Mini Game 2

[groza528]

ahem:
[quote=Omega]Everyone would be ridiculous not to vote out Sketchwick this round. He's in three of those four mafia combinations...so the odds are good that he proabably is one[/quote]
[quote=ALSO Omega]I'm not quite sure what you just meant poki, but look, I play this game mostly on intuition. Its too easy to get caught up in logic for me and miss something obvious, so I try not to.[/quote]
In the first quote he's saying it's [i]logical[/i] to vote for Sketchwick because Sketchwick has a 3/4 chance to be Mafia [b]based on spreadsheets[/b]. His second quote seems to COMPLETELY contradict the first! Sounds like a Mafia-type thing to do.

Now let's take a look at VinnyQ. The first night he found cubestudent to be guilty. Cubestudent, was in fact, innocent, but we did not learn that until the end of day 2. The second night he checked Miriyami. He did not reveal his results, but claimed he was 'pretty sure he knew what he was." If he got guilty, he could be 'pretty sure' he was paranoid. Looking at the possible combinations in poki's post, he probably isn't paranoid (definitely since I know I'm not Mafia, but you won't buy that yet.) That means either he's an insane cop that thought he was paranoid (permutation 4) or an insane cop that knew he was useful but wanted to get more info first (permutations 2 and 3).
Enter Miriyami, who claims to have extensive training in logic. If she were Mafia she would know Vinny was sure of her guilt. She'd definitely kill him. If Miriyami were NOT Mafia then why wouldn't the Mafia kill mikegoo? He was the only living known innocent, and Vinny served more purpose alive, as suspicion could be cast on him. That means Miriyami is likely (in my mind) to be Mafia. Checking poki's post again, we see that Miriyami and Omega COULD both be Mafia.

Now then, let's look at today's events. Miriyami and Omega seem to believe Sketchwick is Mafia. That doesn't seem too extraordinary. More specifically, they both seem CERTAIN he is Mafia. Upon examination, we see that if either of them were truly innocent they COULD be certain he was Mafia; still, it strikes a bit of a dissonant chord. It seems too coincidental that they are the only two ready to vote. Also, Omega presumably didn't know at the time that if he were innocent Sketch would have to be guilty, as poki had not yet posted that.

Almost finished, just a few little things to wrap up:
-Omega has taken a silent spell, which normally is associated with Mafia lurking
-Miriyami kept herself in the her spreadsheets, not putting one's self above suspicion is usually a good Mafia tactic. I know, I almost won a game by legitimately voting for myself as Mafia.
-Any of the three Miri, Omega, and Sketchwick HAVE to be naive if not guilty. With mikegoo presumed naive we would have quite a few naive cops.

That's my analysis. Miri and Omega are Mafia, and they're trying to get us to lynch Sketchwick before we realize what's going on. [b]vote: Miriyami[/b]

[Omega]

Groza, you knew I'd have to refute your post. First off, I believe I have been posting as of recent. Also, when I did appear to be on a silent streak, I was gone, and I didn't get my email notifying me of a new board, so I just thought the original board was down.

Also, maybe you misread what I wrote, actually I don't think I made it clear. Its not like a completely throw out logical information that's been placed before me. I look at it to see if its going to help me any. Then, based on what I see, I go with my intuition as to how to play. I don't stay and harp on other things when I have already made up my mind. That's what I meant by not getting caught up in logic.

So yes, I admit it, I was quick to vote, but that's becaust its not going to change. Lynching is still based on other people voting, and y'all can hold your votes as long as you want, but mines not changing.

[poki]

This is where it gets difficult for me. All of you have said things and acted in ways that can look like mafia.

Another mafia tactic that I have not seen mentioned yet is to try and make it look like you are aligned with known innocent players.

I am going to re read the thread and see who has tried to show a likeness to mikegoo and myself - among other things.

Funny enough - from memory, Sketchwick stands out for doing this.

Anyhoo. Will thinkabout it a little more and will vote tonight. I am leaning towards Sketcwick at the moment as the circumstancial evidence is starting to stack up. That may change.

[MiriYami]

I see, Groza, that you've left out one little fact: Mikegoo is not necessarily naive. I believe that that is why he was killed -- because he needed one more investigation to prove his usefulness, which would definitively implicate you and Sketchwick as mafia. Any other combination of mafiosos would have had much less reason to kill Mike, as only one, if any, of them would have been implicated by his usefulness. In fact, it would have made my mafiahood *less* likely, as it would mean only one of three rather than two of three would have to be mafia (the preponderance of naive cops if mikegoo isn't useful and is dead). (It would also have made Omega's mafiahood less likely for Mike to be useful.) The only way in which it would have implicated me was if Mike had specifically investigated me *and* I were mafia.

