Mini Normal 1357: Game over.

[Robbnva]

pacman, do you always suck up to people?


I actually 2nd KL's request that nobody should hammer until konowa posts

[Konowa]

I am curious why at the end of tl;dr Hoopla named me a prime suspect, but offered no analysis of me at all.

Based on relations I pointed out multiple times D1, I think at this moment KL is likely scum, but I want some talks with Hoopla.

[Konowa]

The above is me giving benefit of the doubt to pacman's soft claim.

[KageLord]

Lol I wonder who will be most surprised when I flip town. I also hope blinker has access to the dead QT so I can ask him about the buddying deal.

[Konowa]

blinker's flipping scum does increase the likelyhood of you [KageLord] being scum. Question is though, am I really ready to dip into that cup of kool-aid? Interactions from known scum to unknown are more WIFOMy than most.

The absolute void of information from VE makes Hoopla that much harder to read as there were no blinker/VE interactions.

[Konowa]

Not a big fan of NK analysis as it is too much theory.
"Natalie's entrance" reads to me as nothing but an attempt to confuse town as much as possible.

Vote: Hoopla

[evilpacman18]

God and then you wonder why I think you're scum.
Robbnva, no but this game is different.

[Konowa]

Explain.

[Drchrist]

Not a big fan of NK analysis as it is too much theory.
"Natalie's entrance" reads to me as nothing but an attempt to confuse town as much as possible.

I'm not really sure how you see that part of the wall of text this way. If anything, this is the most useful piece of analysis on Hoopla's part- there's really no way to know night kill motivations for certain, but scum-natalie's actions with her head on the chopping block are possibly the best true evidence we have right now.

[Konowa]

You are confused.
I am not reading Hoopla's wall wrong.
I am giving my opinion on Natalie's entrance and basically throwing it away.

Hoopla needs to talk more at this point.

[Drchrist]

Claim: VT

I would appreciate it if you would wait for a Konowa post before hammer though. I'm surprised at the read of Konowa as a prime suspect too. Looking at his relation to blinker alone makes him look really town to me.

Probably my final scumlist (just so I can say I was close at the end): xvart, Robb, Hoopla. Pacman's claim of proof that he's town intrigued me and even if it turns out to be bogus (which I'm 50-50 on), I don't think it's a scum move to claim it. Drchrist just makes too many town-motivated moves for me to believe it's an act. Looking Robb's D1 over in relation to blinker makes it seem possible that he is a buddy that went from soft poking to a soft bus to trying to connect other people to his doomed buddy. I think the reason I had him as town before had a lot to do with his telling people I was L-1 and not taking the easy hammer to me early. It was probably bias making me think that those actions instantly made him town.

This post somewhat shrinks my suspicion of KL for 2 reasons:
1: He claimed VT- he's clearly a sinking ship and if he were scum I would think his only out here might be a PR claim
2. The scumlist: implies that he knows the game will go on past his lynch, that is, he is town.

...With this post in mind, I'm not exactly sure I want to lynch KL today. Hoopla can do whatever she wants, but we still have 12 days left and we have time to consider other suspects. I honestly think KL's VT claim makes him less likely to be scum than any other would have.

[evilpacman18]

Explain.

Based on relations I pointed out multiple times D1, I think at this moment KL is likely scum, but I want some talks with Hoopla.

Not a big fan of NK analysis as it is too much theory.
...

Vote: Hoopla

Talks, huh?
Maybe you're one of those misguided souls who thinks that putting a vote on someone pressures him into being transparent. But let's be honest. Is Hoopla gonna get lynched today? Not by a long shot. So what good is your vote? You people and your compulsive need to have a vote down wherever someone said something you don't like. It's ridiculous.

[Konowa]

You've been wrong quite alot this game pacman.
Let me play how I want to play. If you feel what I am doing is scummy, fine.
Otherwise, quit with the condescending attitude.

[Robbnva]

@ pacman - why is hoopla a longshot to be lynched? Last i checked she wasn't obv-town and neither was her predecessor.

[Hoopla]

I am curious why at the end of tl;dr Hoopla named me a prime suspect, but offered no analysis of me at all.

Based on relations I pointed out multiple times D1, I think at this moment KL is likely scum, but I want some talks with Hoopla.

I think having some talks might be difficult, given you've dismissed my nightkill analysis, which is at the core of how I've narrowed down my suspects pool.

