote:Then why would you ask this question?
If skitter wants to sort you, then shouldn’t she be asking you questions rather than the other way around?
This whole last section feels like you spewing Town in an attempt to get skitter to townread you.
I don’t like that.
Why can't I help her along the path? Isn't that what friends are for?
In post 334, u r a person 2 wrote:Oh, it is me spewing town, you're right about that. If you're town, that should be a good thing from your perspective. Why isn't it?
In post 336, u r a person 2 wrote:Like seriously. Someone has been asking me to provide content so that they can sort me for days. Now I'm providing content and you're shading it with a scum motivation, but what would the townie thing to do be? Not provide content? You're either tunneled or arguing in bad faith
and the fact his wagon started is really bad.
I'm feel less like Sash scum with the VT claim and even though VT lynch / scum lynch isn't a bad choice day 1 I don't think Sash flips scum here.
I don't think that URA's wagon was all town either so Skitter, Inferno or RuiRui have 1-2 scum.
The current RuiRui wagon looks all town other than Skitter. Skitter is just looking for a lynch rather scum hunting and their voting patterns/reasons show this.
If it comes to it I'll vote RuiRui over Sash and URA but I think Skitter is just out right scum and it doesn't look like bussing.
VOTE: Skitter
YGTI
this is actually just spewing me town?
Actually one thing I think is interesting here is that when Inferno accuses you of spewing Skitter as town in an attempt to get her to townread you, you seem to deliberately misunderstand his argument so that you make it seem like you're spewing yourself town.
But in this point about Egix, you clearly understand that HRG would have been "spewing you town"
It's kinda like you're selective on whether you choose to understand the concept or not
In post 2503, Detective Pikachu wrote:Actually one thing I think is interesting here is that when Inferno accuses you of spewing Skitter as town in an attempt to get her to townread you, you seem to deliberately misunderstand his argument so that you make it seem like you're spewing yourself town.
But in this point about Egix, you clearly understand that HRG would have been "spewing you town"
It's kinda like you're selective on whether you choose to understand the concept or not
I think you're actually misunderstanding what inferno was saying.
I've heard spew town, as in scum!mark spewed jake town
and as in Cathy spewed (herself) town.
he was saying that I was deliberately trying to show that I was town in an attempt to pocket skitter.
If he had meant that I was spewing skitter as town while trying to pocket her, the sentence structure would be different.
I mean you're obviously caught scum here. Skitter recognized that your reads day 1 were faked, Inferno got into a 1v1 with you, and your slot was under increasing pressure. Your entire scum team committed to saving your slot by lynching RuiRui and hoping they wouldn't get too much blowback for it, given that a day 1 scum lynch in a setup with no strongman and a bulletproof IC would be almost certainly game losing for scum. You killed CDB as a non-informational kill and to strengthen townreads on both you and Ausuka, even though his townreads on each of you were unreliable and tentative to change.
On day 2 you were so uninterested in NKA that you actually forgot it was day 2. You did some minor distancing with Ausuka, but got off when the new IC came in and asked for real pushes. Then, you hammered Sashaddin when there was no actual risk of a no lynch given that the IC was online and opposing his lynch; all this did was guarantee that I would not push a CFD onto Ausuka, who was one of my top suspects. Thanks to Garmr's hider claim gambit, this also allowed you to kill Inferno, who had been hard pushing you day 1 and was starting to reconsider his townread on you from day 2. This allowed his death to be read as non-informational while actually giving you the chance to get rid of the one person consistently scumreading you.
The next day you began by hoping you could continue your strategy of open wolfing by hard townreading Ausuka and buying her claim. However, when you realized you were losing both me and skitter because of your defense of Ausuka, you realized you needed to initiate some hard bussing since the game was rapidly approaching an auto-loss for scum. Hence you did a massively long-winded write up explaining why ausuka had to be bussed even though this contradicted your own reads and thought processes. However, you still recognized that none of your three slots would win in end-game. Things really went tits up when you were explaining to Skygazer some of the setup so far, and then she fake-claimed without realizing that *even though she was informed I was BP* that I had not actually claimed BP. The intention of this was to create a mechanical bus on Ausuka that would get Skygazer towncred. However, Skygazer messed it up, and then you nearly actually slipped that you knew I had a modifier. Since you realized I still hadn't claimed BP, you felt the need to hard bus Skygazer on day 4, thinking that I would claim before she was actually lynched. To your surprise, the town agreed with your one-post case and then Sky self hammered before her slot could save itself, while also spewing Exilon scum. You realized that if Exilon never got lynched, you would lose, so keeping analysis to a minimum you slightly pushed him day 5 hoping that bob would go back to his initial read.
Vis-a-vis you have been operating with a scum agenda in mind the entire game, whereas Egix is spewed town by his decision to push Ausuka immediately after my replace in and ask for real cases, as well as by his pure, real thought processes throughout the entire game.
Anyone who looks at the previous page and the "Juxtaposition" game must conclude that you are the scum in this scenario.
So, urap, would you like to concede now that your dastardly plans have all fallen through?