However, with you, it is more useful to kill Mike, as it makes at least one innocent *more* likely to be mafia *and* it keeps him from proving his usefulness.

Therefore, as you and Sketchwick are the two potential mafiosos who gain the most benefit from Mike's death, I will

fos: Groza

because there is *less* evidence against you. I will also:

Vote: Sketchwick

based on the preponderance of evidence against him. Had Mikegoo been proved useful, Sketch would have been proven guilty.

In terms of Vinny's claim, I don't quite know what to make of it. *I* know that he got the same result for me that he got for Cube; he may have thought that made him not useful because of independent suspicions he had and therefore thought he'd eliminate himself rather than letting a useful cop get killed.

[Sketchwick]

As I've posted already, I'm happy to

vote MiriYami

or omega.

sketchwick

[MiriYami]

Mmm, and I get voted for because I have hit on the truth. The truth hurts, doesn't it, Sketch?

[poki]

It is also very possible that VinnyQ received the wrong results. It is only because we posted the results of our investigations that I discovered that I had been given wrong information.

It is also rather obvious that groza528 and Sketchwick are trying to appear like they are protecting each other.

Then again, I think Sketchwick and MiriYami are arguing quite stridently with each other - they are also voting for each other - a good mafia tactic.

gawd, I have spent too much time thinking about this already.

You lot have chosen up sides into Sketchwick/groza528 v MiriYami/Omega. The mafia are not going to be that bleeding obvious. On the other hand... we have 4 people pretending to be naive. Bleeding obvious = confusion all round.

I may as well post my suspicions now as I am definately going to be dead in the morning. I think the remaining two mafia are Sketchwick and MiriYami.

Vote: Sketchwick

If I am wrong, sorry for losing the game. If I am right - yipee, die scum. I made my final decision based on the same logic used by cubestudent way back on day one - Sketchwick is in 3 out of 4 possible combinations of mafia.

[poki]

Oh yeah - this struck me as strange also:

Mmm, and I get voted for because I have hit on the truth. The truth hurts, doesn't it, Sketch?

(Don't bother explaining what you meant - I know what you meant, it just struck me as being very out of context and a downright weird thing to say at the time, considering that he had said that he was planning to vote for you before you posted).

[mole]

Sketchwick is taken outside and shot. He was another mafioso.

Well done! Send choices for the fifth and final round...

[groza528]

(it really is me, just too lazy to find my new password from my email)
oh shit
good thing we got one
bad thing I spent so much effort defending him

[poki]

*poki wanders into a mostly empty room*

*hello.... hello? Anybody about?*

*all she hears is the echo of her own voice*

Call me little miss impatient - can we get this game finished sometime soon?

[mole]

Fortunately for poki, the last round is about to start now.

Unfortunately for her, she won't get to play in it.

poki (Cop) - killed by the mafia.

Lynch the last mafia member, you win. Lynch one of the two Cops, you lose.

[poki]

Thanks mole

[MiriYami]

Woo hoo, we got ourselves another mafia...now we just need to find the last one.

Hmmm...good stragegy mafia, now we have little (logical) idea who is or isn't mafia.

Well, I'll start here: I know I'm not mafia. I can't prove it, but I have been constantly sharing and using serious logic and therefore I think that it is less likely for me to be mafia anyway.

Now, Groza or Omega. Both have been relatively quiet; Groza, however, has been more quiet. Also, in analyzing things, I realized that Groza is somewhat more likely to be mafia. If I am mafia, there is only one arrangement of everyone else's roles; same for omega. However, if Groza is mafia, then there are two possible arrangements for everyone else's roles, making him twice as likely statistically to be mafia.

And then there's his last post.

oh shit
good thing we got one
bad thing I spent so much effort defending him

Why was his first reaction to say oh shit? Why did he not first react with happiness? I know I did. If he's a townie/cop, he'd be happy that we're that much closer to winning. At this point we can't afford for someone to take a hit for the town, but if we could he should be happy to do so if he's a cop.

Lastly, I don't believe the mafia would have chosen to have two of their players play the same kind of cops; it makes them stand out too much. Sketchwick played a naive cop and IS played a useful cop (sane, sorta), so I suspect that Groza is the last mafia because he is playing paranoid, while both Omega and I are naive.