As far as I'm concerned, I can only see the final scum being you, Kage, Robbnva or Drchrist. Kage and you make the most sense based on Natalie's reads post. You also don't see much value in using that post as key information, so I get why you don't understand where I'm coming from. I've been planning to look into each of the four of you in a more traditional way, so you'll get some more analysis soon.

I will say xvart's 227 post on Kage is very solid and given he is a town read, I place stock in it. This is why I'm leaning toward Kage over you right now.

Here's a question: Why haven't you questioned a couple of players that have called you obv-town today without reason, but have questioned me when I consider you a viable partner?

[Hoopla]

This post somewhat shrinks my suspicion of KL for 2 reasons:1: He claimed VT- he's clearly a sinking ship and if he were scum I would think his only out here might be a PR claim2. The scumlist: implies that he knows the game will go on past his lynch, that is, he is town.

Right now, if Kage is scum, he needs to live until the final two players - his situation would be extremely grim. What PR do you think he'd claim that would survive until and through LYLO? He can't claim an investigative role for obvious reasons, and do you really think if he claims Doc or RB, he wouldn't be lynched if somehow scum didn't kill him for two nights in a row? Claiming VT doesn't provide much hope either, but in the event he can somehow defuse his wagon, it wouldn't be a death-sentence. This tell is usually more relevant on D1 or D2 of a larger game, where scum have much more incentive to try and eke out a couple more days of survival.

2. Any halfway competent scum knows to make a "final thoughts" sort of post for one final attempt to look town.

I don't think either of these tells are meaningful.

[KageLord]

As far as I'm concerned, I can only see the final scum being you, Kage, Robbnva or Drchrist. Kage and you make the most sense based on Natalie's reads post. You also don't see much value in using that post as key information, so I get why you don't understand where I'm coming from. I've been planning to look into each of the four of you in a more traditional way, so you'll get some more analysis soon.

I will say xvart's 227 post on Kage is very solid and given he is a town read, I place stock in it. This is why I'm leaning toward Kage over you right now.

So the scum is among 4 of the other 6 players in the game. Good to know. Especially since it's possible you'll have only one townread tomorrow (if xvart or pacman die tonight).

I don't get why Konowa and me make the most sense though. You say me because Natalie listed me as a scumread and you, for some reason, think she's good enough to not be completely transparent (completely transparent meaning all scumreads are town). I get that. But then why Konowa? Konowa wasn't listed as a scum read. In fact, how Natalie voted for ABR suggests that she thought Konowa was town (she said ABR would try to get Konowa lynched D2). The only other living scum read of Natalie's is... you. Weird how your train of thought also incriminates you. Also weird how Natalie would put her supposed scumbuddy (me) as her second scum read instead of the person she FoSed.

xvart's 227 is so solid that he gave no response to my counterevidence of his main points against me. He said he'd respond later, but hasn't posted since. I hope he gets to do it before I'm lynched.

[Hoopla]

Alright, rereading through Day 1, blinker's interactions definitely need analysing. He seems like a passive, novice sort of player, that are usually fairly easy to pick apart their motivations. A couple of people picked up on it early, but his post 23 was pretty unusual for a page 1 post, especially now that we know he's scum. He seems extremely defensive of the possibility that Kage might come under pressure, and the fact he pokes into why Kage/ABR looks like a scumpair could be because he knows this pair is false, which enables him to make an argument that is correct. I don't know why I missed this post first time around, but it's pretty condemning given the sort of player blinker looks like.

Initially I thought Konowa's early pressure on blinker would have had to have been a super hard bus, but after looking it in context, it's possible that if Konowa is scum, it was only early distancing at first, and then may have got trapped on the wagon when others started piling on. To explain, his page 2 on blinker was the first and he provided decent reason for a page 2 vote - I'm not prepared to given Konowa town credit for this action, as when playing scum, early distancing is a relatively common tactic if you can get away with it. You obviously don't want to create a large bandwagon, but it's difficult to ignore something you see as scummy from them.

Konowa then goes on V/LA for a little while, and the wagon is all of a sudden up to L-2, which isn't exactly the ideal position to be in if he's scum - his early distancing has now effectively locked himself into the wagon. The towniest thing that Konowa did in this sequence of play was to declare intention to still lynch blinker - he did this without procuring suspicion on other players too, which scum often like to do. When there is a chance that their buddy will be lynched D1, providing alternatives for themself is a sensible and common play - it looks more like you're scumhunting and also provides an out.