Think about scum pt culture. I've been engaged with this game all the way through. Do you think that the rest of the scum team plays this apathetically while I'm powerwolfing, to the tune of so many replace outs?
Or do you think that's more likely in the world where the last scum was also apathetic?
Well most of the replace-outs weren't due to this game specifically; Gamma and HRG both siteflaked so those really are truly NAI. And cby was early in a game with a bp IC so I don't see that as necessarily super AI either. I honestly don't think the replacements on the scum slot this game are actually indicative of the overall scumteam's evaluation of their chances.
I mean there's a variety of my concerns there. The day 1 Ausuka read both skitter and inferno called out as reading as fake, which to me feels like it was partly due to it occurring one minute after your previous post which suggests you more thought you should be throwing out more townreads or it would sound good rather than that you were thinking about it
I so think all three scum being on the day 1 lynch is more frequent if it's due in part to your slot being under pressure
also, the way you switched to 3rd person with skygazer makes me wonder whether you were actually annoyed at her for creating a mechanical bus that guaranteed ausuka was lynched that day; if you are s/s that was pretty clearly unplanned and that may have been your indication you had to continue bussing her at that point
also, inferno starting to say that he was reconsidering his read on you toward the end of his iso does suggest that scum would have had additional motivation to kill there (although he was already on Ausuka so there was already motivation either way).
It would also be a lot easier to believe that the 1v1 with ausuka and skygazer weren't theater if they weren't totally bogged down in the mech POV; neither one is a hard push based on read but more of a "this is the best way to play this and anyone can see it regardless of my alignment." It looks pretty hard to fake aside from that pretty big issue where you don't really need to engage either one on a deeper level because both are basically mechanically necessary lynches.
If you are scum this game, that is basically the narrative I think.
The other thing is that I don't find nearly as many posts by Egix that bother me like I do with your posts. I mean, he does have 1/4th of your posts, so that's obviously one reason there's fewer things that will jump out. It's also that his writing style often feels hokey so things that would bother me a lot from other people ("Looks like we got ourselves a faker") doesn't bother me nearly as much from me from him here. But still, your ausuka townread, buying ausuka's claim, and setting up a mislynch on Exilon all feel really random to me. I guess partly that's just me having looked at Ausuka's claim and feeling like it seemed like bs from the start so you coming in with a "yeah that sounds" right is like ???
Obviously there's factors that suggest you're town as well, such as Ausuka's reaction to each of your pushes feeling a lot more like Ausuka's reaction to Exilon's push, and Ausuka basically having a very muted, flat response to each of Egix's votes on her. That and forgetting HRG was scum today which was... interesting, but I know you don't like me mentioning the dumbtells even if they're still part of the overall picture (either way, since some of them do seem to be pushing it).
Yes, my preference in 5-way was Egix-->Urap. Exilon was my pocket town and that's why I thought bob saying Exilon was his pref was "spicy" since that is the one of the three of you I have been saying was town the entire game. I didn't realize how much bob was ignoring my reads and instead going purely off his discussions with garmr in the mason PT which, I guess I should have played around. That and telling you both to unvote, but basically you had both voted for exilon, he hadn't said a preference between you two, and I was *just* starting to talk about how various people's reads had developed over the game.
Like, skitter and inferno both scumread you early, inferno townread you d2 then died, skitter townread you pretty much only coming out of the mechanical talk coming out of the push on ausuka. She consistently said egix's iso was easily fakeable and was bothered by him being too agreeable , but she also openly admitted that your playstyle was difficult for her to process. There's also certain things I think she was right to scumread you for on day 1 and it's not totally implausible for me that she more stopped scumreading you because you knew an effective set of strategies for manipulating her read of you rather than because she was actually wrong from her day 1 impressions.
Garmr thought that "you deserved to win as scum" which is always terrible omen for town when people start saying it so I kinda just want to throw his reads out the window in my mind
CDB had decent reads but he had doubts about you, even though he had you as town and egix as scum
bob had... almost phenomenal reads this game, he very succinctly summarized the towncase on you and the scumcase on egix in day 5 (which is why I was NOT expecting the exilon hammer), but he also kept saying that he wanted to "go back to his early reads" when his early reads actually included a scumread of you so... yeah that happened.
ruirui also didn't "like your pushes" but he was dead too fast to say more than that
So to be clear, while you have been universally townread by the townblock post day 4, days 1-2 literally everyone in the graveyard at some point said they had concerns about your slot even if you weren't one of their stong scumreads.
And unfortunately VCA and NKA provide me very little information, so mostly what I have from dead people is them saying they scumread you early in the game and townread you later in the game. But for many you were outside the PoE because they believed Exilon was scum. If they knew that Exilon was town, then I have to ask myself, how would they evaluate you vs. Egix.
Egix, if scum, has played a very conventional scum game that is well within his range as a scum player, although he made one very surprising decision (deciding to bus Ausuka on day 2) which is atypical for his scum play. Egix, if town, has played an unusually strong towngame but not an impossibly good one, although he seems weirdly disassociated for how strong his reads have been this game if town. His level of passivity this game also goes very strongly against his towngame, where he tends to react to specific posts and then push slots due to like one thing, whereas here he's spent more of the game sheeping and then sitting on wagons all day.