However, as appears to be our tradition now, I will hold my vote until we've discussed properly.

[groza528]

In my own defense, I claim the slot of the 'slow cop' that posted a while back (or did I use 'last cop?' Barely remember.) Of course you have no reason to believe me. I don't know which of you is Mafia, it worked so much better when it was both of you My hunch is that it's MiriYami, but we all saw how well my last hunch worked out.

[MiriYami]

Hmmm...I vaguely remember that, and I also looked at my suspicions list from a while back and saw that it contained sketch, IS, and omega.... I am completely unsure what to do.

Omega, have you anything to say for yourself?

[MiriYami]

Got my selection in. ;I am certain poki is right, but like groza said, we shouldn't vote until we get info from everyone

In fact, Groza, it looks like I have very little reason to believe you at all, unless someone can show me that it was indeed you, posting as unregistered and not signing your post and, in fact, quoting yourself to agree with yourself.

Very suspicious behavior.

But I'd still like to hear from Omega before I vote, though it has been almost 48 hours and no response and I really *would* like this game to end before I leave for school today.

so, Omega, are you not around or something? Hello?

Anyone? Anyone? Beuler?

[groza528]

Fine, lynch me then, and perhaps mole will tell you afterwards that it was me who was the slow cop. I was trying to avoid breaking any rules by not giving any indication who I was. It isn't the first instance of someone agreeing with themself under a different name; in the GL, Drama Queen (Borodog) said 'Does anyone besides Borodog have any real reasons for their choices?'
Omega, it would be nice to hear from you again before we're forced to lynch you just to finish the game.

[MiriYami]

Okay, Groza, I didn't vote for you, I just said you were suspicious. And I still think you are suspicious, but I'm even more suspicious of Omega right now for being so unobtrusive the whole game (which has proven to be a winning mafia tactic in most of the games I've played in, until people started calling them on it). So, Omega, if I don't hear some reasonable defense soon, I will be forced to vote for you.

[MiriYami]

Okay, the heck with it. I'm gonna

Vote: Omega

for his failure to appear. I'm unsure of who is mafia; both have been suspicious at one time or another. Of course, others think that I've been suspicious too. So my vote is mainly in the interests of ending this game already.

Anyone else want to cast a vote?

[groza528]

If I vote Omega and he's innocent, I can blame him that the town lost for going MIA in the last round. If, however, I vote for Miri and SHE'S innocent, I will be at fault for postponing the game until the Mafia scum returned. I'd rather be wrong about Omega. And mine is the worst logic I've ever heard in the last day of a Mafia game, but I don't care anymore

Vote: Omega

[MiriYami]

So, mod, what's the verdict?

I think at this point we all just want this game to end.

I mean, minimafia3 has been done for something like two weeks now...but oh well.

Did we bag us some scum or were we being led by the nose?

[Omega]

Mole, I realize that the final votes have been cast and I haven't posted in over a week, but I would appreciate at least a chance to defend myself.

I have been out of the country the last week, in Mexico to be exact and have been about the farthest away from an internet connection that one can be.

If my vote were to matter...I would

vote: Groza

simply because I believe him to be the final mafia. No other reason or logic than that. I realize that I wasn't very smart in disappearing without saying anything for a week, but...if given the chance (mole)...I would ask Miriyami to look and ask if she was voting for me simply because I didn't respond or because she really thought I was mafia. I wouldn't ask that of Groza, obviously because I'm voting for him.

I know you have no reason to change your votes, but just ask yourself why you voted to way you did. I realize everyone wants this game over with, but do you want to have wasted all this time on a hasty (well not so hasty, cause I was gone a week, but you get the idea) decision. My life...and this game is in your hands Miri and mole. That's all I can ask.

[mole]

I'll give you 24 hours to change your minds if you want... :)

[MiriYami]

Hmmm...

Well, with Omega back, with a halfway-decent reason for disappearing (have you any pictures as proof? If so then it's a very good reason), I will state a few things.

1. I had Omega on my list of suspicious-by-activity.

2. Groza is the person statistically most likely to be the last mafia, but that doesn't prove anything.

3. Omega's post is less-than-incriminating because I don't think a mafia would have gone away without saying bye first, to avoid just such a situation, but at the same time, he could have asked our mod to wait for him, or known that our mod is the type to wait (and wait and wait) for that last person to show up to complete the game.

Hmmm...with pondering, I will

vote: groza

as that is what I wanted to do earlier but i had no one to do it with.

Let's hope the statistics are right this time.