Konowa and blinker's back-and-forth between post 50 and 51 seems lucid and sincere - when you consider how reactive and defensive some of blinker's posts are, this interaction doesn't seem fabricated. It looks like blinker is genuinely trying to explain himself, and I don't think he'd be so convincing when he knew the inquiries from Konowa were bullshit to begin with. Konowa also ramps up the pressure here, not giving blinker any rope, so looking at the early play, this freezes my Konowa suspicion somewhat.

~~

Looking at Robbnva, his early focus on umoms could easily be construed as avoiding having to make an early stance on blinker when he's under pressure - scum typically try avoid committing too heavily either way on their buddy in such situations. A strong scum or strong town read is very polarizing and unintuitive because it looks obvious, so responses like focusing on another player instead, casual jabs at someone else like in post 59 to create alternatives for the town, and mild suspicious/interrogation on the buddy like post 60 are all viable responses as scum to the situation.

Meanwhile, also on page 3 around the same time as Robbnva's posts, Drchrist beats Robbnva to a blinker vote, right when the umoms/blinker metric is in the balance. I think this is a protown play, as it makes the wagons equal at 3-3, as opposed to skipping umoms ahead 4-2. If it's a bus, it's an aggressive one, as that vote has a lot of influence in swinging the direction the town takes.

Robbnva takes the wagon to L-1 a little while later, so if there is bussing involved, I'm inclined to believe it's this vote, particularly when he found a way to get off the wagon again at some point. Konowa continued to romp blinker's wagon to the finish line with some aggressive posts - he really was tunneled on blinker throughout D1, which could be construed like he already knows the result, but it certainly isn't as likely as Kage or Robbnva being scum based on the early play.

~~

After my second read through the game and taking more disciplines into consideration, Kage still remains my prime suspect, but Konowa is eclipsed by Robbnva for my second suspect, like so;

Kage
...
Robbnva
...
...
Konowa
Drchrist

[KageLord]

Kage
...
Robbnva
...
...
Konowa
Drchrist

At least you've seen the light on Konowa. Now if we can get xvart right up there above me, we're in business. Or at least put him between me and Robb.

[Hoopla]

Well, lets see what xvart has to say before I consider making a hammer vote.

[Robbnva]

@ hoopla

Looking at Robbnva, his early focus on umoms could easily be construed as avoiding having to make an early stance on blinker when he's under pressure - scum typically try avoid committing too heavily either way on their buddy in such situations.

rblinker wasn't under any pressure at all when I voted umoms. He had 1 vote on him. last I checked 1 vote =/= pressure

A strong scum or strong town read is very polarizing and unintuitive because it looks obvious, so responses like focusing on another player instead, casual jabs at someone else like in post 59 to create alternatives for the town, and mild suspicious/interrogation on the buddy like post 60 are all viable responses as scum to the situation.

how was post 59 a casual jab and who was I jabbing? I was clearly commenting on the fact that umoms posts and ignores direct questions, I do that to blinker also during this game.

regarding my post 60 - it can only be mild interrogation of a buddy if I were scum, which I am not. I noticed very distinct paranoia in his posts and in my mind, a townie should never have to be paranoid.

Meanwhile, also on page 3 around the same time as Robbnva's posts, Drchrist beats Robbnva to a blinker vote, right when the umoms/blinker metric is in the balance. I think this is a protown play, as it makes the wagons equal at 3-3, as opposed to skipping umoms ahead 4-2. If it's a bus, it's an aggressive one, as that vote has a lot of influence in swinging the direction the town takes.

how does Dr "beat" me to a blinker vote? I'm confused here.

Robbnva takes the wagon to L-1 a little while later, so if there is bussing involved, I'm inclined to believe it's this vote, particularly when he found a way to get off the wagon again at some point.

I put him at L-1 because an entire week went by and we only went less than 2 full pages. blinker was posting on site and umoms had legitimately flaked (hence the replacement) I had detected paranoia in his post and combined with the fact that now it seemed he was avoiding our game, I made the switch.

when a game is stalling - lynch all lurkers.

[evilpacman18]

when a game is stalling doesn't it mean the majority of people are lurking?

[Robbnva]

Quite a few were laying low or were inactive. When you move 2 pages in a week, that's a slow game.

[evilpacman18]

Admittedly, I'm not part of the solution. I'm waiting for a KageLord flip. It's that point in the game where there's a good chance this is endgame right now. If KL flips scum, sweet, free win, if KL happens to be town, well then I'll get back to work. So someone lynch him already.

[Hoopla]

If xvart doesn't show up soon, I'll place the hammer.