You, if scum, have done some very impressive theater with Ausuka and Skygazer and have wildly expanded your scum range. You, if town, have spent a significant chunk of the game hard defending Ausuka as a scum slot, until you did a massive push... after the slot was already practically doomed due to me and skitter both scumreading Ausuka.
The problem I'm having is that, looking at the big picture, Egix should almost certainly be scum here. Looking at the broad strokes, Egix is quite scummy. But when I read his iso, he doesn't really scream scum to me, and I can find no shortage of wolfy or questionable posts in your iso. Conversely, Ausuka and Skygazer's interactions with you are much harder to see as s/s than the muted, softball interactions between egix and ausuka. So in terms of broad strategy and associatives, egix is scum every time. In terms of individual posts that read as scummy, you are very scummy and egix... not so much. This leaves me with something of a problem given that only one of you is scum.
If I go to lazy reasoning, then we have wim and dumbtells, which strongly point to you being town. The wim thing is hard to say though, given you getting townread by skitter might have warped your meta in a significant way. But I also don't feel like you really stopped posting just because she started townreading you so... hmm. And the dumbtells could be due to cognitive load from playing as scum and trying to keep straight what you're informed of or not.
I'd say I'm still somewhere between 55% Egix scum and you 55% town but you have so many early wolfy posts that I find it very difficult to want to throw down a hammer with those odds. Like your push on sashaddin just reads so gross to me, your townread on ausuka I can't see where you're coming from in the early game, and I really hated the sashaddin hammer, the shade on exilon, and the exilon vote. The "auto" stuff also bugs me. There's a lot of very specific things I don't like in your iso, whereas with Egix its more... "well, he seems to have a very flat affect and is like mechanically analytical whereas his strong town games he links he seems more excited and almost kinda bloodthirsty" so this kinda reads like he can be scum here even though there's no specific post from him that I can easily point to and say "thar be scum"
Oh yeah, Exilon also thought Ausuka spewed Egix scum which fit his solve anyway, so actually I think the strongest advocate of Egix scum and you town is the guy you lynched yesterday LOL
Exilon was one of the few people on day 1 consistently calling you TvT with Inferno and he was one of the strongest supporters of Egix scum (i.e. 1043)
if you're 55/45 now, i think we both agree that you're so far into this that there's no one post or set of posts that's going to bring you to a point of comfort in your decision.
you've done your due diligence. I think you should hammer one way or the other.
idk, I feel like more time I give it the more time there is to evaluate towntells or give scum a chance to slip.
It's harder in 3-way because of the mecahnical lock between you two (kinda why I wanted this to be more how 5-way went so then I could talk with bob directly about things).
Like looking back on Exilon's case on Egix, one thing that bothers me is that 205 and 206 are fencesitting, but they're also 15 minutes apart, which suggests to me that Egix either was really reviewing the games or at least wanted to put on a convincing show of doing so
but Exilon is right that 165 and 167 are weird and the movement to 233 is a bit surprising
I'm inclined to agree that 233 is, on the whole, kinda a scummy post. But it was also the "slam dunk" post that made Exilon so sure on Egix for most of the game but I'm just not nearly as sure as he is.
In comparison, I feel like I understand skitter's problems with you in 196 a lot more. It also bothers me how you twice did the "oh and one more townread" post, first with bob and then with Ausuka as you do in 323 and 324. I can very easily see you repeating that behavior (throwing an extra naked townread after two short reads townreads) to obfuscate your reads as scum post-flip, and I can see that as obfuscating behavior slightly more easily than I can see it as snap reads reactions
It really bothers me that in looking at Exilon's case I can get why he didn't like Egix on day 1 but I also don't feel like it's nearly as much as a slam dunk "this is a scummy post" as skitter's reaction to your Sash vote even though skitter didn't hard scumread you for it just because of that one post
still can keep thinking about bob's arguments, probably keep playing with that tomorrow.
In post 2520, Detective Pikachu wrote:In comparison, I feel like I understand skitter's problems with you in 196 a lot more. It also bothers me how you twice did the "oh and one more townread" post, first with bob and then with Ausuka as you do in 323 and 324. I can very easily see you repeating that behavior (throwing an extra naked townread after two short reads townreads) to obfuscate your reads as scum post-flip, and I can see that as obfuscating behavior slightly more easily than I can see it as snap reads reactions
I'm sure i do this in town games. if you still want to put in more effort you might go confirm that
In post 325, u r a person 2 wrote:CBY could be scum. I don't have a lot of experience with them but I think I expect better questions. This is based on the time they were active, btw, I don't think there's a good argument to be made here for an activity tell considering they have not been active on site
I can still see 1056 coming from scum very easily, didn't do the town meta review of urap yet and still want to think more about bob's case arguments on egix associatives.
Egix it is not easier to reevaluate you with you basically just vanishing from the thread fyi, we're not like pressed for time but we are over the halfway mark here and I am starting to reach the point even for me that I wanna just hammer you and call it a wash if you do somehow flip town
